On Lane Johnson, EJ Manuel, and More

The Eagles stayed in their fourth overall spot on Thursday night and selected the offensive tackle from Oklahoma, Lane Johnson. Needless to say, I'm a big fan of the pick. As I've discussed on multiple occasions, the offensive line was a huge question mark given age, injuries, and general uncertainty on the right side. With one move, the Eagles have turned the line into a strength. If Johnson can start on the right side immediately, it moves Todd Herremans back to an easier position at guard and eliminates Danny Watkins from our collective memory. Johnson also injects youth and versatility onto the line. He has the potential to take over at left tackle from Jason Peters down the line.

One of the things that came across in Chip Kelly's press conference was that Johnson is still raw, but the Eagles have confidence in a player of his athletic ability. Check out how he scored in the combine versus other tackles via his Mockdraftable profile at right. Johnson is elite across the board, with the biggest detriment coming with his skinny frame of only 303 lbs. Fun fact, though, the Eagles apparently measured his wrists and ankles to determine that he can add up to another 20 lbs without problem (#SportScience). As Jimmy Kempski writes, the Eagles now have one of the most athletically gifted offensive lines in the NFL. Kelly must love that. Read more on Johnson from Tommy Lawlor.

Another intriguing aspect of the first round was drama surrounding quarterback. EJ Manuel was a surprise as the first QB selected, way up at #16 overall. Manuel himself suggested that the Eagles were one of just a few teams heavily interested. I'm not surprised by that, since he would be perfect for Kelly's offense. But it seems that the Bills, anxious to beat other teams, jumped on Manuel before anyone else had a shot. I wonder if the Eagles were prepared to go back into the bottom of the first round to get Manuel. They certainly could have hoped that Geno Smith and Ryan Nassib would have drawn more attention early. At this point I doubt that Smith would remain a target for the Eagles at 35, although you never say never.

What I'm really looking for next on the Eagles draft board is some defense. While the team will (and should) certainly be open to tight ends with potential, the other side of the ball is what needs the most help. The Eagles have eight remaining picks, and could gather some more if they trade down at all. I tend to think at least six of those will be used to aid the defensive transition. Another safety, perhaps, like Johnathan Cyprien, or a big body like Jesse Williams or John Jenkins could be in order in the second round.

Photo from Getty.

Should vs. Will: Pre-Draft Eagles Offense Breakdown

The draft finally arrives this week, which means it's time to take one final look at the Eagles roster and figure out where the team stands, what spots are in good shape, and what is in desperate need of a talent infusion. Today we'll take on the offense, noting what I think the Eagles should do at each position against what I think they will do.

Quarterback: Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Dennis Dixon, G.J. Kinne -- one of these things is not like the others. I mean, sure, "Everybody has two legs," but plenty of read-option in mini-camp reinforces what kind of player Chip Kelly is looking for. Foles is not in the long term plans. Unfortunately, none of the other guys look like they are either. Vick is a workable stopgap, but the other two players are no more than third-string system fits. The question is whether this draft gives the Eagles an opportunity to add that franchise quarterback. Consensus seems to be that Geno Smith isn't worth the fourth overall pick. EJ Manuel is really the only other athletic quarterback likely to be taken early -- and he comes with even higher risk.

QB Should: Don't over think it. Quarterback is the most important position and you need to take them early and often. Smith has all the NFL tools plus experience running a fast-paced offense. I would trade back a few slots and draft him. And if not Smith, than seriously consider getting Manuel at the top of the second round. QB Will: Nothing, maybe a late round pick. Start looking at the 2014 class.

Running Back: LeSean McCoy said the new offense is "like a freaking track meet," yet as of this moment there are only three running backs on the roster: McCoy, Bryce Brown, and Chris Polk. Assuming he has worked on his fumbling issues, Brown joins McCoy to make one of the most dynamic 1-2 backfields in the NFL. But who else will be taking the baton? Polk was a good player in college, but he had a shoulder injury and didn't play at all as a rookie -- although the team kept him on the roster all year. Can't expect anything from him at this point. The niche this group needs to fill is a smaller third-down back to slot in with McCoy's shifty stardom and Brown's raw, big-bodied talent. If Kelly's offense works out, there should be plenty of space for all three to run through.

RB Should: Early round running backs need to be players who can start, but I'm focused on later in the draft. Whether it's Kenjon Barner or Kerwynn Williams, a speedster with bonus kick return skills would be a perfect fit. RB Will: At least one late-round back plus another two UDFAs.

Wide Receiver: The Eagles currently have 12 receivers on the roster. Most of them aren't much more than camp bodies, but there are hard decisions to be made at the top. In the short term, I doubt Jason Avant is long with this team seeing as old, slow receivers wouldn't seem to be at the top of Kelly's wishlist. Jeremy Maclin, meanwhile, is entering his contract year. No one can deny his overall production over his first four seasons, and I'm always in favor of retaining young talent. That said, he's never developed into the star that many expected and probably isn't worth top free agent money. Outside of those two and DeSean Jackson, there's not much to go on. Riley Cooper and Arrelious Benn have flashed talent and it would be fabulous to see one of them step into the valued "big WR role" we've been waiting for.

WR Should: Trade "culture carrier" Avant to Andy Reid for some seventh round pick he doesn't want. Draft a WR in the fourth-fifth round with starting potential; without knowing exactly what Kelly's looking for, it's tough to pick out one or two. WR Will: Keep Avant at least through training camp, draft a late round receiver.

Tight End: On the surface, you don't need to tinker much with this spot. Brent Celek has been an above-average tight end for years and the team just signed James Casey to take on expanded, versatile role. Clay Harbor deserves some competition but otherwise they're in good shape. I wonder, though, what Kelly and Howie Roseman think about Celek long term. You don't sign Casey if you think the incumbent can already perform as well, and starting in 2014 Celek costs nothing to cut.

TE Should: Focus on more pressing needs and check back in a year. Add a high-risk, high-reward late round pick or UDFA to compete. TE Will: In a good class, draft a third-fourth round tight end with upside. Travis Kelce, anyone?

Offensive Line: I've called the offensive line the biggest question mark on the team. Ideally, Jason Peters, Todd Herremans, and Jason Kelce will return from injury, joining Evan Mathis as four-fifths of a great line. But that's no guarantee, and it doesn't start to answer any of the subsequent questions: what about right guard? what about depth? what about the future? The unit needs an infusion of talent to compete across all positions and the team did next to nothing to address that in free agency.

OL Should: Outside of my general admonishment to never pass on a QB, this is where I'd put my focus with the fourth overall pick. Eric Fisher looks like a perfect combination of need and value. Best case scenario he would start at right tackle immediately, pushing Herremans inside. I also wouldn't hesitate to pick up another linemen or two later on. OL Will: Draft Fisher. I'd peg this as the most likely outcome on Thursday.

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Geno Smith and Expected Draft Value

I hope everyone is reading Brent Cohen's work over at Eagles Rewind. He's playing with stats and coming to interesting conclusions, especially with his PVM (Positional Value Multiplier) prospect rankings that add a discerning adjustment to the standard draft preparation.

Brent's goal is to take the consensus draft prospect rankings and apply two main modes of adjustment. First is a risk factor that attempts to quantify how reliable different positions are. He shows that offensive tackles, for example, have a bust rate of only 26%, compared to 50% for quarterbacks and 66% for running backs. One can quibble with the metric (you might adjust for likelihood of Pro Bowl appearances instead of failure to start), but it's a good one to have. The second main adjustment is for positional value, i.e. how much one player is worth relative to another at a different position. Brent uses salary cap data to show a clear hierarchy, from centers and guards at the bottom to defensive ends and quarterbacks (far and away) at the top. Again, you can quibble with the exact numbers, but it's quite promising stuff.

The PVM rankings that emerge are interesting to look at. Certain players receive bumps -- especially quarterbacks. Others fall slightly, like guards and centers. The final result is not a radical departure from the original consensus, but that's not Brent's goal.

It is mine, though. I look at the numbers pulled, especially on salary cap figures, and it's obvious to me that there's a huge disparity in value between different positions. Brent's cap percentages are at right, and you can see that while the middle group is close, there are certain spots that vastly outweigh others. As I described above, the PVM rankings make an adjustment along these lines, but it doesn't come close to matching the discrepancies in value. In expected value terms, if you have two similarly-talented prospects -- one a center and one a defensive end, you should take the defensive end every time. In fact, if you take it literally, the center would have to be three times as good of a prospect as the end to warrant consideration.

Maybe this is too extreme of an adjustment for your tastes. If you want something closer to the consensus prospect values, Brent's PVM should serve you well. But I think this more accurately represents the reality on the ground. Chance Warmack may become a Pro Bowl guard -- many scouts rate him as the best player in the draft. But there's a strong case to be made, based on this data, that he would have to be 1.5 times better than the next best cornerback, 1.8 times better than the next best defensive end, or 2.7 times (!!!) better than the next best quarterback.

Plenty of caveats apply here, including the risk factor that I mentioned above. And you may either disagree with the salary cap distinctions entirely or have a more refined model based on it. I also haven't run my own projections for using this data to provide an updated draft list.

But if you look at the draft through this qualitative lens, it's easy to make an affirmative case for a quarterback, even Geno Smith. At this point I don't expect the Eagles to draft him. Most scouts consider Smith the best quarterback prospect, but also suggest that he wouldn't be so in previous years. Average rankings seem to consider him about 20th overall. That doesn't seem like the type of player you want to use your top five pick on.

However, I've said before that you always take the quarterback if you think he's your guy and the data backs that up. A good starting quarterback is worth nearly 50% more than the next most valuable position, according to salary cap numbers (and one might argue that's understating it). It's importance towers over other concerns. That means that even if Smith has a worse chance than average to become a good starter, his expected value from that smaller probability is still high -- likely higher than many players who will be drafted ahead of him. Smith may not be the safe pick, but if the goal is to maximize value, he may be the right one.

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No Quarterback, No Problem?

Jeff McLane writes:

There may be plenty of reasons the Eagles won't draft Geno Smith with the No. 4 overall pick. But Chip Kelly's belief that his offense can thrive without a franchise quarterback suggests that a team with many needs will pass on the West Virginia prospect... Kelly stated two weeks ago at the NFL owners meetings that his system doesn't require a Tom Brady-like quarterback "because we didn't have a traditional marquee quarterback at Oregon."

I wouldn't necessarily take those words at face value, especially when Kelly also described quarterback as "the key position" in the NFL. Still, this highlights one of the biggest doubts I have about transporting Kelly's offense to the pros. I've discussed this before -- just because he had a 65 percent run-to-pass ratio at Oregon doesn't mean he can slot in any quarterback at this level. The best teams have the best quarterbacks, and I'm skeptical of any suggestion that Kelly can do without one long term.

Connor Barwin and the Pass Rushers

The Eagles made a surprise move on Thursday, adding 3-4 outside linebacker Connor Barwin. The initial reports of the deal were of an imposing six-year, $36 million contract. But only the first two years are guaranteed ($8 million), and the three-year total is just $13.5 million. That's quite a reasonable deal for a young pass rusher, although it muddles the overall defensive picture. Let's talk it out.

First, there's Barwin himself. The 26-year-old former Houston Texan was drafted in the second round in 2009. In his first season (as a 4-3 defensive end), Barwin registered 4.5 sacks in a backup role. After an injury in the 2010 opener caused him to miss the entire season, he returned as a starting OLB in Wade Philips' 3-4 defense the next year, notching 11.5 sacks. Last year, while he played 94 percent of the team's defensive snaps, Barwin regressed to only 3 sacks.

It's tough to know exactly what that means. 19 sacks in your first three real seasons is impressive, although Barwin would be making a lot more money if his 2011 results had come last year. Pro Football Focus' pressure per play numbers were never that high on Barwin, even during 2011, and they declined further in 2012. Howie Roseman excused that performance, saying Barwin had fewer opportunities last year to play on the "open side" of the formation away from the tight end. He did rush the passer 86 percent of the time.

Overall I think the move is fine. The more detailed contract numbers suggest that Barwin is being paid like an above average but not great pass rusher. At only 26, he still has upside, and he's the first guy the Eagles added with extensive experience as a 3-4 edge rusher. Plus, his 6'4", 260 lb. frame fits Chip Kelly's new physical mandate. Tough to argue with any of that.

The bigger question is how the Barwin signing dominoes through the rest of the lineup. The Eagles have three incumbent players who seem likely to be slotted at outside linebacker: Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, and Vinny Curry. Without much data on Curry, he was going to be fighting for playing time regardless. Graham came on strong last year, with 5.5 sacks and a ridiculous 17.3 PRP from Pro Football Focus. It's unclear if he can make the transition to the 3-4, but he does seem to have a bright future ahead of him. Cole had a down year, though, and he's entering his age 31 season. His ability to convert to a new defense is even more suspect. If Cole's contract wasn't so onerous he would have been traded by now.

Another complicating layer is that we don't know what the defense is really going to look like. If they go with the Billy Davis hybrid, all of the above players seem more like Predators than SAMs; they're primarily pass rushers who rarely drop back into coverage. Of course, having too many good pass rushers is rarely a problem, and Kelly is always preaching about catering the scheme to the players on hand. Final note: I doubt that the Barwin signing prevents the team from drafting another OLB early. To reiterate, there are questions with all of the current players, and the newcomer's deal is smaller than first thought. There are no guarantees going forward.

Other Notes:

Cary Williams & Kenny Phillips continue the trend of youth and high risk-reward signings that makes sense for a rebuilding team. A player like Philips, for example, has proven to be a good safety. A small bet on his health is a smart move, and it's even better in the secondary, where the team needs a complete overhaul.
Sheil has good notes on Geno Smith's workout with the Birds. Interesting to hear what kind of drills Kelly ran him through.

Photo from Getty.

The Geno Smith Parade

The Eagles worked out the West Virginia QB earlier this week in Morgantown, and they brought owner Jeff Lurie with them. When asked if that means the Eagles are going to take a quarterback early in the draft, Chip Kelly demurred. From Tim McManus:

“You know, I don’t know,” said Kelly. “I know one thing about since I’ve been here is we’re going to look at anybody and everybody that can help us win football games. If it takes us getting on a plane to watch a guy go work out or bring someone in, they’re not going to be the last two guys that we go to see or bring in here to see. Just because it’s quarterbacks people get enamored with that.”

Smith is widely considered the best quarterback in the draft and the Eagles hold the No. 4 pick, so obviously it will get people’s attention when word gets out that the team brass hopped a flight to work him out. That is especially true when owner Jeffrey Lurie is along for the ride.

I'm torn on what this means for the Eagles' plans, but at the end of the day I come down on the side that they are actually less interested in Geno Smith than we might have thought. Sure, they sent a full contingent of coaches, scouts, and even Lurie down to watch him. Due diligence is important. But I think if he were really at the top of the team's list, they would have been more subtle.

Remember: last year the Eagles paraded Dontari Poe past reporters at NovaCare, then sent Jim Washburn down to Mississippi to work out Fletcher Cox in private.

The Eagles' Quarterback Calendar

One of the most intriguing areas to watch this offseason will be the Eagles' maneuvering to find their 2013 quarterback. To that end, there's a clear month-by-month path that they have to undertake -- and it begins next week.

February 6: If Michael Vick remains on the roster after this date, $3 million of his salary automatically becomes guaranteed. That makes the 6th the first important marker in the Eagles' decision-making process. Do they keep Vick, absorbing the contract hit because his athleticism may still be the best option for Chip Kelly's offense?

That's unlikely. Vick still has great mobility and a rocket arm, but his decision-making, despite a few years of tutoring from Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg, is questionable. Moreover, even if you can keep Vick happy and teach him a new offense, the upside is limited. He still wants to start, but will turn 33 before training camp with significant wear and tear on his body. At best you're buying a stop gap option, and that doesn't seem worth the $3 million guarantee. Expect the Eagles to sever ties with Vick after the Super Bowl.

[Update: As Sam Lynch points out, there is also the possibility that Vick and the team renegotiate his contract to avoid the guarantee. Not sure that's likely, but it's another outcome.]

March 12: Free agency begins. Unfortunately, there aren't many quarterbacks out there of note. Still, the Eagles should be dipping their toes into this pool if they let Vick walk. Players like Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Moore, and Jason Campbell are best suited to a backup role, but they might rather get a shot of competition in Philadelphia than automatically sit on the bench. Are you scraping the bottom of the barrel here? Sure. But every team needs depth and competition at the QB spot, and these options aren't going to be expensive. Maybe you get away without signing someone if you think Trent Edwards can adapt.

April 1: The only potential free agent who actually may be able to start is Alex Smith, currently under contract with the Super Bowl-bound 49ers. Smith, according to reports, has a contract clause that kicks in on April 1st that makes his entire $7.5 million salary guaranteed. San Francisco certainly isn't going to pay that, so they will look for suitors before having to cut him outright.

The Smith case will be interesting to watch because of the multitude of factors at play. The 49ers have to trade him in the month of March, or else cut him. They have little leverage unless multiple bidders step up. The question is, who would bid highly for Smith? At first glance, there are seven teams who will be in the Franchise QB hunt this offseason: Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Arizona. Most of them are in rebuilding phases where buying a soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback isn't on the agenda. Plus, John Harbaugh and the 49ers haven't exactly treated Smith like a franchise guy. They openly flirted with Peyton Manning, then benched Smith in the middle of his best season for an unproven second-year player. That doesn't seem like a quarterback in whom you want to invest.

If I were the Eagles, I would part with a 2013 late round pick or a conditional selection in 2014 based on playing time for Smith. Certainly if the 49ers cut him, you have to investigate. He's no great quarterback, but competence and a dash of athleticism could still be valuable.

April 25-27: The NFL draft. If the Eagles handled free agency properly, they should have Nick Foles and at least one other potential starter (or at worst, a fair backup) at this point. You never want to enter the draft with a glaring need, especially at quarterback, or other teams will use that knowledge to their advantage. Plus, you just can't count on getting the guy you want.

Unfortunately, the Eagles (and other teams) are shackled with a poor class of quarterbacks. It's even poorer when you look for guys who could fit Chip Kelly's system. The order of all of these players is still being sorted out, but from what I've been reading, there are only a couple that really interest me. In the first round, Geno Smith out of West Virginia could be an option. No one thinks he's the second coming of RGIII, but he had a lengthy, productive college career throwing from the pocket and has some mobility to boot. Smith also seems likely to score highly on the Football Outsiders Lewin Forecast.

While first round picks are less expensive than they once were, the Eagles shouldn't reach for Smith with the fourth overall pick unless they're sure he can be an elite guy. A later round option is EJ Manuel, the Florida State quarterback who was just named Most Outstanding Player at the Senior Bowl. Here's what Mike Tanier said about him last week:

Manuel is impressive on film and when discussing his game. He is not nearly as impressive when standing in a pocket and distributing passes in a stripped-down game plan. He has the size coaches covet (“He looks like a tight end out there,” Detroit Lions/South Squad coach Jim Schwartz said) but his best bet will be to follow the route of Wilson: earn a mid-round selection and find a coach amenable to his playing style -- perhaps Chip Kelly, who recruited Manuel out of high school and now coaches the Eagles.

Sounds promising. The nice thing about Manuel is that he potentially fits Kelly's style, and also wouldn't cost a top pick. Consensus suggests he's more of a 3rd-5th round prospect (at least, before his Senior Bowl performance). At that low risk, I'd draft Manuel in a heartbeat. Let him compete for the job in an up-tempo spread offense like he's used to. If it works out, maybe you've caught something similar to Russel Wilson. If not, move on without any huge cost.

July 22: Training camp will start sometime at the end of July. This is when the real competition begins between free agents, rookies, and the incumbent Foles. One note about Foles: I don't have anything against him, but he's essentially the fall back option here. He's cheap and has shown some skills. Don't hand him anything. Let Foles prove that he deserves to start -- and that he can compensate for his lack of running skills.

April 24-26 (2014): I've discussed before how the best way to find a franchise quarterback is to keep throwing them at the wall until one sticks. The general outline of pairing Foles with a rookie and a veteran free agent seems like the best way to pursue that path this year. But the nice thing is that you're not wedded to anyone long term. If none of those options work this time, you start over again. Next year's draft could be loaded with talented, athletic quarterbacks like Logan Thomas, Tahj Boyd, Teddy Bridgewater, and Johnny Manziel. When at first you don't succeed: try, try again.

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Nick Foles Is Not Your Savior

On Monday, I showed you how Nick Foles' stats through 5 games compare to his rookie peers. There were some positive notes there, especially when you look over the last two games. If he can keep up that pace of NFL-caliber QB play over the final three weeks, then we can talk seriously about 2013. But I would caution everyone against thinking that the Eagles have solved their QB problem already.

In all likelihood, Foles is not the answer in 2013, let alone for the next decade. Could he be? Yes. But he needs to prove that he can be the guy, not have fans or front office personnel will him into the role. Our default evaluation stance should be skepticism. Here's why:

1. Foles may not be able to keep up his recent run of success. To my mind, even considering Foles the guy for 2013 is entirely contingent on him finishing the year strong. Some people are treating that as given, but it's not. Over the last two games, his best performances, Foles faced the 24th and 23rd-ranked pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders. He should look good against those teams. Furthermore, even in success Foles has been extremely lucky. Defenders have dropped multiple easy interceptions -- any one of which would have cost the Eagles the game on Sunday.

2. There is no guarantee Foles will improve over time. Remember in 2010, when Michael Vick blew everyone away and was given a contract extension? His renaissance didn't last long. While Foles may improve, make better decisions, work on accuracy and footwork and reading defenses -- opponents will improve as well. Teams figured out Vick, and with a rookie like Foles, they are only now starting to have the film to evaluate him. Whether that happens at the end of this season or next, they are going to catch up.

3. Immediate results mean little when you're thinking long term. Remember Bobby Hoying? Remember AJ Feeley? More recently, on other teams, think about John Skelton, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel. The list goes on and on. Just because a player (especially a rookie) holds their own initially doesn't mean they can be the franchise QB permanently. Whether it's regression to the mean or defenses realizing they can blitz the heck out of you, players who are anointed early often fail in the long term.

4. Remember Foles' pedigree. High draft picks are never guaranteed successes, but they have a much lower bust rate. Six quarterbacks were taken before Foles went with the 88th pick. Most teams passed him over three times. Historically, quarterbacks drafted near Foles have less than a 10 percent chance of making a single Pro Bowl. A couple of competent performances don't change those overall odds of success.

5. What is Foles' upside? On a related note, you have to consider his ceiling. Few people seriously thought that Foles, a mid-round pick, had NFL-starter potential. He was compared, pre-draft, to Skelton and Chad Henne. Jon Gruden compared him to Brad Johnson based on preseason performance. And there are hints of that limited upside in the film and the stats. Not super-accurate, not a great long ball, not a dangerous scrambler. Do you want to hitch your ride to a guy who may not ever be an "elite" quarterback?

6. The Andy Reid factor. Reid has always gotten the most out of limited and young quarterbacks, Feeley being a great example. Those carriages typically turn back into pumpkins on the way out of town. And with Reid gone next year, will the next coach be able to make the most of out a guy like Foles? Running the ball more would help, but it's no guarantee.

7. Seize the moment. This isn't specifically about Foles, but more about the Eagles' situation. Right now they are lined up for the fourth overall pick in the next draft. It's not often (hopefully) that you end up in a spot like that. Unfortunately, the QB selection looks barren, but if the team remains that high, they potentially will have the chance to get the top option like Geno Smith. You don't turn your back on that chance just because of a guy like Foles.

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