Three Cheers for the Boyking

Perhaps because I'd rather focus on the good than the bad, I feel like I've been using the phrase "one of the few brights spots" a lot over the last few weeks. When it comes to the 2012 Eagles and silver linings, most of them have to do with this fantastic rookie class. I mean, look at the list. Two players who have started from week one. Another increasingly dominant force in the middle. Three more players who have become starters down the stretch and flashed potential. That's already a tremendous haul.

Right in the middle of that group is Brandon Boykin, the rookie slot cornerback. These days, when NFL defenses play nickel about half the time, the third corner is a vitally important player -- although it requires a particular skill set. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, for example, had athleticism but not the smarts, technique, or quickness to make a good slot corner. Joselio Hanson was the team's answer there for a long time, but drafting Boykin made him immediately expendable.

Coming out of Georgia, Boykin missed the NFL combine after fracturing his leg. While he was once considered a second round pick, he fell down to the fourth round, where the Eagles picked him up. At that price, there's little downside. Even if he can never be anything more than a slot corner, Boykin can be a valuable pick.

Boykin showed right away that he belongs in the NFL, which is more than other recent draft picks like Curtis Marsh and Trevard Lindley have done. His transition hasn't been perfect: there have been a few mental breakdowns and some teams have tried to exploit his lack of experience. Still, overall Boykin hasn't made anyone nostalgic for Hanson. According to Pro Football Focus, there have been 20 cornerbacks who have played at least 50 percent of their team's slot snaps. In his first season, Boykin already fits comfortably into that group:

There are really three parts of a cornerback's job in coverage. First, keep tight coverage and deter the quarterback from throwing the ball your way. Boykin ranks seventh among other slot corners at this, measured by targets per snap. He's also very good at the second part of a cornerback's job -- preventing the catch. Boykin ranks third, with a low 56.3 completion percentage on balls thrown his way. Only in the final category does Boykin struggle. He ranks 18th out of 20 in yards per catch allowed, meaning that when Boykin's receiver does catch the ball, he often turns it into a big gain.

You can understand why this split might occur. Boykin has been exploited in coverage a few times, and missed a few tackles. He has allowed fewer passes to be completed, but then has committed more mistakes after the catch. Hopefully, in his second season, Boykin can improve on his performance and limit those long gains.

One final note: in addition to the 208 coverage snaps Boykin took in the slot, he also played outside for 108 snaps. His numbers were similar. Boykin's targets per snap and completion percentages actually went down slightly, although his yards per catch average grew. It's probably too small of a sample size to draw any hard conclusions, especially since most of what we know about his profile suggests that he's best in the slot. Still, if Boykin's ceiling is actually higher, it could soften the blow of the likely departure of at least one, if not two, starting corners this offseason.

Photo from Getty.

Final Thoughts on the Final Cuts

The final cuts are in, and I was wrong on so many counts. Oh well, not all of us can be Geoff Mosher.​ Here are my last thoughts on the roster as it currently stands:

• ​I'm really kicking myself for not marking down a cut for Joselio Hanson. It's not like I didn't see this coming. He played poorly in 2011 (Sheil Kapadia noted that his Success Rate dropped dramatically) and the Eagles actually drafted his clear replacement. This should have been an easy call, but I was confused by the Eagles not giving Boykin much of a chance to start in the preseason.
• ​Speaking of the secondary, is anyone else worried about the safety position? I'm on record as being relatively skeptical about the starters, but all in all they should be fine. The problem comes if they don't play well consistently—or one of them, shocker, gets hurt. Are you going to turn to Jaiquawn Jarrett? What about newly acquired youngster David Sims? Colt Anderson, coming off an injury, has never been thought of as anything more than a special teams whiz kid. I'm shocked that the Eagles could have five safeties on the roster and not one reliable veteran backup. Les Bowen did have a good quote from Howie Roseman on the bare safety market:

Everyone’s looking for safeties. They’re really hard to find. We’ve talked about this publicly. We’ve talked about it with our scouts. It’s just a position where guys who used to play it are moving to other spots. Some of it is the advent of the spread offense in college football. Some of it is other positions being glorified.

• Not to rehash an extended discussion I had on Twitter last week, but it seems like the Trent Edwards over Mike Kafka decision may have more to it than meets the eye. It wasn't a month ago that Kafka was considered a lock to be Michael Vick's backup. ​Then he played 9 snaps, broke his hand, and was promptly passed by not one, but two players. Nick Foles certainly played his was into the second-string job, but was Edwards really that impressive? After getting cut by three teams and then sitting out the entire 2011 season, Edwards looked like just a camp body. He didn't get many reps in practice and although he played well in preseason games, that was against third and fourth-stringers. Perhaps it had less to do with Edwards though, and more to do with Foles. Once the rookie showed what he could do (perhaps even established himself as a QBOTF), the difference between Kafka and Edwards was meaningless. All that mattered was picking the player who best complemented (or who was best friends with) Foles.
• Darryl Tapp reportedly took a pay cut to stay with the Eagles. ​It will be interesting to see if they make five defensive ends active on gameday. That's the only reason it makes sense to keep him.
• The team kept both Bryce Brown and Chris Polk. I wonder if, at least for the future, there's some doubt about Dion Lewis. Lewis has shown some flashes, but he's a much better understudy than complement to LeSean McCoy, since everything the former can do the latter can do better. Brown and Polk bring different styles to the table. With any luck, one of them will be able to fill a Correll Buckhalter-type role down the line.

Photo from Getty.​

Notes on Cut Down Day

The Eagles need to get down to a 53-man roster by 9pm tonight. I already published my final roster prediction yesterday. However, here are somethings to watch for:

• Apparently Joselio Hanson was already cut. So much for one of my predictions. Really should have stuck with my gut on that one.
• OJ Atogwe's injury throws a wrench into an already broken safety position. If his hamstring problem is anything more than day-to-day, I expect the team to cut him and find someone else off the street. After flirting with the waiver wire all preseason, Jaiquawn Jarrett is definitely going to survive.
• Other than safety, the interior offensive line is the place most likely to see a free agent pickup. I chose Steve Vallos over Dallas Reynolds basically at random. Good possibility that neither makes the squad.
• I really don't understand the fascination with Trent Edwards. I wasn't able to watch the game last night, but is anyone surprised that a quarterback with 33 regular season starts under his belt would have no problem playing against third and fourth string players? Replacement-level veterans like that are always available off the street.
• Presumably the trade phones will be ringing all day about Darryl Tapp. I really don't see him sticking around, but if the Eagles don't get an offer they like in time, maybe he stays for a day or two past the deadline.

Final 2012 Eagles 53-Man Roster Prediction

I have to admit, this exercise was a lot easier last year. When I was struggling with the final spots on my predicted roster this year, the problem wasn't finding guys to cut -- it was the opposite. There are half a dozen players that I couldn't care less about making the team. Yet some of them are going to survive cuts, if only by default. Knowing this, I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles shake up the bottom few jobs by bringing in players from the outside.

In any case, here goes nothing:

Quarterback: (3) Vick, Foles, Kafka. What Foles showed in the preseason was far beyond what anyone expected of him. By looking like a natural NFL quarterback with the poise and pocket presence to make all the throws, he most likely played himself into the backup job, or at least QBOTF consideration. Mike Kafka's ceiling looks more like AJ Feeley at this point, but that's not without value. While Trent Edwards is the walking definition of the replacement player you can get off the street, Kafka has been groomed in Philadelphia. 

Running Back: (4) McCoy, Lewis, Brown, Havili. Bryce Brown won the third RB spot by showing his potential. He's still quite raw in most phases of the game, but that's fine in this spot. It's possible the Eagles could keep him inactive in the first few weeks, though, unless he's demonstrated that he can be an asset in special teams. Chris Polk is the odd man out, either to the practice squad or injured reserve. He never showed anything of note, so I wouldn't feel bad letting him go. Stanley Havili played his way into the fullback job against the Patriots, although the team could look at waiver wire castoffs as well.

Tight End: (2) Celek, Harbor. After fans experienced a brief wave of idealism about the Eagles keeping a third tight end, Brett Brackett never demonstrated anything that can't be had on the practice squad.

Wide Receiver: (6) Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Cooper, Johnson, McNutt. Last year Eagles kept six WRs, including an injured player. This year, that player is Riley Cooper. Damaris Johnson doesn't look as dependable as Chad Hall, but his explosive talent makes Hall expendable nonetheless. As for McNutt, he could be a practice squad candidate after a quiet preseason. But I'm not sure you can go into week one with only four healthy wide receivers, especially none of whom are taller than 6'0". Eventually, McNutt could be a replacement for Cooper and/or Avant. Might be worth stashing for now.

Offensive Line: (9) Herremans, Watkins, Kelce, Mathis, Dunlap, Bell, Kelly, Vandervelde, Vallos. This is one of those positions where a waiver wire pickup could be useful. There isn't a single backup that you would feel comfortable stepping in. With that in mind, I think Demetress Bell is only saved by the guaranteed nature of his contract. If they didn't have to pay him $3 million anyway, Bell probably wouldn't be worth keeping.

Defensive End: (5) Cole, Babin, Hunt, Graham, Curry. Having already been surpassed by Philip Hunt and at least matched by Brandon Graham, Darryl Tapp is in trouble. His salary is so much higher than the other backups, that it's just not justifiable. Somebody must be willing to send the Eagles a fifth or sixth round pick for him.

Defensive Tackle: (5) Jenkins, Cox, Landri, Thornton, Dixon. Consummate veteran Mike Patterson will miss at least the first six weeks, and possibly the entire season as his skull heals from brain surgery. With him out of the picture, you need to have enough guys in the middle that you can count on. Cedric Thornton might have shown more than Antonio Dixon this preseason, but the big-bodied Dixon has been a tremendous run stuffer in the past. He's on the bubble, and maybe even trade bait, but I think he sticks for now.

Linebacker: (6) Ryans, Kendricks, Jordan, Rolle, Chaney, Matthews. The main competition was always Akeem Jordan vs. Keenan Clayton, which was superceded this week when Jordan was (at least temporarily) promoted to starting WIL. There's actually a shot that Clayton sticks around as a seventh guy here, though. Keep an eye on the health of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews for the indicator on that. Bobby April could also ask for him as a replacement for Colt Anderson.

Cornerback: (6) Asomguha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marsh, Boykin, Hanson, Hughes. This spot is a matter of trust: how much are you willing to count on Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin? The Eagles have been trying to get rid of Joselio Hanson for two years now, but he's a cheap insurance policy until Boykin is ready. Hughes can play all the positions and special teams.

Safety: (4) Allen, Coleman, Atogwe, Jarrett. Jaiquawn Jarrett has six weeks (i.e. until Anderson returns) to prove that he's a better backup than OJ Atogwe.

Special Teams: (3) Henery, Henry, Dorenbos. Yesterday I would have listed Mat McBriar here. Shows how seriously you should take this whole endeavor.

Photo from Getty.

The Decision: Cornerback

The roster cuts at cornerback are particularly interesting because there's such a mish-mash of styles, experience levels, and upside among the group. Unlike at linebacker, for example, where most of the decision comes down to the last spot, there are three or four different potential combinations of players the Eagles could end up with.

Let's start, where else, with the starters. Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie make a formidable pair of corners. I'm optimistic, especially about DRC, now that he's in his normal spot on the outside. Hopefully Juan Castillo will use Asomugha better this year, and he'll show some of his Pro Bowl form.

The only question with Nnamdi is his age. I ran a screen for cornerbacks who, since 1990, started at least 14 games in their age 30 season. That's a set that roughly represents Asomugha's health and skill set as of last year. After that season, the 59 cornerbacks I tracked (excluding active players) started an average of 35 more games in the rest of their career — 11 at age 31, 8.5 at 32, 6 at 33, and declining further beyond that. Note that such numbers include games started at safety, where many older corners finish their careers.

While we don't yet know how Asomugha will hold up going forward, both in skill and health, this may be a good guide for estimating his longevity: don't count on him being a starting-caliber corner beyond another year or two. That affects how you decide who to cut around him.

After the starters, there are two young players who will definitely make the team: Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin. But how far along they are along will greatly impact the final open spots. Ideally, Marsh and Boykin would be the third and fourth cornerbacks, with the former outside and the latter taking over the slot. However, it's not at all clear that they are ready for such responsibility.

That leaves a big question mark next to the name of Joselio Hanson. Going into training camp, Hanson was on the outside looking in. He was cut last year (before being re-signed to a lower salary) and then the team drafted his replacement in Boykin. Plus, last year the Eagles performed rather miserably in the dime defense — the formation he was most often involved in. All that said, it doesn't seem that Boykin has taken hold of the position just yet. Hanson is the only remaining veteran on the depth chart. Can the Eagle afford to ditch him just yet?

If the team stays with only five cornerbacks, Brandon Hughes is the player who could make it instead of Hanson. Hughes is a solid special teams player and has more experience than either Marsh or Boykin, making him a potentially worthwhile addition. On the other hand, his upside isn't as high as either of the other two players, so if he isn't an upgrade on them now, there may not be a spot for him.

Finally, there's Cliff Harris. Before getting injured, the undrafted free agent made headlines in training camp grabbing interceptions left and right. Depending on his return to the field, Harris might be someone you stash as a sixth cornerback instead of risking that he wouldn't make it to the practice squad.

Predicting cornerback this year is tough because there are so many unknown factors. Most importantly, we don't know how much Todd Bowles and the rest of the defensive coaches trust Marsh and Boykin, nor how much they want to replace Hanson. Reading the tea leaves on the latter, it doesn't seem like they want to keep the veteran corner around. But I personally haven't seen anything that yet that would make me comfortable with the younger guys getting significant playing time.

The easiest way to project cuts is to be safe, and assume that the team goes heavy on cornerbacks with 6 players, keeping Hanson and Hughes. Harris will probably make it to the practice squad. That's what I'm leaning toward right now, although tomorrow I may be back on the bandwagon for ditching Hanson. Note that the youngsters could make the decision a lot easier by playing well in the next two preseason games.

Photo from Getty.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Cornerback

What the Eagles did: Cornerback was a mess last year. We’ve been over that. You can’t just throw three Pro Bowlers with different styles together and expect things to work out of the box. Thus, the inevitable happened: Asante Samuel was shipped out of town.

What the loss of Samuel means to this defense is tough to gauge. On one hand, he’s still a great cornerback. While his interceptions were down in 2011, other stats showed that Asante was as good as ever. On the other hand, his limited style of play clearly forced running mates Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie into suboptimal positions. Asomugha has historically shined when he locks on one of the opposing wide receivers, and Rodgers-Cromartie’s closing speed makes him a better fit on the outside.

Now they can play the way they want, and it’s up to new secondary coach Todd Bowles to make them comfortable. So far the talk has been that the coverages are simpler, which should be a relief to fans. The numbers (re-posted below) show that Nnamdi and DRC can both be very effective starters — as long as they’re playing in the right spots.

Another downside to losing Samuel, however, is that the depth behind the Eagles two starters is relatively murky. Who are the backups on the outside if either player gets hurt? Curtis Marsh, second-year player out of Utah State, is athletically gifted, but is a relative newcomer to the cornerback position. He played a grand total of 13 snaps last season, and still needs to shed the “project” label. Brandon Hughes is entering his fourth year, but hasn’t proven he can even be Dimitri Patterson yet. Then you have a wasted 2010 fourth-round pick in Trevard Lindley, as well as undrafted free agent and apparent head case Cliff Harris.

Inside, in the slot, we have an interesting battle shaping up. Joselio Hanson, the designated nickel corner in this defense since 2007, I believe, was cut last year before being re-signed at a lower price. Clearly the Eagles think he’s replaceable. And they brought in his replacement, or at least heir apparant, in Brandon Boykin, the fourth-round pick. Boykin has all the physical skills except height going for him, and he already gained some experience in the slot at Georgia.

What I would have done: The way Howie Roseman handled the Samuel trade situation was appalling. A player of that caliber should have been worth more than a seventh-round pick, but by the time he pulled the trigger the Eagles had no leverage. That said, he had backed himself into a corner (haha). Trading Samuel was the only possible solution to a problem Roseman created in the first place.

Way-too-early prediction: Based on Rodgers-Cromartie’s stats above, I’m optimisic that he will be a solid outside cornerback this year. Actually, it seems prudent to lock up DRC at this point in order to grab a little bit of discount. And I’m only slightly worried about Asomugha losing a step in 2012. He should still have at least another good year or two left in the tank.

The slot battle is Boykin’s to lose, and I doubt he will. After that, it would be nice to see one of the other young corners step up. Bowles coached bigger, athletic corners in Miami. Hopefully he can use that experience to mold Marsh into an NFL player.

Photo from Getty.

5 Eagles Veterans Likely to be Cut for Cap Space

Free agency is nearly upon us, and the Eagles have just under $10 million available to spend. Some of that money will hopefully go toward locking up young stars like LeSean McCoy. Other funds will be freed up when they trade Asante Samuel (sooner, rather than later if they want to make any free agent splash).

But there are some veteran players they can cut if they need more room under the salary cap. Here are the most five most likely, with numbers from Eagles Cap:

Jamaal Jackson — Cap Savings: $1.9 million
Jackson really should have been gone last offseason. Jason Kelce may not have been that good, but he’s the future at center.

Winston Justice — Cap Savings: $2.3 million
Justice is only two years removed from signing that long term extension. But then he was inconsistent in 2010, injured in 2011. Presumably the Eagles will retain King Dunlap as swing tackle, making Justice expendable. And with his $4 million price tag, no one is going to be clamoring for him in a trade.

Darryl Tapp — Cap Savings: $1.6 million
Compared to other NFL defensive ends, Tapp played well in a rotational role last year. But compared to other Eagles players, he generated the least pressure. Why keep him around when you can get the same or potentially better production out of Philip Hunt, at one-fifth the cost?

Joselio Hanson — Cap Savings: $1 million
The Eagles already cut Hanson once right before last season, and he’s turning 31 this year. Depending on how the coaches view the progression of young corners like Curtis Marsh and Brandon Hughes, they may decide it’s time to give them a try instead.

Moise Fokou & Akeem Jordan — Cap Savings: $1.3 million
Alright, so this is two players. But both Fokou and Jordan are expendable, low-upside pieces at a position that the Eagles are likely to add anywhere from two to four new players this offseason.

Photo from Getty.

Priority: Lock Up Rodgers-Cromartie Long Term

Looking at the Eagles roster as it stands now, cornerback sticks out as a position in flux.

There are eight players signed. Three of those — Nnamdi Asomugha, Joselio Hanson, and Asante Samuel — have crossed the 30-year-old mark, so their football clocks are ticking. Samuel, as discussed yesterday, likely won’t be around in a few months anyway. There’s also a quartet of unproven youngsters who Eagles fans have varying degrees of hope for — Brandon Hughes, Curtis Marsh, Trevard Lindley, and DJ Johnson.

Then there’s DRC. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is the soon-to-be 26-year-old cornerback whom the Eagles received as part of the Kevin Kolb trade. A former first round pick and one-time Pro Bowl selection, Rodgers-Cromartie was supposed to pair with Asomugha and Samuel to make a fearsome trio of starting corners. Things didn’t work out as planned, partially because the young newcomer struggled in his new role as nickel corner.

I posted Rodgers-Cromartie’s 2011 outside/slot split before, but it’s worth another look:

Once again, Rodgers-Cromartie was one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL when playing in the slot, and one of the best when playing his natural position outside. That was part of the problem in 2011, but with Samuel headed out the door, DRC has the potential to be one of the best players on the Eagles defense. That’s only potential, of course, and his inconsistent play was one of the major reasons the Cardinals were willing to part with him a year ago.

More important, however, are two factors: his age and contract status. Rodgers-Cromartie is the only proven cornerback on the Eagles roster who still has at least half a decade of NFL playing time ahead of him. If he can maintain a high level of play as a starter, he could be not only an answer for 2012, but also a long term solution to pick up the slack when Asomugha begins to fade.

The problem is, Rodgers-Cromartie isn’t signed past this upcoming season. If the Eagles let him play out his contract and he does well, they will have to franchise tag him or compete with other teams on the open market. The alternative, of course, is that they could extend him this offseason — and perhaps pick up a discount in the aftermath of DRC’s sub par 2011.

There’s a long list on Howie Roseman’s desk of Eagles players deserving new contracts and Rodgers-Cromartie isn’t at the top. Still, for the sake of the vital cornerback position, extending him this offseason should be a priority.

Photo from Getty.