Will The Eagles Get Better?

If you watched the putrid Thursday Night Football game between the Giants and the Redskins last night, there was some solace for Philly fans. Mainly that everyone else in this division is pretty much just as #terrible as the Eagles.

That does leave room for optimism, despite two of the worst Eagles games in recent memory, strung back to back at the start of this season. The truth is that as bad as the Eagles have been, they still can turn things around. The question is whether their awful play so far is the result of fundamental, uncorrectable problems or something more fixable.

The answer to that question is in the eyes of the beholder. The offensive run blocking has been so bad that it's the worst (through two game sample size, of course) of any offensive line I can find in Football Outsiders' history. Their Adjusted Line Yards (aka roughly the yardage that the line is responsible for) is just 1.11 yards. To put that in perspective, last year's poor line was ranked 29th in ALY with 3.52 yards. Ryan over at ChipWagon can give you both the execution and scheme reasons for such failure. 

On one hand, maybe this is a sign that with a historically-bad offensive line and questionable play calling, the Eagles will never get their run game together. On the other hand, we can probably expect the Eagles to revert back at least somewhat to the mean, making the run offense moderately usable at some point. (Optimism!)

Ditto for Sam Bradford. This is a quarterback who has endured very little pressure from defenses (just 23% of the time through two games). The offensive line, for all of its run blocking woes, has allowed just one sack, good for the 3rd-best Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL of 1.5%. Yet Bradford continues to be unable to throw the ball down the field.

From @PFF, Bradford has attempted just 5 passes (5.6% of att.) of 20+ yards. 0 completions, 2 drops.

— EaglesRewind (@EaglesRewind) September 25, 2015

Bradford has averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt so far, 28th best in the league. To go with that, he's thrown 2 touchdowns against 4 interceptions and has looked out of sync with his receivers the whole time. Maybe Bradford is just bad, and Chip Kelly bet on the wrong quarterback. Maybe Mark Sanchez (barf) is actually the better choice right now. Or maybe Bradford hasn't played much in two years and is still adjusting to a new offense, new personnel, and being hit. Maybe he'll get better.

The defense, meanwhile, has shown promising signs (Malcolm Jenkins, Walter Thurmond, Bennie Logan) and worrisome ones (Byron Maxwell). The stats are slightly above average through the first two games against two potentially decent offenses. The defense certainly isn't good enough to carry an offense this bad, but it isn't the reason the Eagles have lost, either. More tests to come, though.

This weekend's game against the Jets is a must win. You don't go 0-3 and make the playoffs in this league. According to the chart below from FiveThirtyEight, that would leave them with just a 2% chance. But if they go 1-2, that's 25% and a tie for second place in a historically weak division. Then just maybe, there's room for hope...

Statistical Notes Through Week Four

A Step Deeper On Deep Passing​

​Last year, Michael Vick threw the ball 20 yards or more downfield 13.7% of the time. He had a 52% completion percentage on those throws, registering 3 TDs and 4 INTs.

This year, so far, Vick's attempts are down slightly to 11% and his completion percentage has also dropped to 41%. However, he's already thrown 3 TDs and has 0 INTs.​

Jason Avant: Going Downhill?

It seems to me that the Eagles have a problem at wide receiver. Not necessarily with their starters, but with their depth. Jason Avant has been a reliable slot receiver for a few years, providing good hands in traffic across the middle. ​But he has never proven himself capable of playing on the outside in a pinch, and his stats through four weeks suggest that he may not be getting open in the middle anymore either.

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​Anything through only four weeks is going to be a small sample size, so take this with the appropriate grain of salt. But given Michael Vick's trouble connecting with receivers down the field, and Jeremy Maclin's injury trouble​, one might expect Avant to become a bigger part of the offense. Instead, he's disappeared. While his catch rate has been great and his yards per attempt and catch are within his career norms, Avant's targets are way down in 2012.

Either Vick is having trouble finding his slot receiver, or he's simply not getting open.​

Ode To The Blockers​

​Demetress Bell needs help, and he's getting it from Brent Celek. The Eagles starting tight end is tied for the lead in the NFL in pass blocking snaps. He has pass blocked 47 times and run routes 121 times.

In other news, Stanley Havili played more snaps (28) against the Giants than Owen Schmitt played in any game last year.​

Brandon Graham: The Eagles Best Pass Rusher?​

​One player under tremendous pressure in the preseason was Brandon Graham, the Eagles' former first round pick. And so far this season (other than Vinny Curry), Graham has gotten the fewest total snaps of any defensive lineman. But (small sample size aside), he's actually the only Eagles pass rusher doing better than last year.

Below is a table of Pass Rush Productivity, Pro Football Focus's combined stat that adds sacks plus hits * .75 plus hurries * .75 and divides the total by the number of pass rushes the player has attempted.

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Graham's PRP is huge:  in fact, he leads the league on a percentage basis. Obviously, the small number of snaps still makes it a very preliminary result, but at least you can say that he has been tremendously productive in his limited reps. Note that Trent Cole and Jason Babin led the NFL in PRP last year among defensive ends with at least 25% of their team's snaps. They scored 14.9% and 13.7%, respectively. Both are down so far this year.​

DeSean On Pace For A Career Year​

80 receptions, 1332 yards would smash Jackson's previous career highs. Paying the man was a good idea.​

Playoffs? Don't Talk About Playoffs​

​Football Outsiders has the Eagles with a 55% chance to reach the playoffs and a 1.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. You taking those odds right now?

Photo from Getty.​