I Have a Coaching Favorite, and His Name is Gus Bradley

Lovie Smith interviewed with the Eagles on Thursday and left without a contract. At this point, unless there's a mystery candidate out there that we haven't heard of, it seems likely that the team is waiting on one of the playoff coordinators. Among that group, the guy I'm by far the most excited about is Gus Bradley, the Seahawks defensive coordinator. We've already read some of Monte Kiffin's praise for his former assistant. Here's more:

"He really is exceptional," Kiffin, now USC's defensive coordinator, said in a phone interview. "You could tell. He's not just a really, really smart coach; he's got a great personality. He connects with the players really well.

"He reminds me of (Steelers coach) Mike Tomlin. We hired Mike at 29-years-old out of the University of Cincinnati. It didn't take long to know that Mike was special, and I knew from Day 1 that Gus was special. He'll be a head coach in the NFL. He's got no panic. Some people do, it doesn't mean they're not really good coaches, but Gus, he's special. When he interviews, he'll knock your socks off. I'm not trying to pump him up, but I know what he is. He's put it on tape up there."

Let's go Falcons, let's go!

As The Coaching Carousel Turns

Playoff football was upstaged this weekend in Philadelphia as the Eagles coaching search stretched into a second week. While the Packers took care of Joe Webb (remember him?) and RGIII suffered a horrific and entirely foreseeable injury, all eyes in Eagles-land were looking toward Chip Kelly.

Kelly flirted with three teams, taking interviews with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, and the Eagles. Although the Browns have tried to distance themselves in recent reports, they clearly were all in on Kelly. Joe Banner made a full-court press to get him and came up short. The Eagles, while less committed to Kelly, certainly had him high on their list. They conducted a 9-hour lunch with Kelly on Saturday, which is easily the most absurd job interview description I've ever heard.

Ultimately, I think it's sad for the NFL that we won't have Kelly coaching in 2013. There's far too much talk about whether or not his offense could work at the professional level, instead of embracing the excitement of something new. Whether Kelly will ever coach in the NFL is now a serious question. He had his pick between three teams in different situations and chose to remain in Oregon instead. That's fine. There's a lot about the school that beats coming to Philly, especially in terms of control and lifestyle. There's no reason to draw broad conclusions about the Eagles job, as some have done, just because Kelly turned them down. I wish him all the best and hope that someday he finds a situation that feels comfortable. Those doors will always be open.

In other news, the Bills actually hired someone, Syracuse coach Doug Marrone. To me, he was a nice backup option, but nothing more. Like Steve Sarkisian, Marrone has turned around a school with awful recent history and made them respectable. He finished his four seasons at Syracuse with a 25-25 record, a major improvement from their 10-37 record under previous coach Greg Robinson. Still, the team plays in an increasingly makeshift Big East and his fourth season -- an 8-5 bowl-winning one -- wasn't so impressive. Marrone was offensive coordinator under Sean Payton with the Saints for three years prior, but how much of that offense was set by Payton? Fine hire, but I'm not sad at all that the Eagles didn't get a chance to interview him.

The Eagles are scheduling interviews with other people right now. Bruce Arians, the Colts offensive coordinator, missed that team's first round playoff loss because he was admitted to the hospital with nausea and headaches. Hopefully all is well with him, but I'm not in love with his candidacy either. As someone who started coaching football in the late 1970s, Arians is no young man (a decade older than Marty Mornhinweg). He has bounced around over the last decade as offensive coordinator in the NFL, but only started to get serious head coaching consideration this year when he filled in admirably for Chuck Pagano. Arians is riding high based on that goodwill, but the Colts were one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory. When you step back and dispassionately assess the situation, there's nothing that stands out as particularly promising about him..

Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, on the other hand, is a new name that sounds much more promising. The skinny on Bradley is simple. First, look at Sunday's game. After allowing 14 points early to the dangerous Redskins on Sunday, his innovative hybrid defense tightened up and didn't allow another point. No wonder the Seahawks are ranked fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Second, read what Monte Kiffin had to say about Bradley when he recommended him to then-Seahawks coach Jim Mora Jr. back in 2009:

"Monte says, 'J.L., listen to me. I have got a guy here in Tampa that is one of, if not, the finest football coaches I have ever worked with. He's an A-plus. He's a once-in-a-lifetime coach. You need to talk to him,' " Mora recalled. "He said, 'J.L., this guy is special. You have to bring him in. You have to talk to him.' "

Finally, watch Bradley lay into his defense on the sideline. Wouldn't it be fun to have a coach with that much fire on the sidelines in Philly? The 46 year-old only arrived in the NFL in 2006 after spending 15 years in the FCS college ranks (i.e. Division I-AA), but everyone praises him. You can read much more about Bradley here and here and here. As long as he can hire an experienced offensive staff, there's much to like about his candidacy.

Photo from Getty.

The Path Forward

The Eagles lost to the Redskins last Sunday, setting up an easy narrative about Robert Griffin III and the future. The Eagles need to find their RGIII, and they need to do it fast. But finding that one can't-miss prospect is exceedingly difficult. A preliminary look at the 2013 draft class says that none of the quarterbacks are at the level of a Griffin or an Andrew Luck. Geno Smith seems likely to be the first one drafted, but he may go before the Eagles get a chance at him.

After that, what other options will the Eagles have? Certainly there will be other prospects worth considering. Lesser talents perhaps, but if you get the right one... Aaron Rodgers was drafted later in the first round, Drew Brees in the early second. It's possible that the Eagles could succeed going down this route.

But the key lies not in trying to replicate the Redskins' success at betting it all on one quarterback. It worked spectacularly with a player like RGIII, but that's no guarantee. Plenty of teams have tried that model recently and failed, because they wish-casted success upon a young quarterback who never blossomed into a true franchise guy. Look at the Jets, who saddled Mark Sanchez with a long term deal before he actually proved he could be a good quarterback. Making a move like that can set your team back years.

No, the path I would really like the Eagles start down next year isn't the Redskins model (although absolutely draft Smith if you can). It's the Seahawks you want to look at. In 2011, Pete Carroll didn't have a quarterback he could trust. Tarvaris Jackson was the starter, and he posted the 25th-best DVOA in the league. Carroll went out and signed Matt Flynn, the Green Bay backup, to a 3-year, $20 million contract. If he had handed the job to Flynn, that would have been a mistake. But Carroll then grabbed Russell Wilson in the third round and put the two quarterbacks into open competition.

Obviously, things have worked out splendidly. Wilson won the job, and has improved into one of the better quarterbacks in the league (4th in DVOA). But it was the overall strategy that should be credited and emulated. Carroll didn't go all in on Flynn or Wilson. He made smaller bets on each and let them play it out on the field.

Some people in the Eagles community want the team to jump in with Nick Foles next year. That's crazy. The rookie has shown some fleeting promise and ability, but nothing that tells me he's a sure bet in 2013 or beyond. The way forward isn't to jettison him for someone else, necessarily, but it's about hedging your bets by signing and drafting as many promising quarterbacks as you can get your hands on.

Draft a quarterback early and late. Sign somebody in free agency. Trade for a promising backup. Rinse and repeat. You're never going to be able to compete for the Super Bowl until you find your one franchise guy. Might as well cycle through as many potentials as you can until you do. The financial cost of doing so is less than the opportunity cost of sitting pat with one player, Foles, who is statistically unlikely to ever become an elite quarterback.

The worst thing that can happen, going forward, is that you don't bring in competition for Foles and he falls apart. Then you've set yourself a year or more behind in the rebuilding process. Bringing in more quarterbacks only increases the odds of success that one of them -- even Foles -- will turn out well. And heaven forbid that the Eagles might end up with multiple valuable quarterbacks. What a horrible outcome that would be.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: Why Even Try?

After last night, it seems pretty clear that the Eagles have hit the low point of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach. The only question now is whether you have any hope that he can turn things around. I assume many of those folks who have stubbornly supported Reid over the last few games are starting to change their minds, but we’ll find out.

7.9 = Vince Young’s interception percentage this season. For comparison, Mike McMahon had a 3.9 percent interception rate in 2005. I’ve never seen a team get four second half possessions, and give the ball away in three of them. If Michael Vick is out again, Mike Kafka will undoubtedly get his chance next week.

57.9 = Young’s completion percentage this season, worst season of his career. What happened to quarterback gurus Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg?

6 = Two game stretches when Reid has had a worse point differential than the last two games. It’s one thing to get blown out by New England, but Seattle?

1 = Torn ACL for Colt Anderson. It’s not fair that one of guys who consistently plays the hardest had such a career-threatening injury in a meaningless game.

137.0, 6.7 = Tarvaris Jackson’s QB rating and Marshawn Lynch’s yards per carry from last night. What was that about the Eagles defense improving?

133 = Total yards from scrimmage for LeSean McCoy. Bright spot!

0 = Emotional reaction to yet another embarrassing loss.

Photo from Getty.

Enjoying his Salmon and Coffee/Latte Cap

Smash the hipster!

Week Thirteen
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
8:20 pm EST on NFL Network

Also, bonus video! The Whiskey Saints basically show us the Eagles season in three minutes:

Eagles Bravado Not Striking the Right Tone

You play to win the game. Corollary: if you don’t win, show some humility.

On Monday, Trevor Laws talked to Reuben Frank about the upcoming game against Seattle. “Watching the film, I think it’s an easily winnable game,” he said. “If we play our game, we should blow these guys out. That’s just how I feel.”

One might dismiss Laws’s words as a single player speaking off the cuff, not to be taken too seriously. But that would be to ignore the many other quotes from players over the course of the season, who’ve made similarly confident assertions about this Eagles team. Even right after Sunday’s debacle, I watched Asante Samuel assert that they were still a “really good team.”

It’s unclear if the players are delusional, overly cocky, or both. Any team that’s closer to a top five draft pick then to the playoffs should realize and admit that they just aren’t as good as as they expected. These quotes flew when it was early in the season and we still thought the losses might be an aberration. Not anymore.

It’s time to fess up to the disappointment and display some humility. Rather than boast about how “easily winnable” the upcoming game appears, look in the mirror. Most Eagles fans I know can “easily” see another loss as the Eagles head west on Thursday.

You were just embarrassed at home, and the fans that weren’t calling for your coach to be fired were headed to the exits a quarter early.

Save the talk about blowing other teams out for another season.

Photo from Getty.

Handicapping Kevin Kolb's Next Team

There’s still the long shot possibility that the Eagles don’t trade Kevin Kolb. They could always keep him as a back up and then franchise/trade him after next season. But there’s really no reason not to pull the trigger as soon as the lockout is lifted.

The situation is actually fairly analogous to last year’s decision to trade Donovan McNabb. Sure, the team could have kept McNabb another year, but his value would have only declined and their leverage in trading would have only decreased. The Eagles maximized their return and moved on to the future. I expect they’ll do that again as soon as possible.

Here’s a breakdown of Kolb’s possible destinations, starting with the least likely.

Packers, Steelers, Jets, Bears, Patriots, Falcons, Ravens, Saints, Colts, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Giants, Chargers, Rams, Lions, Texans, Cowboys: I can’t invent a realistic scenario in which any of these teams were ever in the market for Kolb. 100-1 odds for the whole group.

Jaguars, Vikings, Titans, 49ers, Bengals, Panthers: All of these teams would have been contenders, but are effectively wiped out by their high selections of quarterbacks in the draft. At most they’ll need a caretaker quarterback, but there are better options for that with Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme, and others soon to hit the market. 9-1 for this pack.

Raiders, Dolphins, Redskins, Bills, Broncos: Jason Campbell, Chad Henne, Rex Grossman, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton. If you were an NFL general manager, would you be comfortable relying on any of these quarterbacks? I certainly wouldn’t. But none of them seem like particularly good bets for Kolb at this point. The Raiders don’t want a West Coast guy, the Dolphins only want a challenger for Henne, the Redskins aren’t dealing with the Eagles again, the Bills seem content with Fitzpatrick, and John Elway already has three QBs competing in Denver. 7-1 for all five.

Browns: Tom Heckert and Cleveland were linked to Kolb a few times last offseason, and now they’ve added former Eagles quarterback coach Pat Shumur. Plus, they have an extra 2012 first round pick. A match made in heaven! Apparently not. After NFL Network’s Mike Lombardi stoked the flames of a possible deal, the Browns moved quickly to put them out. Perhaps they want to give Colt McCoy a full season tryout before they move on. 7-1.

Seahawks: Another team supposedly interested in Kolb last year when the Eagles wouldn’t trade him, Seattle still hasn’t resolved its quarterback issues. Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t been a starting-caliber QB since 2007 and Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t inspire much confidence as a replacement. Let’s peg them at 3-1 odds.

Cardinals: Arizona is the front runner for Kolb because, despite probably the worse group in the NFL (Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton), the Cardinals have done absolutely nothing to remedy their quarterback situation. Nor have they really expressed any even token support for the players on their roster right now. They know they need a solution, and aren’t even trying to prove otherwise. At this point they’re probably 2-1 favorites for Kolb.

Disagree? Let the debate rage in the comments.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

The Updated Odds on McNabb Destinations

A lot of quarterback moves in the NFL since free agency began. The Seahawks got themselves a new, if unproven, quarterback of the future. The Browns exchanged two mediocre quarterbacks for two more. In fact, 15 of the league’s 32 teams have made some sort of change at the position.

So with all that change, some have suggested that the market for McNabb is drying up. Maybe to a degree, but there are still a number of teams who still seem like they would be interested at the right price. It’s been awhile since we last examined the options. Let’s give them a quick look, in rough order of likelihood:

• San Francisco 49ers — I still think the 49ers repesent the most likely destination for McNabb. They have the need, the means, and a demonstrated interest. With Kurt Warner’s retirement, San Fran is a good quarterback away from being the class of the NFC West. The defense is solid, the offense has talented playmakers from Gore to Crabtree to Davis. Last year, the Niners made a strong push for Warner — and despite their declarations of support for Alex Smith and commitment to David Carr as a back-up, McNabb would be a huge upgrade. Additionally, the team has two first round picks (13 and 17), which makes McNabb’s price tag feasible. Even McNabb would probably be happy there. The only big question I have is how their chaotic front office situation will affect their decision-making process.
• Buffalo Bills — I can see where McNabb would be hesitant to go up to moribound Buffalo, but the Bills are one of the few teams actually broadcasting a need for quarterback. Coach Chan Gailey and company have been open to the idea of a trade, and the team has already been burned twice by mediocre draft picks.
• Jacksonville Jaguars — Jack Del Rio has not been quiet about his disappointment with current starter David Garrard, and McNabb would be a big step up. He (or Michael Vick) would also boost attendance figures.
• Carolina Panthers — While the team is outwardly fine with going into 2010 with Matt Moore as their starter, that still would be a large risk for a coach and front office on the hot seat. Also, Moore is the only quarterback with any experience on the roster. Trading for Vick as a back up and possible challenger might make more sense, but McNabb could immediately put them back into playoff contention. They don’t have a 1st round pick, which hurts their chances at McNabb, but also at getting a QB of the future.
• Minnesota Vikings — Only jump back in to this discussion if Favre decides he’s not coming back, which seems like a longshot from here.
• Cleveland Browns — They’ve got two veterans for back-up/keep-the-seat-warm duty while they groom a mid-round QB prospect who catches Mike Holmgren’s eye.
• Seattle Seahawks — Found their guy in Charlie Whitehurst, apparently.
• Arizona Cardinals — McNabb’s dream destination appears to be a competition between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.
• Denver Broncos — Kyle Orton is the present. Brady Quinn (gag) is the future.
• Oakland Raiders — Don’t really see McNabb ever approving a trade to Oakland.

Certainly there are a lot of teams now out of the running. Sound off in the comments where you think McNabb will end up, if anywhere.