Eagles-Jaguars Preseason Thoughts: How To Combat The Scrape-Exchange

Is it too late to talk about the Eagles' third preseason game? Hope not, because that's what I'm about to do.

When we last talked, I was remarking about how bad Trent Cole looks in his new role. Shocker: he's still bad. In the few nickel snaps that he put his hand in the ground and rushed the passer, Cole got some good pressure (as he always has). But putting him in space does no one any good in coverage and it has so far hindered his naturally good run defense. Especially bad: any play that has him line up over the slot receiver and blitz. First, it's not fooling anyone. Second, he's too far away from the quarterback to do any damage.
Luckily, the rest of the linebacking core is shaping up well so far. DeMeco Ryans has been solid, if unspectacular. Mychal Kendricks was a force all over the field against the Jagurs, and was often brought on blitzes up the middle (with Cole dropping back though). On the other side, Connor Barwin continues to impress. His interception was the most athletic feat we've seen an awhile at linebacker. Interesting note: on that play, the Eagles kept their base defense in on Jacksonville's 2nd and 19, against 4 WRs and 1 TE. Odd choice.
I am a paying member of the Patrick Chung fan club. He's not a star, but watching him come up and make solid tackles is a revelation.
I didn't think Michael Vick was as horrible as the post-game narrative suggested. He held on to the ball too long a few times and threw one bad pick. But Vick also made some laser completions and showed ample mobility. He was never going to be as perfect as he had shown through the first two contests. Plus, the offensive line wasn't exactly in peak form early.
In truth, the offense Chip Kelly had Vick run seldom resembled that of the previous games. There was more under-center snaps and down-the-field passing routes than we were shown before. As some remarked, it looked at times more like an Andy Reid offense than one run by Kelly.
Sheil Kapadia has a good breakdown of what looks like the Jaguars using the scrape-exchange to combat the zone read. Here's what it looks like below. As in their typical zone read play, the Eagles let the defensive end go unblocked, with Lane Johnson crashing down on the guard, and Todd Herremans releasing to the second level. However, in the scrape-exchange, the defensive end is trained to immediately come down the line at the running back, forcing the QB keeper. The linebacker Herremans must reach arcs around the outside instead (away from the would-be block) and gets in Vick's face right away:

It worked great in the above play, but not only is the scrape hard to pull off, it's not all that difficult to combat either. The first way is simply for Vick to get better at running the QB keeper and executing the second option. On this play he ran vertically too quickly instead of laterally, negating any chance to throw the quick bubble screen to DeSean Jackson.
The second way is even easier: just don't run the zone read. Think about what happens in the above play if the Jaguars defenders get too comfortable executing the scrape, only to have the Eagles block normally. If Johnson and Herremans take on their defenders straight up and the linebacker comes around the edge instead of up the middle, there's going to be a huge hole for the running back. The offense can use further deception with an H-back in the backfield. That player come across the formation to lead blocker with multiple choices about who to attack. The below image comes from Chris Brown's (always excellent) breakdown of this technique:

Want another option? How about stop reading the defensive end? By mixing up the read, you can keep defenders unsure of their responsibility. Last time we talked about a play where the Eagles read a defensive tackle. Here's a similar play in which Vick reads the linebacker(s):

And here's even more variation. This time the Eagles read the end, but if Vick keeps it he's running behind a pulling guard in Evan Mathis. Bryce Brown picks up 11 yards to the left on this run after the zone read freezes the unblocked defender, but I wonder how many yards Vick would have gotten had he pulled it down himself to the right:

By the way, Jamar Chaney did seemingly everything possible to try to get cut over the last couple of years. What finally did him in? Not being able to block a punter on special teams. Ouch.
And what is the Toddfather doing below cavorting with the enemy, aka Jason Baboon?

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Free Agency Strategy for a New Era

Free agency kicks off this week (finally). The Eagles are sitting on over $30 million in cap space, and that number should jump over $40 million once they cut Nnamdi Asomugha. That kind of cap flexibility positions the team as a major buyer. The question, as always, is who is worth buying and at what price. But more broadly, how should the Eagles use this free agency period to set themselves up for long term success?

I don't need to rehash the dangers of free agency. You can draw a straight line from the summer of 2011 to the downfall of Andy Reid. But just because there are dangers doesn't mean the Eagles would be better off ignoring the rash of veterans on the open market. Looking back at the Reid era, we saw how making the right decisions can immensely help your team. Take Jon Runyan for example. He was signed in 2000, only Reid's second offseason. He became one of two bookend tackles that anchored the offense for the next decade.

The Runyan deal obviously looks great in hindsight, but you can see why it was likely to succeed. The team purchased a young player with top talent at a premium position. Those are really the only types of acquisitions I'm rooting for this time around. The Eagles have too many holes to think they can turn this around in a single offseason. Rather than try to plug everything, play the long game.

You obviously want to avoid older players, including stars. Even if the next Asomugha or Babin played well, they wouldn't still be good when the rest of the team is ready to make a leap. Furthermore, I see little benefit in buying up middling talent at this stage. This isn't a Super Bowl team about to make a run. Better to let youngsters battle it out with playing time than give snaps to a mediocre band-aid player.

Overall, and maybe this is common sense, but you should look at every potential acquisition and ask yourself, can this player be an integral part of a deep playoff run in 3 years? Actually, that's the same question you should ask about the players on the current roster. If the answer isn't a resounding yes, don't waste your money. Move on, get younger, start over.

Photo from Getty.

The Jason Babin Post-Mortem

Less than 24 hours after the Eagles' latest embarrassing loss, they made a change. They didn't fire Andy Reid or anything major like that. Instead, they cut defensive end Jason Babin.

I'm sure Babin was a malcontent. Plenty of the beat reporters were quick to note what a jerk he was in interviews, and there's not really much reason to cut somebody like this now unless there are off the field circumstances. I know, I know. Andy Reid said he wanted to get more plays for the youngsters. But unless Babin was making a scene, Reid could have just benched him or played him less. Babin played 60 percent of the defensive snaps against Carolina.

Additionally, while Babin isn't playing great, he's (a) not the only one and (b) not playing that poorly. I pulled the Pro Football Focus stats on pass rush productivity (sacks + .75*hits + .75*hurries / total pass rush snaps). Here are the Eagles defensive ends through the first 12 weeks. You can see their PRP number at right, and then the difference between their 2011 figure and 2012 figure, if applicable. Also, 25% Rank refers to their PRP rank compared to the rest of the 4-3 defensive ends with at least a quarter of their team's pass rush snaps.

As you can see, nearly everyone is down on the year. Check out last year's numbers if you want the full comparison, but Babin and Cole were #4 and #5 in the league then. Both have dropped -- although 9th and 14th overall isn't so bad. And Cole actually fell more than Babin. Darryl Tapp and Philip Hunt fell even more (small sample size). Brandon Graham (also SSS) is the only player to improve from last year -- a trend that jives with what we've seen. Note that if Graham had registered this high of a PRP while reaching the threshold for ranking, he would have blown away the second place candidate (Charles Johnson, with 13.7).

What can we take away from this? First, that Babin was never the sole pass rush problem. In fact, he should have been less of a concern in this area than nearly everyone else. However, in addition to probably not being a happy camper willing to sit for a young player, Babin also represents low upside for 2013. While we hope Cole hasn't hit a wall due to age, he's stuck in Philly next year with a contract that makes it more expensive to cut him than to keep him. There was no such reason to keep Babin, though.

Furthermore, Babin's career is delicately intertwined with Jim Washburn and the Wide Nine. Babin was in Philly back in 2009 and did nothing at all. Only with Washburn's scheme did he thrive, and with Washburn likely gone in the purge this offseason, why would anyone want to keep Babin? In that sense, it's not a bad idea to get rid of him now and get a look at the youngsters -- even if right now he's still a better option than most.

Of course, and this is almost a footnote, pass rushing isn't everything. Babin was always suspect against the run, and this year was no different. In 2012, both his stop rate (run tackles that resulted in losses for the offense) and his tackle percentage (tackles and .5*assists / run snaps) were second-worst on the Eagles, ahead of Hunt. Not necessarily a reason to suddenly dump Babin now, but worth noting.

Finally, I might as well show you the pass rush stats for the Eagles defensive tackles as well. Those show similar declines for incumbents Landri and Jenkins:

Photo from Getty.

There Is No Escape

Last week, we knew it was the end times. Some folks still grasped at the straws of denial, clinging to the hope of playing another bad team. Maybe the ship would right itself once more. Maybe Andy Reid could salvage something from this burgeoning train wreck of a season.

It was, as I think all Eagles fans knew deep down, not going to happen. This Eagles team has passed the event horizon of failure, and every week we just get one more week closer to the inevitable conclusion.

It's not that I think Reid is a bad coach in the abstract. I would seriously consider hiring him if I were the owner of another franchise. But as close as Reid came to a Super Bowl win, as amazing as his sustained success in Philadelphia was — everything has to end, and most of the time it doesn't end well.

This Eagles team he has assembled is bad in more ways than we can count, starting with what has devolved into easily the worst offensive line in the Reid era, a pitiful shadow of the team's former strength. Bad draft picks and an over-reliance on free agency have created a roster that's simultaneously past its prime and woefully inexperienced. Injuries have left huge holes at positions with zero depth.

But what drives this far over the edge is the complete collapse of anything resembling a team. Sure, there was a players-only meeting last week. Whoop-de-do. This team is falling apart. Veteran stars are admitting it's over. Others have turned on the fans. Your quarterback thinks he's going to be benched, while his brother demands a trade. Joe Banner, or, I mean, a front office "decision-maker" is twisting the knife. Am I missing anything?

Reid's ability to keep this team competitive long term without a hard reboot was impressive. But it desperately needs one now — and not just in the locker room. The Eagles need new voices coaching and scouting and signing. It's not unlike what happened to the Indianapolis Colts in 2011. Going without Peyton Manning (Eagles version = Jason Peters?) exposed a lot of weaknesses in that organization, and crazy Twitter personality and owner Jim Irsay made the tough call to clean house. So far, the results have been positive for them (yes, Andrew Luck helps).

That's what's needed in Philadelphia. But until then, we'll just have to slog through the rest of this miserable season.

Photo from Getty.

"We Should Be A Whole Lot Better"

It's not be the biggest question facing the Eagles, but it might be the one we have the fewest answers for: why has the team's vaunted defensive line come up so short?

Last year's group racked up the sacks, and Jim Washburn publicly boasted that the unit should only improve from there. Let me rummage up his exact words:

"I’ll be crushed, hell, I’ll quit if it ain’t a whole lot better. They can even fire my ass if we’re not a whole lot better. We should be a lot better."

Well, they're not better, at least in the results column. The Eagles have fewer sacks through the first five games than they had through the first two games last year. But again, the question is, why?

After the Steelers loss, Jason Babin blamed the lack of production on facing more max protection from offenses. I wanted to take a look and see if that was the case. As you can see at right, under "Blockers/Play", the Eagles are facing more blockers. The first table shows 2011, in which opponents averaged 5.46 blockers per play according to Pro Football Focus. Through five games in 2012, that average is up to 5.59 blockers per play.

Doesn't seem like a big increase, but it's significant. And specifically over the last two games, opponents put in more pass blockers per play than in all but two games in 2011. That coincided with the Eagles defensive line's two lowest Pass Rush Productivity scores (PRP) since Washburn took over as coach. Seems like there's probably a connection, proving Babin at least partially right.

However, with that said, when you plot the Eagles single-game PRP scores against opponent's average blockers, the results are murky at best. There's high volatility here, and it makes seeing a simple causation very difficult. See below, with the green dots indicating 2012 games.

Perhaps more max protection really is the main issue, and we just can't see it in the graph. Perhaps there is more chipping and other protection schemes that don't even trigger a full "blocker" designation. Or maybe there are other factors at work, even the advancing age of guys like Babin. Tough to say.

Photo from Getty.

Mike P's, Ooh-Op-Ooh, and Other Eagles-Giants Notes

I was sure the Eagles were going to lose.

When they had to settle for a field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. When the Giants kick returner brought out the ensuing kickoff for yet another long gain. When, on 4th and 1, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was charged with pass interference. When, on the following 3rd and 10, Nnamdi Asomugha drew a second pass interference call. Even when the Giants' Ramses Barden mauled Asomugha for the same call going the other way, there was little hope Lawrence Tynes would miss the 54-yard field goal attempt.

And then he did! ... Only Andy Reid, in all his glory, punched his gift horse in the mouth by calling a timeout. Surely, on the second attempt, Tynes would put it in. But then, in one of the most improbable events in an improbable season, he missed again, and the Eagles won.

I think I'm still in shock.

Let's get to a few notes on the game, and from the locker room after:

Isn't it amazing how much better Michael Vick looks when you establish a run game for him? In the second half, when the Eagles fed LeSean McCoy 17 times, Vick went 8 of 11 for 109 yards, plus he scrambled 3 times for another 30. The Giants, bowed by McCoy's dazzling cutbacks, weren't able to get the same pressure on Vick, and he could sit in the pocket more comfortably.
One of the most amazing things about the Eagles approach to the run game yesterday was how they stuck with it despite poor returns early. In the first half McCoy and Bryce Brown had a combined 8 carries for 1 yard. Add in Damaris Johnson's one carry that lost a yard and you get a big zero in the rushing column. Nine times out of ten, Reid and Marty Mornhinweg would have used that as an excuse to abandon the run. Not last night, and it paid off.
The margin of victory was so close that one turnover certainly would have doomed the Eagles, but they finally kept the ball under wraps. That was huge.
DRC was funny in the locker room. He talked about the 4th and 1 play in which he let Victor Cruz get by him for a 30 yard gain: "He gave me the Ooh-Op-Ooh." When the laughs subsided and he was asked to elaborate, he said, "I go one way, he went the other." All in good fun, especially when DRC picked off Eli Manning in the end zone on the next play. He told me that in film study they saw that Eli often stares down Cruz, and if he's covered, will immediately go to his second option, typically the tight end. DRC's job on the play was to spy on Manning, and it worked beautifully.
I also talked to Jason Babin for a bit, because I'm somewhat fascinated by the Eagles stand-up blitz look. One would think that the defense has shown enough film that offenses would be able to shut it down. Babin described the "infinite possibilities" out of that look, and how the offense really can't anticipate where he or his fellow blitzers will end up.
What's going on in the kickoff coverage? Might be as simple as Akeem Jordan and Colt Anderson, the team's two best special teamers, being inactive. But Bobby April has to do a better job regardless.
Post game, Reid said it doesn't feel so good to try to freeze the kicker and then be "surrounded by 66,000 people who want to rip your throat out." If Tynes makes that second field goal attempt, I think there might have been a riot on Broad Street. But nice to finally be on the right end of some field goal luck.
Continuing a trend, the Eagles defense only allowed 17 points despite poor field position. Still, there are serious holes in this defense. Especially down at the red zone, the coordinated coverage between Brandon Boykin in the slot and the linebackers needs work. Receivers running slants and underneath crossing routes seem to be the real problem. Additionally, the combination of Nnamdi Asomugha's lack of speed and Kurt Coleman's quick bite on play action is deadly. At the end if the day, Nnamdi's not getting any younger, so Coleman has to have better awareness.
On a related note, Rodgers-Cromartie (still) doesn't seem too pleased with zone coverage. He talked about how he likes lining up in man coverage, facing the offense head-on. DRC suggested that a lot of the coverage problems they have come from switching out of that base defense: "Things can get a little confusing."
One final thing. When talking with Cullen Jenkins, Babin stopped by to tell his line-buddy that he did "3 Mike P's" in the game. When pressed for the meaning of that expression, Babin called it an inside joke and would only say it meant "everything and nothing." Derek Landri wouldn't elaborate beyond "throwing everything at them." When asked if a "Mike P" could possibly be named after anyone in particular, both players slyly demurred.

Photo from Getty.

A Defensive End Preview

Sheil Kapadia:

Jenkins has been getting some reps at defensive end with Jason Babin out. We didn’t see him outside much last year, although Jenkins played defensive end while in a 3-4 with the Packers.
“I just gotta get back used to it,” he said. “My hand work is a little off, especially on the left side. When I did play D-End in the past, I was used to being on the right side, so when I’m on the left side, I gotta get used to the hands, vertical steps and all that stuff.”

I’m a fan of whatever looks Jim Washburn wants to throw at offenses, but with Trent Cole also out with swelling in his shoulder, now seems like the perfect time to get lots of looks at the quartet of Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Philip Hunt. You’re not going to be able to keep all four of those guys.

Seeing Cole and Babin both dealing with injuries is also a worthy reminder that they’re not youngsters anymore. They were tremendous pass rushers last year, but a decline could be coming.

UPDATE: Graham is running with the ones, and Jenkins and Tapp are rotating on the other side.

Mining the New Football Outsiders Almanac 2012

The Football Outsiders Almanac appeared online yesterday, and you should obviously go get yourself a copy. With apologizes to our esteemed local publication, the FOA 2012 is the gold standard for the NFL offseason. The amount of statistical detail Aaron Schatz and everyone else at Football Outsiders puts into their work is nothing short of awe-inspiring. With that in mind, I’m going to highlight a few pieces that stuck out to me.

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The Almanac jokes that, “of course we’re predicting a Philadelphia rebound,” but I don’t actually see it. They give a mean projection of 8.6 wins in 2012, which is barely more than the Eagles amassed last year. Moreover, it’s the lowest projected win total going back to at least 2009. The 2011 optimistic outlook pegged them at 11.7 wins. Oops.

* * *

FO marked Demetress Bell down for only five blown blocks in his last 20 starts. If he can stay healthy and Howard Mudd can work some magic, maybe there’s reason for some optimism at left tackle after all.

* * *

The Eagles dropped from third to eighth in offensive DVOA, but the Almanac suggests that “half” of that decline came from Vince Young’s poor play. Let’s hope Mike Kafka proves to be a better backup.

* * *

Two running backs and one tight end was the Eagles’ third most common offensive formation, but the Eagles ran the ball from it only one third of the time — the lowest percentage in the league by a long shot. On the other hand, this is the first year since 2009 that the offense ranked higher than 23rd in overall run percentage. The mantra appears to have been, “run, just not behind Owen Schmitt.”

* * *

The Almanac attributes only 12 sacks to blown blocks, the lowest figure in the league. Moreover, three of those are in LeSean McCoy’s column.

* * *

Despite those 18 sacks, I wonder if Jason Babin might be playing himself into a platoon job at left defensive end. Runs to his side averaged 4.91 adjusted line yards, second-worst in the NFL. On the other side, Trent Cole was second-best in the league, allowing a paltry 2.4 yards.

* * *

For the second year in a row, the Eagles defense ranked near the tail end of the league defending running backs coming out of the backfield. This is what’s colloquially known as the Casey-Matthews-covering-Brandon-Jacobs problem.

* * *

Bobby April is universally hailed as a special teams maestro, but his unit has declined in DVOA each year since he arrived. This year’s biggest problems came in the form of kick returners (Dion Lewis plus a down year for DeSean) and Chas Henry, who FO estimates cost the Eagles 11.5 points over the course of the season in field position alone. Yikes.

* * *

The Almanac is very optimistic about Michael Vick’s chances to rebound all the way back to his 2010 form. In fact, despite assuring us that his interception rate jump from 1.6 percent to 3.3 percent in 2011 was a normal regression to the mean, FO predicts he’ll go back to a 1.9 percent rate this season. Among starters, that would put him among the top five in the league.

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There’s tons more where this came from, so go buy the book and share what stands out to you.