There Are No Shortcuts To The Super Bowl

Last March, Jeff Lurie told reporters he was was tired of waiting for the Eagles to be great. He’d seen sustained success, he’d been to a Super Bowl, and he’d watched his franchise post a solid 20-13 record (including a playoff loss) over the prior two seasons. It wasn’t enough.

“I’ve lived through a lot of division championships, a lot of playoff appearances, a lot of final four appearances, but our goal is we want to deliver a Super Bowl,” he said at the time. “And sometimes maybe I’m influenced by the notion of it’s very difficult to get from good to great, and you’ve got to take some serious looks at yourself when you want to try to make that step. It’s a gamble to go from good to great because you can go from good to mediocre with changes, but I decided it was important enough…”

On Wednesday, after firing Chip Kelly before the final game of the season, Lurie didn’t walk away from his words earlier in the year.

“I said, with Chip’s vision, it was an opportunity that he wanted to lead the way, to try to go from good to great,” he said. “In fact, I remember saying to all of you, there’s dangers in that, in terms of having two 10-6 seasons in a row, and when making significant changes, you can easily achieve mediocrity. I think it would be a shame not to try, but… that is the danger when you take a risk.”

I hope Lurie learned more than that, because his "strategy" was little more than a desperate hope. He handed over all power to Kelly, a moderately successful coach with zero experience running the intricacies of a NFL organization.

The road to the Super Bowl is not paved with such gambles, with an outsider making a bunch of questionable bets that luckily pay off. You don’t win by cutting talent and building #culture. You don’t win with a rigid set of measurables that dictate player acquisition. You don’t win by ignoring critical positions and spending excessive guaranteed money on less important ones. You don’t win by overpaying for a subpar quarterback coming off two major knee injuries, or turning over half the roster in one offseason. That’s how you end up 7-9 in one of the worst divisions ever.

There are no shortcuts.

Remember Andy Reid’s binder? Reid came to Philadelphia with a detailed multi-year plan of how to build an organization. He arrived in 1999, overhauled the roster, brought in an impressive group of experienced coaches (including 6 eventual head coaches), drafted a quarterback in the first round, and went 5-11. In 2000 the team and young quarterback improved, overachieving to reach the playoffs. By 2001 they were one of the best teams in the conference. In 2002 and 2003 they missed the Super Bowl by inches. In 2004 they came minutes away from the trophy itself.

Lurie said he doesn’t want the middle steps, he just wants the Super Bowl, and he was willing to gamble to get there. But those middle steps are important. That’s how you build a champion—not overnight, but consistently, step by step.

The best teams in the NFL have the best talent. The best teams in the NFL have a top quarterback they drafted and groomed. The best teams in the NFL have smart, experienced coaches who adjust their schemes to the players they have. The best teams in the NFL have a front office structure that empowers multiple voices and balances scouting with analytics and financial understanding.

Going into 2016, the Eagles need to avoid the quick fix, or the allure of competing for the playoffs in year one of a new regime. That won't set the team up for long term success. (Plus, they'll likely be in the running anyway unless the putrid NFC East changes significantly in a year.)

The blueprint needs to be for a Super Bowl contender in 2018. Let's lay out what that looks like...

Front Office: Howie Roseman has a mixed reputation among fans and league sources, but he can succeed in the Joe Banner role. He has experience on the personnel side to pair with a firm grasp of the league's economics. Roseman does need to find a qualified general manager-type to run player personnel, someone less washed-up than Tom Donahoe, with more experience than Ed Marynowitz, who's not obvious idiot Ryan Grigson.

Coaching: A NFL team is a crazy thing to manage, and any head coach needs to be able to bring in the right people and command respect across the organization. He doesn't have to be a brilliant innovator on the cutting edge, but he does need to be flexible enough to adapt his schemes and techniques to get the most out of his players in each situation. The single most important skill set within that is the ability to find and develop a franchise quarterback, which is what makes a candidate like Adam Gase so attractive.

Quarterback: You cannot be a consistent Super Bowl contender until you have a quarterback. As such, you should exhaust every possible avenue to get one, especially the draft. I stand by my recipe for QB hunting laid out four years ago, on the eve of Andy Reid's firing:

Draft a quarterback early and late. Sign somebody in free agency. Trade for a promising backup. Rinse and repeat. You're never going to be able to compete for the Super Bowl until you find your one franchise guy. Might as well cycle through as many potentials as you can until you do. The financial cost of doing so is less than the opportunity cost of sitting pat with one player, [Bradford], who is statistically unlikely to ever become an elite quarterback.

In the Eagles' case, that means avoiding any multi-year guarantee to a still-unproven quantity like Sam Bradford, and perhaps letting him go entirely depending on the cost.

Roster Building: Outside of quarterback, which takes priority over everything else, the offensive line is next on the list of must-haves. Though I don't know many of the names, Jimmy Kempski's mock draft would thrill me based on the selection of two quarterbacks and three offensive linemen. Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce are the only long term building blocks you can count on there. Meanwhile, don't waste resources on the rest of the offensive skill positions, none of which will matter much until the offensive line and quarterback are fixed.

The Eagles defense needs more talent across the board, but it also likely needs a scheme that better takes advantage of the players in house. Kelly wanted a two-gapping 3-4 system, but it would be nice to see what Fletcher Cox and company could do in a one-gapping 4-3 instead.

Overall: Both the organization and its fans need patience. We were spoiled by Chip's quick turnaround, but where did that leave us? Let's plan for sustainability.

Chip Stew: As Likely to be the Next Great Coach as Anyone Else

Back in November, when Chip Kelly-to-the-NFL talk was only rumor, Chase Stuart disputed the notion that Kelly was likely to be the next Steve Spurrier. I know most Eagles fans have moved past this line of argument, but the broader context Stuart brings to the disucssion is still worthwhile:

But the bigger question isn’t ‘whether or not Kelly will fail’ because ultimately most coaches do. Rex Ryan was the toast of the town two years ago, reaching the AFC Championship Game in each of his first two seasons, and now seems on his way out the door. Tom Coughlin may be the single best coach in professional football, and Giants fans have wanted him fired for long stretches of his career. After awhile, every coach becomes a failure. Andy Reid is learning that lesson quite painfully in 2012...

Few elements of football are more art than science than the hiring of a head coach. The options always come with bright red flags. College coaches aren’t even in the same league as NFL coaches, young coordinators have never shown the ability to lead, and retreads have already proven that they can fail. The skills needed to make a person a great position coach or a great coordinator often have little overlap with what is needed of a head coach. And while it’s true that the skills needed to make a great college coach a great NFL coach are different as well, criticism of Kelly as ‘just a college coach’ is short-sighted. You can’t pluck the next Bill Walsh off of Craigslist. Kelly is smart, creative, and a proven winner. He can bring a level of clarity to an otherwise dysfunctional organization. To me, he’s the most attractive option out there for the half-dozen or so teams that will need a new coach in 2013.

The Chip Kelly Era Begins

I'll put it right out there. I have no idea if Chip Kelly is going to succeed. The odds are stacked against any coach who doesn't have NFL experience. But, then again, they're stacked against the ones who do as well. Most head coaches don't last more than four years.

To that end, I'm happy because whether or not he succeeds, Kelly is going to make things exciting in Philly. This is going to be the most exciting offseason in decades, as we anticipate new schemes and a revamped training routine. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Kelly was the smartest coach in college football. Maybe not the best recruiter or the best motivator or the one with the best NFL credentials, but the Eagles just went out and brought one of the brightest football minds in to run the organization. I can get behind that decision in a big way, win or lose.

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Thank goodness we're done with this coaching search, if only so we don't have to hear another beat reporter on Twitter complain about how tedious it's been for them. Give me a break, guys.

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Filling out a staff is the top priority for any head coach, but it will be especially important for Kelly. He needs assistants who can implement his unique system, not ones stuck in their own ways of teaching. Yet he also needs assistants who have lots of NFL experience, since Kelly himself has none.

Derrick Gunn reports that University of Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is at the top of Kelly's list to run the Eagles defense. With top talent at his disposal at Georgia for the last three seasons, Grantham put together highly-ranked defenses. Before that he was an assistant in the NFL for 11 seasons, including three as the Cleveland Browns coordinator (with poor results). Interestingly enough, from 1996 to 1998, Grantham served as Nick Saban's defensive line coach at Michigan State. He employs the 3-4 defense, a change that would require some serious personnel changes in Philly -- not that those aren't necessary anyway.

Another name that has popped up in the rumor mill: Mark Whipple, most recently the quarterbacks coach for the Cleveland Browns. Whipple coached at New Hampshire around the time Kelly played there, and was known for running wide-open spread passing attacks at the college level. He was also an offensive assistant in Philadelphia from 2007-2008, and Derek Sarley wrote a hopeful profile of him back then.

Other NFL assistants Kelly has coached with in the past include Pete Carmichael (OC, Saints) and Jack Bicknell Jr. (OL, Chiefs). Of course, he may also recruit a few Oregon coaches to make the NFL leap with him.

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Come on, Jon Gruden, you know you want to come back to Philly to be Kelly's offensive coordinator.

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Hiring Kelly was also a stick in the eye of a lot of naysayers. First, Joe Banner, who has trashed Eagles executives since he left and engaged in his own highly public pursuit of Kelly. The fact that his former protege Howie Roseman and (former?) friend Jeff Lurie beat him is wicked karma. Second, what about all those national reporters who attacked the Eagles organization for being unable to get a top coach? Jason LaCanfora said that Roseman is "drunk with power" and that his presence ruined any chance of Kelly coming to Philly. Since Roseman's persistent recruiting was actually key to Kelly leaving Oregon, LaCanfora is eating his words now.

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Interesting nugget about Kelly's version of "complete control" from Jeff McLane's story:

Kelly can be a control freak, two sources close to the coach said. But he is selective over the things he wants to control. Kelly will want little interference over how he coaches his team. He will want to decide on the strength and conditioning program. He will obsess over details as minor as what kind of thigh pads the players wear. As one source said, "He will turn that place upside down. But he only wants extreme control in certain areas."

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The quarterback question is huge going forward. In some ways, Kelly's Oregon offense decreased emphasis on the position. For example, the team averaged 53 rushes vs. only 29 pass attempts per game in 2012. Kelly cycled through four different quarterbacks without a drop-off in offensive production. Still, this is one of the trends I would be most skeptical about him being able to continue in the pros. The NFL is a passing league, and teams without top quarterbacks are relegated to also-rans.

So does Kelly have his quarterback of the future on the roster right now? I doubt it. He may be able to adjust the offense to accommodate Nick Foles, but I see little reason to install the Kelly offense only to deprive it of one of its best weapons -- the running quarterback. Plus, as I've written before, we don't have any idea yet if Foles is even worth changing an offense for. He's still unproven as a long term option.

Michael Vick certainly seems like he was created to run Kelly's offense, at least based on his athletic gifts. But at 33, he's not an option beyond a year or two -- and he may be too old to learn a completely different offense anyway. Plus there's the situation regarding his contract. No way he returns to the Eagles at all unless he accepts a pay cut. Still, I think if Kelly wants to try him out, there's some upside with Vick.

Other than those two, you have to start looking at trades, free agency, and the draft. Alex Smith might be an option. He's an efficient, if not explosive, passer and still retains some of the athleticism that allowed him to run for over 1000 yards in college. West Virginia's Geno Smith may be available at the fourth overall pick. He's a mobile QB, if not a running one. EJ Manuel out of Florida State may be a later round option.

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I love that there's a headline on Philly.com Sports right now that reads "Too soon to judge Kelly." I'm glad we're all waiting until at least his second week.

Photo from Getty.

The Gus Bus Is Leaving The Station

Jeff Lurie sent his private jet out to Seattle to collect Gus Bradley and bring him to Philly for a second interview. The smart money is on him not leaving Novacare without a signed contract. Time to get on board.

Awesome picture from Jake Louden.

Eagles Coaching Search: Go Big or Go Home

By the end of last week, I was more than ready for the Eagles' coaching search to be over. This third stage of the search process, when the top options have gone away and the team is reportedly picking over the leftover bin, is excruciating. While there are still a few names out there that seem attractive (Gus Bradley, I'm looking at you), many fans anticipate a disappointing announcement.

But fan disappointment is nothing compared to the sudden onslaught of negative national media attention shining on Jeff Lurie's search. On Monday this came to a sudden head with a few prominent reporters casting judgment. Overall, I find their line of criticism lacking.

First we have Peter King (emphasis mine):

I think that, while I agree that the Eagles' aggressiveness in interviewing the best college coaches (minus Nick Saban) in the country is good, it says much about the impression of this franchise that Chip Kelly, Bill O'Brien and Brian Kelly all either turned down the chance to coach the team or withdrew their names from consideration after being interviewed.

I understand the vagaries of college coaches interviewing for jobs, and how some of them (most, maybe) want to use the interviews to better their lots in college. But the Eagles have averaged 10.4 wins a year, with nine playoff appearances since the turn of the century. That's about as good as it gets, aside from the Super Bowl drought, in a highly competitive league. But now, this could be a team trending downward...

Fine. But would three premier college coaches say no to the Steelers? The Giants? The Packers? Don't think so.

King tries to cast aspersions on the Eagles' claim to being a top franchise, but it's funny to see him do it while hedging so strongly. In fact, you could take his two caveats and build a stronger argument. The Eagles struck out interviewing college coaches -- but is it so bad that they tried? I agree with Lurie that some of the most exciting names are in the college game, and it would be disappointing if he didn't go after O'Brien and (Chip) Kelly.

Kelly has now declined an NFL job three times over, with completely different franchises. It sounds like he isn't waiting for organizational control or anything so much as a job that assures him a similar comfort level to what he enjoys at Oregon. Not sure he'll ever find that. O'Brien, meanwhile, needed to wrap up his NFL flirtation as quickly as possible, since he had recruits to retain and a reputation to uphold. That he leveraged the Eagles' interest into a raise and more was no big surprise.

Jason LaCanfora took the issue further than King with this hit piece:

I wish I had a dollar for every time someone told me one esteemed coach or another advised one of the Eagles' top candidates not to take the job precisely because of Roseman's presence there. Roseman isn't the general manager they should tie their wagon to. It's clear Chip Kelly wasn't leaving Oregon for anywhere unless he had a large measure of control over the organization, and owner Jeffrey Lurie has already entrusted that to Roseman. There has been trepidation by some candidates to go all-in given the questions about this existing power structure.

The rumblings about Roseman lacking nuance and foresight, about him turning people off with how drunk with power he's become, only grow louder as his coaching search grows stranger.

I think it's possible that, despite Lurie's protestations to the contrary, Howie Roseman is a terrible GM and a negative aspect to the Eagles head coaching job. But LaCanfora paints this as the sole reason the team failed to hire one of their top candidates. Notice how he conveniently leaves out that Kelly could have gone to Cleveland instead, where he could have not only avoided the dreaded Roseman, but also hand-picked his own GM?

All of this speculation is misguided. It's not as if the Eagles wanted Rob Chudzinski or Doug Marrone and the Browns/Bills were more attractive situations. They went after big names and failed to reel them in. That's disappointing from an organizational and fan perspective, but it's not indicative of any greater dysfuction.

The team's main problem right now is one of perception. They look desperate. While the Browns gave up on college coaches all together and settled on Chudzinski, the Eagles were still tilting at the windmill. They went after the second, lesser Kelly, even though no one expected the Notre Dame coach to leave South Bend and few thought he would be a good NFL coach. Then they interviewed Brian Billick, one of the worst TV analysts out there.

Sure, as people like Dan Graziano point out, the Eagles have a questionable GM, no franchise QB, and a fanbase and local media market that's known for being ruthless -- as if other franchises who needed to clean house this offseason are in such great shape. Hysteria aside, the Eagles job is still quite attractive, and I expect Lurie to come to a conclusion on the new coach in the next few days.

Photo from Getty.

Why Not Jon Gruden?

File this one under "Wish I had written it." Sheil Kapadia does a great job raising the question of Jon Gruden. When you've gone as far as having interviewed Brian Billick, Gruden starts to look very attractive:

If the Eagles looked into the Gruden possibility and decided against it, that’s OK. Maybe there are issues from when Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator back in the 90s. Maybe he’s making unreasonable contract demands. Maybe he wants full personnel control. Or maybe the story of how things fell apart in Tampa is even worse than we know. After all, it hasn’t been just the Eagles. No team has expressed interest publicly in Gruden this offseason. If Lurie and Howie Roseman did their homework and decided Gruden would be a bad fit, that’s fine...

Considering his comments at the beginning of the search and the nature of the process, Lurie would be making a mistake if he didn’t at least look into Gruden as an option somewhere along the line.

I Have a Coaching Favorite, and His Name is Gus Bradley

Lovie Smith interviewed with the Eagles on Thursday and left without a contract. At this point, unless there's a mystery candidate out there that we haven't heard of, it seems likely that the team is waiting on one of the playoff coordinators. Among that group, the guy I'm by far the most excited about is Gus Bradley, the Seahawks defensive coordinator. We've already read some of Monte Kiffin's praise for his former assistant. Here's more:

"He really is exceptional," Kiffin, now USC's defensive coordinator, said in a phone interview. "You could tell. He's not just a really, really smart coach; he's got a great personality. He connects with the players really well.

"He reminds me of (Steelers coach) Mike Tomlin. We hired Mike at 29-years-old out of the University of Cincinnati. It didn't take long to know that Mike was special, and I knew from Day 1 that Gus was special. He'll be a head coach in the NFL. He's got no panic. Some people do, it doesn't mean they're not really good coaches, but Gus, he's special. When he interviews, he'll knock your socks off. I'm not trying to pump him up, but I know what he is. He's put it on tape up there."

Let's go Falcons, let's go!

Head Coach Search Diary: When Will It End?

This Friday will be exactly 14 years to the day after Andy Reid was hired to be the last Eagles coach. Hopefully this search is also getting to the end. It's rapidly reaching the point where I'm glancing at Twitter every hour hoping to see one final rumor that ends it all.

Although it's been less than two weeks since Reid was fired, the Eagles have now entered the third stage of the search process. First was the wide open possibility of candidates, when the Eagles were connected to everyone and anyone. For example, they tried to interview all three coordinators with the Atlanta Falcons, just because they could. In the second stage, the Eagles honed in on what seemed like their top two choices, according to reports: Chip Kelly and Bill O'Brien. Both decided to return to the college ranks instead.

This has left the Eagles with a shrinking pool of candidates. You have your playoff coordinators, like Mike McCoy or Gus Bradley, who look promising but may not be available for weeks. You have your retread candidates, like Lovie Smith, who will interview on Thursday. And you have your wildcards, like Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly -- a last-dtich grasp into the receding college ranks.

It's tough to handicap at this point. I think Smith has as good a shot as anyone right now. He's a stoic, capable Andy Reid-type with experience running a winning franchise -- but almost exactly the opposite strategic strengths. While Reid needs a capable, independent defensive coordinator while he runs an always solid offense, Smith needs things the other way around. Luckily, he's been a fantastic defensive coach, finishing lower than 11th in DVOA only once since 2001. If you could pair him with the right offensive mind, perhaps even another recently fired head coach like Norv Turner or Mike Mularkey, you might have the makings of a smart staff.

Bradley is the younger and more exciting defensive head coach pick. He doesn't have Smith's experience, but no one has anything but great things to say about his future. For the Eagles' sake, I hope the Seahawks lose this weekend so that Bradley becomes available. Besides that, suppose there's always Bruce Arians to fall back on. That kind of selection unfortunately doesn't come with the experience of Smith or the upside of Bradley. Let's hope things don't get that desperate.

Photo from Getty.