There Are No Shortcuts To The Super Bowl

Last March, Jeff Lurie told reporters he was was tired of waiting for the Eagles to be great. He’d seen sustained success, he’d been to a Super Bowl, and he’d watched his franchise post a solid 20-13 record (including a playoff loss) over the prior two seasons. It wasn’t enough.

“I’ve lived through a lot of division championships, a lot of playoff appearances, a lot of final four appearances, but our goal is we want to deliver a Super Bowl,” he said at the time. “And sometimes maybe I’m influenced by the notion of it’s very difficult to get from good to great, and you’ve got to take some serious looks at yourself when you want to try to make that step. It’s a gamble to go from good to great because you can go from good to mediocre with changes, but I decided it was important enough…”

On Wednesday, after firing Chip Kelly before the final game of the season, Lurie didn’t walk away from his words earlier in the year.

“I said, with Chip’s vision, it was an opportunity that he wanted to lead the way, to try to go from good to great,” he said. “In fact, I remember saying to all of you, there’s dangers in that, in terms of having two 10-6 seasons in a row, and when making significant changes, you can easily achieve mediocrity. I think it would be a shame not to try, but… that is the danger when you take a risk.”

I hope Lurie learned more than that, because his "strategy" was little more than a desperate hope. He handed over all power to Kelly, a moderately successful coach with zero experience running the intricacies of a NFL organization.

The road to the Super Bowl is not paved with such gambles, with an outsider making a bunch of questionable bets that luckily pay off. You don’t win by cutting talent and building #culture. You don’t win with a rigid set of measurables that dictate player acquisition. You don’t win by ignoring critical positions and spending excessive guaranteed money on less important ones. You don’t win by overpaying for a subpar quarterback coming off two major knee injuries, or turning over half the roster in one offseason. That’s how you end up 7-9 in one of the worst divisions ever.

There are no shortcuts.

Remember Andy Reid’s binder? Reid came to Philadelphia with a detailed multi-year plan of how to build an organization. He arrived in 1999, overhauled the roster, brought in an impressive group of experienced coaches (including 6 eventual head coaches), drafted a quarterback in the first round, and went 5-11. In 2000 the team and young quarterback improved, overachieving to reach the playoffs. By 2001 they were one of the best teams in the conference. In 2002 and 2003 they missed the Super Bowl by inches. In 2004 they came minutes away from the trophy itself.

Lurie said he doesn’t want the middle steps, he just wants the Super Bowl, and he was willing to gamble to get there. But those middle steps are important. That’s how you build a champion—not overnight, but consistently, step by step.

The best teams in the NFL have the best talent. The best teams in the NFL have a top quarterback they drafted and groomed. The best teams in the NFL have smart, experienced coaches who adjust their schemes to the players they have. The best teams in the NFL have a front office structure that empowers multiple voices and balances scouting with analytics and financial understanding.

Going into 2016, the Eagles need to avoid the quick fix, or the allure of competing for the playoffs in year one of a new regime. That won't set the team up for long term success. (Plus, they'll likely be in the running anyway unless the putrid NFC East changes significantly in a year.)

The blueprint needs to be for a Super Bowl contender in 2018. Let's lay out what that looks like...

Front Office: Howie Roseman has a mixed reputation among fans and league sources, but he can succeed in the Joe Banner role. He has experience on the personnel side to pair with a firm grasp of the league's economics. Roseman does need to find a qualified general manager-type to run player personnel, someone less washed-up than Tom Donahoe, with more experience than Ed Marynowitz, who's not obvious idiot Ryan Grigson.

Coaching: A NFL team is a crazy thing to manage, and any head coach needs to be able to bring in the right people and command respect across the organization. He doesn't have to be a brilliant innovator on the cutting edge, but he does need to be flexible enough to adapt his schemes and techniques to get the most out of his players in each situation. The single most important skill set within that is the ability to find and develop a franchise quarterback, which is what makes a candidate like Adam Gase so attractive.

Quarterback: You cannot be a consistent Super Bowl contender until you have a quarterback. As such, you should exhaust every possible avenue to get one, especially the draft. I stand by my recipe for QB hunting laid out four years ago, on the eve of Andy Reid's firing:

Draft a quarterback early and late. Sign somebody in free agency. Trade for a promising backup. Rinse and repeat. You're never going to be able to compete for the Super Bowl until you find your one franchise guy. Might as well cycle through as many potentials as you can until you do. The financial cost of doing so is less than the opportunity cost of sitting pat with one player, [Bradford], who is statistically unlikely to ever become an elite quarterback.

In the Eagles' case, that means avoiding any multi-year guarantee to a still-unproven quantity like Sam Bradford, and perhaps letting him go entirely depending on the cost.

Roster Building: Outside of quarterback, which takes priority over everything else, the offensive line is next on the list of must-haves. Though I don't know many of the names, Jimmy Kempski's mock draft would thrill me based on the selection of two quarterbacks and three offensive linemen. Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce are the only long term building blocks you can count on there. Meanwhile, don't waste resources on the rest of the offensive skill positions, none of which will matter much until the offensive line and quarterback are fixed.

The Eagles defense needs more talent across the board, but it also likely needs a scheme that better takes advantage of the players in house. Kelly wanted a two-gapping 3-4 system, but it would be nice to see what Fletcher Cox and company could do in a one-gapping 4-3 instead.

Overall: Both the organization and its fans need patience. We were spoiled by Chip's quick turnaround, but where did that leave us? Let's plan for sustainability.

Is The Eagles GM Sabotaging Chip Kelly?

I'm starting to think Chip Kelly, our beloved head coach and offensive mastermind, may not be on the same page with the Eagles general manager. In fact, hot take alert here, the GM may be actively sabotaging Chip. Let's examine the evidence.

In 2013, Kelly proved he could take a collection of players drafted by other people and mold them into a successful team. The defense, sure, was a bit rough. But Kelly inherited an offense of Andy Reid's making and turned it into something special. The offensive line dominated, with the left side anchored by two all-pro players, an emerging athletic center, wily veteran at right guard, and a top pick at right tackle. Meanwhile, Kelly's frenetic, quick-strike offensive style was matched perfectly by the dynamic big play duo of DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, who combined for 3,480 yards on the season—including 42 plays of more than 20 yards. Kelly even made Nick Foles, an immobile quarterback with a questionable arm, look like a star.

But I look at the 2015 Eagles, and it seems the GM actively tried to rid Chip of all his best players. He swapped the Foles for Sam Bradford, who costs more and has a terrible injury history. He ditched both of the Eagles' homegrown, in-their-prime dynamic wide receivers for a bunch of unproven youngsters supplemented with empty threats (this week notwithstanding) Riley Cooper and Miles Austin. He flipped McCoy, a shifty home run hitter, for north-south runners, then refused—over Chip's strenuous protests, I'm sure—to put any resources into the aging offensive line that made the whole thing work.

What Kelly's left with is an offense that looks nothing like the type of team he's been successful with in the past. Foles was never a running quarterback, but the current starter can't even execute read option plays for fear he won't survive the next hit. And Bradford doesn't even have the confidence, despite a decent arm, to throw downfield, wasting Chip's proven ability to scheme players open. His twice-a-game realization that there might be open players beyond 5 yards has corresponded with a brief one-quarter offensive resurgence in each game.

The coach probably could have told the GM that the running back position wasn't his limiting factor in the first two years. When defenders shot into the backfield in 2014, McCoy actually made many of them miss and got positive yards. Spending big to get shiny new running backs was much less important than making sure the blockers ahead of them weren't just terrible backups and journeymen. The Eagles GM even had the gall to extend both Allen Barbre and Andrew Gardner, moves which can only be interpreted as a straight up middle finger to his run-first coach.

To be fair, the GM has added talent on the defensive side, bringing it up to average or perhaps even slightly above. But even against weak quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, the unit's flaws are obvious. While the defensive line is shutting out running backs, giving up the 3rd-fewest yards per carry in the NFL, this is a passing league. The pass rush is nonexistent, with a sack rate of just 3.4%, 5th-worst. Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan are disruptive run defenders, but can't get to the quarterback. Connor Barwin and Brandon Graham are solid players but not sack artists. That meant that in the final minutes on Sunday, with Washington marching down the field, the Eagles failed to get any pressure. It doesn't help, of course, that the secondary is still suspect.

When you look at all of it together, it's clear that something needs to be done before the Eagles GM torpedoes our head coach's obvious talent. Fire this idiot, I say, and hire someone who knows what he's doing. Heck, maybe give Chip Kelly a chance to take over player personnel. He could probably do just as well.

Too Easy: How The 49ers Crushed The Eagles Run Game

Last year, the Eagles led the NFL in rushing by a sizable margin, despite routinely facing extra defenders in the box who loaded up to stop LeSean McCoy and the deadly zone-read attack.

This year could hardly be more different. On Sunday against the 49ers, the Eagles rushed the ball 12 times for an anemic 22 yards, the fourth-worst performance in franchise history since 1970. And this was against one of the least-stacked defensive fronts the Eagles have faced since Chip Kelly took over.

See for yourself. Here's how the Saints lined up against the Eagles to start the playoff game last year:

Even against a three-wide receiver look, the Saints dropped their second safety down into the box to combat the run, giving them seven defenders against six blockers. The Eagles faced stacked defenses like this all year -- and still bullied their way to 5.1 yards per carry.

By contrast, here's the predominant defensive alignment the Eagles faced on Sunday:

We're in No-22 territory here, but you don't need the overhead angle to see what's going on. On 1st and 10 in the beginning of the second quarter against what's supposed to be one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL, the 49ers only put six defenders in the box and dropped both safeties at least 15 yards down-field.

Kelly normally salivates over this kind of defensive front. He has six blockers on the line against their six defenders -- a numerical advantage. Plus, Kelly can tip the scale further in his favor by having his quarterback read one defensive end, giving his offensive line and tight end a six to five hat-on-hat advantage. Last year, McCoy would have gained 20 yards before being touched.

You can re-watch the play yourself on Game Rewind, but it was not pretty. Forgoing the read-option for straight hand off, the Eagles ran what I believe is a Power Play. David Molk and Dennis Kelly blocked down on the defensive tackles, Todd Herremans and Brent Celek double-teamed the end, and Matt Tobin pulled to lead McCoy into the hole.

Some watchers have criticized LeSean McCoy recently for dancing in the hole, but there wasn't much of one here. As McCoy charged in, both Molk and Kelly were pushed back into his face. Meanwhile, the 49ers left defensive end split his double team. McCoy was tackled for a one yard gain.

EDIT: Fran Duffy over at PE.com looked at the same play in his weekly All-22 post.

This happened over and over. The 49ers didn't do anything special. They just played the exact opposite of every defense the Eagles faced last year: kept their safeties back in a prevent look and dared the beat-up offensive line to open holes for McCoy man-on-man. And the Eagles failed, over and over again.

There are a number of conclusions to take away from this. The first is obvious: bringing back Lane Johnson against the St. Louis Rams better improve the offensive line in a hurry. If the Eagles can't create running room when they have a numbers advantage, this is going to be a long season.

There are broader questions too. Can Nick Foles and the wide receivers step up and win games on their own? Any quarterback is going to struggle when he has no consistent run game or pass protection -- and especially when neither is the result of a concerted effort by the defense to stack the box and/or blitz. Last year opponents tried to stop McCoy and dared Foles to beat them through the air. San Francisco was one of the first teams to challenge the young quarterback with extra defenders in coverage.

Foles has been inconsistent through the first four games, showing an indecisiveness we didn't see during the team's miracle run last year. He double clutches too many balls and his long throws have been inaccurate. But he doesn't share all the blame. While Maclin has stepped up more than almost anyone expected, he still doesn't have the breakaway speed to get separation on deep routes. And Riley Cooper, lord of the drops, has a putrid 5 yards per target.

Also, at some point in the offseason Kelly trashed (or at least mothballed) the zone-read part of his offense. You see Foles keep the ball every now and then, but the Eagles have largely abandoned any effort to constrain the defense with that threat. A running quarterback could punish the light defensive front the 49ers played so often on Sunday. For now, with Foles, the Kelly offense has lost one of its great weapons -- a third dimension that wins games when all else fails.

The run game should improve when the offensive line gets healthy, but if not, we'll see how long that decision holds.

Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on.
Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans.

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
Kurt Coleman: Bye.
Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line.
Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

Is The Eagles Offensive Line Quietly Even Worse Than Last Year?

The Eagles rushing attack is pretty great.

The offense leads the league in total rushing yards (2140) and average per carry (5.0). Football Outsiders grades them out as the top DVOA rushing offense with +20.1%, head and shoulders above second-place Dallas at +10.9%. A piece of that action has come on quarterback runs. Michael Vick is second in the NFL in rushing DYAR despite having only played in parts of six games. Banged up at age 33, he has the highest rushing DVOA of his career, a ridiculous +68.1%. Even slowpoke Nick Foles places 7th in rushing DYAR and 9th in DVOA, showing the power of the zone read.

But the bulk of the rushing offense comes down to one man: LeSean McCoy. The first back to cross 1000 yards, he's second in the league in DYAR and has already surpassed his personal season rushing record. During the Snow Bowl, he set a new franchise single-game rushing record. However, he also took some flak last month from his coach Chip Kelly, who told the press that he pushes Shady to not dance around quite so much:

"I think LeSean is trying to press too much and trying to hit a home run on every play instead of letting it develop," Kelly said.

The comment was fairly innocuous, as any observer could point out a couple plays every game where McCoy tries to out-juke just one too many defenders, or cut back one too many times. But ultimately McCoy is a Barry Sanders-esque force of nature in the backfield, and he's bailing out Chip's offense and his blockers up front much more than the other way around.

See, the truth according to the advanced stats runs somewhat contrary to the conventional wisdom. Not that anyone is particularly discounting McCoy's contribution to the offense. But there has been a lot of praise heaped on the zone read and a rejuvenated offensive line for the success of the run game. It's not completely misplaced. Certainly we've seen the Jason Peters, Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce dominate blocks at times. Todd Herremans appears to be fading with age, and Lane Johnson makes some rookie mistakes, but they're important athletic pieces in the blocking scheme.

But ultimately, the advanced offensive line stats don't look particularly good:

Since 2010, when McCoy took over as the featured back, the rushing attack has been stellar. High per-rush averages, great power success (that's short yardage, high leverage plays), and elite 2nd level and open field gains. The consistency of those stats is shocking compared to the overall decline in Football Outsiders' signature stat of Adjusted Line Yards. That metric weights runs by distance, attempting to isolate the offensive line's performance over the early yards vs. the largely running back-driven yards down the field.

McCoy has always generated a healthy performance bump above what his offensive line provides him, but this year is the greatest difference yet. Some of that is a higher rushing average than the last two years, but Eagles running backs are actually behind their 2010 pace. The difference is that the offensive line has only "generated" 3.47 yards per rush, 0.6 yards per rush less than 2010. The gradual decline over the last three years comes despite no major change in power or stuffed rank. And the 2nd level and open field yards are as good as ever for McCoy.

Plus, the offensive line isn't doing so hot in pass protection either. The adjusted sack rate is actually worse than last year, despite a distinct lack of starting games by noted turnstile Danny Watkins.

None of these stats are perfect, but the overall picture isn't jiving with the public narrative of a rejuvenated offensive line. And that's partially to be expected. The Eagles had the eight-oldest starting offensive line coming into the season, despite starting a 23-year-old rookie. The Giants are the only other team to rely on three starters over 30. Normally you would worry about injuries with an aging offensive line, but due to either #sportscience or good luck, the Eagles front five have been remarkably injury-free. They just haven't been as productive.

Despite controlling their own playoff destiny, this team has a lot of obvious holes. But when everyone's screaming for more pass rushers and defensive backs this offseason, don't be surprised if the Eagles make a push for young offensive line help. It's secretly one of the team's largest problems.

How Chip Kelly Uses The Run To Post Near-Record 3rd Down Efficiency

Here's a stat you probably didn't know: this year's Eagles offense is on pace to register one of the smallest three-and-out percentages in recent history. Through six games, Football Outsiders clocks the Eagles as having three-and-outs on only 10.8% of all drives. If they can keep that pace up, it would tie them for second-best among all teams over the last 16 years (the entire period FO has accounted for this stat).

There are a number of things that help Chip Kelly's offense avoid the dreaded three-and-out. Part is just being tremendously efficient across the board. The historical team the Eagles are tied with right now is the 2001 St. Louis Rams, an offensive juggernaut that rode to a 14-2 record and Super Bowl appearance. Like those Rams, the 2013 Eagles rank second overall in offensive DVOA, with both passing and rushing offenses in the top 5. When you register a full 1.2 yards more per play than the average NFL offense, you're going to have fewer dead drives.

But that's not all. The number two ranked team in three-and-out percentage is the Carolina Panthers, and their offense is middling. There's another key to Kelly's success in this area, and it's relatively simple: he runs the ball more on third down and short.

On third down with 1 or 2 yards to go, NFL teams run just slightly more than they pass this year: 52%. This is odd, because running is significantly more effective. 66% of all runs from this distance convert a first down, while only 51% of passes do. Such odds would be even more favorable for the Eagles offense. The offensive line has looked good so far (although only 3.81 adjusted line yards), but more importantly LeSean McCoy is a beast. Kelly clearly knows this. He has called run plays in those situations 84% of the time, far more than any other team -- and has an 81% success rate to show for them.

The tendency extends to third downs from 3 to 5 yards out as well. For most NFL offenses, this is a straight passing down. A quarter of teams have yet to call a run in this situation, and the overall rush rate is a measly 10%. This seems to be a rational decision for most teams. At this run-pass ratio, the success rate for both has hit an equilibrium of about 47%.

Kelly, however, has called runs on 35% of these plays. That percentage is exceeded by only one other team: the Panthers, who we mentioned above. Both teams have succeeded with this strategy. The Panthers, with Cam Newton and a couple of successful backs, have been successful on 60% of their runs. The Eagles have converted a first down on over 70% of such plays.

This isn't new territory. Brian Burke wrote about how NFL teams should run more on third and short back in 2008:

On 3rd and 1, offenses scored an average of 2.38 points if they ran, and an average of 2.24 points if they passed. The difference of 0.14 points is remarkably close to the 0.12-point theoretical estimate calculated above.

The differences are even bigger for 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 3 situations. The advantage of running is 0.45 and 0.31 expected points respectively—convincing evidence that offenses should be running more often on 3rd and short.

With the numbers -- and an elite back -- to support him, Kelly's play calling has been spot on. The Eagles have converted 74% of all third downs from 1-5 yards. That's the highest rate in the league, and is a key factor keeping their up tempo drives rolling.

Game Rewind: 15 Screenshots From the First 15 Minutes of the Chip Kelly Era

On Monday, before the Eagles' opener, I downplayed the notion that the Eagles would be able to put many wins together this season, noting that what we're really looking for is a season like Andy Reid's foundation-building 1999. I WAS WRONG.

Well, at least I was wrong about the team's potential to win games this season. Looks like the offense Kelly brings may be good enough to be more competitive more quickly than I expected. Not to mention exciting. I'm riding high off that win, especially the first quarter that became one glorious offensive wet dream.

Still, I'd caution against reading too much into Monday's game. Not only was the offense new, the defense was also unexpectedly shifty. That's a positive development from their listless preseason performance, but as the game wore on Washington adapted to Billy Davis' schemes (and he backed off some). Some flaws were exposed and others soon will be by opposing coordinators now getting a fresh look at Eagles tape. Without the Redskins' early turnovers, the Eagles might not have gone home as happy.

Because the game turned out to be so long, and the coaches' tape isn't up yet, I only managed to re-watch the first 15 minutes of the game. Here are 15 screenshots from that giddy first quarter... (Click to embiggen)

Most of what I want to highlight are variations on the zone read play Kelly loves to call. Below is one where Vick appears to be reading the slot corner. When he stays home to guard against the bubble screen, McCoy gets the handoff up the middle. Also note, the blue block is Lane Johnson, firing up to the second level after lining up on the right next to Jason Peters. Freezing one defender and then running Shady behind two tackles like Johnson and Peters is frightening:

Similar play below. Again, Vick is reading the slot corner (#26). Washington had that corner come on the blitz a few times, including this one. Reading him is a perfect counter. Vick fakes the hand off and throws a quick bubble screen to DeSean:

Then the Eagles take the above concept and add another option for Vick -- a pop pass to the tight end over the middle. Now he's reading the middle linebacker London Fletcher (#59) in addition to freezing the rest of the right side of the defense via the bubble screen threat (which he may change to given pre-snap read). When Fletcher turns to pick up Brent Celek, Vick hands it off to McCoy:

Like any other running play, success is contingent on the men up front maintaining their blocks. But because of the passing options, by the time McCoy gets to the second level, there's no one there to meet him. London Fletcher, with four Pro Bowls, 15 years of experience, and over 1300 career tackles, has taken himself out of the play:

Later we see essentially the same play run to the right. This time, Fletcher takes a step forward, looking at McCoy. Vick throws to a wide-open Ertz instead, picking up an easy first down:

Below is another zone read where Vick is either reading the LB or the DT. I highlighted the former, but it depends who you think Celek is trying to block. Either way the threat of the QB keeper makes it devastating when he actually hands off to McCoy -- who follows a pulling Jason Kelce into a hole manned by the unbalanced line of Peters and Johnson on the right:

The Eagles didn't play much defense in the first quarter, but here's one play we can take a quick break for. The Redskins execute a great screen. They manage to get Alfred Morris the ball with three linemen poised to crush Mychal Kendricks and anyone else. But Kendricks, showing this may be a breakout season, dodges two of them and makes a textbook open field tackle:

One problem I kept noticing was Vick being indecisive on what should be quick reads. Here the pre-snap read is clearly going to indicate throwing the bubble screen right away. Only one of the three DBs to the bottom is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage:

Vick should throw this ball immediately in the screenshot below. DeSean is open and Avant is just beginning to engage the first DB:

Instead, Vick holds on to the ball and sprints out. This brings pressure on himself and allows the safety to come down. But worst of all, he's letting Avant block downfield for a couple of seconds before the pass is thrown. The referees called an easy offensive pass interference on this one:

Vick also needs to make quicker decisions under pressure. Below he has a free rusher in his face and instead of dumping the ball off to an outlet receiver (or just throwing it at their feet), he freezes and takes a dumb sack:

Alright, now check out the play below. It's another zone read sweep where Vick is reading the defensive tackle. He sees the DT crash down, so he pulls the ball and runs upfield. Todd Herremans springs to the next level to block the linebacker, while Brent Celek (obscured) tries to cut block his man:

Some people speculated during the live game that Vick ran head first into the scrape-exchange. But really this is just a simple execution problem. Celek's cut block is awful but slows down his man. It's Herremans who totally whiffs on the linebacker, leaving Vick exposed. Note, Vick probably would have had better luck running to the sideline instead of cutting back inside:

One of Vick's sacks came when Herremans and Johnson had some kind of blocking miscommunication. Herremans blocked down on the defensive tackle while Johnson eyed the blitzing linebacker. Neither of them picked up Ryan Kerrigan:

Before even helping Vick up, the rookie turned to Herremans to hash things out:

The Herr-Dawg Prepares to Move Inside

Todd Herremans doesn't seem to mind his presumed move back to guard. From Jordan Raanan:

"They don't spend the fourth overall pick on a kid and not have him come and play tackle," said Herremans, who received a text from general manager Howie Roseman and a phone call from coach Chip Kelly after the pick. "One of the things that has always been big for me is my versatility and being able to play other places. I'm sure they'll probably bump me down to guard and see how everything else works out."

And this quote was buried, but also interesting:

"I was prepared to play tackle, I was prepared to play guard," Herremans said. "I think I can probably steal a few more years at guard, but I still think I have three or four really good years of football left."