Confident Comeback

Jason Peters talked to the media yesterday for the first time since his season-ending injury last year. Sheil Kapadia brings us the money quotes:

Asked what kind of difference he could have made, Peters said, “A big difference. I’m a starter. I’m the number one offensive lineman in the league. So me being out there carries everybody else and makes them play their best. It was a big part, me not being out there, so I’m back now.”

“I’m going to do what I’ve been doing,” Peters said. “Any time I get an offensive line coach, I don’t forget what I learned from the last one. I just take what he gives me and add it on to my game. So it’s not that I’m going to throw away Howard Mudd’s stuff. I’m just going to add on what Coach Stoutland’s going to give me."

“Any player will tell you… you wouldn’t see Tom Brady change his game if he got a new coach. He’s going to be Tom Brady. So same thing I’m going to bring to the table this year. I’m going to play hard. Whatever scheme they give me, I’m going to do it 100 miles an hour.”

I've talked (briefly) with Peters in the locker room and listened to/read a number of quotes from him over the last few years. He's never been the most expressive player, but right now he appears enthusiastic, confident, and motivated. Hopefully this is a positive sign.

The Biggest Question Mark

The Eagles have now made a number of free agent moves, almost all on the defensive side of the ball. Given that unit's poor play, such focus wasn't unexpected. The team needed at least four new defensive backs and some 3-4 building blocks. But I'm puzzled as to the front office's seaming lack of worry about one offensive position -- and it isn't quarterback.

Whither the offensive line? This is an area that so far at least has been totally ignored in free agency, despite a multitude of questions. I understand there's a lot of optimism surrounding the o-line, as everyone comes back from injuries. Football Outsiders tracks injuries with their Adjusted Games Lost metric:

Not that Eagles fans need another reason for self-loathing, but congratulations, your team had the highest offensive line AGL on record and the largest-ever increase in offensive line AGL. In 2011, only Jason Peters had an AGL above 1.0. In 2012, there were five: Peters (16.0), Jason Kelce (14.0), Todd Herremans (8.0), King Dunlap (2.0), and Danny Watkins (2.0). I don't think it's a stretch to muse that the offensive line injuries played a role in producing the third-worst quarterback AGL this year as well.

That kind of historic injury collapse is unlikely to happen again, so there's a lot of potential for a rebound season. But that conveniently avoids the underlying fact that the team has three starters returning from season-ending injuries -- including Peters coming back from a wicked ruptured Achilles tendon. We don't know if any of these players, especially Peters, will be the same players they once were.

Moreover, even putting aside the injuries themselves, we're looking at an increasingly aging line. The four presumed starters -- Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Herremans -- have an average age of 30. Teams can do well despite older offensive lines (Jimmy Kempski has tracked average age the last two seasons and coincidentally both times the oldest line has worked for the Super Bowl winner). But that doesn't mean it's a good idea overall to trust aging players during a rebuilding process. Are we sure that Peters and Herremans and Mathis are solid options for the next 2-3 years?

There are also major questions about performance. Danny Watkins is still around, for now. He's likely an unsalvageable bust at guard but there's no obvious replacement on the roster. Herremans had a subpar year in 2012 at right tackle. Is he capable of manning that spot long term, or does the team need to kick him back inside as an expensive guard? If so, they'll need a new offensive tackle, which is even harder to find than a new interior lineman.

And all of the above is just about the starting spots. As we saw last year, it's vital to have depth that you can count on. Right now, with the possible exception of Dennis Kelly, there's not a lot to like about any of the backups.

Howie Roseman and Chip Kelly have talked about filling holes now so that they are free to take the best player available in the draft. That's a good strategy, but they seem to have completely ignored this one glaring need. There were three intriguing right tackles on the open market, including Jake Long, who has already signed. Could Andre Smith or Sebastian Vollmer be on the docket next? Both have serious question marks, but a young, talented tackle would do so much to shore up this position.

There may be top linemen available with the Eagles' first pick, but you can't count on that -- and you also don't want to prevent yourself from going after a different player that you like better. Unless they make a late move here though, that's looking like the path the team is headed down.

Photo from Getty.

Injuries: A Reason for Optimism and Pessimism

Football Outsiders hasn't yet released their Adjusted Games Lost metric, which will document how affected each team was by injuries in 2012. In 2011, if you recall, the Eagles placed second among all teams with only 22 "games lost" by players due to injury. That low figure suggested that the team's disappointing season couldn't be excused by bad luck, and that there was little upside in terms of a regression to the mean. The disastrous 2012 campaign showed the truth of that hypothesis.

Although the full metric isn't out yet, we can already see a mixed bag with regard to injuries from last season. I went through and pulled a rough estimate for 2012 of the "games lost" by players because they were on the trainer's table and came up with 65. That would have placed the Eagles near the middle of the league overall. However, there's a massive split comparing offense to defense.

On the Eagles defense, few starters missed games due to injury. Trent Cole missed one, as did Mychal Kendricks and Fletcher Cox. But overall it was a remarkably healthy group. That's not a good thing when you're projecting for 2013. It would be nice to say "If only Nnamdi Asomugha and DeMeco Ryans and Cullen Jenkins were healthy, then things would have gone better." Instead, this was the best performance the Eagles defense could muster, despite staying relatively healthy. Don't expect a lucky bounce back next season.

The offense is a different story, though. I counted about 60 games missed by starters on offense. Key skill players each missed a handful: Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson. Jason Avant, Brent Celek, and Jeremy Maclin also had a few. All together, that figure would have been right near the top of the league in 2011. But more amazing is the 40 games missed by the offensive line, including 30 just by Jason Peters and Jason Kelce alone. That's a staggering figure that is unlikely to be repeated in 2013.

As I said earlier in the week, the offense has a chance to make a quick recovery if players like Peters and Kelce return to form and the unit avoids the injury bug this year. There's your optimistic note going forward. I wish I could say the same about the defense.

Photo from Getty.

The Most Important Eagle of 2013

Speculation abounds about the player who will quarterback Chip Kelly's offense in 2013. Free agency awaits, as does the draft. Michael Vick anticipates the unlikely $3 million payout his contract guarantees if he's on the Eagles roster on February 6th. Then there's Nick Foles, who surely hopes Kelly can adapt an offense to his skills.

A lot of questions, few answers. And, honestly, I'm not sure how much it matters, at least this year. Long term, Kelly is going to need to find a dynamic, elite quarterback. That's a large part of winning in today's NFL. But short term, I have confidence that an offensive innovator can make do with any number of options, from a fresh rookie with legs to the immobile Foles. Historically, Kelly hasn't asked his quarterback to carry the offensive load and he has never had an NFL-caliber QB. Oregon ran the ball 65 percent of the time last year, and the quarterback only averaged about 8 carries per game. The QB isn't quite so important when you build your offense around play makers -- and LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and company sure are weapons Kelly can focus on.

So if, despite the hype, the quarterback isn't the most important Eagle of 2013, who is? To me, the answer is simple: Jason Peters.

Peters, the 6'4", 340 lb offensive tackle whose 40-yard dash at the NFL combine was only .04 seconds slower than Jason Kelce's, is a player with obvious and immense talent. He's been to five Pro Bowls, including two with the Eagles since the team sent a first round pick and change to the Buffalo Bills for him. It's no coincidence that McCoy had his breakout season in 2011, when Peters was absolutely destroying would-be tacklers.

Of course, in what was to be only the first in a long string of disappointments last year, Peters ruptured his Achilles tendon in the offseason and never played a down in 2012. The rest of the offensive line collapsed without him. Whether it was King Dunlap or Demetress Bell taking his place, left tackle became a major weakness. Evan Mathis held strong at guard, but Jason Kelce tore his ACL in the second game. Danny Watkins continued to be awful, and Todd Herremans regressed at right tackle before also falling prey to injury.

I know those injuries weren't correlated, but going forward the Eagles are going to need rebound performances from everyone -- especially Peters. While they may not need (at least at first) an elite quarterback, the team needs a solid offensive line. Last year, Oregon averaged just under 50 points per game. Kelly's offense was held under 35 points only once, when Stanford's defensive front dominated the Oregon offensive line and limited the Ducks to just two touchdowns. The play makers need space to work. The quarterback needs time. That starts and ends with the offensive line -- and the line starts and ends with Peters.

There's a fair chance that the Eagles will pick an offensive tackle early in the draft, both for depth and long term plans. But the transition would go a lot easier if Peters proves he can once again shoulder the load. On Tuesday he turned 31 years old. In football years, that's nearing the end of his prime, with or without a career-threatening injury. Tra Thomas held his own until age 34. Jon Runyan lasted until age 35. If Peters can recover from his injury and last another three or four years, that would be huge. The team could build from an (aging) position of strength rather than scramble to find a replacement. A high draft pick could get some time to apprentice or step in at guard instead. And If Herremans needs to move back inside, the instability won't be devastating.

The Eagles defense, whether it transitions to the 3-4 or not, is going to take more time to rebuild. There are too many holes to execute any kind of quick turnaround on that side of the ball. But the offense, with a little bit of Kelly magic and an offensive line rebirth, could get a head start. And that depends on Peters.

Photo from Getty.

Time's Up

I'm not going to crucify Andy Reid for still playing LeSean McCoy late in the game Sunday, even with the score out of reach. His concussion, in hindsight, was avoidable, and Reid's rationale for keeping him in was ridiculous. But benching McCoy would require that your coach give up on the season and start building for 2013.

That's not Reid's job. He's been here for 14 years and is about to be fired. Why should he coach for a future that doesn't exist for him? Why should he care?

I said last week that the Eagles shouldn't wait until after the season to fire Reid. The McCoy injury now sets that idea in sharper context. This season is lost. There's no salvaging it. Even a respectable finish at this point is unlikely and undesirable. All that's left is to play for 2013: lose as many games as possible, evaluate your players for next season, and keep your confirmed stars from serious injury.

It's time for Jeffrey Lurie to step up. He's in control. He needs to fire Reid, promote Marty Mornhinweg to interim head coach, and finish out this sad season with an eye toward the future. Kick-start the coaching search. Evaluate players and plan the cuts you are going to make. Make the decision on what to do with Michael Vick, who's owed $3 million just a few days after the Super Bowl.

There's nothing admirable about letting this play out for the next six weeks. And, as McCoy shows, there's actually a tremendous downside to doing so. Time to move on.

Photo from Getty.

Vick Succumbs to Blogger's Pressure

After suffering my withering takedown last week, Michael Vick finally admitted he was wrong. Tim McManus has the details:

After suffering bruised ribs against the Patriots, Vick says that he will continue to wear the Kevlar padding from Unequal Technologies. He’s just getting more of it.

“It’s going to be a little thicker. I got fitted the other day and I look forward to wearing those,” said Vick. The quarterback anticipates having the new gear by the opener...

“I’m going to continue to go with Unequal,” said Vick on Monday. “Just the new Kevlar padding.”

But why wasn't he already wearing the newest padding? Keep the dial on McNabb or Kolb for all of your latest PaddingGate updates.

Is Michael Vick Wearing Enough Padding?

Decide for yourself. Here's Vick against the Patriots (click for bigger):

Here are other quarterbacks this preseason:

Worthing noting: Vick is a sponsor and stockholder of this company. On the other hand, though.

UPDATE: Vick will wear more padding!

Photos from Getty.

Eagles 2012 Dress Rehearsal: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

It's easy to make too much of a preseason game, even one that everyone acknowledges is the last real dress rehearsal before the regular season gets underway. The Eagles are still working out the kinks, and sometimes a poor practice can lead to a fabulous opening night.

At least, that's what everyone tells me. At the risk of being that insane moron who draws too many conclusions from a glorified scrimmage, let me highlight the main things that stuck out last night:

The Good

Mychal Kendricks is quickly on his way to becoming the best linebacker on the team. In striking contrast to Casey Matthews's first games in the spotlight a year ago, Kendricks doesn't give off any indication that the moment is too big for him. He's certainly not a Pro Bowler yet (although that didn't stop me from making such wild, fanciful leaps on Twitter), as evidenced by his subpar coverage in the red zone that gave up a touchdown. But Kendricks proved that he has the whole package. Seeing him diagnose a screen play, fight off a blocker, and make the tackle warms my heart.
Philip Hunt continues to look like, at worst, the Eagles third-best defensive end. Hunt showed solid pass rush potential last year in limited snaps, but his added bulk makes him look like a formidable, versatile starter.
Continuing with the defense, I would be remiss not to point out what an upgrade Nate Allen is over Jaiquawn Jarrett. Lots more to prove for Allen going forward, but his run support against the Patriots was especially noteworthy.
What's that you say? You've only skimmed the last few paragraphs looking for the name Nick Foles? Now registering on Tim McManus's scale of 1-to-Tebow, the rookie has surpassed all expectations. I was particularly skeptical on draft day, but in two games Foles has looked better than any Eagles backup since Kevin Kolb's two starts in 2009. I'm no quarterback guru, but one of the things that stands out about Foles is his complete lack of fear (something that seems to be dooming Kolb in Arizona). His pocket awareness, perhaps aided by his 6'6" frame, is fantastic, which enables him to move around fluidly and deliver crisp passes into tight spots. If he can keep this up, there's no question he's a better option than Mike Kafka.
The Eagles red zone offense was great. Part of that was Foles, but other players stepped up as well. Stanley Havili made his case for the fullback job, notching consecutive good plays -- a fullback trap to get to the goal line and a lead block to put LeSean McCoy in. Clay Harbor made a fantastic grab in the corner of the end zone. Even DeSean Jackson showed up, when the Eagles motioned McCoy out of the backfield and got Jackson one-on-one against a linebacker.

The Bad

Unfortunately, all the good things I mentioned above happened against the Patriots backups. Bummer.
On Michael Vick's injury, all I can do is quote DeSean's immortal words: "Aw man, not again."
Ironically, new starter King Dunlap was the most impressive offensive lineman last night. Evan Mathis allowed the pressure on the play where Michael Vick was injured. Todd Herremans had a similarly poor showing. And Danny Watkins looked totally incapable of blocking anyone. Let's not even mention Demetress Bell and his struggles against fourth-stringers.
Penalties, a problem in their own right, led to this shouting match between Andy Reid and Cullen Jenkins. Way to show some fire and all that, but this isn't really a good sign.

The Ugly

Josh McDaniels, with only second and third-stringers at his disposal, ran circles around Juan Castillo, especially on third down. That's frightening.

Photo from Getty.