Third Day Eagles Draft Thoughts

As Friday night ended, the Eagles welcomed two more players to Philly, each giving us a another glimpse into the future under Chip Kelly. First was Stanford tight end Zach Ertz, a versatile and athletic weapon for the new offense.  A Stanford alum friend sent me a text right after the selection that just said, "Zach Ertz is a beastttttt." He lined up all over the formation last year and caught 68 passes, including 11 for 106 yards and a touchdown against Oregon. Kelly is clearly moving in the direction of a multi-tight end offense and this pick fits perfectly into that mold. In his press conference, Kelly talked about the match-up problems versatile tight ends can create:

"We are going to go three tight ends in a game. Now, if they go three linebackers, we spread them out and if they go DB's, we smash you. So, pick your poison. Simple game, isn't it? You guys thought coaching was hard. They bring little guys in, you run the ball. They bring big guys in, you throw the ball."

If they really are going to play a lot with three tight ends, I can see a lot of logic behind the pick. However, I wonder what this means long term for Brent Celek. James Casey was also brought in this offseason, but he's a smaller H-Back-type. Ertz, on the other hand, is basically a taller, faster version of Celek (many comparisons have been made to Jason Witten). The Eagles' incumbent starter only just turned 28, although Celek has taken a lot of big hits over the last six years and his salary from 2014-2016 becomes completely pay-as-you-go. He has no more guaranteed money after this year and can be cut or traded without cap penalty. If Ertz progresses quickly, I expect Celek will be playing for someone else before long.

With their third round pick, the Eagles selected 6'2", 309 lb LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan. After the pick, Kelly and Howie Roseman talked about how important it is that Logan has the versatility to collapse the pocket from the middle, as opposed to just being a run stopper. ​However, the NFL comparison CBS Sports makes for Logan may be instructive:

Compares to: Brodrick Bunkley, DT, New Orleans Saints -- Just as it was for Bunkley when leaving Florida State seven years ago, the talent is in Logan to develop into a legitimate NFL starter and perhaps even turn into a standout. To do so, however, he'll need to develop a greater array of pass rush moves. Otherwise, his strength and effort should be enough to help him carve out a niche as a solid run-stuffing presence in the middle.

​Bunkley was a massive man and unmovable force in the run game. However, he never did develop into that pass rush threat that the Eagles hoped for. Still, even if Logan remains limited, he seems like a great candidate to play the 5-technique defensive end and -- if he can add a few more pounds -- move inside to replace Isaac Sopoaga at nose tackle.

​As for Saturday's final rounds, my main desire is for the team to load up on defense. Sure, I'd like a speedy running back/returner and more offensive line depth is never a bad thing. But overall the offense seems fairly set. The Eagles collapsed in the last few years largely because they didn't have talent on defense. They're not likely to find any stars in the later rounds, but competition is desperately needed at cornerback and safety. Outside linebackers who can help with the 3-4 transition are important too, as are more big bodies if the right one falls.

Photo from Getty.​

The Past and Future at Defensive Tackle

On Monday, the Eagles parted ways with two veteran defensive tackles. The first, Cullen Jenkins, was a late-career mercenary hire in 2011, part of the free agent splurge that Joe Banner and company thought would put the team over the top. The other, Mike Patterson, was the longest-tenured Eagle, drafted with the team's first pick after the the Super Bowl. Neither cut was surprising; the new regime wants to get younger and less expensive. 

However, the moves do give us an opportunity to step back and assess where the Eagles were coming from after last season and where they're going in the middle of the defensive line. Let's look at some 2012 stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:​

The first two stats, Tackle % and Stop %, are about run defense: per snap, how often did the defensive tackle get in on the play and how often did he cause a stop. As you can see, the young guys led the group. Out of the 52 DTs with the most snaps, Fletcher Cox made the eighth-most tackles per play and the 12th-most stops. And that was only his rookie season. Cedric Thornton wasn't too far behind, posting above average numbers in both categories. While Mike Patterson barely played, the two other veterans Jenkins and Derek Landri logged more run snaps but came up short. Both players ranked toward the bottom in tackles and stops.

Moving over to pass rushing, we see that Jenkins played more of those downs than anyone and was still effective in that role, with the 14th-best Pass Rush Productivity rating (Pressure per play). However, the rookie Cox actually edged him out. In (mostly) Jim Washburn's scheme, Thornton and Landri were also reasonably effective. Both were above average out of the 69 most active pass rushers.

Alright, so that's where the team stood at the end of the season. What does it mean, and where do they go from here? With Patterson's injury keeping him off the field and no dead money on his contract, he was an easy cut. Landri didn't impress on tape or in the stats department and will be allowed to walk as a free agent. Jenkins requires slightly more explanation. Some people have suggested that his experience in the 3-4 would be valuable in 2013. But I'm not sure how much value he would actually have in Billy Davis' defense (or any 3-4). Jenkins still shows flashes as a pass rusher, but he was a liability against the run last year. This isn't someone the Eagles can stick at 5-technique defensive end.

What do the Eagles need from their defensive tackles? With the edge pressure positions likely filled through 2012 holdovers (Brandon Graham, Trent Cole) and the draft, the team needs a dominant inside pass rusher, a lane-clogging nose tackle, and a strongside all-around 3-4 end type. The inside one-gapping defensive tackle is an easy choice. That's Cox's role all the way. From the start he's been a fantastic rusher and run defender, and he should only get better. The nose tackle is a tougher position to fill. Returnee Antonio Dixon has the physical skills to play there, but there will certainly be other candidates brought in.

The question in my mind is Thornton. Jim Washburn liked him because he, like Cox, had inside pass-rushing skills. But breaking down the numbers, Thornton was actually a better run defender in his first extended NFL action. ​At 6'4", 309 lbs, he's a physically-gifted player. You could slot him in as Fletcher Cox's backup easily and hope that enables more pressure. But why not give him a shot at the 3-4 style strongside end? That position values run-stopping first, and Thornton can do that already. When the nose tackle comes off the field on passing downs, he can slide inside and provide interior pressure. With the old guys out of the way, that seems like a move that could maximize current talent in 2013 and beyond.

Photo from Getty.​

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Defensive Tackle

What the Eagles did: Around the end of January, I started to get the feeling that, other than linebacker, defensive line made the most sense for the Eagles in the first round. Then, as Derek Landri lingered in free agency longer than we expected and the team held a private workout with Fletcher Cox (in tandem with the Dontari Poe parade), the hints were getting stronger and stronger.

Still, I’m not sure any Eagles fan, even the most optimistic Cox supporter, necessarily expected the Eagles to snag a player who was instantly hailed as a perfect fit in Jim Washburn’s system. There aren’t many defensive tackles with Cox’s combination of size, speed, and production. With any luck Washburn can make him into a dominating force like Albert Haynesworth was. That’s not too much to ask, is it?

As to the rest of the group, let me once again put up the pass rushing stats from last year:

Unsurprisingly, Trevor Laws was let go. Although he had his moments last year, overall the former second round pick was a major disappointment. I suppose he has the excuse of having played for three different defensive coordinators and three other defensive line coaches during his four year tenure, if you want to throw him that bone.

Mike Patterson and Cullen Jenkins will be the starters. Both are solid veteran players, even if no one is likely to gameplan specifically for them. Jenkins’s 17 sacks over the least three seasons are near the top for all defensive tackles and while Patterson has generally been more of a run stuffer, you see above that Washburn made him the 17th most effective pass rusher in the league from that spot last year. Again, Cox’s ceiling is much higher, but until he’s ready these two are fine in the middle.

Just like with the defensive ends, the other backup spots at tackle are up in the air. Antonio Dixon probably has the inside track to the nose tackle job. He missed nearly all of last year, but signed a restricted free agent tender at the second round level. Derek Landri will certainly continue to make the most of his talents. He was tremendously productive in 2011, but got little interest in free agency. Then there’s Cedric Thornton, who spent most of last season on the team’s practice squad.

What I would have done: Howie Roseman on a roll. This position looks great.

Way-too-early prediction: Is it too optimistic to predict that Cox will start at least six games? Some combination of injury and ridiculous physical potential seem likely to make that happen. If not, he should at least make an immediate contribution in the rotation. As to the fourth spot, it must be Dixon’s to lose, given his youth and talent. Will be interesting to see if he can (a) show the spark he had in 2010, (b) adjust to Washburn’s scheme, and (c) be consistent — but I bet he’ll get every opportunity to do so. Landri’s probably fighting for the Eagles to keep five tackles as much as any specific other player.

Photo from Getty.

Eagles' Fletcher Cox Workout Comes to Light

Jordan Raanan, for BGN:

The Birds appear to have had a private workout some time in the past few weeks with Cox in Starkville. They sent defensive line coach Jim Washburn to run the former Mississippi State standout through some drills and get a better idea of what makes him tick.

“I talked to coach Wash,” said Cox, the current overwhelming favorite for the Eagles in the endless mock drafts at our disposal. “We’ve talked and he came down and saw me, worked me out a little bit. He just wanted to get to know me, see what kind of person I was.”

So Washburn worked out Fletcher Cox in private, and “accidentally” paraded Dontari Poe past the beat reporters at NovaCare. Hmmmm.

What Derek Landri Tells Us About DT Draft Plans

There’s no denying that Derek Landri was a great surprise find for the Eagles last season. While he looked good in training camp, the team couldn’t find a roster spot for him, but after Antonio Dixon was lost for the year, they got a pass rushing boost picking up Landri after week four.

Here’s a chart I posted before, showing Landri as the top pass rusher per snap among Eagles defensive tackles last year:

Tommy Lawlor spent some time yesterday talking about his favorite player of all time. He speculated as to why Landri hasn’t re-signed with the Eagles yet:

I imagine the Eagles are offering him a cheap deal and also aren’t guaranteeing any playing time. [Mike Patterson, Cullen Jenkins, and Dixon] are locks to play. The rookie and Ced Thornton should be battling for snaps. And there sits Derek Landri on the outside.

I think Tommy’s observation is astute, and it gives us a window into the Eagles plans regarding the defensive tackle position. Barring injury, Jenkins and Patterson will be the starters, and Dixon’s back-up spot is secure since he signed his second round tender.

The Eagles only kept four defensive tackles last season, and they are likely to do the same in 2012. Knowing that, Landri should be happy to sign on as the fourth guy, right? And the Eagles should be happy to have him, right?

Well, unless the Eagles are thinking about drafting another defensive tackle early in the draft. I’m sure Howie Roseman would like to have Landri back, but he won’t be handing out any kind of guarantee if Landri has no chance (outside of injuries) to make the roster. On the flipside, Landri won’t be eager to re-sign if he knows what’s going on.

At the end of the day, Landri may decide he doesn’t have any better options than to fight an uphill battle in Philly. But the length of time he’s taken to make his decision suggests that neither side is eager to have him back. And that, in turn, points to the imminent arrival of another, more important defensive tackle prospect.

Photo from Getty.

Looking at 2013 and the Eagles Draft Options

One if the most common mistakes that fans make is assuming that the Eagles will draft a player because of immediate need. That rarely happens. Most of the time, the team papers over current roster flaws with free agent signings and trades, acquiring DeMeco Ryans being a prime example.

You should never expect even a first round pick to contribute much in their rookie year. If you end up with a quick starter, great. But relying on guys like Danny Watkins right away will disappoint you early and often.

The question of what position is ripe to be drafted early has more to do, in my opinion, with looking a year or two down the road. Where are the aging veterans? Where are the likely holes in the team a year from now? Let’s take a look at the 2013 roster as it looks right now:

QB: Michael Vick, Mike Kafka
RB: Dion Lewis, Stanley Havili
WR: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Riley Cooper
TE: Brent Celek, Clay Harbor
OT: Jason Peters, Todd Herremans
OG/C: Danny Watkins, Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce, J. Vandervelde, M. Gibson
DE: Trent Cole, Jason Babin, Brandon Graham, Philip Hunt
DT: Mike Patterson, Cullen Jenkins
LB: DeMeco Ryans, Casey Matthews, Jamar Chaney, Keenan Clayton, Brian Rolle
CB: Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Curtis Marsh
S: Nate Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett, Kurt Coleman

With the notable exception of LeSean McCoy, every Eagles offensive starter and most of the backups are signed through the next two seasons. That’s great for the team, since the offensive unit has been much more consistently good than the defense over the last few years. There’s no reason to sit on that and not draft anyone, perhaps more OL and WR depth, but there’s no major need at any of these positions.

Defense is a different story entirely; there you are more likely to need guys than not. Defensive end is probably in the best spot going forward, with two Pro Bowl starters and two players with potential already lined up. The rest is a real crap shoot.

There are only two defensive tackles signed through 2013 (although Tommy’s presumably camped out on Derek Landri’s lawn right now). Both Jenkins and Patterson are starters, but they are getting up in age, too. At linebacker there are five players but it’s tough to trust any of them, with the possible exception of Ryans. Cornerback really only has Asomugha and Marsh, with Samuel packing his bags. And safety brings us three youngsters, none of whom have proven they can be above average starters.

With all that said, I think it would be justifiable to draft any defensive position, outside of DE, in the first round. There are a couple more factors to keep your eye on as we get closer to the draft. First, will Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie get a contract extension? I already discussed this at length, but some movement there could allow the Eagles to delay drafting another corner in the first round. Second, what do the Eagles do at outside linebacker? If they obtain another starter there, they could pass on Luke Kuechly and take a flier on a second or third round LB instead.

If the Eagles take action on both of those counts, odds are that the team will be picking among the deep class of defensive tackles with pick #15.

Photo from Getty.

Despite Jenkins' Return, DT is a Top Draft Priority

Les Bowen:

Even though Jenkins is 31 and might not be a long-term starter, his return, along with the return from injury of Antonio Dixon, might mean the Eagles don’t target a defensive tackle with the 15th overall selection in the April entry draft. If they re-sign pending free agent Derek Landri, that will become even less likely.

Disagree. As I briefly mentioned a few weeks ago, the defensive line is in need of young talent. This Cullen Jenkins contract restructuring is nice, but he’s not a long term solution at tackle. Nor is Mike Patterson, Derek Landri, or Trevor Laws. Plus, as Sheil Kapadia noted today, there’s already a robust rotation that would easily integrate a new addition.

All in all, if the Eagles address middle linebacker in free agency and Luke Kuechly remains the only consensus first round 4-3 linebacker, defensive tackle immediately jumps to the front of the line in terms of most likely early pick.