Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on.
Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans.

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
Kurt Coleman: Bye.
Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line.
Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

Quick Hit Thoughts On The Bryce Brown Show

Bryce Brown is kind of a beast. 19 rushes for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns? That's impressive. Fumbles aside, he looks like a real keeper. At a ripped 225 lbs and having run a 4.37 forty yard dash at his pro day, Brown is an amazing athlete who looked the part of a stud NFL back when he got the chance to carry the load. This is why you draft players with upside in the later rounds, not limited effort guys like Kurt Coleman and Brian Rolle.

Speaking of Kurt Coleman, he was involved in at least one of two horrific coverage breakdowns that gifted Carolina touchdowns. Jon Gruden was in shock up in the booth as the Panthers waltzed into the endzone untouched. Here's what Dan Jeremiah, former scout with the Eagles from 2010-2012 said on Twitter:

Kurt Coleman is a good 4th safety. He should be covering kicks and playing in emergency situations. He's not starter quality.

What happened to Todd Bowles? Even with players like Coleman, this defense shouldn't have gotten worse after the firing of Juan Castillo, right?

Nick Foles is probably not the guy. Everyone hoped that the Eagles had lucked into their future starter when Foles lit up the preseason. But he's been exposed right now as a guy that doesn't look at all ready to play in the NFL. (Anyone know where Mike Kafka is?) Foles was lucky he didn't get picked off two or three times during that game. And even when he completed passes, he nearly got his receivers killed by leading them into nasty hits.

Vinny Curry: He's alive!

Alex Henery is a stud? With three more field goals on Monday night, Henery has hit 19 in a row, breaking the franchise record he previously held with David Akers. Of course, he still hasn't attempted a kick longer than 49 yards this year.

Oh, and the Eagles lost. That puts them in line for the fifth overall pick. Somebody put on some limbo music. How low can you go?

Photo from Getty

The Adjustment Bureau

On-again-off-again blogger Derek Sarley hits us with another great All-22 post about the Eagles defensive issues on Sunday. Prepare to get educated about gap assignments against the run.

Mike P's, Ooh-Op-Ooh, and Other Eagles-Giants Notes

I was sure the Eagles were going to lose.

When they had to settle for a field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. When the Giants kick returner brought out the ensuing kickoff for yet another long gain. When, on 4th and 1, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was charged with pass interference. When, on the following 3rd and 10, Nnamdi Asomugha drew a second pass interference call. Even when the Giants' Ramses Barden mauled Asomugha for the same call going the other way, there was little hope Lawrence Tynes would miss the 54-yard field goal attempt.

And then he did! ... Only Andy Reid, in all his glory, punched his gift horse in the mouth by calling a timeout. Surely, on the second attempt, Tynes would put it in. But then, in one of the most improbable events in an improbable season, he missed again, and the Eagles won.

I think I'm still in shock.

Let's get to a few notes on the game, and from the locker room after:

Isn't it amazing how much better Michael Vick looks when you establish a run game for him? In the second half, when the Eagles fed LeSean McCoy 17 times, Vick went 8 of 11 for 109 yards, plus he scrambled 3 times for another 30. The Giants, bowed by McCoy's dazzling cutbacks, weren't able to get the same pressure on Vick, and he could sit in the pocket more comfortably.
One of the most amazing things about the Eagles approach to the run game yesterday was how they stuck with it despite poor returns early. In the first half McCoy and Bryce Brown had a combined 8 carries for 1 yard. Add in Damaris Johnson's one carry that lost a yard and you get a big zero in the rushing column. Nine times out of ten, Reid and Marty Mornhinweg would have used that as an excuse to abandon the run. Not last night, and it paid off.
The margin of victory was so close that one turnover certainly would have doomed the Eagles, but they finally kept the ball under wraps. That was huge.
DRC was funny in the locker room. He talked about the 4th and 1 play in which he let Victor Cruz get by him for a 30 yard gain: "He gave me the Ooh-Op-Ooh." When the laughs subsided and he was asked to elaborate, he said, "I go one way, he went the other." All in good fun, especially when DRC picked off Eli Manning in the end zone on the next play. He told me that in film study they saw that Eli often stares down Cruz, and if he's covered, will immediately go to his second option, typically the tight end. DRC's job on the play was to spy on Manning, and it worked beautifully.
I also talked to Jason Babin for a bit, because I'm somewhat fascinated by the Eagles stand-up blitz look. One would think that the defense has shown enough film that offenses would be able to shut it down. Babin described the "infinite possibilities" out of that look, and how the offense really can't anticipate where he or his fellow blitzers will end up.
What's going on in the kickoff coverage? Might be as simple as Akeem Jordan and Colt Anderson, the team's two best special teamers, being inactive. But Bobby April has to do a better job regardless.
Post game, Reid said it doesn't feel so good to try to freeze the kicker and then be "surrounded by 66,000 people who want to rip your throat out." If Tynes makes that second field goal attempt, I think there might have been a riot on Broad Street. But nice to finally be on the right end of some field goal luck.
Continuing a trend, the Eagles defense only allowed 17 points despite poor field position. Still, there are serious holes in this defense. Especially down at the red zone, the coordinated coverage between Brandon Boykin in the slot and the linebackers needs work. Receivers running slants and underneath crossing routes seem to be the real problem. Additionally, the combination of Nnamdi Asomugha's lack of speed and Kurt Coleman's quick bite on play action is deadly. At the end if the day, Nnamdi's not getting any younger, so Coleman has to have better awareness.
On a related note, Rodgers-Cromartie (still) doesn't seem too pleased with zone coverage. He talked about how he likes lining up in man coverage, facing the offense head-on. DRC suggested that a lot of the coverage problems they have come from switching out of that base defense: "Things can get a little confusing."
One final thing. When talking with Cullen Jenkins, Babin stopped by to tell his line-buddy that he did "3 Mike P's" in the game. When pressed for the meaning of that expression, Babin called it an inside joke and would only say it meant "everything and nothing." Derek Landri wouldn't elaborate beyond "throwing everything at them." When asked if a "Mike P" could possibly be named after anyone in particular, both players slyly demurred.

Photo from Getty.

The Decision: Safety

The Eagles have a problem at safety and his name is Jaiquawn Jarrett. The team's second round pick a year ago, Jarrett simply doesn't look like an NFL player, let alone one who can step up and start if necessary. I drew up a frame-by-frame analysis of the Steelers fourth and one conversion, in which Jarrett had a starring role, but unfortunately it was lost into the interwebs. We'll have to move on under the assumption that you already know exactly how bad he's been.

With Jarrett looking like a liability in every facet of the game, keeping him on the 53-man roster—once a forgone conclusion—becomes close to impossible. Unless you're still invested in the sunk cost of the second round pick (get over it) or you expect him to improve quickly (don't count on it), any roster spot he takes up is a waste.

The Eagles really only need a maximum of four safeties. Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman are your default starters. I'm not excited about either player and in fact have concerns about their abilities, but after watching Jarrett be the sole cause of destruction last week, I'm willing to accept some level of risk on that front. There's certainly some upside where those two are involved.

After the starters, you need one solid backup to dress on gamedays. This player needs to be able to step up in case of injury or simply to replace an underperforming starter (see above). We're not talking spectacular here, or even average—just someone who isn't going to embarrass himself. That counts out Jarrett and leaves only one real option: O.J. Atogwe.

That's three safeties. Doesn't the team normally keep four, you say? Couldn't Jarrett be stashed there until we're sure he's hopeless? Yes, that's possible. However, it prevents two more attractive roster options. The first is keeping a fourth safety who can be the special teams maven for Bobby April. Last year that was Colt Anderson, and reports say he's close to returning from injury. Even if the team decides to place Anderson on PUP for six weeks, they have a similar player in Tom Nelson. There's some evidence to suggest that April has sway over the final roster spots. It seems likely he'll use that influence to keep a player like Nelson or Anderson.

The second option is that (at least until Anderson returns from injury) the Eagles go with only three safeties and use the extra roster spot to load up on one of their more talent-laden positions. After all, why stretch to accomodate a poor backup at safety when you would rather keep a fifth defensive tackle or sixth cornerback. Depending on the progress of their rehabbing special teams ace, that's the road I see the Eagles taking right now.

In any scenario, you can say goodbye to Jarrett.

Photo from Getty.

Anticipating the Impact of Todd Bowles

Todd Bowles is 6’2”, 203 lbs. Well, at least he was that big when he played in the NFL as a free safety for eight years.

Normally, the height and weight of a coach wouldn’t matter much. But in the case of Bowles, we can draw a clear line between his frame and his personnel preferences as a secondary coach.

As you can see at right, teams where Bowles has been the secondary coach consistently draft tall defensive backs (the same way Jim Washburn only picked tall defensive ends). In fact, he’s only drafted one defensive back under six feet since 2003, and that was in the seventh round. Clearly, Bowles’s preference is for bigger, more physical players. He probably would not, for example, have endorsed the selections of Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, two 5’10” corners.

More relevant: Asante Samuel is not the type of cornerback Bowles had in mind as his prototypical starter. As I’ve mentioned before, the Samuel trade was about ego, a broken locker room, and justifying the 2011 personnel decisions — not on-the-field performance or the salary cap. But I doubt Bowles was campaigning for Samuel to stick around.

Instead, he’s probably quite content with his starters at cornerback for 2012. Nnamdi Asomugha is 6’2”, 210 lbs and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is 6’2”, 182 lbs. Hopefully Bowles can help mold a solid defensive backfield around the two of them. Curtis Marsh also stands to gain quite a lot from the Bowles hire, since his athletic 6’1”, 197 lbs frame would be perfect for his new coach’s system.

On the other hand, Kurt Coleman probably shouldn’t get too comfortable as a starter. I’ve discussed his athletic limitations before, but Bowles may be particularly keen to find someone with a higher ceiling. The counter-example of course, is 5’9” Brandon Boykin, whose selection Bowles must have approved. But perhaps he is willing to make an exception for the physical slot corner, regardless of his size, given the value he presented in the fourth round.

Alright, you’re probably saying, this is fun roster speculation and all, but what does it really mean? I’ll admit, not much right now. We already knew who the likely starters were and presumably Bowles will play whomever is the best in practice, not go simply by their official measurements. The more important question remains: is Bowles really a great coach? Every reporter hailed the addition as brilliant, but I’m less impressed by the fossil record:

Photo from Getty.

Eagles Sign OJ Atogwe; Whither Jaiquawn Jarrett?

According to reports, the Eagles have signed safety OJ Atogwe to what is likely a one-year, veteran minimum deal. Having some veteran insurance is something I’ve advocated this offseason, so I’m glad the Eagles are willing to make a low risk deal in that direction.

However, this again brings up questions about Jaiquawn Jarrett. It was just last week that I wondered if Jarrett might actually be in danger of being cut this year, and adding Atogwe doesn’t help him. Again, I don’t mean to write off a player based only on his rookie season, but I’ve been surprised at how little the Eagles have talked him up as a potential starter or even contributor. Other players like Danny Watkins and Curtis Marsh have gotten much more press as to a potential sophomore bump.

Jarrett needs to either win the third safety job — a true backup role — or find a way to contribute on special teams. Otherwise you’re just keeping him around to save face.

Still Waiting for Jaiquawn Jarrett to Show Something

Dave Spadaro, via Tommy Lawlor:

I don’t see Kurt Coleman being challenged for the starting job by Jaiquawn Jarrett. Coleman had a very strong spring and is in terrific shape. The real question is: Where does Jarrett fit into the equation here?

Spuds coaches his comment with the idea that Coleman is just doing a great job, but when Jarrett can’t even get a qualified endorsement from the team’s own media (let alone coaches or other players), it’s very worrisome. Jarrett has no legitimate competition for back up safety, but if he can’t demonstrate anything positive now, over a year since he was drafted, at some point the team has to admit the mistake publicly and cut its losses. I’m starting to wonder if that time will come this offseason.