Too Easy: How The 49ers Crushed The Eagles Run Game

Last year, the Eagles led the NFL in rushing by a sizable margin, despite routinely facing extra defenders in the box who loaded up to stop LeSean McCoy and the deadly zone-read attack.

This year could hardly be more different. On Sunday against the 49ers, the Eagles rushed the ball 12 times for an anemic 22 yards, the fourth-worst performance in franchise history since 1970. And this was against one of the least-stacked defensive fronts the Eagles have faced since Chip Kelly took over.

See for yourself. Here's how the Saints lined up against the Eagles to start the playoff game last year:

Even against a three-wide receiver look, the Saints dropped their second safety down into the box to combat the run, giving them seven defenders against six blockers. The Eagles faced stacked defenses like this all year -- and still bullied their way to 5.1 yards per carry.

By contrast, here's the predominant defensive alignment the Eagles faced on Sunday:

We're in No-22 territory here, but you don't need the overhead angle to see what's going on. On 1st and 10 in the beginning of the second quarter against what's supposed to be one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL, the 49ers only put six defenders in the box and dropped both safeties at least 15 yards down-field.

Kelly normally salivates over this kind of defensive front. He has six blockers on the line against their six defenders -- a numerical advantage. Plus, Kelly can tip the scale further in his favor by having his quarterback read one defensive end, giving his offensive line and tight end a six to five hat-on-hat advantage. Last year, McCoy would have gained 20 yards before being touched.

You can re-watch the play yourself on Game Rewind, but it was not pretty. Forgoing the read-option for straight hand off, the Eagles ran what I believe is a Power Play. David Molk and Dennis Kelly blocked down on the defensive tackles, Todd Herremans and Brent Celek double-teamed the end, and Matt Tobin pulled to lead McCoy into the hole.

Some watchers have criticized LeSean McCoy recently for dancing in the hole, but there wasn't much of one here. As McCoy charged in, both Molk and Kelly were pushed back into his face. Meanwhile, the 49ers left defensive end split his double team. McCoy was tackled for a one yard gain.

EDIT: Fran Duffy over at PE.com looked at the same play in his weekly All-22 post.

This happened over and over. The 49ers didn't do anything special. They just played the exact opposite of every defense the Eagles faced last year: kept their safeties back in a prevent look and dared the beat-up offensive line to open holes for McCoy man-on-man. And the Eagles failed, over and over again.

There are a number of conclusions to take away from this. The first is obvious: bringing back Lane Johnson against the St. Louis Rams better improve the offensive line in a hurry. If the Eagles can't create running room when they have a numbers advantage, this is going to be a long season.

There are broader questions too. Can Nick Foles and the wide receivers step up and win games on their own? Any quarterback is going to struggle when he has no consistent run game or pass protection -- and especially when neither is the result of a concerted effort by the defense to stack the box and/or blitz. Last year opponents tried to stop McCoy and dared Foles to beat them through the air. San Francisco was one of the first teams to challenge the young quarterback with extra defenders in coverage.

Foles has been inconsistent through the first four games, showing an indecisiveness we didn't see during the team's miracle run last year. He double clutches too many balls and his long throws have been inaccurate. But he doesn't share all the blame. While Maclin has stepped up more than almost anyone expected, he still doesn't have the breakaway speed to get separation on deep routes. And Riley Cooper, lord of the drops, has a putrid 5 yards per target.

Also, at some point in the offseason Kelly trashed (or at least mothballed) the zone-read part of his offense. You see Foles keep the ball every now and then, but the Eagles have largely abandoned any effort to constrain the defense with that threat. A running quarterback could punish the light defensive front the 49ers played so often on Sunday. For now, with Foles, the Kelly offense has lost one of its great weapons -- a third dimension that wins games when all else fails.

The run game should improve when the offensive line gets healthy, but if not, we'll see how long that decision holds.

Long Road Ahead

The Super Bowl takes place this weekend, and the Eagles will not be participating. Breaking news, everyone.

But in all seriousness, this is the height of the sport, and the Eagles are far, far away from getting back there. Let's just take a moment to realize how far. Look at the 49ers roster and try to think of players on the Eagles who could start for the NFC Champs. It's a short list.

On offense, San Francisco has two quarterbacks who are better than anyone on the Eagles roster. They have an athletic freak of a tight end, and two Pro Bowlers on their mauling offensive line. 2011 Jason Peters could play for them, but not sure you take the 2013 version over Joe Staley. Evan Mathis, the Eagles' best offensive lineman in 2012, is probably a notch below former first round pick Mike Iupati. I would take LeSean McCoy over Frank Gore, certainly. And DeSean Jackson beats old Randy Moss. But that's all.

Moving to the defensive side brings an even worse comparison. The 49ers have two of the best linebackers in the NFL, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. They also have two Pro Bowl pass rushers, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith, and both Pro Bowl safeties, Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. I love Fletcher Cox and maybe he can sneak in on the defensive line if we're being generous, but that's all.

That's three players -- make it four with Alex Henery over the dearly departed David Akers. You'll get the same results if you compare the Eagles to other championship teams, even the 2004 squad that made it to the Super Bowl. You wouldn't be able to sneak many 2013 Eagles on to that roster.

All of which is to say: this isn't a quick-fix job, it's a long-term rebuilding process. Set your expectations accordingly.

Photo from Getty.

Head Coach Search Diary: Greg Roman

Who will replace Andy Reid in 2013? With this season spiraling out of control, that's one of the few relevant questions left to ponder. As such, I hope you'll indulge me in an ongoing series discussing potential top candidates for the Eagles head coaching job.

Who Is Greg Roman?

The 40-year-old San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator has popped up on the radar for possible NFL coaches recently. A native of Ventor, NJ, Roman was reported as a finalist for the Penn State job that went to Bill O'Brien a year ago and has been mentioned for a few other jobs. He graduated in 1993 from John Carroll University in Ohio, where he started for two years on the defensive line. Two years after he left, he got a job as the strength and conditioning assistant/defensive quality control coach with the expansion Carolina Panthers. He toiled in grunt work for the Panthers for seven years, moving to offensive quality control coach, then offensive assistant, and finally assistant offensive line coach.

Roman then left to reunite with former Panthers head coach Dom Capers with the Houston Texans. He started as tight ends coach in 2002, then moved to quarterbacks coach in 2004. Roman coached David Carr from 04-05, with little to show for it, and was canned with Capers after 2005. He caught on with the Ravens for two years back as assistant offensive line coach, before Brian Billick was fired after 2007.

After a year in exile, coaching at his high school alma mater, Roman was tapped by Jim Harbaugh to work for him at Stanford. His job title was bizarre (Tight Ends/Offensive Tackles/Running Game Coordinator), but Roman was a key figure in producing two years of top pro-style offense, the first centered on running back Toby Gerhart and the second on quarterback Andrew Luck.

When Harbaugh jumped to the 49ers, he brought Roman along as offensive coordinator. The San Francisco offense was only 18th in DVOA last season, but Roman and Harbaugh were the first coaches to make Alex Smith into a viable starting quarterback, by simplifying the game. They made it to the NFC championship game in their first year with what Harbaugh called "a Greg Roman offense." This year they promoted Colin Kaepernick to the starting lineup, utilizing college spread concepts and the pistol formation to build a completely different offense that currently ranks 5th in DVOA.

Why Hire Greg Roman?

There are a few solid reasons to consider Roman. First, I'm not sure there's been a more successful coach anywhere in football than Jim Harbaugh over the last four years. In turning around two moribund organizations, he has won more than 75 percent of his games while Roman has been on board. It would be nice to benefit from the lessons Roman learned during that time.

And while Roman is still young, his offensive flexibility has been impressive. One Niners blogger described hearing players call Roman an offensive genius and "mad scientist." The results speak for themselves — in college or the pros, with Smith or Kaepernick. Whether the Eagles end up developing Nick Foles or another young quarterback, Roman's ability to adapt his scheme and add new wrinkles would be helpful.

Why Not Hire Greg Roman?

While youth can be an asset in head coach hires, my biggest question with Roman is that he may not have enough top-level experience. That he has ridden Harbaugh's coattails straight to the top is one of his best selling points, but it's also a weakness. We don't know how much the success is due to Harbaugh rather than Roman. He has 15 years of NFL experience, but most of that was spent bouncing around as a lowly assistant. Only the most recent two were as a coordinator. Before Harbaugh rescued him, Roman was forced to spend a year coaching high schoolers. (Note: Roman said he had multiple offers to return to the NFL.)

Final Thoughts

Due to his success in San Fran, Roman is a natural finalist for any head coaching job. I hold strong reservations along the line noted above, but similar things could have been said about Andy Reid back in the day. If Roman came to the interview with a clear plan in hand and demonstrated leadership and management smarts, that would go a long way toward convincing me that he's ready to run a team of his own.

Photo from Getty.

What Does the Danny Watkins Promotion Mean?

Geoff Mosher of The News Journal reports today that Danny Watkins, the Eagles first-round pick this year, will replace Kyle DeVan as the starting right guard this Sunday against Buffalo for his first NFL start.

This is big news for Watkins, obviously. After the Eagles gave him every chance to start in the preseason, Watkins looked completely unprepared to start. There were certainly limiting factors. He was hurt by the lockout and a brief holdout, both of which prevented him from making the transition to the NFL as fast as possible.

Still, at 26 years-old, Watkins was supposed to be NFL-ready when he arrived in Philly. The fact that he didn’t even dress for three out of the first four games strikes major doubt into estimations of Howie Roseman’s drafting, especially when the starter DeVan was so bad. Pro Football Focus pegged DeVan with the blame on both 49ers sacks, as well as four QB pressures last week. Meanwhile, the offense couldn’t buy a first down in short yardage. But really, how much did the Eagles expect out of a guy they pulled off the street a week before the season started?

With this news, we’re left wondering if Watkins was promoted due to his own progression or because the Eagles simply had no other choice. The jury is definitely still out on Watkins, and I’m not ready at all to write him off just because he couldn’t start right away. But I’m leaning toward the second option for two reasons.

First, nothing has really changed since Sunday when the Eagles decided that Watkins wasn’t good enough to put on a uniform. He couldn’t show sudden progress in practice just a day or two later. The only thing that happened recently was the coaches reviewing the game tape and seeing how bad DeVan was against the 49ers.

Second, promoting Watkins mirrors a move the Eagles made just a week ago, when they officially promoted Nate Allen to the starting lineup. Another high draft pick, Allen had been dogged with injuries but also looked completely out of his element in the preseason. He wasn’t inserted into the lineup because he healed or because he suddenly fixed his problems. No, it took a tackle “attempt” by Kurt Coleman against the Giants. Since that point, Allen hasn’t exactly looked like a stud, either.

The Eagles figured that if they’re going to get beat, it might as well be with the guys they’ve recently invested top picks in. As such, the countdown to Jaiquawn Jarrett’s promotion begins… right now.

Photo from Getty.

Of Breast Cancer and Horror Films

I really don’t get it. At least save this stuff for the Cowboy game the night before Halloween. Right?

Week Four
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

Juan Castillo's Last Chance

There is little question in my mind that Juan Castillo, much like the young linebackers he has thrust into the spotlight, simply isn’t ready for primetime. So far there has been nothing to suggest that Castillo can game plan effectively to utilize his great defensive line and shutdown corners or minimize his personnel weaknesses.

Thus, this Sunday’s game is a must-win for the defensive coordinator. If he can’t bottle up the anemic San Francisco offense, Castillo deserves to be fired posthaste.

Let me detail for you just how bad the 49ers offense is. According to Football Outsiders, they have the second-worst pass blocking offensive line, the worst starting running back in Frank Gore, and no wide receiver with more than seven receptions. Alex Smith is the 25th-best quarterback in the NFL, just behind Bengals rookie Andy Dalton.

The 49ers have exactly one serious offensive weapon: Vernon Davis, the athletic tight end who has twice the receptions as San Fran’s next best receiving threat.

Planning to defend and disrupt this offense should be the football equivalent of handing someone a nearly completed crossword puzzle, final word: three letters, “easy as ___”.

Given the Eagles huge advantages against the 49ers wide receivers and offensive line, they should be able to keep San Fran from scoring much more than 10 points. And Juan Castillo has no excuse for letting Vernon Davis or anyone else on that team beat him, even with the problems the Eagles linebackers and safeties have had.

If the Eagles can’t shut this offense down, there will be no more time to let him rearrange a few players here and there. Castillo either wins this week or he’s out the door.

Photo from Getty.

Westbrook Flies Again on Monday Night Football

Lost in the offseason drama at the quarterback position was the departure of another all-time Eagles great: running back Brian Westbrook.

As the season has gone on it has been easy to forget about Westbrook’s absence. LeSean McCoy has been better than pretty much anyone expected, gaining 779 yards on the ground and another 448 in the air to go with 7 touchdowns through just 11 games.

Plus, Westbrook has been practically invisible since signing with San Francisco. At least, until last night, when the former #36 (now #20) rushed 23 times for 136 yards, including a shifty 8-yard touchdown run, in relief of an injured Frank Gore to help the 49ers beat the Cardinals in Monday Night Football…

Dissecting the Recent Rumors on McNabb

There’s been a lot of rumors flying around over the last week. Time to step back and look at them piece by piece. Let’s use Mike Florio’s McNabb magnum opus as a jumping off point, since it seems pretty obvious to me that his source is inside the Eagles organization:

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Eagles are receiving offers from teams that have not been identified publicly at the request of the teams making the offers.  This is happening for two reasons:  (1) some of the teams have incumbent starting quarterbacks who would be confused, to say the least, if they learned that McNabb could be joining the club; and (2) none of the teams want fans or the media to know that they are courting McNabb, in the event that they fail to land him. This doesn’t explain the fact that the Bills, Rams, and Raiders have been named as potential trade partners.  According to the source, however, the Eagles have disclosed to no one the names of the teams with whom they are or aren’t talking.

Put simply, in order for Florio to be so sure there are teams talking to the Eagles that no one has heard of, he has to have talked to someone with the Eagles. Think about it.

First of all, no one could know that there are other teams in the mix who haven’t been mentioned unless they were working for one of those teams or for the Eagles. Since those teams clearly have no desire to make it public, and wouldn’t know there are multiple “teams” interested, it had to have been the Eagles.

Second, only the Eagles have an incentive to get this information out there — true or not. If there are only negotiations with Oakland, Buffalo, etc. than this could give Philadelphia the upper hand. I’m not saying the new rumor isn’t true — there probably are a number of teams who have quietly inquired about the price tag on McNabb. But this is just as self-serving to the Eagles as McLane’s McNabb-to-Rams report.

In any case, who could these teams with “incumbent starting quarterbacks” be? Basically you’re talking about teams that don’t have a mix of quarterbacks (looking at you Oakland), but rather have a nominal starter. This category of teams would probably include teams like Carolina, Jacksonville, San Francisco, maybe even Tennessee.

We initially believed that Jeff McLane’s erroneous report that McNabb could be a Ram by the end of the week was the Eagles themselves, who were floating a phony rumor in the hopes of sending a “speak now or forever hold your piece/peace” vibe to other interested teams.  Based on our source, McLane apparently had a different source.

“Based on our source…” — i.e. “From what the Eagles told me, they had nothing to do with McLane’s report.” And again, I think it’s funny that Florio would discredit the possibility McLane’s report was the Eagles putting out stuff to boost the offers on McNabb, when that’s exactly what his report here does as well!

It’s possible that McLane’s source was McNabb himself, or agent Fletcher Smith.  (McLane’s subsequent report that McNabb prefers playing for the Vikings suggests he has a pipeline into the McNabb camp.)  This approach by McNabb would allow him to push the issue to a head without pulling a Jay Cutler and openly demanding a trade.

Interesting idea. Thought not sure if it’s really in McNabb’s best interest to push a trade to the Rams that hasn’t actually been discussed — unless he’s really just fed up with the whole process and finally wants out of Philadelphia. But this type of analysis treads awfully close to Deadspin’s interpretation.

The McLane report isn’t the only nugget that might not reflect reality.  ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio says that no one is willing to offer more than a third-round pick.  But as our source pointed out, “Has he talked to every team and have they told him their offer?”

Or I don’t know, maybe he just talked to one team that’s interested in keeping the price low… Sal Pal is close to worthless these days.

Finally, the Associated Press reported that the Eagles want the 42nd pick or higher in the 2010 draft.  (And, of course, the AP report was taken as gospel truth because the AP has never been wrong.)  Said the source, “Does anyone really believe the Eagles would pick such a random number and draw a line in the sand?”  We’re told that something higher than this reported threshold already has been offered.  The source believes that the “42 or higher” requirement was leaked by one or more other teams in order to frame the value — and possibly to create local pressure on the Eagles, many of whose fans generally are anxious, to say the least, to see McNabb get run out of town.

First of all, yes, I can see the Eagles saying they want a first round pick or early 2nd rounder (probably plus something extra) for McNabb and not budging. And how exactly does this create local pressure? The fact that the Eagles are asking for a high pick doesn’t sound crazier than anything else — a better way to put the pressure on the Eagles would be to release Sal Pal’s report, or (better yet) say the team would be willing to take a 3rd rounder.

Instead, this basically affirms the stance the Eagles took if they were the ones to leak the 33rd overall pick and FS O.J. Atogwe deal to McLane — they want first round value, and aren’t afraid to ask for it. By telling the AP this, the Eagles front office has essentially told the teams that are snooping around, offering late-second or third round picks to get serious or get left behind. And Florio affirms that the Eagles have in fact gotten an offer “higher than this reported threshold.”

As we understand it, the Eagles have received a variety of offers, with draft picks only and players only and players and picks.  We’re told that the Eagles have never placed an asking price on McNabb.  Instead, they’re doing exactly what we reported in early March that they’d do — sitting back and waiting for the offers to come and evaluating them at the appropriate time.

Ha. No asking price on McNabb. I don’t believe that for one second. Maybe early in the process, but by now the Eagles have to be seriously telling teams, either through the press or in direct talks, that they want at least one high pick.

* * *

By the way, a couple notes on Michael Lombardi’s post yesterday about McNabb and similar rumors:

A team executive told me the Raiders and Vikings are discussing the availability of backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels. Trading Rosenfels would only happen if the Vikings know for certain that Brett Favre is coming back.

The Sage Rosenfels chatter is the most obvious sign Oakland is in serious negotiations with Philadelphia about McNabb. They’re trying to show they can go other directions.

Many executives I talked to last week wondered why the 49ers are not actively pursuing McNabb. With McNabb, the 49ers would be the favorites to win the NFC West. As I often write, the biggest problem in the NFL is evaluating your own team, and the 49ers really believe they’re set at QB.

Agreed 100%. If San Francisco isn’t one of those teams who, according to Florio, are in quiet talks with the Eagles, they truly are incompetent.