Breaking Down The Goal Line Debacle

Over on Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats site, you can see the live win probability for the Eagles-Cardinals game. Right at the end of the half, the Eagles were already down 17-0, and things weren't looking great. But with their final drive, they had a chance to tighten the score before halftime. A touchdown, narrowing the lead to 10, would have been positive — raising the team's win probability to 20 percent (and with this explosive offense, that might be a low estimate).

Of course, we know that didn't happen. Instead, the Eagles tried three times to stick the ball in the end zone, only to give up a 95-yard fumble return for a touchdown instead. That self-destructive 14 point swing cost the Eagles any chance they had of getting back into the game (probability: four percent). So what was the problem?

Michael Vick deserves some of the blame. If you replace him with Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees, the Eagles probably score. But that's unfair. The play calling also wasn't perfect, but that wasn't the main issue either. The real culprit was the Eagles lack of red zone weapons. With only dwindling seconds to work with and no timeouts, the offense had to take their most effective option — the run — off the table. Everyone knew Vick had to throw, and the Eagles couldn't out-execute the Cardinals in the face of that knowledge.

Let me show you what I mean. Below is the first down play. Even though running is impossible, they line-up in the I-Formation to fake it. Vick's three receiving options are fullback Stanley Havili and two tiny wide receivers — Damaris Johnson and DeSean Jackson. Not exactly murderer's row.

Here's what Vick sees when he first drops back. Not much there.

With DeSean covered, it's Havili or Johnson.

Havili looks open, but he's not in the end zone. If he gets tackled outside, you lose your shot. Inside, Johnson has broken free of his man, but there are multiple defenders in between him and Vick. Does he want to risk that pass?

Vick almost throws to Johnson, pump-fakes instead.

Again, he had two options, but there were defenders in the way (and in his face). A perfect throw gets this done, but Vick is hesitant — and with two more chances, why risk it?

The defender in red probably would have gotten any pass to Johnson. Vick throws it away.

Alright, let's move on to second down. You're going to see many of the same problems.

Here's the pre-snap alignment. Jason Avant and Clay Harbor at the top. DeSean below.

Everybody is covered man-to-man, pressure coming up the middle.

Vick's best option is Harbor breaking free, but he can't actually see him.

A better quarterback lofts a ball to Harbor. Vick throws it away before taking another hit.

Finally, the ill-fated third down. Again, the Cardinals are going to bring pressure. They leave nearly all the receivers in man coverage.

McCoy decides to block the rusher at bottom.

Celek tangled with McCoy's blitzer, so Rhodes is coming free on the other side.

Again, Vick has nowhere to go with the ball. He's sacked so quickly.

Other than anticipate Harbor getting free on second down, I see little to fault Vick on here. The Cardinals knew passing was the Eagles' only option, and they didn't feel threatened by any of the receivers. Everyone received basic man coverage except for DeSean Jackson on the final play. Where was Vick supposed to go with it? And certainly Rhodes coming that free off the edge wasn't his fault — if anyone's it was McCoy.

I said on Twitter yesterday that this game reminded me of one of those "McNabb without weapons" classics. This is what I mean. Without Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles had no receiver whom they could count on to beat man coverage and get open for Vick in the end zone. So you had three straight tries, and a horrible, predictable result.

Matchup: Eagles vs. Browns

Les Bowen had a fun piece today, looking at the last five Eagles season openers. It's interesting. There were three blowout victories: 2008, 2009, and 2011. Then there were two close losses (both to the Packers, incidentally) in 2007 and 2010.

It's hard to look at the Eagles matchup on Sunday and not see something closer to the former than the latter. The Browns appear to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their starting quarterback is a 28-year-old rookie. They have no passing weapons to speak of. Trent Richardson, their other first round pick, seems dangerous—but he's hobbled by an injury. The Browns defense is filled with castoffs, starting a familiar defensive backfield that includes Dimitri Patterson and Sheldon Brown. Mike Tanier was dead on accurate in his assessment of the Browns as the Eagles "minor-league affiliate".

I don't know how you call this game any other way but a victory for the Eagles. They're the nine-point favorite—on the road! I'm not smart enough to pick against all these factors. All I had to see was Damaris Johnson torching Sheldon Brown down the sidelines in the third preseason game. If that's what an undrafted free agent can do, I'm expecting a big day from the newly-minted man, DeSean Jackson. Hopefully this game will also give Michael Vick an opportunity to return to form against slightly lesser competition.

All that said, I'm also expecting a sloppy game. The Eagles weren't exactly firing on all cylinders throughout the preseason (which is fine). Keep an eye on the offensive line and linebackers this week. Problems there might not be enough to lose the game, but as with last year's opener against the Rams, the warning signs may be flashing for the rest of the season.

See you on Sunday!

Photo from Getty

Final 2012 Eagles 53-Man Roster Prediction

I have to admit, this exercise was a lot easier last year. When I was struggling with the final spots on my predicted roster this year, the problem wasn't finding guys to cut -- it was the opposite. There are half a dozen players that I couldn't care less about making the team. Yet some of them are going to survive cuts, if only by default. Knowing this, I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles shake up the bottom few jobs by bringing in players from the outside.

In any case, here goes nothing:

Quarterback: (3) Vick, Foles, Kafka. What Foles showed in the preseason was far beyond what anyone expected of him. By looking like a natural NFL quarterback with the poise and pocket presence to make all the throws, he most likely played himself into the backup job, or at least QBOTF consideration. Mike Kafka's ceiling looks more like AJ Feeley at this point, but that's not without value. While Trent Edwards is the walking definition of the replacement player you can get off the street, Kafka has been groomed in Philadelphia.

Running Back: (4) McCoy, Lewis, Brown, Havili. Bryce Brown won the third RB spot by showing his potential. He's still quite raw in most phases of the game, but that's fine in this spot. It's possible the Eagles could keep him inactive in the first few weeks, though, unless he's demonstrated that he can be an asset in special teams. Chris Polk is the odd man out, either to the practice squad or injured reserve. He never showed anything of note, so I wouldn't feel bad letting him go. Stanley Havili played his way into the fullback job against the Patriots, although the team could look at waiver wire castoffs as well.

Tight End: (2) Celek, Harbor. After fans experienced a brief wave of idealism about the Eagles keeping a third tight end, Brett Brackett never demonstrated anything that can't be had on the practice squad.

Wide Receiver: (6) Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Cooper, Johnson, McNutt. Last year Eagles kept six WRs, including an injured player. This year, that player is Riley Cooper. Damaris Johnson doesn't look as dependable as Chad Hall, but his explosive talent makes Hall expendable nonetheless. As for McNutt, he could be a practice squad candidate after a quiet preseason. But I'm not sure you can go into week one with only four healthy wide receivers, especially none of whom are taller than 6'0". Eventually, McNutt could be a replacement for Cooper and/or Avant. Might be worth stashing for now.

Offensive Line: (9) Herremans, Watkins, Kelce, Mathis, Dunlap, Bell, Kelly, Vandervelde, Vallos. This is one of those positions where a waiver wire pickup could be useful. There isn't a single backup that you would feel comfortable stepping in. With that in mind, I think Demetress Bell is only saved by the guaranteed nature of his contract. If they didn't have to pay him $3 million anyway, Bell probably wouldn't be worth keeping.

Defensive End: (5) Cole, Babin, Hunt, Graham, Curry. Having already been surpassed by Philip Hunt and at least matched by Brandon Graham, Darryl Tapp is in trouble. His salary is so much higher than the other backups, that it's just not justifiable. Somebody must be willing to send the Eagles a fifth or sixth round pick for him.

Defensive Tackle: (5) Jenkins, Cox, Landri, Thornton, Dixon. Consummate veteran Mike Patterson will miss at least the first six weeks, and possibly the entire season as his skull heals from brain surgery. With him out of the picture, you need to have enough guys in the middle that you can count on. Cedric Thornton might have shown more than Antonio Dixon this preseason, but the big-bodied Dixon has been a tremendous run stuffer in the past. He's on the bubble, and maybe even trade bait, but I think he sticks for now.

Linebacker: (6) Ryans, Kendricks, Jordan, Rolle, Chaney, Matthews. The main competition was always Akeem Jordan vs. Keenan Clayton, which was superceded this week when Jordan was (at least temporarily) promoted to starting WIL. There's actually a shot that Clayton sticks around as a seventh guy here, though. Keep an eye on the health of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews for the indicator on that. Bobby April could also ask for him as a replacement for Colt Anderson.

Cornerback: (6) Asomguha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marsh, Boykin, Hanson, Hughes. This spot is a matter of trust: how much are you willing to count on Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin? The Eagles have been trying to get rid of Joselio Hanson for two years now, but he's a cheap insurance policy until Boykin is ready. Hughes can play all the positions and special teams.

Safety: (4) Allen, Coleman, Atogwe, Jarrett. Jaiquawn Jarrett has six weeks (i.e. until Anderson returns) to prove that he's a better backup than OJ Atogwe.

Special Teams: (3) Henery, Henry, Dorenbos. Yesterday I would have listed Mat McBriar here. Shows how seriously you should take this whole endeavor.

Photo from Getty.

The New Normal

Zach Berman wrote a story yesterday about the efforts the Eagles took to evaluate Damaris Johnson's character:

A coach normally tasked with uncovering punt protections was tasked with determining why the NCAA's all-time leader in total yards would jeopardize his future, and whether that player was sincere in his remorse.

Johnson returned home to the New Orleans area, where April was also raised. April started to dig. He spoke to teachers and civic leaders, coaches and friends. He met Johnson's girlfriend and guidance counselor. And he spent time with Johnson, watching the 5-foot-8, 175-pound prospect catch passes from a machine and run across the Tulane practice field. Then, he looked Johnson in the eyes and heard his story.

Berman doesn't mention it, perhaps because he's only been on the beat for a short while, but (putting Michael Vick aside, a special case if there ever was one) the Eagles haven't historically been interested in players like this with serious character concerns. Even at the end of the draft and in free agency where the risk is lower, this indicates a clear change in strategy.

Moreover, this isn't the first time this year we've heard stories about how much the Eagles dove into the character of a draft prospect. First round pick Fletcher Cox predictably got this treatment from Jim Washburn. But the other time was with late-round flier Bryce Brown. So not only has the Eagles policy toward character issues changed, but they're willing to go into the weeds on figuring out if those issues are real even for fringe prospects. Good to know.

Same As It Ever Was

Deep breaths.

It was just the first preseason game. We can't expect greatness. We can't even reasonably expect quality. So why do I feel so disappointed after last night's first preseason game? I think theguyotc summed it up well in 140 characters:

The reason people are freaking out over a preseason game is because almost everything bad we've seen we also saw last year. #Eagles
— the guy (@theguyotc) August 10, 2012

Yep, that's it. It isn't the fact that we saw many issues with the team—it's that they were the exact same issues that killed playoff hopes in 2011. Watching the first team defense, I briefly wondered if I was seeing a greatest hits collection of last year's worst tackling attempts. Then there were the deja vu coverage breakdowns. That wasn't supposed to happen. Everyone knew what the problems were and they were getting fixed, right? Let's talk highlights and lowlights:

Brian Rolle looked worse than I've ever seen him. Really poor angles to the ball, completely whiffed tackles. Shouldn't he have improved this offseason, not regressed?
On the other hand, some positive signs from rookie Mychal Kendricks. He certainly wasn't perfect, but Kendricks was the only starting linebacker who I saw make a clean wrap-up tackle (twice).
The whole team is lucky that Michael Vick didn't break a finger or three when his hand slammed into Jason Kelce's helmet. Vick deserves more than to be judged on his first two short series, but initial impressions weren't great. He stepped into pressure multiple times when he had a mostly clean pocket. (Although Kelce shouldn't be getting pushed back either.)
While we're on the subject of injuries, I hold my breath every time LeSean McCoy touches the ball in the preseason.
Alex Henery's game-winning field goal was Akers-esque.
Mike Kafka threw a terrible interception on a screen pass. There isn't a quarterback competition, but Nick Foles looked more poised out there than Kafka.
The defensive line did stand out. The Steelers o-line was a revolving door all night and some of that may have been on them. Still, at least so far, Jim Washburn is delivering on his promise for an even better line—and that was without both starting ends. Philip Hunt and Brandon Graham looked like Pro-Bowlers for 20 minutes.
Also exciting: the return game. Brandon Boykin erased all memories of Dion Lewis with his first kick return, and Damaris Johnson showed DeSean-like quickness on punts. Brought tears to my eyes (not really).
Not faulting Nnamdi Asomugha for the touchdown, which looked like a Jaiquawn Jarrett special. However, Antonio Brown did beat him badly one-on-one for a quick slant route. Quickness isn't really Nnamdi's strength at this point.
Finally, Nate Allen will look like a Pro Bowler when he comes back and replaces Jarrett. This image is going to haunt my nightmares:

Throwing Cold Water on Dubious Roster Battles

Reuben Frank put out a list of the top ten roster battles heading into training camp. He hits on some of the biggest ones: Atogwe vs. Coleman, Rolle vs. Chaney, Hanson vs. Boykin. But he also lists a bunch of questionable ones:

Dion Lewis vs. Bryce Brown? I’m excited to see if Brown can make the transition to the NFL. He clearly has 5x the physical potential of Lewis. But I’m not really seeing the competition for backup running back. There’s just no way Brown is going to come in after sitting out nearly all of college and immediately pick up the complexity of the Eagles offense and the intricacies of pass blocking, other essential bits. Then again, don’t read this as an endorsement of Lewis, who seems like a poor backup to one of the best players on the roster.
Riley Cooper vs. Damaris Johnson? It’s unclear whether the Eagles will keep five or six wide receivers, but I don’t really see the big receivers competing against the smaller ones. Cooper and Marvin McNutt would serve similar roles on the roster, as would Johnson and Chad Hall. Those are the real one-on-one battles. Winners of each competition will be guaranteed a spot on the roster. After that, all they can do is hope the Eagles keep six guys.
Clay Harbor vs. Brett Brackett? With the Eagles using more two tight end sets, the question is really whether Brackett can play his way onto the roster — not whether he can beat out Harbor, a more experienced player and much better blocker.
Mike Kafka vs. Nick Foles? As with Lewis/Brown, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of Kafka. But Frank is the first person to suggest that Foles even has a shot to replace him in his rookie year.

Ahead of all of the above, I’d rate these battles: Demetress Bell vs. King Dunlap, Jaiquawn Jarrett vs. the Chopping Block, Derek Landri vs. Antonio Dixon vs. Cedric Thornton.

Small Fish in a Big Pond

Tommy Lawlor on UDFA Damaris Johnson:

Damaris is very quick and he has a good burst. He is able to gain initial separation. He just lacks the long speed you would ideally prefer. One thing I really like about him is that he plays fast. There is very little dancing and hesitation when Johnson gets the ball. That’s partly why he’s such a good KOR. He gets it and goes. That style of play actually makes him look faster than he is. One other thing about that…Johnson is able to make cuts at close to full speed. This is where his size is a benefit. He’s got good body control and is able to stop/start quickly and change directions on the move.

Damaris does look much faster on tape than his 40 time indicates — and he better be, considering his tiny stature. On a broader note, when was the last time the Eagles had so many potential contributors who were small in stature? I’m not sure anyone other than Barry Sanders did as much as Brian Westbrook at 5’8”, but this team has DeSean Jackson, Dion Lewis, and whoever emerges from the Johnson-Chad Hall roster battle. And that’s just on offense. Brian Rolle is one of the smallest linebackers in the NFL, and the slot corner competition is between two 5’9” players.