Coach Chip Strikes Back, Or Something

It's amazing what a win over Dallas will do for your spirits. The Eagles went into the bye week at 3-4, reeling from a loss to Carolina that wasn't particularly close. Post-bye, post-victory over a hated rival, and they're 4-4, with the wind at their back, a rejuvenated team.

All it took was a few fourth down tries, a revived running game, and a kicker that finally made a clutch field goal longer than 50 yards. Suddenly it's "the biggest win of the Chip Kelly era" (which is really saying something about the Chip Kelly era, unfortunately).

Sam Bradford is fixed. He's "continuing to flip the script on his legion of detractors". Apparently, the main issue was footwork, with QB coach Ryan Day noticing a problem three weeks back. "The results have been evident," writes the Inquirer.

Have they?

The funny thing about the win on Sunday night is that on paper, not a lot looks different from the losses earlier in the season. If you're going to give the Eagles credit for any improvement, it has to be in the run game, where they've reeled off four straight games with more than 150 rushing yards. Kelly also seems to be mixing up the play calling a bit better.

But Bradford suddenly proving he's the guy of the future? This team, suddenly a legit playoff contender? Seems like wishful thinking.

Take Bradford on Sunday. His stats were solid: 25 for 36, 69% completion rate, 295 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But the funny thing about those numbers is how much they were influenced by one great overtime drive. In regulation, his stats weren't quite so good: 20 for 31, 65% completion rate, 239 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 0 INT. That's arguably worse than Matt Cassel, who completed a higher percentage of passes for more yards and 3 TDs (plus one bad INT).

The point is not that Bradford's game-winning drive has no value. But just remember that he was one Caleb Sturgis screw up or one heads-tails controversy from being the same just-good-enough-to-lose Bradford we've seen all season. If Jordan Hicks tears his pectoral muscle before grabbing that pick six, the Eagles don't make it to overtime and there is no "Sam Bradford has fixed it" narrative worth telling.

Nor, really, is there one for the Eagles, who had two weeks to prepare and narrowly avoided falling to a Cowboys team that lost 5 straight games coming in and had posted just 91 passing yards against Seattle a week earlier. This is a 4-4 team that has played a bunch of bad teams in a bad division. Luckily, they play more going forward: their next three opponents are a combined 7-17.

Maybe this group has finally turned a corner, and will cruise to 7-4 before heading to New England. I hope so. But don't be surprised if this turnaround is a mirage, and inconsistency dooms the Eagles to underperform down the stretch. That would simply be par for the course this season.

Your 2014 Eagles Roster Predictions Rumble

Who's in? Who's out? That's what our trusty beat reporters are predicting. Here's the grand master list of predictions before (as) the actual cuts come out. Click to embiggen:

Where everybody agrees:

Quarterback
Outside Linebacker
Cornerback
Punter and Long Snapper

Where everybody almost agrees:

Tight End: Only Jimmy Kempski thinks Trey Burton is staying.
Defensive Line: Martin Frank is the only reporter to knock Taylor Hart off the roster. Eliot Shor-Parks is the only one to put Damion Square on.
Inside Linebacker: Most think the Eagles keep three. Geoff Mosher likes Emmanuel Acho's chances, though, and Reuben Frank and Ed Kracz think Casey Matthews sticks.
Safety: Did the Eagles waste a 5th round pick on Ed Reynolds? Only 4 beats have him making the roster. Everybody else is set.

The disagreements:

Running Back: LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are locks, but hardly anyone agrees on the rest. There are 8 different combinations of backs among the 13 reporters polled.
Wide Receiver: Josh Huff is on, to everyone except Martin Frank. Brad Smith also, to all except Frank (again) and Mosher. After that, it's a toss up for Jeff Maehl and Arrelious Benn to take the "blocking and special teams WR" role.
Offensive Line: 8 linemen or 9? Dennis Kelly or Andrew Gardner? These are the questions that keep us awake at night.
Kicker: Although, to be fair, every prediction in favor of Alex Henery was made before last night's final preseason game in which Cody Parkey smashed two 50+ yard field goals.

Ranking The 2013 NFL Kickers (Or Why Alex Henery Doesn't Deserve Your Support)

Everyone knows that NFL kickers are getting better. The numbers make this obvious. We saw an all-time high for field goal accuracy in 2013: over 86%. And that's despite many more long attempts. Field goal tries from over 50 yards have increased 57% in the last decade.

When ranking kickers, we have to take into account the new landscape. For an example, just look close to home. After his first three seasons, Alex Henery is tied for fourth all time in overall field goal accuracy among players with at least 80 attempts. But if you check out the top 20 on that list, 17 of them played in the last two years. This is like the late 1990s in baseball -- everyone's breaking records.

More to the point, we can't quote field goal accuracy without taking distance into account. As Jimmy Kempski noted, Henery doesn't look nearly as good when you compare him to his peers. Among full time kickers since 2011, Henery is tied for the fewest attempts over 50 yards (5). He also has the shortest "long field goal" (51). If everyone else is taking longer attempts and making them, Henery's value is significantly lower than his overall accuracy would suggest.

Last offseason, I took a deep dive into Henery's value, comparing him to other kickers in 2012. By generating an estimated value for every kick, we could plot how much each kicker actually contributed to his team as compared to the league standard. The results put Henery just a hair above average, with the noted caveat of having not a single make over 50 yards.

This year I wanted to go deeper. To start, I pulled all 2013 field goal attempts and plotted them out. While upgrading from last year's 5-yard buckets required a little smoothing, the granular data this year should be more exact:

Cool, right? As you can see, kicks from in close are automatic and everything up to about 32 yards out is a 90% success rate or higher. But perhaps even more impressive, kickers in 2013 maintained over 80% accuracy up to 45 yards out -- and 70% all the way to 55 yard attempts. The data gets meager from there, but the graph is proof of how great NFL kickers have become.

Anyway, with this data, it becomes fairly easy to generate an estimated point value for every field goal attempt. For example, a 35 yard try is worth 2.63 points while a 50 yarder is worth 2.1 points. If a kicker makes a kick from that distance, he adds points to his team above the expected value. Missing, he loses his team the expected points. (The only major caveat here is weather conditions. Certainly a field goal into strong wind would have a lower expected value than one in a dome.)

This year, we'll also add kickoff analysis. I spent some time playing with large data sets of kickoffs and ultimately was disappointed by the many problems in the NFL's play by play data. So at least until Football Outsiders releases its always-awesome game charting this summer, I can't work with the type of granular data on field goals above. The next best thing is Pro Football Focus' kickoff stats. They track distance, touchbacks, and average yard line start. I adjusted that data to eliminate the effect of onside kicks, but there are other variables (including weather) which still exist outside the scope of the investigation.

For kickoffs, the goal is to reach a similar expected value score. With help from Derek Sarley, we calculated a quick and dirty correlation between touchbacks and starting drive position of .67, suggesting that kickers have about two-thirds of the responsibility on kickoffs. Using that, we can multiply each kicker's total drive start yardage difference from the league average by .67, then by the approximately 0.06 expected points each extra yard is worth. Again, it's not a perfect score, but it will give us a good estimate.

Got all that? Click on the table below to enlarge the full results:

Hopefully the table isn't too confusing. Let's break it down. The left hand side is kickoff data, and you can see adjusted kickoff distance and drive start. From there you can calculate points generated in relation to the average kicker (KICKOFF PTS). On the right side are field goals, first the basic data then the estimated values based on the calculations above, leading to the FG PTS above or below average. Finally, TOTAL PTS combines the two scores and ranks all kickers (including those who only kickoff or attempt field goals).

The best kickers of 2013 did well on both metrics. Dan Bailey of the Cowboys, for example, helped force opponents to start their drives 1.9 yards further back than average. Over the course of the season, that was worth just over a touchdown in field position. On field goals, he made over 93% of his attempts, when the average kicker would have only made 84.5%. That was another 8 points he generated for Dallas, bringing Bailey's total points over average to a league-leading 15.1. If we can translate that using Brian Burke's data at Advanced NFL Stats, Bailey was worth about as much in expected points added as the 25th-ranked quarterback.

On the other end of the spectrum, Henery ranked third-worst in the NFL last year. He lost the Eagles approximately 10.8 points, split about equally between kickoffs and field goals. Henery was near the bottom of the pack in kickoff distance and average drive start, losing 1.6 yards per kickoff. Meanwhile, his 80% field goal accuracy should have been better, given he took mostly shorter kicks. The league average accuracy for his attempts would have been 85.8%.

Though Henery has some ardent supporters, it's tough to find any silver lining for him in these numbers. Only two kickers in this sample had worse results: a historically-bad rookie and a veteran who was fired in December. Maybe Henery can improve this offseason and post a better effort in 2014. But I wouldn't count on it. At the very least, the Eagles must bring in competition for what is clearly one of their weakest positions.

Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on.
Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans.

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
Kurt Coleman: Bye.
Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line.
Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

Where Does Alex Henery Rank Among NFL Kickers?

On paper, Alex Henery had a great 2012 campaign. The Eagles sophomore kicker made 27 of 31 field goal attempts, including a franchise-record 22 in a row. He has been a consistently accurate kicker since the Eagles drafted him in the fourth round in 2011.

Still, Henery has not yet moved from "reliable" to "weapon," the way David Akers once was. He may be headed in the right direction though. In 2011, he attempted only four field goals from 40-49 yards out, and only two beyond that. He made five of those six attempts, but didn't exhibit a big leg. In fact, he struggled to hit long field goals in warm-ups, and Andy Reid shied away from kicking field goals of 50 yards or more.

Last year was a good year for Henery, and he quieted some of the doubters. In addition to his perfect 22-kick string, he connected on 11 of 12 attempts from 40 to 49 yards out. That was huge. Still, his longest make was only 49 yards. Henery's only attempt from beyond that was a 58-yard miss. That makes judging his performance tricky.

In order to do so, let's back up and look at the entire league. I pulled every field goal attempt from the raw play by play data (including those negated by penalty, if I could, but removing blocks) and plotted field goal percentage in 5 yard buckets. Here's what it looks like:

Keep in mind that at the top end (above 55 yards), there were only 24 total kicks, so the sample size is limited there. But overall this is the state of field goals in today's NFL. Any kick up to 35 yards should have a greater than 90% chance of success. Even up to 50 yards out, NFL kickers are averaging over 75% accuracy. And they're still more likely to make a kick than miss it up to 55 yards distance. That's mind blowing.

The frustrating thing about field goal stats is that folks rarely look beyond the overall percentage or a particularly high-profile miss. I tried to do that with the table below, where I plotted every field goal against the "expected" likelihood that it would be made, based on the distance buckets above. The difference between the points they accumulated (or would have, + penalties - blocks) and the expected points shows us how valuable each kicker was in 2012:

The numbers aren't too surprising. Blair Walsh, rookie kicker for the Vikings, came in at number one, scoring 13.4 points more than the "average kicker" would have. He only missed three field goals all year, but more importantly, he made 10 of 10 kicks from beyond 50 yards. That's incredible (even if he was playing in a dome). At the other end of the spectrum is Mason Crosby of the Packers and our old friend David Akers. The former Eagles kicker connected on only 9 of 19 kicks further than 40 yards. It remains to be seen whether that was simply bad luck or a sign that retirement may be coming up for Akers.

As for Henery, he ranked 12th. His field goal percentage was slightly higher than what was expected, and it gave him a 2.5 point lead over the average. That's certainly good, but it's not — to steal a phrase from Joe Flacco — elite. Perhaps Henery just didn't have enough opportunities for long kicks, but it would be hard to blame Eagles fans who would rather the team have spent a 6th round pick on Walsh than a 4th round pick on Henery. Hopefully he can continue to improve and justify that investment in 2013 and beyond.

Photo from Getty.

Mike P's, Ooh-Op-Ooh, and Other Eagles-Giants Notes

I was sure the Eagles were going to lose.

When they had to settle for a field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. When the Giants kick returner brought out the ensuing kickoff for yet another long gain. When, on 4th and 1, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was charged with pass interference. When, on the following 3rd and 10, Nnamdi Asomugha drew a second pass interference call. Even when the Giants' Ramses Barden mauled Asomugha for the same call going the other way, there was little hope Lawrence Tynes would miss the 54-yard field goal attempt.

And then he did! ... Only Andy Reid, in all his glory, punched his gift horse in the mouth by calling a timeout. Surely, on the second attempt, Tynes would put it in. But then, in one of the most improbable events in an improbable season, he missed again, and the Eagles won.

I think I'm still in shock.

Let's get to a few notes on the game, and from the locker room after:

Isn't it amazing how much better Michael Vick looks when you establish a run game for him? In the second half, when the Eagles fed LeSean McCoy 17 times, Vick went 8 of 11 for 109 yards, plus he scrambled 3 times for another 30. The Giants, bowed by McCoy's dazzling cutbacks, weren't able to get the same pressure on Vick, and he could sit in the pocket more comfortably.
One of the most amazing things about the Eagles approach to the run game yesterday was how they stuck with it despite poor returns early. In the first half McCoy and Bryce Brown had a combined 8 carries for 1 yard. Add in Damaris Johnson's one carry that lost a yard and you get a big zero in the rushing column. Nine times out of ten, Reid and Marty Mornhinweg would have used that as an excuse to abandon the run. Not last night, and it paid off.
The margin of victory was so close that one turnover certainly would have doomed the Eagles, but they finally kept the ball under wraps. That was huge.
DRC was funny in the locker room. He talked about the 4th and 1 play in which he let Victor Cruz get by him for a 30 yard gain: "He gave me the Ooh-Op-Ooh." When the laughs subsided and he was asked to elaborate, he said, "I go one way, he went the other." All in good fun, especially when DRC picked off Eli Manning in the end zone on the next play. He told me that in film study they saw that Eli often stares down Cruz, and if he's covered, will immediately go to his second option, typically the tight end. DRC's job on the play was to spy on Manning, and it worked beautifully.
I also talked to Jason Babin for a bit, because I'm somewhat fascinated by the Eagles stand-up blitz look. One would think that the defense has shown enough film that offenses would be able to shut it down. Babin described the "infinite possibilities" out of that look, and how the offense really can't anticipate where he or his fellow blitzers will end up.
What's going on in the kickoff coverage? Might be as simple as Akeem Jordan and Colt Anderson, the team's two best special teamers, being inactive. But Bobby April has to do a better job regardless.
Post game, Reid said it doesn't feel so good to try to freeze the kicker and then be "surrounded by 66,000 people who want to rip your throat out." If Tynes makes that second field goal attempt, I think there might have been a riot on Broad Street. But nice to finally be on the right end of some field goal luck.
Continuing a trend, the Eagles defense only allowed 17 points despite poor field position. Still, there are serious holes in this defense. Especially down at the red zone, the coordinated coverage between Brandon Boykin in the slot and the linebackers needs work. Receivers running slants and underneath crossing routes seem to be the real problem. Additionally, the combination of Nnamdi Asomugha's lack of speed and Kurt Coleman's quick bite on play action is deadly. At the end if the day, Nnamdi's not getting any younger, so Coleman has to have better awareness.
On a related note, Rodgers-Cromartie (still) doesn't seem too pleased with zone coverage. He talked about how he likes lining up in man coverage, facing the offense head-on. DRC suggested that a lot of the coverage problems they have come from switching out of that base defense: "Things can get a little confusing."
One final thing. When talking with Cullen Jenkins, Babin stopped by to tell his line-buddy that he did "3 Mike P's" in the game. When pressed for the meaning of that expression, Babin called it an inside joke and would only say it meant "everything and nothing." Derek Landri wouldn't elaborate beyond "throwing everything at them." When asked if a "Mike P" could possibly be named after anyone in particular, both players slyly demurred.

Photo from Getty.

Touchbacks Skyrocket to 43.5 Percent

Paul Carr, for the ESPN Stats & Info blog:

Expressed as a percentage, 53.4 percent of kickoffs were returned this season, a huge drop from 80.1 percent in 2010.

In a related note, touchbacks skyrocketed to 43.5 percent this season, more than two and a half times last year’s rate of 16.4 percent.

I was pretty close. My analysis of the new rule, based on last year’s kickoffs, suggested just under 40 percent touchbacks. The difference is small but perhaps meaningful. While returners brought back more deep kicks, kickers may have used the shorter field try for distance over hangtime.

(Via BGN)

Alex Henery's Questionable Leg Strength

Tommy Lawlor, in his always detailed game review:

Speaking of FGs…a few people (me included) wondered why Reid didn’t try for a FG in the late 3rd Qtr when we had the ball at the NYJ 36. We punted. We then stopped the Jets and got the ball back at the 39. 3 plays later we scored a TD. I won’t lie. I wanted to see Henery kick a long FG. We know the guy is good from 30-the low 40s. We have no idea about 45-55. Mystery.

It’s not that much of a mystery, unfortunately. At least at this point in his career, Henery doesn’t have the leg to consistently make field goals from beyond 45 yards.

Remember when David Akers used to crush 60-yarders in warmups? Before every game I’ve attended in the press box this year, I’ve watched Henery stuggled to make the distance from 50 yards out. The transition in the kicking game is an untold story this year.