Head Coach Search Diary: Grab Bag

I started to profile each of the Eagles potential head coaching candidates, but at this point they're flying by too fast for me to write up a long post on each one. Plus, others have hopped on the bandwagon and done a lot of in-depth research already. Let's talk about some of the recently rumored candidates in more abbreviated fashion.

First up is the trio of Falcons assistants that quickly whittled down to just a pair. The Eagles' initial attempt to interview all of Atlanta's coordinators was bizarre. Both Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan only arrived a year ago, so it wasn't about importing talent from a top organization. And then you add special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong in the mix for no apparent reason.

Koetter -- profiled here by Jason Brewer -- pulled out of the search process yesterday when he received a long-term contract extension to remain with the Falcons. All I can say is good riddance. The former college head coach at Boise State and Arizona State ran the Jaguars offense from 2007-2011 with nothing positive to show for it. The Falcons have a good offense this year, but they had essentially the same DVOA before Koetter showed up. Nothing special there.

Nolan, on the other hand, has commanded a number of top NFL defenses over the last 20 years as coordinator or head coach. He's intriguing on that level, but that level alone. When he finally was promoted to the top job with the 49ers in 2007, he flamed out. Over four seasons he managed only a pitiful .327 winning percentage. Tommy Lawlor discussed Nolan and the other Falcons candidates, and he concluded that the coach may have learned from his mistakes, like Bill Belichick before him. One point Tommy makes is that multiple coaches recently have won Super Bowls with their second teams: Belichick, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden. I think that's quite unlikely in Nolan's case.

If you go back and look through all 32 retread candidates hired since 1999, you'll notice a striking pattern. The best second-chance coaches, while they may not have won a Super Bowl with their previous team, demonstrated some level of success. They had winning records overall. They won playoff games. Guys like Dungy, Gruden, John Fox, Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carroll -- they all finished their previous NFL job above .500 and with playoff games won. Belichick is actually the only successful retread coach I found who didn't have a winning record the first time through, although he did win one playoff game. Unless you think Nolan is a once-in-a-lifetime coach like Belichick, I wouldn't take those odds.

As to Armstrong, I'm sorry to say this but he seems like a classic Rooney Rule interview. He already interviewed with both the Bears and the Chiefs (right before Kansas City brought Andy Reid to town and seem likely to keep him there). What makes it especially obvious is that he's not even the best special teams coach out there. That would be Dave Toub of the Bears, who has managed to keep Chicago in the top ten special teams DVOA for all but one year since his arrival in 2004 (plus three number one overall finishes). The sad truth is that, even as offense dominates the league more and more, only one NFL offensive play caller is a minority. That limits the pool of potentially worthy Rooney Rule interviewees. 

Two other fringe candidates that were mentioned in connection with the Eagles, at least in passing, were Syracuse coach Doug Marrone (see Jason's profile) and Washington coach Steve Sarkisian. Both have turned downtrodden college football programs into at least respectable successes. Neither has a resume that screams home run, but they are offensive gurus with some NFL experience. Overall they seem like interesting Plan B choices, but nothing to get excited about right now. If the Eagles hired a defensive head coach though, luring one of these promising candidates back to the pros as a highly-paid offensive coordinator might be an interesting avenue to explore.

Mike McCoy, offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos, is reportedly scheduled to interview with the Eagles on Sunday. That's the first name on this list so far that I'm highly interested in. Jason did another breakdown for McCoy, and you can see what I mean. The 40 year-old played quarterback at the University of Utah and tried to bust into the NFL, CFL, and NFL Europe with little success. He ended up as an offensive assistant with the Panthers, and eventually became the quarterback coach for Jake Delhomme's best years. McCoy then jumped to Denver in 2009, where he worked under Josh McDaniels. Despite a poor overall record, the coaching duo actually made Kyle Orton look like a competent starter.

In 2011, John Fox came to the Broncos and kept McCoy on and gave him a chance to demonstrate some amazing offensive flexibility. After starting the season with Orton at the helm, McCoy masterfully rebooted the offense for Tim Tebow, using his (limited) strengths instead of forcing him into the old system. After that experiment ran its course, McCoy transitioned to working with Peyton Manning and helped the future Hall of Famer put up one of his best seasons at age 36. When Lurie talks about wanting a coach who can analyze the world of football, find "inefficiencies," and convert a team to take advantage, McCoy sounds like the type of coach he's talking about.

Photo from Getty

Sale in Aisle 22

Mike Klis, the Denver Post:

The Broncos have expressed interest in acquiring Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel, according to two NFL sources. However, the Broncos no longer believe they can strike a deal, even though trade talks advanced to the stage where the team presented two proposals — one for a late-round draft pick and the other involving a player.

5th or 6th round pick for a Pro Bowl corner like Samuel? Considering they received offers in the second round range last year, this could end up being even more of a disaster than it was already. I’ll withhold complete judgement until we see the actual deal go down, but this is a real indictment of Howie Roseman.

The Updated Odds on McNabb Destinations

A lot of quarterback moves in the NFL since free agency began. The Seahawks got themselves a new, if unproven, quarterback of the future. The Browns exchanged two mediocre quarterbacks for two more. In fact, 15 of the league’s 32 teams have made some sort of change at the position.

So with all that change, some have suggested that the market for McNabb is drying up. Maybe to a degree, but there are still a number of teams who still seem like they would be interested at the right price. It’s been awhile since we last examined the options. Let’s give them a quick look, in rough order of likelihood:

• San Francisco 49ers — I still think the 49ers repesent the most likely destination for McNabb. They have the need, the means, and a demonstrated interest. With Kurt Warner’s retirement, San Fran is a good quarterback away from being the class of the NFC West. The defense is solid, the offense has talented playmakers from Gore to Crabtree to Davis. Last year, the Niners made a strong push for Warner — and despite their declarations of support for Alex Smith and commitment to David Carr as a back-up, McNabb would be a huge upgrade. Additionally, the team has two first round picks (13 and 17), which makes McNabb’s price tag feasible. Even McNabb would probably be happy there. The only big question I have is how their chaotic front office situation will affect their decision-making process.
• Buffalo Bills — I can see where McNabb would be hesitant to go up to moribound Buffalo, but the Bills are one of the few teams actually broadcasting a need for quarterback. Coach Chan Gailey and company have been open to the idea of a trade, and the team has already been burned twice by mediocre draft picks.
• Jacksonville Jaguars — Jack Del Rio has not been quiet about his disappointment with current starter David Garrard, and McNabb would be a big step up. He (or Michael Vick) would also boost attendance figures.
• Carolina Panthers — While the team is outwardly fine with going into 2010 with Matt Moore as their starter, that still would be a large risk for a coach and front office on the hot seat. Also, Moore is the only quarterback with any experience on the roster. Trading for Vick as a back up and possible challenger might make more sense, but McNabb could immediately put them back into playoff contention. They don’t have a 1st round pick, which hurts their chances at McNabb, but also at getting a QB of the future.
• Minnesota Vikings — Only jump back in to this discussion if Favre decides he’s not coming back, which seems like a longshot from here.
• Cleveland Browns — They’ve got two veterans for back-up/keep-the-seat-warm duty while they groom a mid-round QB prospect who catches Mike Holmgren’s eye.
• Seattle Seahawks — Found their guy in Charlie Whitehurst, apparently.
• Arizona Cardinals — McNabb’s dream destination appears to be a competition between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.
• Denver Broncos — Kyle Orton is the present. Brady Quinn (gag) is the future.
• Oakland Raiders — Don’t really see McNabb ever approving a trade to Oakland.

Certainly there are a lot of teams now out of the running. Sound off in the comments where you think McNabb will end up, if anywhere.

Thoughts on Quarterback Moves Around the NFL

So the big quarterback news of the past couple days in the NFL (alright, other than Tim Tebow’s new throwing motion) was the trade of 3rd-string Chargers QB Charlie Whitehurst to the Seattle Seahawks. According to ESPN, the Seahawks:

agreed to move down 20 spots in the second round and part with a 2011 third-rounder to acquire Whitehurst from San Diego.

According to the NFL Draft Value Chart, that package was worth about the last pick the in second round. In addition to that high compensation, Peter Carroll and Company promptly awarded their new acquisition with a 2 year, $10 million contract.

Second round pick, large contract. Sounds like an investment in the future starting quarterback. So what’s the catch?

Oh yeah: Whitehurst has never attempted a single regular season pass!

It’s obviously very surprising that Whitehurst could command such value. Sure, any quarterback drafted by Seattle would also be an unproven commodity, but that seems like a lot to give up for a guy who’s been in the league for 4 years and hasn’t shown anything.

I have mixed feelings about what this move means for the Eagles’ QB trade hopes.

• First, Seattle has pretty much taken themselves out of the quarterback market with this move. Whitehurst seems like he’ll be the quarterback of the present and future, with Matt Hasselbeck probably looking to the exit. Seattle was a hot possibility for one of the Eagles QBs, and this move makes some sense since they were rumored to be more interested in Kevin Kolb than Donovan McNabb. Whitehurst is basically a less talented, less accomplished version of Kolb.
• And while Seattle is no longer calling the Eagles front office, they are also probably not looking to spend more money on another unproven quarterback early in next month’s draft. That means one less suitor for the Eagles and one more prospect who might fall to another team (the Bills?), eliminating them from trade contention as well.
• However, the high price Seattle was willing to pay for an unproven commodity (and supposedly hot market for Whitehurst) shows that the Eagles aren’t necessarily overvaluing their quarterbacks. If Whitehurst is worth a #2 and $10 million, anyone interested in McNabb, a proven Pro Bowl QB, has to start talking about giving up at least a 1st rounder.

* * *

The Cleveland Browns were another team interested in the Eagles QBs. Over the last week, though, they’ve completely retooled that position. Mostly they kicked out two bad quarterbacks (Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson) and replaced them with two who don’t look a lot better (Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace).

It seems like Mike Holmgren, Tom Heckert, and Eric Mangini are willing to let those two veterans battle it out for the starting role next year, although they haven’t really endorsed either one as a long-term solution. Holmgren said about Delhomme:

“My own belief is this team needs an aging veteran. They need a guy that is going to grab everybody by the throat and say, ‘Follow me through that door.’ I don’t look at him as an aging veteran, I look at him as the leader I wanted.”

That reads to me as though Cleveland still really wants to take a quarterback in the draft. And with two mediocre quarterbacks to take snaps during the rebuilding process, maybe the team could take a chance on a project like Tebow.

I’m not sure Cleveland was ever really a great spot for McNabb or Kolb. When two teams make a deal for a player, you need a certain amount of imperfect information. In other words, the two teams have to value the players differently, and therefore both think they’re getting a good deal. In theory, Heckert and Andy Reid know the Eagles QBs so well, they won’t be able to make a deal they’re both happy with.

* * *

The Browns’ moves have other, reverberating effects throughout the NFL.

• Derek Anderson signed with the Cardinals to back-up and/or challenge Matt Lienart, eliminating Arizona from any McNabb discussion.
• Brady Quinn to the Broncos means Josh McDaniels has found his long-term quarterback. Doubt Denver will be looking at guys like Jimmy Clausen with their 1st round pick.

Where McNabb Will Go: The Breakdown

The speculation about where various Eagles QBs could end up never ends. Of course, that’s what we’re doing here. But ultimately some of the rumors make a lot more sense than others. There are certain scenarios where a player like Donovan McNabb is a great fit. There are places where Michael Vick fits. Mostly, however, those two groups of teams are completely separate. A team calling about McNabb isn’t looking for Vick, and vice versa — because they offer completely different things.

I will do another post on the situation for Vick in the next couple days, but there’s been some buzzing on the McNabb front, so we’ll start there — with what kind of team will be inquiring about Donovan, and then what specific teams fit that mold.

A team interested in #5 has to have these characteristics:

1. A Contender: No rebuilding team will want a 33-year-old quarterback with one year left on his contract. They’d much rather draft a prospect and rebuild in the next 2-3 years. Acquiring Donovan is a move made for next year — sacrificing a relatively high draft pick for immediate performance.
2. Have a Definite QB Need: If there’s still a large chance that the quarterback position will be fine, the team might inquire, but won’t really pursue McNabb.
3. QB Must be the Last Piece of the Puzzle: A GM would have to be convinced that all the team is lacking for a playoff/Super Bowl run is a good QB calling the shots. No reason to go after McNabb if the rest of the team isn’t there. Think Vikings’ pursuit of Favre. Everything else was in place, and waiting for Tavaris to mature took too long.
4. West Coast Offense: Unclear how much this is a factor. Adam Caplan and others have argued extensively that McNabb’s familiarity with the WCO limits his desirability, because he’ll have difficulty transitioning to any other system. I personally find it hard to believe, but certainly for any team that runs a WCO, this is a huge plus if they can get a guy like McNabb.
5. Willing to Offer Extension: McNabb is looking for job security. He won’t be happy to play for a one year rental somewhere. And the team that trades a high pick for McNabb probably won’t want to risk losing him after a year either.
6. Not a Definite Eagles Competitor: Andy Reid is quite simply going to ask a lot more from teams who the Eagles have to compete with. The game is all about relative gains, and trading McNabb a rival won’t help the Eagles’ chances. For example, McNabb’s not going to Washington. And while he could go to another NFC team, it would be much more expensive.

Okay, so let’s look at the teams McNabb’s been linked to, and how they fit this mold:

• Minnesota Vikings: Certainly the Vikings are major contenders for McNabb after their performance this year with Brett Favre. If Favre were to retire Brad Childress would have to give his buddy Andy a call. The biggest question is though, when will Childress know that? If he’s content to sit back and wait for Favre’s answer, it probably won’t come until at least the start of training camp. That’s not going to be conducive to a trade. Plus, I’m sure Andy would rather not trade him to a big NFC competitor. This would have to be at least a #1 pick, and Childress would have to decide he doesn’t want to wait for Favre.
• Arizona Cardinals: Similar situation to Minnesota, except they know that Warner is gone. That begs the question, is Lienart ready? Other than the West Coast Offense thing, McNabb looks like he’d fit right into the lineup with Fitz and Boldin. Again, there is the NFC contender issue to be sorted out.
• San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers fit this mold very well. You’re talking about a team with good skill players, good defense, but hasn’t had a quarterback in about 7 or 8 years. Their pursuit of Kurt Warner last year shows you how close they think they are to contending. And with their flop with Alex Smith still haunting them, I doubt they want to try another spin of the prospect  wheel. I think Andy would also find this more palatable than sending him to an already Super Bowl-contending team. They might even take something less than a #1 from San Fran.
• Oakland Raiders: All of this must be premised with the fact that Al Davis is a nut and could do anything. But I think Vick is much more likely here. McNabb could not overnight turn Oakland into a contender. There are still too many holes in that team. And there’s not a chance in hell Donovan will stick around to try to rebuild the black and silver. Also not sure Andy will feel comfortable shipping his QB off to someplace so crappy. That doesn’t seem like something you’d wish on a guy you mentored and owe so much to.
• St. Louis Rams: This team is not a contender. They need all the draft picks they can get.
• Cleveland Browns: See above.
• Chicago Bears: Stop people. They are wedded to Jay Cutler.
• Carolina Panthers: Not sure this is such a clear-cut rebuilding project as Rams or Browns. While starting over might be a good idea, John Fox won’t be the one doing it. To save his job and postpone that process he’s going to need a better season — not wait for some rookie to mature. McNabb could provide that (better than Matt Moore), chucking it to Steve Smith aka DeSean Jackson Sr.
• Buffalo Bills: Similar to Panthers. Might be better to blow stuff up. Not sure they will.
• [Updated] Denver Broncos: Not sure why I left the Broncos off this list. Josh McDaniels has already traded for one veteran QB, why not try again? If he could get a rookie, I think he’d prefer that though.

What all of this adds up to is that if I had to put money on McNabb’s final destination, it would be the 49ers. Their willingness to already pursue a similar solution in Warner makes sense. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wait for Favre and Arizona will give Lienart a chance. That’s just my analysis based on these criteria — and of course he might not get traded at all.  Feel free to sound off about what you agree or disagree about.