Confident Comeback

Jason Peters talked to the media yesterday for the first time since his season-ending injury last year. Sheil Kapadia brings us the money quotes:

Asked what kind of difference he could have made, Peters said, “A big difference. I’m a starter. I’m the number one offensive lineman in the league. So me being out there carries everybody else and makes them play their best. It was a big part, me not being out there, so I’m back now.”

“I’m going to do what I’ve been doing,” Peters said. “Any time I get an offensive line coach, I don’t forget what I learned from the last one. I just take what he gives me and add it on to my game. So it’s not that I’m going to throw away Howard Mudd’s stuff. I’m just going to add on what Coach Stoutland’s going to give me."

“Any player will tell you… you wouldn’t see Tom Brady change his game if he got a new coach. He’s going to be Tom Brady. So same thing I’m going to bring to the table this year. I’m going to play hard. Whatever scheme they give me, I’m going to do it 100 miles an hour.”

I've talked (briefly) with Peters in the locker room and listened to/read a number of quotes from him over the last few years. He's never been the most expressive player, but right now he appears enthusiastic, confident, and motivated. Hopefully this is a positive sign.

All-22: Hey Look, An Eagles Run Game!

Was that really Andy Reid on the sideline last Sunday? The Eagles called 17 runs in the second half against the Giants, shocking pretty much everyone. And, as I pointed out on Monday, that new focus on the run game made Michael Vick into a much better quarterback. With the pressure off of his back, Vick completed 8 of 11 attempts for 109 yards in the second half.

Let's dive into the All-22 coaches film on this one. The first thing to note is that the Eagles didn't just run the ball more—they called different run plays. The staple of the Howard Mudd offensive line is the stretch to the outside (read more about that here). Those outside runs behind athletic linemen worked great last year, but the patchwork offensive line the Eagles trotted out last week couldn't execute the same way.

In the second half (except down by the goal line), the Eagles abandoned those run schemes in favor of more straight-up blocking, often with the I-Formation. It worked:

Linemen set the edge, McCoy follows his FB.

Even Dallas Reynolds got great push here.

The Eagles also used Stanley Havili in an H-Back set up for a few plays, giving them some interesting flexibility. Here they fake the toss to Bryce Brown and hand off to Havili coming up the gut instead. He follows Todd Herremans into the hole:

Later, they came back to the same look and used it to get numbers on the right side instead:

Suddenly, with the run game working, Vick's job gets so much easier. The linebackers actually bought this run fake, leaving Brent Celek wide open over the middle:

And with the defense now trying to both stop the run and prevent the pass, remembering to contain and control Vick's scrambling becomes a greater problem. He ran 3 times for 30 yards in the second half:

More All-22: The Eagles Early Offensive Line Struggles, How The Eagles Offense Made It Easy On Mike Vick

Oh, Danny Boy

There are plenty of reasons to be unhappy with the Danny Watkins pick in 2011. There's his age, for starters. Guard isn't exactly a premium position, especially in Howard Mudd's scheme. Plus, there was his poor play last year after being called "NFL ready" by basically everyone.

But now we have to worry about something more: that Watkins's football intelligence just isn't close to being starter-quality yet. Sheil Kapadia, who continues to kill it over at Birds 24/7, wrote a revealing piece about Watkins yesterday:

When Danny Watkins saw a notice last week at the Novacare Complex for a mandatory rookie event, his first instinct was to tell his teammate, Jason Kelce.

But then, Watkins remembered: He's not a rookie anymore.

Alright, alright. Mocking him for forgetting that he's not a rookie anymore would be juvenile. But take that in context of the rest of the story. Here's Jason Kelce on Watkins's progress:

"Now, having a full offseason under his belt, finally learning to think about things in different ways than he's used to, he can now watch film on his own and tell what's going on. 'I screwed up there. I should be doing this.' That's huge. Really, if you're at the level where you should be mentally, you should know immediately after a play, I just screwed that up. Last year, he wasn't at that level, whereas now, he's slowly able to recognize, 'I should have did that better that last play.' "

Wait, I'm supposed to comfortable with a guy who's "slowly" able figure out that he might have done something wrong on the previous play? It's one thing to mess up, to miss a block or blow an assignment. Everybody makes mistakes. But it's mind-boggling to me that someone would consistently not even realize that they made a mistake at all.

It's not a good sign that Watkins only now is learning how to watch film. That (a) was something the Eagles should have known before they drafted him and (b) something renowned line coach Howard Mudd ought to be able to teach. Unless... Well, yeah, we've been there already.

At the end of the day, your former first round pick shouldn't be talking about your former sixth round pick like there are light years separating the two:

"Looking back at where me and him started last year, he's so far ahead with his football IQ, and I'm trying to learn from him. I think he's going to do awesome this year. I'm excited for him."

Photo from Getty.

The Howard Mudd Question

I think most position coaches have basically three jobs: (1) find talented players, (2) teach those players to improve, and (3) organize a scheme that best enhances the strengths and masks the weakness of those players. To separate a job into just three components is probably vastly oversimplifying the process. Moreover, it eliminates the substantial crossover between those jobs.

Still, I think it's a good framework for evaluating position coaches to the best of our ability. For example, Eagles running backs coach Ted Williams has been very successful grooming RBs over the years. Although everyone has his misses (see: Hunt, Tony), Williams has found quality players in all rounds of the draft and has coached many of them up to be at least contributors, and often Pro Bowlers. I would argue that he's very good at jobs one and two. Unclear about three, since the scheme the RBs play in has as much to do with the offensive coordinator and line coaches.

Jim Washburn is another good test case. His wide nine-based scheme shows that job three is one of his biggest strengths. Look at how it transformed Jason Babin from the part time player in 2009 to the full time monster in 2011. Washburn also doesn't seem to have any trouble teaching his guys. Trent Cole had one of his most productive seasons last year, as did Mike Patterson. Philip Hunt and Brandon Graham both look to have made strides this year. Whether Washburn can pick talent players is more of a question, but we will get to see with Fletcher Cox.

Can we evaluate Howard Mudd under those same basic criteria? I think so, and I don't think it comes out as favorably as we might expect for him.

The key thing about Mudd we've heard since the day he arrived in Philadelphia was his scheme, much like Washburn. Mudd takes smaller, athletic linemen and puts them on the attack, even in pass protection. He likes getting his linemen in space on stretch runs to maximize their athleticism. This is more or less the opposite scheme Juan Castillo employed while the line coach, leading to an exodus of big-bodied former starters like Winston Justice and Jamaal Jackson. The scheme, as evidenced by last year's reduction in sacks, clearly works. It maximized the pound-for-pound destruction of human wrecking ball Jason Peters and covered up the deficiencies of two rookies and one career journeyman in the interior. It also paved the way for LeSean McCoy to have a blockbuster season.

But Mudd's success at the first and second job requirements is in question. Starting with the teaching side of the equation, I think you have to seriously doubt his ability when it seems so difficult for veterans to learn his scheme (especially compared to Washburn). Demetress Bell is the latest example. He may just be bad, but when healthy Bell was supposedly a solid, athletic tackle in Buffalo. Since coming to the Eagles he's looked like he's forgotten how to block. More to the point, I don't see much improvement from the Eagles two sophomores, especially Danny Watkins. Check out the game tape from the Patriots game (courtesy Jake Louden):

I'm no offensive line expert, but Watkins was beat often in that game. And he wasn't going up against Vince Wilfork here. Those were New England's third and even fourth string defensive tackles.

The Watkins pick, as it stands right now, seems like a failure of both jobs one and two. Ideally you pick a guy with more talent in the first round. But if the talent is there, as most draft experts thought it was, Watkins's slow development has to be blamed on Mudd's teaching skills. At this point, it's worth noting that in his 12 years with the Colts, Mudd had only two players ever reach the Pro Bowl. One was undrafted free agent Jeff Saturday (Kelce's predecessor) and the other was tackle Tarik Glenn, who was drafted the year before Mudd became OL coach. His scheme -- along with Peyton Manning's renowned skills -- helped make Indianapolis a great offense for years, but Mudd was never a great discoverer or developer of talent.

In the short term, as long as Watkins gets some help, this isn't such a big problem. The scheme worked last year and it should work again, even without Peters. Mudd will hopefully continue to stitch together a puzzle from mismatching pieces. But what about when he retires, which rumors suggest may be as soon as the end of the season? Suddenly, Eugene Chung will become the coach. He won't have decades of experience perfecting Mudd's scheme. Nor can we expect, in his early years, he would have any particular scouting or teaching prowess. Yet Chung would be left holding the bag on a group of linemen that may not be as good as the scheme would make you believe.

That's the most worrisome part.

Photo from Getty.

Adventures at Summer Camp: Lehigh Day 1

Because someone has to read all the news coming out of the Eagles training camp.

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Confirmed: DeSean Jackson let frustration over his contract hurt his performance:

“Human nature-wise, yes it affected him,’’ Culley said. “It did. He tried not to let it affect him. Sometimes he didn’t do a very good job of that. It affected him in meetings. It affected him on the field. There were days when it didn’t. But it made him inconsistent. And that’s where the human nature part of it comes in.”

“I saw a couple of times last year where I saw him maybe trying to maybe save himself because (he was thinking), ‘I’m not under contract and I don’t want to get hurt,’’’ Culley said. “I don’t think there was a fear factor involved. I think it was more, ‘I don’t want to get hurt because I don’t have a contract.’ The first two-and-a-half years he was here, that wasn’t an issue. A couple of times last year, that came up. And I believe it came up simply because of that.”

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Punters, ahoy. The Eagles brought in not one, not two, not three, but four veteran punters for tryouts yesterday. It’s not that surprising once you understand how bad Chas Henry was last year. Reuben Frank says the most likely candidate to sign is former Pro Bowl Cowboy Mat McBriar. I honestly didn’t realize he had fallen off last year and was cut. Turns out, he couldn’t lift his foot.

* * *

The Felony That Wasn’t. I love how the charges were dropped against Dion Lewis because the DA concluded there was “no evidence a fire alarm was ever pulled.”

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Backup Running Backs Will Push… Who? I absolutely don’t understand where this headline comes from. Sheil’s replacement isn’t looking so hot.

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Speaking of Mr. Kapadia, he brings us a great quote from Howard Mudd on where Danny Watkins is in his second year. Sounds like the mental side of the game is the real roadblock for our friendly neighborhood fireman:

“Comfort in the position, eliminating doubt about himself,” Mudd said. “That just happens to players. That just happens. That’s part of the growing process. I call that the valley of darkness. You get somewhere and then you start doubting yourself, doubting, doubting… and then the ball is snapped and you don’t have a clue where you are. You can be very amateurish, if you will. All of a sudden, it starts to click again and you quit doubting yourself. Do well, and then all of a sudden, for whatever reason, you get there. So Danny, that’s what I think the offseason’s done for him.”

Jimmy Kempski tells us that Mudd also alluded to the Vandervelde-Reynolds backup center competition as the position battle he’s most looking forward too. I’m not sure if that’s positive or depressing. Final Mudd note: I discount every positive thing he says about Demetress Bell by half. There’s only one Jason Peters, and unfortunately he couldn’t keep his balance on a Roll-A-Bout.

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In other meta-reportage, Jimmy needs to stop wasting his time talking to guys like Keenan Clayton after practice. Clayton’s competing with Moise Fokou for the coveted “last linebacker cut” trophy. Then again, at least our favorite NFC bEast blogger didn’t get stiffed like ol’ timer Paul Domowitch.

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Rampant Tight End Speculation! The Eagles have now been linked to Visanthe Shiancoe and (gag) Jeremy Shockey. Raise your hand if you’re shocked that the Brett Brackett hype was purely media-driven. No one? Good.

* * *

Andy Reid Weight Loss Watch. He totally walked home from practice, guys.

Mining the New Football Outsiders Almanac 2012

The Football Outsiders Almanac appeared online yesterday, and you should obviously go get yourself a copy. With apologizes to our esteemed local publication, the FOA 2012 is the gold standard for the NFL offseason. The amount of statistical detail Aaron Schatz and everyone else at Football Outsiders puts into their work is nothing short of awe-inspiring. With that in mind, I’m going to highlight a few pieces that stuck out to me.

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The Almanac jokes that, “of course we’re predicting a Philadelphia rebound,” but I don’t actually see it. They give a mean projection of 8.6 wins in 2012, which is barely more than the Eagles amassed last year. Moreover, it’s the lowest projected win total going back to at least 2009. The 2011 optimistic outlook pegged them at 11.7 wins. Oops.

* * *

FO marked Demetress Bell down for only five blown blocks in his last 20 starts. If he can stay healthy and Howard Mudd can work some magic, maybe there’s reason for some optimism at left tackle after all.

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The Eagles dropped from third to eighth in offensive DVOA, but the Almanac suggests that “half” of that decline came from Vince Young’s poor play. Let’s hope Mike Kafka proves to be a better backup.

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Two running backs and one tight end was the Eagles’ third most common offensive formation, but the Eagles ran the ball from it only one third of the time — the lowest percentage in the league by a long shot. On the other hand, this is the first year since 2009 that the offense ranked higher than 23rd in overall run percentage. The mantra appears to have been, “run, just not behind Owen Schmitt.”

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The Almanac attributes only 12 sacks to blown blocks, the lowest figure in the league. Moreover, three of those are in LeSean McCoy’s column.

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Despite those 18 sacks, I wonder if Jason Babin might be playing himself into a platoon job at left defensive end. Runs to his side averaged 4.91 adjusted line yards, second-worst in the NFL. On the other side, Trent Cole was second-best in the league, allowing a paltry 2.4 yards.

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For the second year in a row, the Eagles defense ranked near the tail end of the league defending running backs coming out of the backfield. This is what’s colloquially known as the Casey-Matthews-covering-Brandon-Jacobs problem.

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Bobby April is universally hailed as a special teams maestro, but his unit has declined in DVOA each year since he arrived. This year’s biggest problems came in the form of kick returners (Dion Lewis plus a down year for DeSean) and Chas Henry, who FO estimates cost the Eagles 11.5 points over the course of the season in field position alone. Yikes.

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The Almanac is very optimistic about Michael Vick’s chances to rebound all the way back to his 2010 form. In fact, despite assuring us that his interception rate jump from 1.6 percent to 3.3 percent in 2011 was a normal regression to the mean, FO predicts he’ll go back to a 1.9 percent rate this season. Among starters, that would put him among the top five in the league.

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There’s tons more where this came from, so go buy the book and share what stands out to you.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Offensive Line

Eagles Offensive Line

What the Eagles did: In Howard Mudd we trust.

That sentence basically sums up where the Eagles stand in relation to their offensive line right now, in the post-Jason Peters 2012 continuity. (I like to think that somewhere out there is an alternate timeline where Julian Vandervelde, not Peters, tore his Achillies. Asante Samuel fetched a first round draft pick, too.)

Peters had one of the best seasons for an offensive lineman that I’ve ever seen. He was dominant in every phase of the game. It will not be possible to replicate his performance, and the Eagles offense will undoubtedly suffer significantly from his absence. Either King Dunlap or Demetress Bell, most likely the latter, will try to step into Peters’s shoes, but we shouldn’t hope for anything more than average play.

On top of that 6’4”, 340 lb. hole, Mudd also has to turn Jason Kelce and Danny Watkins into good offensive linemen. I’m not sure that any topic inspired more argument among fans last year than the Eagles rookie linemen. There are lots of people who insist that Kelce and Watkins were above average, even worthy of Pro Bowl considerations. That’s just not true, as far as my eyes and stats could tell.

Finally, there are the two starters I’m not worried about: Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis. Neither player is particularly dominant, but continued solid performance will be of paramount necessity with the rest of the line questionable.

What I would have done: Despite my reservations about the Eagles line, I don’t think I would have done anything differently. After Peters’ injury, Howie Roseman pounced on Bell and made sure to retain Dunlap. Neither is a sure thing, but at least there are two reasonable options in the wake of that shocking development. Long term, assuming Peters recovers, the line is locked up, so a high draft pick wasn’t strictly necessary.

Way-too-early prediction: Do I trust Howard Mudd? At the end of the day, the answer is yes, so I’m willing to be optimistic about Kelce, Watkins, and even Bell. I wouldn’t be surpised, however, if Mathis falls back to earth a little bit without a dominant tackle at his side.

Photo from Getty.

My 2012 Eagles Draft Predictions

Danny Watkins Eagles NFL Draft

Last year at this time I made eight predictions about what the Eagles would do in the draft. Some of them were more conservative than others, and I missed on one of my biggest guesses — saying that the team wouldn’t draft at their assigned first round spot. Still, I managed to get six of eight correct, and predicted the general thrust of the draft rather well (linebacker and offensive line, not defensive line).

So I’m back again for another round of likely folly. Here are my predictions for what we will see over the next few days.

Carpet-bombing the defense: early and often. Big picture: all the talented young players are on offense. You can quibble with this if you want, since there’s no reason to give up already on guys like Brandon Graham or Nate Allen. Still, the defense needs more playmakers going forward, and the only way to do that is to spend at least three out of the Eagles first four picks on defensive players. I expect the team to come out of the draft with as many as half their picks going toward the front seven.
No rookie running back, no safety. Unless the Eagles fall in love with one prospect, I just don’t see much benefit in adding another young running back or safety. Both positions have a single open back up job and that spot really needs to be filled with a veteran whose only responsibility is to fill in this year if something goes wrong. Instead, watch out for an Ellis Hobbs-type trade for a marginalized veteran player.
One offensive lineman, maximum. Last year the Eagles snatched up three interior linemen to build out Howard Mudd’s new blocking scheme. If not for Jason Peters’s injury, I’m not sure they would have bothered drafting even one this year, but a long term project at tackle now makes sense.
Chad Hall 2.0. Andy Reid loves the multidimensional ability that Hall brings to the offense so much that he’s willing to overlook his complete lack of NFL-caliber skills. I think the Eagles will draft someone like Florida’s Chris Rainey to return kicks and serve as a speedier x-factor on offense. Best case scenario, the team also gets its long-term replacement for Jason Avant with this guy.
Choir boys. Howie Roseman made some comments to reporters recently in which he seemed to flirt with the idea of taking more character risks. His actions over the last two drafts say otherwise. I expect the Eagles’ fascination with captains, seniors, and consistent, big-school performers to continue (e.g. no Vontaze Burfict).
Michael Vick is still safe. With few good quarterback options in this draft and the whole organization focused on getting Vick back on track in 2012, there’s no good case to reach for a quarterback of the future. Trent Edwards is tremendously uninspiring, but his competition is likely to be either a late round flier (Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore) or a veteran to be pursued later.
Surprise neglect of cornerback early on. With Asante Samuel gone, there’s plenty of room to go after Dre Kirkpartrick or another cover guy in the first round. But of the Eagles defensive spots, cornerback still has the most options. The team is heavily committed to Nnamdi Asomugha over the next few years and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a likely candidate for a contract extension. Curtis Marsh is the wildcard. He made no impact in 2011, but was always considered a project with all the skills. Todd Bowles may not need another youngster.
At least ten rookies. Last year one of my failed predictions was that the Eagles wouldn’t use all of their picks. But of course, they love drafting players and will probably end up trading back to add picks at least once.

I’m not making a prediction for the first round, although I already laid out what I think the Eagles are thinking (Peter King shoutout). Fletcher Cox is the potential trade-up candidate, Luke Kuechly the likely front-runner if they stay at 15 overall. Barring that I’m less sure, although a versatile pass rusher like Melvin Ingram makes the most sense of the remaining players.

Photo from Getty.