Is The Eagles GM Sabotaging Chip Kelly?

I'm starting to think Chip Kelly, our beloved head coach and offensive mastermind, may not be on the same page with the Eagles general manager. In fact, hot take alert here, the GM may be actively sabotaging Chip. Let's examine the evidence.

In 2013, Kelly proved he could take a collection of players drafted by other people and mold them into a successful team. The defense, sure, was a bit rough. But Kelly inherited an offense of Andy Reid's making and turned it into something special. The offensive line dominated, with the left side anchored by two all-pro players, an emerging athletic center, wily veteran at right guard, and a top pick at right tackle. Meanwhile, Kelly's frenetic, quick-strike offensive style was matched perfectly by the dynamic big play duo of DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, who combined for 3,480 yards on the season—including 42 plays of more than 20 yards. Kelly even made Nick Foles, an immobile quarterback with a questionable arm, look like a star.

But I look at the 2015 Eagles, and it seems the GM actively tried to rid Chip of all his best players. He swapped the Foles for Sam Bradford, who costs more and has a terrible injury history. He ditched both of the Eagles' homegrown, in-their-prime dynamic wide receivers for a bunch of unproven youngsters supplemented with empty threats (this week notwithstanding) Riley Cooper and Miles Austin. He flipped McCoy, a shifty home run hitter, for north-south runners, then refused—over Chip's strenuous protests, I'm sure—to put any resources into the aging offensive line that made the whole thing work.

What Kelly's left with is an offense that looks nothing like the type of team he's been successful with in the past. Foles was never a running quarterback, but the current starter can't even execute read option plays for fear he won't survive the next hit. And Bradford doesn't even have the confidence, despite a decent arm, to throw downfield, wasting Chip's proven ability to scheme players open. His twice-a-game realization that there might be open players beyond 5 yards has corresponded with a brief one-quarter offensive resurgence in each game.

The coach probably could have told the GM that the running back position wasn't his limiting factor in the first two years. When defenders shot into the backfield in 2014, McCoy actually made many of them miss and got positive yards. Spending big to get shiny new running backs was much less important than making sure the blockers ahead of them weren't just terrible backups and journeymen. The Eagles GM even had the gall to extend both Allen Barbre and Andrew Gardner, moves which can only be interpreted as a straight up middle finger to his run-first coach.

To be fair, the GM has added talent on the defensive side, bringing it up to average or perhaps even slightly above. But even against weak quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, the unit's flaws are obvious. While the defensive line is shutting out running backs, giving up the 3rd-fewest yards per carry in the NFL, this is a passing league. The pass rush is nonexistent, with a sack rate of just 3.4%, 5th-worst. Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan are disruptive run defenders, but can't get to the quarterback. Connor Barwin and Brandon Graham are solid players but not sack artists. That meant that in the final minutes on Sunday, with Washington marching down the field, the Eagles failed to get any pressure. It doesn't help, of course, that the secondary is still suspect.

When you look at all of it together, it's clear that something needs to be done before the Eagles GM torpedoes our head coach's obvious talent. Fire this idiot, I say, and hire someone who knows what he's doing. Heck, maybe give Chip Kelly a chance to take over player personnel. He could probably do just as well.

How Cutting DeSean Jackson Continues To Hurt The Eagles

The following is an article I wrote that originally appeared in the Eagles Almanac 2015 with the title "Keep Your Options Open: What Chip Needs To Learn About The Cap." It's a couple months out of date, but the larger points remain valid, especially after the discussion of Chip Kelly's value-destroying tendencies as GM made it as far as ESPN radio this week.

One of the most ironic things about Philadelphia sports fandom is how much overlap there is between supporters of Chip Kelly and those of 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie. Sure, on the surface there are plenty of reasons why that might be the case. Both media-shy leaders are smart, ruthless, and seem to have a plan to get their teams to the (eventual) Promised Land. But the comparison breaks down quickly, because Kelly and Hinkie have nearly opposite philosophies when it comes to running a sports team. 

As Sixers fans will be happy to tell you, Hinkie has an incisive understanding of NBA economics. He knows that a championship basketball team needs one or more star players, and is willing to trade anyone and hoard draft picks and salary cap space for the eventual day when he can acquire those stars.

While the jury’s still out on Hinkie's eventual success, one of the GM's best qualities is his full embrace of optionality. What is optionality? It’s the ability to adapt your plans on the fly, to give yourself as many ways to reach your goal as possible. Essentially, it’s making flexibility a priority in long term planning. Speaking to the media in February, Hinkie explained optionality in a way Kelly would love:

“I believe a lot in optionality—a lot,” he said. “I believe a lot in flexible. I believe a lot in making a decision as late as you possibly can to gain as much information as you can… We talk a lot about being a triple-option quarterback. Hold the ball in the fullback’s gut until you read the defensive end. Hold it as long as you possibly can. That is really important in part because you know so much more. Sometimes you don’t. Some of you know exactly what you knew before. Sometimes the world changed and you know a lot more than you did.”

Free cap space and lots of draft picks fit perfectly into this worldview. Hinkie doesn’t want to close any paths to getting a superstar, and wants to maximize the number of chances to get one. It’s why he hasn’t splurged on any players in free agency. Locking the Sixers into long-term contracts at this point is fruitless. There are no meaningful wins to be had now, and more important: one albatross contract could jeopardize the chances to sign or trade for someone great later.

The Eagles are obviously at a different point in their competitive lifecycle, coming off the second of two 10-win seasons. And the NBA and NFL are quite different leagues. But Kelly’s goal as new head of all football operations should be essentially the same as Hinkie’s—maximize the chances for the Eagles to be as good as possible for as long as possible. That requires embracing optionality. Unfortunately, he either has no interest in that strategy or, more likely, has no idea how to execute it.

Let’s talk about how to build a team in today’s NFL. Sam Lynch, cap expert and past contributor to the Eagles Almanac, would tell you that the key to modern team building is that any additionalcap space you have will roll into the next year’s salary cap, granting extra flexibility (read: money to spend) down the road.

Today, that rollover maneuver is institutionalized in the league’s financial rules. Any cap space you have at the end of the year automatically (and legally) rolls over to the next year. If you were $5 million under the cap in 2014, you raise your cap by $5 million in 2015. If you’re $10 million under the cap in 2015, kick all of that into 2016. In real life, the Eagles passed an extra $15.7 million (the result of years of smart moves by Banner and Howie Roseman) into 2015, and thus have the third-highest team salary cap of $159 million. 

That extra cap space represents real optionality, providing the ability to make moves down the road that would benefit the team. Other franchises haven’t preserved that flexibility. For example, the New Orleans Saints rolled over less than $2 million from 2014, and were so constrained by the cap that they had to trade All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham.

The takeaway is that cap space today is the same as cap space tomorrow, as long as you aren’t directly up against the limit. Signing bonuses that stretch cap hits over the life of a contract now are functionally the same as roster bonuses that take the hit entirely in year one. Whether you use $10 million in cap space today or $2 million each year for 5 years, it makes no difference because everything rolls over continuously.

If the structure doesn’t matter for cap purposes, the total guaranteed money does. The more money you conserve today, the more you have tomorrow, the more flexibility you preserve for future free agent deals and contract extensions. Guaranteed money represents the total cost you can’t avoid if something goes wrong. It represents a constraint on your ability to pursue other options. Fully guaranteed base salaries are also major warning signs, especially after the first year. If a player gets injured or becomes otherwise replaceable, you’re likely still stuck with him just because you’re paying him no matter what.

Roseman understood this. As Sam Lynch wrote in our 2013 Almanac, that year’s free agency acquisitions—Connor Barwin, Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, Patrick Chung, etc.—were targeted and relatively frugal. The team guaranteed all salaries and bonuses for the first year, an easy thing to do for starters, but limited the guarantees thereafter. The Eagles’ commitment to these players in year two and three were basically options they could pick up or discard at will.  

If Hinkie were a football GM, or if Roseman were still calling the shots, I suspect the 2015 offseason would have looked much different. In fact, many of the biggest moves of the last two Kelly offseasons would likely not have happened. Let’s discuss some of those moves, and explain how Kelly managed to destroy tremendous optionality and waste valuable resources—both money and draft picks.

CUT: DESEAN JACKSON

No need to reopen old wounds. Jackson was always a polarizing player and annoying off-the-field personality, but he was (and continues to be) a bona fide speed demon wide receiver. The main argument (made by reasonable people) at the time of his release was that Jackson’s salary was simply too high for his production. In 2014, he was to be paid $10.25 million, a top five salary at his position. Certainly that’s expensive, but not unreasonable for a 27-year-old coming off an 82 reception, 1332 yard, 9 touchdown campaign. 

But beyond its initial cost, the contract was tremendously favorable to the Eagles. The salary actually decreased in 2015 and 2016, bringing him down to 15th-highest paid receiver territory. But most important—there was zero guaranteed money left on the deal. Jackson, a three-time Pro Bowler, was locked up through his most productive years, until age 30, and if at any time he lost a step or couldn’t play, he could be cut without penalty. That’s solid value—and better optionality.

Releasing Jackson and receiving nothing in return was already value-destroying. But it gets worse because this type of decision compounds. With Jeremy Maclin recovering from a torn ACL, Riley Cooper needed to be re-signed—the Eagles guaranteed him $8 million more than Jackson had coming to him. As discussed, such a multi-year guarantee locks you in to keeping a player. In 2015, 75% of Cooper’s $4 million base salary is guaranteed, making him virtually uncuttable. So the Eagles are stuck paying their fourth-string wideout like the 35th-best receiver in the league—and keep trotting him out on the field to justify the investment, even after it’s clear he stinks.

Moreover, the Eagles had to replace the discarded young talent. They traded two picks to move up in the 2014 second round to draft Jordan Matthews, then added Josh Huff in round three. After Maclin left in free agency—a loss that hurts more without Jackson in the bag—the Eagles guaranteed another $1 million (and $2.3 million total salary) to Miles Austin, a 31-year-old who’s likely to be the fifth-stringer and play little special teams. Oh, and they used another high pick, their first round selection, to take Nelson Agholor.

Count it up: not only did the Eagles miss Jackson on the field in 2014, but they spent more than $12 million and four high draft picks (in total the equivalent of the #8 overall pick, according to the classic draft value trade chart) to replace his production. Instead of filling a new hole, that money and those draft picks could have been used to shore up the defense, an actual weak spot.

EXTENDED: DARREN SPROLES

Trading a fifth round pick for Sproles last offseason worked out great. It was one of Kelly’s best moves, as Sproles was a difference-maker in multiple games. But what about that contract extension? The Eagles immediately gave Sproles, who was due to be a free agent this season, $5.5 million in guarantees to extend him through 2016.

Given Sproles’ production last year, it’s easy to support this move. But think it through. The Eagles are giving a 32-year-old running back $3 million this year (half guaranteed) to be their third-stringer. He’s paid like the 18th-best running back in the NFL (AKA a starter), despite being only a role player.  Sproles played just 29% of the team’s offensive snaps last year, a number that will only decrease in 2015. Not a huge error, but far from an efficient use of resources.

TRADED: LESEAN MCCOY

SIGNED: DEMARCO MURRAY, RYAN MATHEWS

Let’s stick with the running back position. Everyone talked about how backs at McCoy’s age (27) decline and how his high cap number made him expendable. But McCoy’s contract was remarkably similar to DeSean Jackson’s: expensive, but with no guaranteed money left at all. If you like Kiko Alonso, you can defend the trade. But the Eagles had exactly what you want for a star running back in his late twenties: flexibility.  No guarantees meant that the Eagles owned three one-year options on their franchise leading rusher. As long as he performed, he’d be paid. As soon as he stopped performing, he could be jettisoned.

It was reasonable to cut expenses in the backfield while adding a high-ceiling defensive piece. But the moves that followed made it insane. McCoy would have been the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL this year. Now Murray is. Worse, Kelly traded McCoy’s nonguaranteed year-to-year deal for Murray’s $18 million full guarantee. Murray, who is six months older and with a worse injury history, has guaranteed portions of his salary through the next three seasons, including the full $7 million in 2016 and $2 million in 2017. Anyone who ripped Shady for his potential decline should be livid over this much worse allocation of resources.

Oh, and the icing on the cake: another backup running back—the most replaceable position in the NFL—guaranteed $5 million in full guarantees over the next two seasons.

TRADED: NICK FOLES

RECEIVED: SAM BRADFORD

This trade was laughably one-sided. If he recovers from nearly two full seasons missed due to injuries, Bradford may (may!) be better than Foles. But is he $11.4 million and a second round pick better? Think about how we’ll feel next offseason, regardless of how both players perform this year. That additional money doesn’t help the team retain or acquire a franchise quarterback for 2016, Bradford or otherwise. And the second round pick in 2016 had the potential to be another Zach Ertz or Jordan Matthews-caliber player. The long-term value squandered here for a smidgen of upside this season is immense.

EXTENDED: DEMECO RYANS

Ryans is a 31-year-old middle linebacker coming off his second Achilles tendon rupture, with little to offer going forward. The Eagles traded for Alonso and still have Mychal Kendricks. They could have cut Ryans and saved $6.8 million in cap space to be used later (the benefit of his year-to-year nonguaranteed deal). Instead, Kelly gave him $4 million guaranteed (signing bonus + salary) to stick around for a year. Ryans is being paid the 15th-highest salary in the NFL at the inside linebacker spot for spot duty on early downs. That’s expensive leadership—and does nothing to fill another upcoming hole in 2016, when the Eagles likely let Kendricks walk. (Note: thankfully, after this was written, Kelly extended Kendricks. Still doesn't explain keeping DeMeco, though.)

CUT: EVAN MATHIS

Releasing Eagles lifer Todd Herremans didn’t bother me. $4 million saved with his release was a win, especially since the soon-to-be 33-year-old was beginning to look his age. Mathis was a different story. Twitter’s favorite Eagle was almost 34, but still appeared in great shape coming off back-to-back Pro Bowls. He was owed $5.5 million in 2015, not a cheap sum. And he wanted more. But Chip held all the cards in that negotiation. No other team was going to give a guard of Mathis’ age so much coin. He could easily have forced Mathis to play out his year-to-year contract again in 2015. Instead, Kelly petulantly cut his starting left guard and opened a gaping hole in his already shallow offensive line. 

We could go on and talk about some of the smaller moves, like guaranteeing multiple years of salary for special teams players, but the point has been made. Time and again, Kelly has proven that he cares not for value or flexibility in his deals. He’ll cut players and get nothing in return. He’ll throw extra draft picks into trades and pay for past performance instead of maximizing flexibility in the future.

Overall, Chip seems to see cap space as a resource to spend, and guaranteed salary as a reward rather than the shackle it can be for future roster maneuvering. Instead of maximizing flexibility in his decision-making, he implicitly dismisses the benefits of such a strategy. These are the moves of a man who doesn’t care about the long term. He wants what he wants when he wants it (generally right now), and when that costs too much and things don’t work out, what does he care? 

Which leads us to our final ironic note: that the one person in the Eagles organization with the most optionality at this point is Chip himself. If at any point his grand experiment doesn’t work out, he’ll exercise the option he always has: to go back to college.

Too Easy: How The 49ers Crushed The Eagles Run Game

Last year, the Eagles led the NFL in rushing by a sizable margin, despite routinely facing extra defenders in the box who loaded up to stop LeSean McCoy and the deadly zone-read attack.

This year could hardly be more different. On Sunday against the 49ers, the Eagles rushed the ball 12 times for an anemic 22 yards, the fourth-worst performance in franchise history since 1970. And this was against one of the least-stacked defensive fronts the Eagles have faced since Chip Kelly took over.

See for yourself. Here's how the Saints lined up against the Eagles to start the playoff game last year:

Even against a three-wide receiver look, the Saints dropped their second safety down into the box to combat the run, giving them seven defenders against six blockers. The Eagles faced stacked defenses like this all year -- and still bullied their way to 5.1 yards per carry.

By contrast, here's the predominant defensive alignment the Eagles faced on Sunday:

We're in No-22 territory here, but you don't need the overhead angle to see what's going on. On 1st and 10 in the beginning of the second quarter against what's supposed to be one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL, the 49ers only put six defenders in the box and dropped both safeties at least 15 yards down-field.

Kelly normally salivates over this kind of defensive front. He has six blockers on the line against their six defenders -- a numerical advantage. Plus, Kelly can tip the scale further in his favor by having his quarterback read one defensive end, giving his offensive line and tight end a six to five hat-on-hat advantage. Last year, McCoy would have gained 20 yards before being touched.

You can re-watch the play yourself on Game Rewind, but it was not pretty. Forgoing the read-option for straight hand off, the Eagles ran what I believe is a Power Play. David Molk and Dennis Kelly blocked down on the defensive tackles, Todd Herremans and Brent Celek double-teamed the end, and Matt Tobin pulled to lead McCoy into the hole.

Some watchers have criticized LeSean McCoy recently for dancing in the hole, but there wasn't much of one here. As McCoy charged in, both Molk and Kelly were pushed back into his face. Meanwhile, the 49ers left defensive end split his double team. McCoy was tackled for a one yard gain.

EDIT: Fran Duffy over at PE.com looked at the same play in his weekly All-22 post.

This happened over and over. The 49ers didn't do anything special. They just played the exact opposite of every defense the Eagles faced last year: kept their safeties back in a prevent look and dared the beat-up offensive line to open holes for McCoy man-on-man. And the Eagles failed, over and over again.

There are a number of conclusions to take away from this. The first is obvious: bringing back Lane Johnson against the St. Louis Rams better improve the offensive line in a hurry. If the Eagles can't create running room when they have a numbers advantage, this is going to be a long season.

There are broader questions too. Can Nick Foles and the wide receivers step up and win games on their own? Any quarterback is going to struggle when he has no consistent run game or pass protection -- and especially when neither is the result of a concerted effort by the defense to stack the box and/or blitz. Last year opponents tried to stop McCoy and dared Foles to beat them through the air. San Francisco was one of the first teams to challenge the young quarterback with extra defenders in coverage.

Foles has been inconsistent through the first four games, showing an indecisiveness we didn't see during the team's miracle run last year. He double clutches too many balls and his long throws have been inaccurate. But he doesn't share all the blame. While Maclin has stepped up more than almost anyone expected, he still doesn't have the breakaway speed to get separation on deep routes. And Riley Cooper, lord of the drops, has a putrid 5 yards per target.

Also, at some point in the offseason Kelly trashed (or at least mothballed) the zone-read part of his offense. You see Foles keep the ball every now and then, but the Eagles have largely abandoned any effort to constrain the defense with that threat. A running quarterback could punish the light defensive front the 49ers played so often on Sunday. For now, with Foles, the Kelly offense has lost one of its great weapons -- a third dimension that wins games when all else fails.

The run game should improve when the offensive line gets healthy, but if not, we'll see how long that decision holds.

Why The Eagles Must Upgrade From Riley Cooper, In One Photo

There's no shortage of opinion when it comes to Riley Cooper, the Eagles' soon-to-be free agent wide receiver best known for his racial outburst at a Kenny Chesney concert last year. That off-the-field incident was itself sufficient reason for many fans to want to see Cooper gone. I'm not going to wade into that moral morass, but rather address the sizable room for debate about his on the field performance.

Cooper had what was obviously a breakout season in 2013. After posting a total of just 46 receptions for 679 yards and 5 TDs in his first three years, he took over the starting lineup for an injured Jeremy Maclin and finished the regular season with 47 receptions, 835 yards, and 8 TDs. Plus, he scored another productive 6/68/1 line in the Eagles' wild card game.

Cooper also put positive tape out there. He's the type of big-bodied blocking wide receiver that Chip Kelly values to augment his running game down the field. And there's a good reason Cooper's stats went way up once Nick Foles took over. He became especially effective on deep throws and in the red zone, where he was adept at adjusting to Foles' occasional errant jump balls. 

Despite all of that good news, I wouldn't sign Riley Cooper to a long term starter's contract. And the biggest reason may sound counter-intuitive: despite the clear QB-WR connection, the more you build an Eagles offense around Foles, the more you need an upgrade from Cooper at wide receiver. Here's the proof, summed up in one All-22 shot (from the very first play of the Saints game):

Kelly talks about his offense in terms of simple math. He wants to run the football and he wants to have a numbers advantage up front when he does so. That means more blockers than defenders in the box, not the other way around -- and there are two ways to achieve this.

The first is to have a dangerous read-option constraint play built into the basic runs. By reading a defender instead of blocking him, the quarterback can freeze that unblocked man and enable better numbers on the play side. The second is to have dangerous wide receiver threats on the outside (ideally spread way outside) that force the defense to respect the passing game down the field. Defensive coordinators can't stack the box and provide help to both corners on the outside at the same time.

As you can see in the above photo, the Saints do not respect Cooper as a passing threat. While both Eagles receivers face man coverage, DeSean Jackson's corner has safety help over the top. The Saints, rightfully, fear Jackson's speed. They don't have that same concern about Cooper, who they're perfectly willing to leave matched up in single coverage at the bottom of the image. The safety whose job could be to protect against the deep ball to that side has entered the box instead. The Saints would much rather add an extra defender down by the line of scrimmage to combat LeSean McCoy and the rushing attack.

Thus, on this play the Saints have a numbers advantage up front: seven defenders in the box against six Eagles blockers. If Michael Vick were in the backfield, that wouldn't be so bad. The zone read can be a powerful weapon if defenders respect it. Foles is never going to inspire that respect. Yes, he can still make it work on occasion, pulling out a few surprise yards here or there, and freezing a confused defender now and then. But the read constraint will not work consistently without a run threat at QB, and therefore the run game will not work consistently against a numbers disadvantage up front.

If Foles is the Eagles' quarterback going forward -- and he has certainly earned that right -- then the offense needs other constraints. The obvious secondary options are wide receivers that the defense needs to respect.** Jackson is half of that puzzle. Cooper is not. The Saints treated him on this play as most defenses did this season, reveling in the opportunity to gain an advantage in the box and daring Cooper to beat them. 

Cooper certainly had a breakout season, with career highs in all categories. But if he were a wide receiver worth spending starter-level money on, he would have consistently beat the single-coverage insult he face on a weekly basis and forced defenses to start respecting him. He did no such thing, and the numbers show it.

Pro Football Focus tracks a stat called yards per route run, focusing on receiver production on all snaps they ran a passing route. Some of the consensus best receivers in the game score highly on this list: the top ten is Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, Anquan Boldin, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey, Andre Johnson, and AJ Green. These are players who combine two important attributes of a top receiver: production when targeted, and a high number of targets.

As I just mentioned, Jackson placed sixth on this list. That was thanks, first of all, to the second-highest yards per target of any receiver in the league: 11.2, only behind deep threat Kenny Stills and a step above all-around beasts Gordon and Jordy Nelson. You may be surprised to know that Riley Cooper also placed in the top ten on yards per target, netting 10.3 yards per pass thrown his way.

But the difference between Jackson and Cooper comes in the number of times they're targeted. Jackson, despite a spread-the-wealth offense and defenses putting heavy emphasis on stopping him, was in the top third most-targeted per route run. But out of 94 receivers with at least 25% of their team's targets, Cooper was a lowly 79th (right next to underperforming slot buddy Jason Avant). Cooper was targeted only 15% of his routes, compared to Jackson's 22% -- even though Cooper faced the single coverage shown above nearly all year.

The split between Cooper's rank in target percentage and his rank in yards per target is extreme, and may make it easier to understand the type of receiver he is. For example, there are certain receivers who were targeted a lot but have low yardage production on those targets. Some are slot receivers, like Cole Beasley for Dallas and Julian Edelman for New England. The others are underperforming #1 wide receivers on bad offenses: Buffalo's Stevie Johnson, Jacksonville's Cecil Shorts, Washington's Pierre Garson, and Tampa Bay's Vincent Jackson. 

Cooper had the opposite problem. He was targeted few times despite solid performance on those targets. What receivers put up that same split last year? Secondary receivers who aren't particularly good, but get single coverage because the defense doesn't consider them threats: the aforementioned Stills in New Orleans, Tampa Bay's Tiquan Underwood, Dallas' rookie Terrance Williams, San Diego's Eddie Royal, Seattle's Doug Baldwin, Green Bay's James Jones, Kansas City's Donnie Avery. As far as the stats are concerned, these are Cooper's most direct comparables, and none of them (with the possible exception of Williams' upside) are players you would be excited to have as a starting wide receiver on your offense.

That's the type of player Riley Cooper is: a replacement-level starter that defenses are more than happy to leave alone to gameplan against actual receiving threats like Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and DeSean Jackson -- and actual running threats like DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy. If the Eagles let Maclin walk in free agency and re-up with Cooper as their #2 wide receiver, you'll hear the champagne popping in defensive coordinator meetings across the NFC. With Foles neutering the read-option attack, Chip Kelly needs wide receivers on the outside who can stretch out the defense and give McCoy room to run. Cooper, for all his other strengths, isn't that guy. And that means you not only don't pay to keep him, but you also actively look for an upgrade.

**One caveat: the offense needs at least one more receiving threat from somewhere. While wide receiver is the obvious play, it's not the only one. In his rookie season, Zach Ertz did finish sixth among tight ends on yards per pass route run. Just saying.

Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

• Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
• Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on. 
• Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
• James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
• Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
• Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
• Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans. 

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

• DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
• Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
• Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
• Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
• DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

• Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
• Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
• Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
• Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
• Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
• Kurt Coleman: Bye.
• Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

• On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
• On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
• Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
• As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

• Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
• Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
• Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
• Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
• Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
• Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

• Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
• Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line. 
• Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
• Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
• Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

• Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
• TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
• Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
• Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
• Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
• Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

Why Nick Foles Is Better Than Ever (But Can't Stay This Good)

I call him SuperNick. The man who threw seven touchdown passes in little more than three quarters of play deserves such a cartoon moniker. But how did "one of the better backups in the NFL" become in one afternoon the guy who plays what "might have been the best three-quarters of a game we've ever witnessed"?

The simple answer is, he didn't. With the notable exception of four horrendous quarters against Dallas where he looked like he sustained a concussion before he ever got to the stadium, Foles has looked good all year. Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg may have the quarterback guru reputation, but Chip Kelly's offense has been much friendlier to QBs than he gets credit for. Why? Because his spread-option, up tempo, zone read running attack forces opponents to pick their poison. Kelly has repeated versions of this quote for years:

"They can't defend it all. I'm really happy with how we threw the ball. If you're going to devote nine guys and try to stop the run, God bless you, and we'll throw it."

Since early in the season, defenses have made their choice: plug the box with seven or eight players and keep just one safety back deep. That often leaves man-to-man coverage on the outside against DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper. Those are golden matchups for a quarterback, but the Eagles haven't executed. As Sheil Kapadia wrote after the Cowboys game, "An average QB performance likely would have yielded 300+ yards and a score in the 20s." Unfortunately, Foles couldn't make that happen. Neither could Matt Barkley, as Derek Sarley showed last week.

Jump ahead to the Raiders game, and Foles finally started taking advantage of those one-on-one matchups, just as he did against the Buccaneers. Fran Duffy diagrammed all 7 TDs, and over and over you saw Cooper and Jackson beating man coverage -- and passes actually finding them. The gains were comical. Check out how Foles' numbers on long passes differ from last year (stats courtesy Pro Football Focus):

To start with, Foles is attempting about 50% more long passes than he did with Andy Reid at the helm. That's a big jump. His current rate of 16.1% is near the top of the league, after placing in the bottom half last season. This change is entirely about the offense; Michael Vick has also seen a spike in his deep balls, bringing him back to 2010 levels after declines the last two years.

But where things start to get crazy is the long ball effectiveness. Foles completed only 36% of passes 20 yards or longer in 2012. That's up to nearly 53% so far this year. Long ball completion percentage is a huge indicator of success. Look at the list of QBs who posted 48% or above last year: Kaepernick, Rodgers, P. Manning, Newton, Griffin, Brees, Wilson. That's elite territory.

Can Foles keep that completion rate up? Unclear. While there may be some regression to the mean, I'm actually bullish on this front. Kelly's offense seems to be giving his QBs a boost. Vick has also seen a double-digit jump in 20+ yard completion rate, so Foles' numbers may not be an aberration.

Touchdown and interception rates are another matter. Foles is averaging an insane four TDs for every ten long passes he throws. Eight out of his ten completions at that distance have gone for six points. He also has no interceptions at any distance all year -- the only quarterback with more than 75 passes who can say that. (No fumbles either.)

Even if the completion percentage stands, those most certainly won't. Last year, RGIII led the league in touchdown rate on passes of 20 yards or more -- at only 19.4%. Even if defenses don't significantly adjust their coverage schemes (although I expect they'll have to back out of the box more now), Foles simply can't count on the type of luck he's had so far with defenders falling down, receivers wide open, and more. He also eventually will start throwing interceptions. Last year he threw them on just 1.9% on all throws, but Football Outsiders' adjusted interception rate showed a more pedestrian 4.2% after accounting for defenders dropping would-be picks.

The first takeaway here is that SuperNick's current outsized numbers will almost certainly come back to Earth. He may be good the rest of the year, but he won't be that good. The second takeaway is more important, though. Foles' improvement is only over a small sample, but it may not be an anomaly. Kelly is putting his quarterbacks in a great position to succeed, and when defenses change to prevent that, it will only give McCoy more room to run. If the Chip's scheme looks this good with competent QB play from a limited upside guy like Foles, think about what it might do with a true top-tier talent at the position.

Silver Linings Playbook?

The Eagles lost, again. They blew coverages, again. They gave up turnovers, again. They fired a coach, again. And yet, Sunday night could have been much worse: the Eagles could have won.

Exactly a year ago, this team was in a similar place. At 4-8, their future was bleak. We started looking toward 2013, anticipating the changes in the offseason. But it wasn't to be. The Eagles rattled of four "fool's gold" wins to end the season at 8-8. They didn't fire Andy Reid, or get started on the much-needed reboot. They didn't have a shot at getting a once-in-a-decade talent like Robert Griffin III. 

I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, and these losses are painful. But let me tell you, it's better this way. There's nothing to be gained by winning any more, only by losing.

The important thing is evaluating players for 2013 and beyond. And to that end, we're learning a lot:

• Nick Foles had by far his best game so far. He made a few questionable throws, but was light years better than last week, when it looked like he desperately wanted to give the ball away. Foles made some tough, accurate throws (especially to Riley Cooper in the end zone) and withstood pressure in his face a few times. These are the types of performances he's going to need to have if he wants to audition for the starting job in 2013.
• Speaking of Riley Cooper, he seems to be everywhere these days. A safety blanket for Foles, Cooper's size makes him a real asset in the end zone. He's also a willing and able blocker (although asking him to match up with DeMarcus Ware is probably too much).
• The Bryce Brown show continued. In two weeks as the starter, Brown has totaled 347 rushing yards. His size, power, and vision are incredible. If you calculate his "Speed Score", he ranks either near the top of all running backs drafted in 2012 or near the top of all running backs, period (depending on whether you use official pro day 40 time of 4.48 or some reports of 4.37). Sure, there's a major fumbling issue. But that's not something to worry about now. Brown is already producing at a level we never could have imagined. Figure out the details in the offseason.
• Another positive development, I think, is the Eagles offensive line. King Dunlap was overmatched on the left side, which surprised exactly no one. But the Jake Scott signing has paid off immensely, as has Dennis Kelly getting more reps at his natural position of right tackle. The communication issues on that side of the line seemed to be almost entirely eliminated this week, and the duo actually coordinated some brutally effective blocks to spring Brown free.
• Of course, what does that say about Danny Watkins? Nothing good, I'm afraid.
• In other news, the defense is still awful. I don't understand how promoting Todd Bowles, whose coverage schemes were one of the only things working early in the season, could have backfired this spectacularly. It's stunning. You know it's bad when we're apologizing to Juan Castillo.
• Also, RIP wide nine. We won't miss you much. Except for Brandon Graham 2.0. You can stay.

Photo from Getty.

Throwing Cold Water on Dubious Roster Battles

Reuben Frank put out a list of the top ten roster battles heading into training camp. He hits on some of the biggest ones: Atogwe vs. Coleman, Rolle vs. Chaney, Hanson vs. Boykin. But he also lists a bunch of questionable ones:

• Dion Lewis vs. Bryce Brown? I’m excited to see if Brown can make the transition to the NFL. He clearly has 5x the physical potential of Lewis. But I’m not really seeing the competition for backup running back. There’s just no way Brown is going to come in after sitting out nearly all of college and immediately pick up the complexity of the Eagles offense and the intricacies of pass blocking, other essential bits. Then again, don’t read this as an endorsement of Lewis, who seems like a poor backup to one of the best players on the roster.
• Riley Cooper vs. Damaris Johnson? It’s unclear whether the Eagles will keep five or six wide receivers, but I don’t really see the big receivers competing against the smaller ones. Cooper and Marvin McNutt would serve similar roles on the roster, as would Johnson and Chad Hall. Those are the real one-on-one battles. Winners of each competition will be guaranteed a spot on the roster. After that, all they can do is hope the Eagles keep six guys.
• Clay Harbor vs. Brett Brackett? With the Eagles using more two tight end sets, the question is really whether Brackett can play his way onto the roster — not whether he can beat out Harbor, a more experienced player and much better blocker.
• Mike Kafka vs. Nick Foles? As with Lewis/Brown, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of Kafka. But Frank is the first person to suggest that Foles even has a shot to replace him in his rookie year.

Ahead of all of the above, I’d rate these battles: Demetress Bell vs. King Dunlap, Jaiquawn Jarrett vs. the Chopping Block, Derek Landri vs. Antonio Dixon vs. Cedric Thornton.