Thoughts on Free Agency Day 1

The Eagles were active on the first day of free agency. Although they didn't go after any of the big names, Howie Roseman and company made a bevy of smaller moves. Let's break them down.

Cut Nnamdi Asomugha. Finally. Now we can all celebrate.

Signed Isaac Sopoaga. According to Albert Breer, it's a three-year deal worth $12 million, with $5 million guaranteed. First of all, I doubt it's really for three years. Sopoaga is 31 years old, and he'll be 32 when September rolls around. That's not a player you count on a few years down the road. Second, I don't particularly like this signing. As I said on Monday, it's time to rebuild from the ground up. You want the Eagles to get younger -- something their other signings accomplished -- not older. Sopoaga serves one purpose only, and it's similar to the one Michael Vick is serving: he allows the coaching staff to implement a new scheme immediately. That's valuable as the defense converts to 3-4 hybrid, but I'd rather see them bring in younger nose tackles instead. Hopefully they still will.

Signed Bradley Fletcher. Jordan Raanan says the deal is two years, $5.25 million plus incentives. This is a fascinating move. Lots of people are high on the young corner (he turns 27 this summer), including Tommy Lawlor, who says Bradley has "the best pure cover skills of any CB on the market." Yet he was demoted last year, previously suffered a knee injury, and received a relatively cheap deal that itself suggests he wasn't highly valued. Bradley immediately becomes the most experienced corner on the roster, and one of the starting spots is his to lose. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Signed James Casey. I know lots of folks were hoping for a stretch-the-field athlete at tight end like Jared Cook. But this is probably better (and cheaper). Casey is a fullback/tight end hybrid who the Eagles gave a three-year, $14.5 million deal. What's great about that versatility (he even played WR and QB in college at Rice) is that Casey can shift all around the formation as Chip Kelly turns up the speed on his no-huddle offense. He's not amazing at any one role, but whenever he's on the field the team has a capable receiver, blocker, even running back at their disposal. As far as 29-year-old role players go, there's a lot of upside here. Matt Waldman has a good write-up on Casey's abilities.

Signed Patrick Chung. The Eagles needed to add more safeties, and the hard-hitting Chung certainly fits. The 2009 second-rounder fell out of favor in New England after a spate of injuries and poor coverage. Much like the Bradley signing, there's talent and youth to like here. Still, Bill Belichick knows as much about defensive back play as anyone, and he let Chung walk. Plus, analysis of his performance sounds a lot like a description of Kurt Coleman. That's never good. UPDATE: Apparently Chung's salary is "fully guaranteed" in 2013 and 2104, which makes no sense.

Signed Jason Philips. The 27-year-old journeyman is going to compete for an inside linebacker spot. You have to like his chances against the likes of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews, but he's nothing to get excited about.

Photo from Getty.

Free Agency Strategy for a New Era

Free agency kicks off this week (finally). The Eagles are sitting on over $30 million in cap space, and that number should jump over $40 million once they cut Nnamdi Asomugha. That kind of cap flexibility positions the team as a major buyer. The question, as always, is who is worth buying and at what price. But more broadly, how should the Eagles use this free agency period to set themselves up for long term success?

I don't need to rehash the dangers of free agency. You can draw a straight line from the summer of 2011 to the downfall of Andy Reid. But just because there are dangers doesn't mean the Eagles would be better off ignoring the rash of veterans on the open market. Looking back at the Reid era, we saw how making the right decisions can immensely help your team. Take Jon Runyan for example. He was signed in 2000, only Reid's second offseason. He became one of two bookend tackles that anchored the offense for the next decade.

The Runyan deal obviously looks great in hindsight, but you can see why it was likely to succeed. The team purchased a young player with top talent at a premium position. Those are really the only types of acquisitions I'm rooting for this time around. The Eagles have too many holes to think they can turn this around in a single offseason. Rather than try to plug everything, play the long game.

You obviously want to avoid older players, including stars. Even if the next Asomugha or Babin played well, they wouldn't still be good when the rest of the team is ready to make a leap. Furthermore, I see little benefit in buying up middling talent at this stage. This isn't a Super Bowl team about to make a run. Better to let youngsters battle it out with playing time than give snaps to a mediocre band-aid player.

Overall, and maybe this is common sense, but you should look at every potential acquisition and ask yourself, can this player be an integral part of a deep playoff run in 3 years? Actually, that's the same question you should ask about the players on the current roster. If the answer isn't a resounding yes, don't waste your money. Move on, get younger, start over.

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Cut Nnamdi Asomugha Already

The news Friday morning is that the Eagles will meet with Nnamdi Asomugha's agent, Ben Dogra, today to discuss possible restructure of his contract. Sheil Kapadia explains the topic succinctly:

But the key here is that the Eagles owe Asomugha $4 million if they cut him. In other words, Asomugha will have to weigh two options from a financial perspective.

Whatever the Eagles offer him over $4 million in a newly re-structured deal.

What he thinks he could potentially get from a new team on the open market.

In other words, Asomugha can pocket the $4 million AND make whatever a new team offers.

I don't see much to gain in restructuring Asomugha's contract. Because the Eagles didn't put offsetting language in his contract, they have to pay the aging corner a sunk cost of $4 million no matter what. They can certainly negotiate his total salary down from $15 million, but to make it worthwhile to Asomugha, the amount over $4 million has to be at or above market rate.

There's little upside in keeping Nnamdi through this regime change, let alone paying him a few million (extra) for his services. Time for the team to learn from their mistake, cut their losses, and move on.

I Come To Bury DRC, Not To Praise Him

Good friends, sweet friends, let me not stir you up
To such a sudden flood of mutiny.
They that have done this deed are honorable:
What private griefs they have, alas, I know not,
That made them do it: they are wise and honorable,
And will, no doubt, with reasons answer you.

Like Asante Samuel before him, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie drew a lot of righteous anger during his stay in Philadelphia. Despite natural athletic talents that rival any cornerback in the NFL, Rodgers-Cromartie floats through the game of football. He was an awful tackler even when he tried, and he rarely put in the effort anyway. He gave up many more penalties and long plays than any "Pro Bowl" corner should. In short, despite those tremendous outfits, he was nearly impossible to root for.

To that end, I have little quarrel with the Eagles deciding to let Rodgers-Cromartie walk without applying the franchise tag, as Geoff Mosher reported. If Chip Kelly doesn't want him, nor Howie Roseman (who acquired him in 2011), nor defensive coordinator Billy Davis (who coached DRC in Arizona), who are we to argue? It's not like the cornerback stood out last year. Here are the coverage numbers, from Pro Football Focus. The ranks show their place among the 77 cornerbacks who played at least half of their team's coverage snaps in 2012:

Looking at DRC's stats, you can tell he was no star. Of course, none of the Eagles corners were. Brandon Boykin held his own in the slot, proving himself admirable, if not spectacular in his rookie season. Nnamdi Asomugha continued his long streak of scaring quarterbacks off, posting the fourth-lowest targets per snap in the league. Of course, when they actually did throw his way, Asomugha was awful. He ranked 63rd in completion percentage and dead last in yards per target.

Rodgers-Cromartie doesn't deserve any breaks either. True, his target and completion rates were above average, but his performance declined dramatically over the course of the season as he seemed to lose interest. See the table at right, as DRC's quarterback rating against dropped after a good start to the season through week six.

This is probably the point where we should bring up the event that occured after week six: the firing of Juan Castillo. Remember what the cornerback said when Castillo was kicked out the door?

Most of the players have had fond words regarding Juan Castillo the man, but few have stood up for him as a coach quite like DRC did on Thursday. Rodgers-Cromartie revealed that it was Castillo that transformed him into a press corner, working overtime with him to make sure the 26-year-old went through the change as smoothly as possible.

“No question. He changed my game. He turned me into a press corner,” said Rodgers-Cromartie. “He’s one of the guys that took the time with you, to make you understand the weakness in your game and keep you after practice and make you work on it. This is the NFL, you’re accountable for yourself. Not too many people are going to say, ‘Hey, you need to do this and make sure you do it.’ They tend to let you do it on your own.”

Rodgers-Cromartie is capable of playing at a high level in spurts, but to do so consistently he needs special attention from coaches. That's not something we expect Kelly and his team of 50 assistant coaches (give or take) to have time to do, right? If DRC's performance goes downhill after his favorite coach is fired and the rest of the defense is falling apart, surely we don't want him around any more.

Time to move on to the team's other alternatives. Restructure Asomugha's contract, sort through the free agent bin and draft heap to find another adequate starter. Moving Boykin out of his natural slot position could work. Or perhaps one of the gang of invisible backups is will start showcasing Pro Bowl talent. Whatever the result, letting a young, capable, and inconsistent starting cornerback go for nothing is definitely the right move. There have to be better ways to spend the Eagles' plentiful salary cap space. DRC, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Photo from Getty.

In Other Cornerback News...

On Wednesday, I took a look at Brandon Boykin's production. For a rookie slot corner, he did rather well. I wish I could say the same about the rest of the Eagles cornerbacks. Overall, it was a rather disappointing bunch.

As everyone surely remembers, last offseason the Eagles traded away Asante Samuel for a seventh-round draft pick. It was a stunningly low value return for a player who is currently fourth in career interceptions among all active players. Still, there was optimism. Trading Samuel allowed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to play his natural position outside rather than in the slot. Nnamdi Asomugha, it was thought, would benefit from Todd Bowles' better schemes.

It didn't quite work out that way. Check out the numbers below, with ranks based on the 118 NFL cornerbacks who have played at least 25% of their defense's coverage snaps:

I used the same metrics to evaluate Boykin's slot performance. First you have target percentage, which measures how often quarterbacks looked your way. All three starters did better than average in this marker, Asomugha especially. The former Oakland Raider has always deterred passes in his direction, and this year was no exception, ranking fourth among those 118 cornerbacks. As we will get to in a moment, Asomugha's stats weren't as good when quarterbacks actually threw the ball at him. That makes for a curious question. Is he still benefitting from reputation? Or does his press-coverage style just discourage lots of short, quick passes to his receiver?

The second metric is completion percentage. Both Rodgers-Cromartie and Boykin were quite solid. Although he was flagged for a number of poor pass interference calls, DRC's last-second make-up speed allows him to get his hands on the ball at the last second and break up catches. Asomugha, on the flipside, didn't look so good. Quarterbacks completed nearly 65% of passes toward his man.

Finally we have yards per catch. Everybody here did poorly, with Asomugha at the very bottom. If you want, you can give some benefit of the doubt here. The Eagles had poor safety play all year. Where the corners should have had help over the top or a timely tackle, often turned into a major error that allowed significant yards after the catch. Still, it's not a positive marker.

Note that I haven't mention the other two cornerbacks I listed, Curtis Marsh and Brandon Hughes. Neither has good numbers, although they only had 78 coverage snaps combined, so it's hard to draw any conclusions.

Overall, I think you have to lean toward letting Asomugha go. He's clearly a liability in coverage, and that will only worsen as he slows down and teams realize how bad he has become. Boykin certainly looks like a keeper with upside. And DRC has potential but not always the best results. I've advocated re-signing him in the past, and I still think that would be a good idea. Hopefully the next coach can get more out of him. The final takeaway is that the team needs better safeties. Mistakes are really magnified when you can't count on a last-resort option to clean up the mess.

Photo from Getty.

Unpredictable, But Still Revealing

Sheil Kapadia:

Remember the whole “We’re not going to be predictable” storyline that got repeated after Juan Castillo was fired? Well, Bowles lived up to it here. I’d say blitzing Asomugha, your $60M corner, on third-and-long qualifies.

Another great All-22 breakdown from Sheil. Blitzing Nnamdi certainly isn't predictable -- although it also doesn't seem to have worked very well. And any time you're willingly taking your top corner and putting him on the line of scrimmage, well, he's probably not your top corner any more.

Let's Not Panic Just Yet

While I missed the Eagles-Steelers game live, I certainly caught the harsh real-time reaction to the loss. However, once I caught up on the game myself yesterday, I was surprised how little cause for alarm I saw. Sure, the Eagles lost. But not all losses are created equal.

The Eagles lost by 2 points, on the road at a good Pittsburgh team. That, on its face, should be enough to keep the sky from falling. The Arizona loss and even the Cleveland win were both more alarming.

For starters, the defense continues to play well overall. They went into the game 2nd in defensive DVOA, and allowed only 16 points to a Pittsburgh team that averaged nearly 26 per game through the first three weeks, was coming off its bye, and returned its top running back. I don't see much to complain about with that performance.

Granted, there are shortcomings on defense that need to be shored up. The defensive line got pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, but failed to record a sack. The run defense was lacking at times, especially when Fletcher Cox was on the sidelines. And Nnamdi Asomugha continues to show that he's not a bad corner, but certainly a limited one. But these are complaints at the fringes of success.

The bigger question marks were on offense, but even there I see more silver linings than storm clouds. For the second straight week, Andy Reid toned down the offense, keeping the run-pass ratio under control while providing easier routes for Michael Vick. Vick responded with his second straight solid week through the air: completing two-thirds of his passes, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. And the offense left multiple plays on the field. Obviously there was the fumble down at the goal line, which is just killer bad luck. The Eagles also should have received a defensive pass interference call on Ike Taylor against DeSean Jackson in the second quarter. That would have put them in position for another score.

The biggest problem, which we already knew going in, was the offensive line. They don't have the individual players to match up well, but they could *ahem* muddle through if only their communication was better. The Steelers' zone-blitz scheme isn't easy to protect against, but you can't have rushers coming free at the quarterback if you want to win in the NFL.

One final point, regarding Michael Vick's fumbling. There's a lot of hand-wringing over it, even people saying he should be benched. I don't believe that. Vick has always been rather fumble-prone, with a rate often hovering around or just below 10% of all sacks and runs. He led the NFL in fumbles twice, in 2004 and 2010. But through all that, he's never had a fumble rate as bad as he is putting up this year.

A few weeks back, I suggested that Vick's interception rate was ridiculously high, bordering on a statistical anomaly. Since then, after two interception-less games, it has dropped to just a tick under last year's number. At this point, I'm looking at Vick's absurd 17.4% fumble rate and thinking the same thing. He's probably never going to be great at controlling the ball, but this poor trend isn't likely to sustain itself either.

Photo from Getty.

Mike P's, Ooh-Op-Ooh, and Other Eagles-Giants Notes

I was sure the Eagles were going to lose.

When they had to settle for a field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. When the Giants kick returner brought out the ensuing kickoff for yet another long gain. When, on 4th and 1, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was charged with pass interference. When, on the following 3rd and 10, Nnamdi Asomugha drew a second pass interference call. Even when the Giants' Ramses Barden mauled Asomugha for the same call going the other way, there was little hope Lawrence Tynes would miss the 54-yard field goal attempt.

And then he did! ... Only Andy Reid, in all his glory, punched his gift horse in the mouth by calling a timeout. Surely, on the second attempt, Tynes would put it in. But then, in one of the most improbable events in an improbable season, he missed again, and the Eagles won.

I think I'm still in shock.

Let's get to a few notes on the game, and from the locker room after:

Isn't it amazing how much better Michael Vick looks when you establish a run game for him? In the second half, when the Eagles fed LeSean McCoy 17 times, Vick went 8 of 11 for 109 yards, plus he scrambled 3 times for another 30. The Giants, bowed by McCoy's dazzling cutbacks, weren't able to get the same pressure on Vick, and he could sit in the pocket more comfortably.
One of the most amazing things about the Eagles approach to the run game yesterday was how they stuck with it despite poor returns early. In the first half McCoy and Bryce Brown had a combined 8 carries for 1 yard. Add in Damaris Johnson's one carry that lost a yard and you get a big zero in the rushing column. Nine times out of ten, Reid and Marty Mornhinweg would have used that as an excuse to abandon the run. Not last night, and it paid off.
The margin of victory was so close that one turnover certainly would have doomed the Eagles, but they finally kept the ball under wraps. That was huge.
DRC was funny in the locker room. He talked about the 4th and 1 play in which he let Victor Cruz get by him for a 30 yard gain: "He gave me the Ooh-Op-Ooh." When the laughs subsided and he was asked to elaborate, he said, "I go one way, he went the other." All in good fun, especially when DRC picked off Eli Manning in the end zone on the next play. He told me that in film study they saw that Eli often stares down Cruz, and if he's covered, will immediately go to his second option, typically the tight end. DRC's job on the play was to spy on Manning, and it worked beautifully.
I also talked to Jason Babin for a bit, because I'm somewhat fascinated by the Eagles stand-up blitz look. One would think that the defense has shown enough film that offenses would be able to shut it down. Babin described the "infinite possibilities" out of that look, and how the offense really can't anticipate where he or his fellow blitzers will end up.
What's going on in the kickoff coverage? Might be as simple as Akeem Jordan and Colt Anderson, the team's two best special teamers, being inactive. But Bobby April has to do a better job regardless.
Post game, Reid said it doesn't feel so good to try to freeze the kicker and then be "surrounded by 66,000 people who want to rip your throat out." If Tynes makes that second field goal attempt, I think there might have been a riot on Broad Street. But nice to finally be on the right end of some field goal luck.
Continuing a trend, the Eagles defense only allowed 17 points despite poor field position. Still, there are serious holes in this defense. Especially down at the red zone, the coordinated coverage between Brandon Boykin in the slot and the linebackers needs work. Receivers running slants and underneath crossing routes seem to be the real problem. Additionally, the combination of Nnamdi Asomugha's lack of speed and Kurt Coleman's quick bite on play action is deadly. At the end if the day, Nnamdi's not getting any younger, so Coleman has to have better awareness.
On a related note, Rodgers-Cromartie (still) doesn't seem too pleased with zone coverage. He talked about how he likes lining up in man coverage, facing the offense head-on. DRC suggested that a lot of the coverage problems they have come from switching out of that base defense: "Things can get a little confusing."
One final thing. When talking with Cullen Jenkins, Babin stopped by to tell his line-buddy that he did "3 Mike P's" in the game. When pressed for the meaning of that expression, Babin called it an inside joke and would only say it meant "everything and nothing." Derek Landri wouldn't elaborate beyond "throwing everything at them." When asked if a "Mike P" could possibly be named after anyone in particular, both players slyly demurred.

Photo from Getty.