As The Coaching Carousel Turns

Playoff football was upstaged this weekend in Philadelphia as the Eagles coaching search stretched into a second week. While the Packers took care of Joe Webb (remember him?) and RGIII suffered a horrific and entirely foreseeable injury, all eyes in Eagles-land were looking toward Chip Kelly.

Kelly flirted with three teams, taking interviews with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, and the Eagles. Although the Browns have tried to distance themselves in recent reports, they clearly were all in on Kelly. Joe Banner made a full-court press to get him and came up short. The Eagles, while less committed to Kelly, certainly had him high on their list. They conducted a 9-hour lunch with Kelly on Saturday, which is easily the most absurd job interview description I've ever heard.

Ultimately, I think it's sad for the NFL that we won't have Kelly coaching in 2013. There's far too much talk about whether or not his offense could work at the professional level, instead of embracing the excitement of something new. Whether Kelly will ever coach in the NFL is now a serious question. He had his pick between three teams in different situations and chose to remain in Oregon instead. That's fine. There's a lot about the school that beats coming to Philly, especially in terms of control and lifestyle. There's no reason to draw broad conclusions about the Eagles job, as some have done, just because Kelly turned them down. I wish him all the best and hope that someday he finds a situation that feels comfortable. Those doors will always be open.

In other news, the Bills actually hired someone, Syracuse coach Doug Marrone. To me, he was a nice backup option, but nothing more. Like Steve Sarkisian, Marrone has turned around a school with awful recent history and made them respectable. He finished his four seasons at Syracuse with a 25-25 record, a major improvement from their 10-37 record under previous coach Greg Robinson. Still, the team plays in an increasingly makeshift Big East and his fourth season -- an 8-5 bowl-winning one -- wasn't so impressive. Marrone was offensive coordinator under Sean Payton with the Saints for three years prior, but how much of that offense was set by Payton? Fine hire, but I'm not sad at all that the Eagles didn't get a chance to interview him.

The Eagles are scheduling interviews with other people right now. Bruce Arians, the Colts offensive coordinator, missed that team's first round playoff loss because he was admitted to the hospital with nausea and headaches. Hopefully all is well with him, but I'm not in love with his candidacy either. As someone who started coaching football in the late 1970s, Arians is no young man (a decade older than Marty Mornhinweg). He has bounced around over the last decade as offensive coordinator in the NFL, but only started to get serious head coaching consideration this year when he filled in admirably for Chuck Pagano. Arians is riding high based on that goodwill, but the Colts were one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory. When you step back and dispassionately assess the situation, there's nothing that stands out as particularly promising about him..

Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, on the other hand, is a new name that sounds much more promising. The skinny on Bradley is simple. First, look at Sunday's game. After allowing 14 points early to the dangerous Redskins on Sunday, his innovative hybrid defense tightened up and didn't allow another point. No wonder the Seahawks are ranked fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Second, read what Monte Kiffin had to say about Bradley when he recommended him to then-Seahawks coach Jim Mora Jr. back in 2009:

"Monte says, 'J.L., listen to me. I have got a guy here in Tampa that is one of, if not, the finest football coaches I have ever worked with. He's an A-plus. He's a once-in-a-lifetime coach. You need to talk to him,' " Mora recalled. "He said, 'J.L., this guy is special. You have to bring him in. You have to talk to him.' "

Finally, watch Bradley lay into his defense on the sideline. Wouldn't it be fun to have a coach with that much fire on the sidelines in Philly? The 46 year-old only arrived in the NFL in 2006 after spending 15 years in the FCS college ranks (i.e. Division I-AA), but everyone praises him. You can read much more about Bradley here and here and here. As long as he can hire an experienced offensive staff, there's much to like about his candidacy.

Photo from Getty.

Head Coach Search Diary: Grab Bag

I started to profile each of the Eagles potential head coaching candidates, but at this point they're flying by too fast for me to write up a long post on each one. Plus, others have hopped on the bandwagon and done a lot of in-depth research already. Let's talk about some of the recently rumored candidates in more abbreviated fashion.

First up is the trio of Falcons assistants that quickly whittled down to just a pair. The Eagles' initial attempt to interview all of Atlanta's coordinators was bizarre. Both Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan only arrived a year ago, so it wasn't about importing talent from a top organization. And then you add special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong in the mix for no apparent reason.

Koetter -- profiled here by Jason Brewer -- pulled out of the search process yesterday when he received a long-term contract extension to remain with the Falcons. All I can say is good riddance. The former college head coach at Boise State and Arizona State ran the Jaguars offense from 2007-2011 with nothing positive to show for it. The Falcons have a good offense this year, but they had essentially the same DVOA before Koetter showed up. Nothing special there.

Nolan, on the other hand, has commanded a number of top NFL defenses over the last 20 years as coordinator or head coach. He's intriguing on that level, but that level alone. When he finally was promoted to the top job with the 49ers in 2007, he flamed out. Over four seasons he managed only a pitiful .327 winning percentage. Tommy Lawlor discussed Nolan and the other Falcons candidates, and he concluded that the coach may have learned from his mistakes, like Bill Belichick before him. One point Tommy makes is that multiple coaches recently have won Super Bowls with their second teams: Belichick, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden. I think that's quite unlikely in Nolan's case.

If you go back and look through all 32 retread candidates hired since 1999, you'll notice a striking pattern. The best second-chance coaches, while they may not have won a Super Bowl with their previous team, demonstrated some level of success. They had winning records overall. They won playoff games. Guys like Dungy, Gruden, John Fox, Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carroll -- they all finished their previous NFL job above .500 and with playoff games won. Belichick is actually the only successful retread coach I found who didn't have a winning record the first time through, although he did win one playoff game. Unless you think Nolan is a once-in-a-lifetime coach like Belichick, I wouldn't take those odds.

As to Armstrong, I'm sorry to say this but he seems like a classic Rooney Rule interview. He already interviewed with both the Bears and the Chiefs (right before Kansas City brought Andy Reid to town and seem likely to keep him there). What makes it especially obvious is that he's not even the best special teams coach out there. That would be Dave Toub of the Bears, who has managed to keep Chicago in the top ten special teams DVOA for all but one year since his arrival in 2004 (plus three number one overall finishes). The sad truth is that, even as offense dominates the league more and more, only one NFL offensive play caller is a minority. That limits the pool of potentially worthy Rooney Rule interviewees. 

Two other fringe candidates that were mentioned in connection with the Eagles, at least in passing, were Syracuse coach Doug Marrone (see Jason's profile) and Washington coach Steve Sarkisian. Both have turned downtrodden college football programs into at least respectable successes. Neither has a resume that screams home run, but they are offensive gurus with some NFL experience. Overall they seem like interesting Plan B choices, but nothing to get excited about right now. If the Eagles hired a defensive head coach though, luring one of these promising candidates back to the pros as a highly-paid offensive coordinator might be an interesting avenue to explore.

Mike McCoy, offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos, is reportedly scheduled to interview with the Eagles on Sunday. That's the first name on this list so far that I'm highly interested in. Jason did another breakdown for McCoy, and you can see what I mean. The 40 year-old played quarterback at the University of Utah and tried to bust into the NFL, CFL, and NFL Europe with little success. He ended up as an offensive assistant with the Panthers, and eventually became the quarterback coach for Jake Delhomme's best years. McCoy then jumped to Denver in 2009, where he worked under Josh McDaniels. Despite a poor overall record, the coaching duo actually made Kyle Orton look like a competent starter.

In 2011, John Fox came to the Broncos and kept McCoy on and gave him a chance to demonstrate some amazing offensive flexibility. After starting the season with Orton at the helm, McCoy masterfully rebooted the offense for Tim Tebow, using his (limited) strengths instead of forcing him into the old system. After that experiment ran its course, McCoy transitioned to working with Peyton Manning and helped the future Hall of Famer put up one of his best seasons at age 36. When Lurie talks about wanting a coach who can analyze the world of football, find "inefficiencies," and convert a team to take advantage, McCoy sounds like the type of coach he's talking about.

Photo from Getty