Final Thoughts on the Final Cuts

The final cuts are in, and I was wrong on so many counts. Oh well, not all of us can be Geoff Mosher.​ Here are my last thoughts on the roster as it currently stands:

• ​I'm really kicking myself for not marking down a cut for Joselio Hanson. It's not like I didn't see this coming. He played poorly in 2011 (Sheil Kapadia noted that his Success Rate dropped dramatically) and the Eagles actually drafted his clear replacement. This should have been an easy call, but I was confused by the Eagles not giving Boykin much of a chance to start in the preseason.
• ​Speaking of the secondary, is anyone else worried about the safety position? I'm on record as being relatively skeptical about the starters, but all in all they should be fine. The problem comes if they don't play well consistently—or one of them, shocker, gets hurt. Are you going to turn to Jaiquawn Jarrett? What about newly acquired youngster David Sims? Colt Anderson, coming off an injury, has never been thought of as anything more than a special teams whiz kid. I'm shocked that the Eagles could have five safeties on the roster and not one reliable veteran backup. Les Bowen did have a good quote from Howie Roseman on the bare safety market:

Everyone’s looking for safeties. They’re really hard to find. We’ve talked about this publicly. We’ve talked about it with our scouts. It’s just a position where guys who used to play it are moving to other spots. Some of it is the advent of the spread offense in college football. Some of it is other positions being glorified.

• Not to rehash an extended discussion I had on Twitter last week, but it seems like the Trent Edwards over Mike Kafka decision may have more to it than meets the eye. It wasn't a month ago that Kafka was considered a lock to be Michael Vick's backup. ​Then he played 9 snaps, broke his hand, and was promptly passed by not one, but two players. Nick Foles certainly played his was into the second-string job, but was Edwards really that impressive? After getting cut by three teams and then sitting out the entire 2011 season, Edwards looked like just a camp body. He didn't get many reps in practice and although he played well in preseason games, that was against third and fourth-stringers. Perhaps it had less to do with Edwards though, and more to do with Foles. Once the rookie showed what he could do (perhaps even established himself as a QBOTF), the difference between Kafka and Edwards was meaningless. All that mattered was picking the player who best complemented (or who was best friends with) Foles.
• Darryl Tapp reportedly took a pay cut to stay with the Eagles. ​It will be interesting to see if they make five defensive ends active on gameday. That's the only reason it makes sense to keep him.
• The team kept both Bryce Brown and Chris Polk. I wonder if, at least for the future, there's some doubt about Dion Lewis. Lewis has shown some flashes, but he's a much better understudy than complement to LeSean McCoy, since everything the former can do the latter can do better. Brown and Polk bring different styles to the table. With any luck, one of them will be able to fill a Correll Buckhalter-type role down the line.

Photo from Getty.​

Final 2012 Eagles 53-Man Roster Prediction

I have to admit, this exercise was a lot easier last year. When I was struggling with the final spots on my predicted roster this year, the problem wasn't finding guys to cut -- it was the opposite. There are half a dozen players that I couldn't care less about making the team. Yet some of them are going to survive cuts, if only by default. Knowing this, I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles shake up the bottom few jobs by bringing in players from the outside.

In any case, here goes nothing:

Quarterback: (3) Vick, Foles, Kafka. What Foles showed in the preseason was far beyond what anyone expected of him. By looking like a natural NFL quarterback with the poise and pocket presence to make all the throws, he most likely played himself into the backup job, or at least QBOTF consideration. Mike Kafka's ceiling looks more like AJ Feeley at this point, but that's not without value. While Trent Edwards is the walking definition of the replacement player you can get off the street, Kafka has been groomed in Philadelphia. 

Running Back: (4) McCoy, Lewis, Brown, Havili. Bryce Brown won the third RB spot by showing his potential. He's still quite raw in most phases of the game, but that's fine in this spot. It's possible the Eagles could keep him inactive in the first few weeks, though, unless he's demonstrated that he can be an asset in special teams. Chris Polk is the odd man out, either to the practice squad or injured reserve. He never showed anything of note, so I wouldn't feel bad letting him go. Stanley Havili played his way into the fullback job against the Patriots, although the team could look at waiver wire castoffs as well.

Tight End: (2) Celek, Harbor. After fans experienced a brief wave of idealism about the Eagles keeping a third tight end, Brett Brackett never demonstrated anything that can't be had on the practice squad.

Wide Receiver: (6) Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Cooper, Johnson, McNutt. Last year Eagles kept six WRs, including an injured player. This year, that player is Riley Cooper. Damaris Johnson doesn't look as dependable as Chad Hall, but his explosive talent makes Hall expendable nonetheless. As for McNutt, he could be a practice squad candidate after a quiet preseason. But I'm not sure you can go into week one with only four healthy wide receivers, especially none of whom are taller than 6'0". Eventually, McNutt could be a replacement for Cooper and/or Avant. Might be worth stashing for now.

Offensive Line: (9) Herremans, Watkins, Kelce, Mathis, Dunlap, Bell, Kelly, Vandervelde, Vallos. This is one of those positions where a waiver wire pickup could be useful. There isn't a single backup that you would feel comfortable stepping in. With that in mind, I think Demetress Bell is only saved by the guaranteed nature of his contract. If they didn't have to pay him $3 million anyway, Bell probably wouldn't be worth keeping.

Defensive End: (5) Cole, Babin, Hunt, Graham, Curry. Having already been surpassed by Philip Hunt and at least matched by Brandon Graham, Darryl Tapp is in trouble. His salary is so much higher than the other backups, that it's just not justifiable. Somebody must be willing to send the Eagles a fifth or sixth round pick for him.

Defensive Tackle: (5) Jenkins, Cox, Landri, Thornton, Dixon. Consummate veteran Mike Patterson will miss at least the first six weeks, and possibly the entire season as his skull heals from brain surgery. With him out of the picture, you need to have enough guys in the middle that you can count on. Cedric Thornton might have shown more than Antonio Dixon this preseason, but the big-bodied Dixon has been a tremendous run stuffer in the past. He's on the bubble, and maybe even trade bait, but I think he sticks for now.

Linebacker: (6) Ryans, Kendricks, Jordan, Rolle, Chaney, Matthews. The main competition was always Akeem Jordan vs. Keenan Clayton, which was superceded this week when Jordan was (at least temporarily) promoted to starting WIL. There's actually a shot that Clayton sticks around as a seventh guy here, though. Keep an eye on the health of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews for the indicator on that. Bobby April could also ask for him as a replacement for Colt Anderson.

Cornerback: (6) Asomguha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marsh, Boykin, Hanson, Hughes. This spot is a matter of trust: how much are you willing to count on Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin? The Eagles have been trying to get rid of Joselio Hanson for two years now, but he's a cheap insurance policy until Boykin is ready. Hughes can play all the positions and special teams.

Safety: (4) Allen, Coleman, Atogwe, Jarrett. Jaiquawn Jarrett has six weeks (i.e. until Anderson returns) to prove that he's a better backup than OJ Atogwe.

Special Teams: (3) Henery, Henry, Dorenbos. Yesterday I would have listed Mat McBriar here. Shows how seriously you should take this whole endeavor.

Photo from Getty.

Same As It Ever Was

Deep breaths.

It was just the first preseason game. We can't expect greatness. We can't even reasonably expect quality. So why do I feel so disappointed after last night's first preseason game? I think theguyotc summed it up well in 140 characters:

The reason people are freaking out over a preseason game is because almost everything bad we've seen we also saw last year. #Eagles

— the guy (@theguyotc) August 10, 2012

Yep, that's it. It isn't the fact that we saw many issues with the team—it's that they were the exact same issues that killed playoff hopes in 2011. Watching the first team defense, I briefly wondered if I was seeing a greatest hits collection of last year's worst tackling attempts. Then there were the deja vu coverage breakdowns. That wasn't supposed to happen. Everyone knew what the problems were and they were getting fixed, right? Let's talk highlights and lowlights:

• Brian Rolle looked worse than I've ever seen him. Really poor angles to the ball, completely whiffed tackles. Shouldn't he have improved this offseason, not regressed?
• On the other hand, some positive signs from rookie Mychal Kendricks. He certainly wasn't perfect, but Kendricks was the only starting linebacker who I saw make a clean wrap-up tackle (twice).
• The whole team is lucky that Michael Vick didn't break a finger or three when his hand slammed into Jason Kelce's helmet. Vick deserves more than to be judged on his first two short series, but initial impressions weren't great. He stepped into pressure multiple times when he had a mostly clean pocket. (Although Kelce shouldn't be getting pushed back either.)
• While we're on the subject of injuries, I hold my breath every time LeSean McCoy touches the ball in the preseason.
• Alex Henery's game-winning field goal was Akers-esque.
• Mike Kafka threw a terrible interception on a screen pass. There isn't a quarterback competition, but Nick Foles looked more poised out there than Kafka.
• The defensive line did stand out. The Steelers o-line was a revolving door all night and some of that may have been on them. Still, at least so far, Jim Washburn is delivering on his promise for an even better line—and that was without both starting ends. Philip Hunt and Brandon Graham looked like Pro-Bowlers for 20 minutes.
• Also exciting: the return game. Brandon Boykin erased all memories of Dion Lewis with his first kick return, and Damaris Johnson showed DeSean-like quickness on punts. Brought tears to my eyes (not really).
• Not faulting Nnamdi Asomugha for the touchdown, which looked like a Jaiquawn Jarrett special. However, Antonio Brown did beat him badly one-on-one for a quick slant route. Quickness isn't really Nnamdi's strength at this point.
• Finally, Nate Allen will look like a Pro Bowler when he comes back and replaces Jarrett. This image is going to haunt my nightmares:

Mike Kafka's VooDoo Trainer

Tim McManus brings us the story of Mike Kafka’s trainer, Jay Schroeder, who has been with him since the QB’s sophomore year of college:

[Schroeder’s] technique literally came to him in a dream, and is based on the assumption that all humans are naturally fast, strong and powerful — it’s just that bad habits and external elements have essentially trained the mind wrong since birth, stunting some abilities. So he retrains it.

Through a series of tests performed by stimulating the nervous system, Schroeder unearths what muscles are not working and which ones are working out of order. Once that is determined, he sends messages to the brain via an electrical modality called POV (for force velocity) that gives the proper information on how to perform what you want to perform.

I can’t be the only one that thinks this doesn’t pass the smell test. Besides, if he’s been working with him for so long, why are the results only evident now? Here’s Schroeder’s website. And more of his SUPER ADVANCED training methods:

“We taught him how to lengthen the appropriate muscles at a high rate of speed so that he could decelerate in the appropriate means, which in turn tells your brain that you can accelerate at a higher level,” said Schroeder. “We prepare him to recover from the strain of arm strength.”

So… Kafka’s been lifting weights?

Throwing Cold Water on Dubious Roster Battles

Reuben Frank put out a list of the top ten roster battles heading into training camp. He hits on some of the biggest ones: Atogwe vs. Coleman, Rolle vs. Chaney, Hanson vs. Boykin. But he also lists a bunch of questionable ones:

• Dion Lewis vs. Bryce Brown? I’m excited to see if Brown can make the transition to the NFL. He clearly has 5x the physical potential of Lewis. But I’m not really seeing the competition for backup running back. There’s just no way Brown is going to come in after sitting out nearly all of college and immediately pick up the complexity of the Eagles offense and the intricacies of pass blocking, other essential bits. Then again, don’t read this as an endorsement of Lewis, who seems like a poor backup to one of the best players on the roster.
• Riley Cooper vs. Damaris Johnson? It’s unclear whether the Eagles will keep five or six wide receivers, but I don’t really see the big receivers competing against the smaller ones. Cooper and Marvin McNutt would serve similar roles on the roster, as would Johnson and Chad Hall. Those are the real one-on-one battles. Winners of each competition will be guaranteed a spot on the roster. After that, all they can do is hope the Eagles keep six guys.
• Clay Harbor vs. Brett Brackett? With the Eagles using more two tight end sets, the question is really whether Brackett can play his way onto the roster — not whether he can beat out Harbor, a more experienced player and much better blocker.
• Mike Kafka vs. Nick Foles? As with Lewis/Brown, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of Kafka. But Frank is the first person to suggest that Foles even has a shot to replace him in his rookie year.

Ahead of all of the above, I’d rate these battles: Demetress Bell vs. King Dunlap, Jaiquawn Jarrett vs. the Chopping Block, Derek Landri vs. Antonio Dixon vs. Cedric Thornton.

Could the Eagles Be Interested in Colt McCoy?

Jason Brewer speculates as to whether the Eagles might be looking at acquiring Colt McCoy on the cheap:

McCoy was a third round pick in 2010 and has started 25 games over his first two seasons in the league. He hasn’t been particularly good, but he is still young, he didn’t have a lot of help in Cleveland and he might benefit from a little Reid/Mornhinweg attention. And if it is true that he could be had for next to nothing, might he better extra QB than Trent Edwards?

Truth be told, that’s what I wanted the Eagles to do instead of drafting another mid-round QB like Nick Foles. McCoy is a poor man’s Kevin Kolb, but at least he has significant starting experience in a similar offense. The problem is that, barring injury, there’s no room for another McCoy on the roster.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Quarterback

What the Eagles did: I’ve already written about the Nick Foles pick at some length here, although only from the perspective that I think he was overdrafted based on his talent. Foles is an odd selection because he seems so far outside the type of player Andy Reid usually goes for. Huge, with a cannon arm but limited athleticism doesn’t exactly echo through the years of Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and Michael Vick. It remains to be seen if Reid and Marty Mornhinweg can either fit him into their offense or adjust the offense to fit him.

Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion that Russell Wilson was the real target. After the Foles pick, Reid denied any interest in Brock Osweiler, but admitted that he “honed in on those two guys,” Foles and Wilson:

“And with these quarterbacks very few of them come from the west coast offense. You saw the kid that went before him (Wisconsin QB Russell) Wilson. He had played in the west coast offense at North Carolina State. There are very few of those that have that opportunity to do that… I liked Wilson, yeah, I sure did. He’s a heck of a player too. We had our eye on those two players and I wish that kid all the best. He’s got a great personality. Not a lot of guys have his size, but he gives you the confidence he’s going to be able to do it.”

Maybe I’m reading too much into his press conference, but my immediate thought after watching it was along the lines of, “that was a much stronger endorsement than Reid gave Foles.” And Wilson just makes so much sense as a player who wouldn’t challenge Vick’s current leadership but could learn a tremendous amount watching him.

Given Wilson was selected only 13 spots ahead of the Eagles by a Seattle team that no one expected to draft another quarterback, Reid and Howie Roseman may have been forced to settle for Foles instead.

What I would have done: Obviously, I wouldn’t have drafted Nick Foles. He doesn’t seem likely to have the talent or the fit to make him a potential starter down the road, nor will he help push Mike Kafka to be a better backup.

The Eagles definitely have a long term need for a franchise quarterback to replace Vick. We won’t know how long term that need is until after this coming make-or-break season for him. Therefore, barring the ability to go get a top talent like Robert Griffin III, drafting someone in the early-middle rounds probably wasn’t the best use of resources. My goal would have been to grab a veteran backup to compete with Kafka instead, perhaps buying low on either Colt McCoy or Seneca Wallace in Cleveland.

Way-too-early prediction: Don’t expect anything from Foles this year, but it will be interesting to see if the Eagles quarterback gurus can help Vick and Kafka rebound from a down year in 2011. As a rule of thumb, one shouldn’t discount the Eagles coaching ability in this area (Vince Young/Mike McMahon nonwithstanding), so I’m reasonably optimistic.

Still, I wonder if we’ve seen the the limits of Vick’s abilities. It’s tough for him to mature into a more responsible quarterback at his age. An improvement from last season is likely, but a return to 2010 may be too much to ask. As to Kafka, I don’t trust him right now but a third-year leap into AJ Feeley territory isn’t out of range.

Oh, and Trent Edwards is not making the team.

Photo from Getty.

Quarterback Draft Inflation: From Kafka to Foles

I have a theory about the Eagles third round selection of quarterback Nick Foles. Despite the relatively early pick, it has nothing to do with replacing Michael Vick or even Mike Kafka. It’s about the NFL draft and the dramatic quarterback inflation that has occurred in the last two years.

Let’s take a quick journey back to 2010. Sam Bradford went first to the Rams and Denver jumped up to 25 overall to get Tim Tebow. The next quarterbacks off the board were Jimmy Clausen (#48), Colt McCoy (#85), and the Eagles’ Kafka (#122). That order of quarterbacks coming off the board — two in the opening round, another one in each of the following — is right in line with what had been going on ever since the draft was whittled down to seven rounds in 1994.

But that pattern, largely consistent for the previous 15 years, was thrown out the window over the last two. In 2011, four quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, and six in the top 40 picks. That rivaled two of the biggest quarterback-heavy drafts in recent memory, 1999 and 2004, despite talent that few considered equal. Then this most recent draft saw another four quarterbacks taken in the first, something that’s never happened in two straight years. Overall, the 2012 draft was slightly behind the 2011 pace, but it was still far ahead of nearly any prior draft.

Here, see for yourself, in table and graphical forms:

What does this mean about Foles? It means that the Eagles likely drafted a worse quarterback in an earlier round than they ever would have before. For example, the team selected Kafka in the fourth round of 2010, presumably to be a long term backup they could groom. He was the fifth quarterback drafted overall.

Foles, taken a round and a half before Kafka, was only the seventh-best quarterback according to draft order. Perhaps this year’s crop of quarterbacks, and Foles in particular, is better than the group teams had to choose from in 2010 — and nearly every prior year. But my impression is that most experts considered this, pre-draft, to be at best an average class after the two stars.

Two years may be too soon to confirm a trend, but the evidence is there. Quarterbacks have never been more highly valued in the NFL. Desperate teams without a franchise signal-caller give big contracts to former backups and trade for anyone with promise. It only makes sense that such a frenzied demand would trickle down to the draft. As that happens, quarterbacks with starting potential rise from the second and third rounds into the top 30 picks, and those who might have been considered late round projects jump up to take their place.

Suddenly, this starts to look less like a fluke and more like a serious shift in how quarterback prospects are valued. We would be wise to view the Foles pick with that in mind.

Photo from Getty.