Breaking Down The Goal Line Debacle

Over on Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats site, you can see the live win probability for the Eagles-Cardinals game. Right at the end of the half, the Eagles were already down 17-0, and things weren't looking great. But with their final drive, they had a chance to tighten the score before halftime. A touchdown, narrowing the lead to 10, would have been positive — raising the team's win probability to 20 percent (and with this explosive offense, that might be a low estimate).

Of course, we know that didn't happen. Instead, the Eagles tried three times to stick the ball in the end zone, only to give up a 95-yard fumble return for a touchdown instead. That self-destructive 14 point swing cost the Eagles any chance they had of getting back into the game (probability: four percent). So what was the problem?

Michael Vick deserves some of the blame. If you replace him with Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees, the Eagles probably score. But that's unfair. The play calling also wasn't perfect, but that wasn't the main issue either. The real culprit was the Eagles lack of red zone weapons. With only dwindling seconds to work with and no timeouts, the offense had to take their most effective option — the run — off the table. Everyone knew Vick had to throw, and the Eagles couldn't out-execute the Cardinals in the face of that knowledge.

Let me show you what I mean. Below is the first down play. Even though running is impossible, they line-up in the I-Formation to fake it. Vick's three receiving options are fullback Stanley Havili and two tiny wide receivers — Damaris Johnson and DeSean Jackson. Not exactly murderer's row.

Here's what Vick sees when he first drops back. Not much there.

With DeSean covered, it's Havili or Johnson.

Havili looks open, but he's not in the end zone. If he gets tackled outside, you lose your shot. Inside, Johnson has broken free of his man, but there are multiple defenders in between him and Vick. Does he want to risk that pass?

Vick almost throws to Johnson, pump-fakes instead.

Again, he had two options, but there were defenders in the way (and in his face). A perfect throw gets this done, but Vick is hesitant — and with two more chances, why risk it?

The defender in red probably would have gotten any pass to Johnson. Vick throws it away.

Alright, let's move on to second down. You're going to see many of the same problems.

Here's the pre-snap alignment. Jason Avant and Clay Harbor at the top. DeSean below.

Everybody is covered man-to-man, pressure coming up the middle.

Vick's best option is Harbor breaking free, but he can't actually see him.

A better quarterback lofts a ball to Harbor. Vick throws it away before taking another hit.

Finally, the ill-fated third down. Again, the Cardinals are going to bring pressure. They leave nearly all the receivers in man coverage.

McCoy decides to block the rusher at bottom.

Celek tangled with McCoy's blitzer, so Rhodes is coming free on the other side.

Again, Vick has nowhere to go with the ball. He's sacked so quickly.

Other than anticipate Harbor getting free on second down, I see little to fault Vick on here. The Cardinals knew passing was the Eagles' only option, and they didn't feel threatened by any of the receivers. Everyone received basic man coverage except for DeSean Jackson on the final play. Where was Vick supposed to go with it? And certainly Rhodes coming that free off the edge wasn't his fault — if anyone's it was McCoy.

I said on Twitter yesterday that this game reminded me of one of those "McNabb without weapons" classics. This is what I mean. Without Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles had no receiver whom they could count on to beat man coverage and get open for Vick in the end zone. So you had three straight tries, and a horrible, predictable result.

Breaking Down the Eagles First Drive

I finally got a chance to really work with the All-22 coaches tape everyone's been clamoring about, and many folks have put to great use. I charted the Eagles first two drives of the Baltimore game, drawing up the routes and schemes the Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg used to mostly great effect. Aside from the final play, I skipped the run downs. See it all below.

1. First play of the game, the Eagles keep seven players in to block and only run three pass routes. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (top) each go deep, but they're more distractions than anything. The Ravens surely focused all week on preventing the big play, and Reid wants to exploit that right away. The four defensive backs marked with yellow Xs are all focused on keeping Maclin and Jackson from doing anything. That clears out space for Brent Celek to run a crossing route across the middle. With the weakside linebacker blitzing, the Ravens have only the MIKE to cover the middle of the field. Eyes in the backfield, presumably in case Michael Vick scrambles, he loses track of Celek. Easy pitch and catch for the first down.

2. Similar play in effect. Macline clears out two players with a deep route, and Jason Avant, who motions pre-snap, attracts two linebackers to him in the flat. The Ravens, stuck in zone coverage, strand two defensive backs on the other side of the field. Jackson, who lines up in the slot, gets a mismatch on a linebacker. Another easy first down completion.

3. Run to LeSean McCoy. 2 yard gain.

4. Bubble screen to DeSean. I think they're trying to take advantage of the deep safety (20+ yards away) and what they think is a blitzing slot corner (marked in blue). When he doesn't blitz, DeSean has nowhere to go.

5. Ravens threaten blitz here and put eight guys in the box, but they only rush three and drop rest back into coverage. Vick rifles ball to Avant, who sits down in hole in the zone. First down. If he needed, McCoy was available as a checkdown after he wasn't needed to block.

6. Eagles run a play action fake to the right which draws linebackers (red Xs) to right. Celek scrapes across and out the other side, which is open after Maclin runs decoy deep route (again). Beats linebackers, but Ed Reed (blue) diagnoses the play extraordinarily quickly and keeps Celek to 5 yard gain.

7. Run to Damaris Johnson. First down.

8. Run to Stanley Havili. 1 yard.

9. Eagles go five wide with two tight ends. Vick first looks left to Maclin and Avant, but both are covered. He then turns to Celek in middle, but help from that dropping linebacker means he's not open either. Vick doesn't have time to look to his right for Clay Harbor or Jackson, as he's immediately flushed from the pocket after King Dunlap can't sustain his block. Should have run out of bounds or thrown it away, but Vick was picked when he tried to force it to Harbor.

1. Back after the Trent Cole strip-sack: run to LeSean McCoy, no gain.

2. Run to McCoy, big gain. Dunlap called for holding.

3. Run to McCoy, no gain. Ray Lewis reads it.

4. At the bottom, Desean a runs deep post, while Celek runs an out route right at the safety. With Harbor's short route in the flat drawing two defenders, both have single coverage. 19 yards to Celek.

5. 4th and 1 run to McCoy.

6. 1st down run to Brown.

7. Eagles bring Avant in motion designed to get Jackson on-one-one in the slot against a safety or linebacker. Instead, the slot corner follows Avant over, blankets Jackson. Ravens bring eight on blitz, get to Vick. Roughing the passer called, though.

8. Here's the McCoy TD run. It's a really odd blocking scheme. On the left, Dunlap, Harbor, and Havili block as if it's a stretch to that side. On the right, everyone but extra tackle Demetress Bell blocks in the opposite direction. That leaves two Ravens defenders (red) in the middle where the hole should be. Evan Mathis lets BOTH go to engage the second level. How do the Eagles plan to block them? For the lineman on the left, they simply freeze him with Havili's motion to the left. The other one breaks through the line when Bell doesn't get there in time. Luckily, he's more focused on putting a hit on Vick than stopping McCoy.

Eagles 2012 Dress Rehearsal: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

It's easy to make too much of a preseason game, even one that everyone acknowledges is the last real dress rehearsal before the regular season gets underway. The Eagles are still working out the kinks, and sometimes a poor practice can lead to a fabulous opening night.

At least, that's what everyone tells me. At the risk of being that insane moron who draws too many conclusions from a glorified scrimmage, let me highlight the main things that stuck out last night:

The Good

Mychal Kendricks is quickly on his way to becoming the best linebacker on the team. In striking contrast to Casey Matthews's first games in the spotlight a year ago, Kendricks doesn't give off any indication that the moment is too big for him. He's certainly not a Pro Bowler yet (although that didn't stop me from making such wild, fanciful leaps on Twitter), as evidenced by his subpar coverage in the red zone that gave up a touchdown. But Kendricks proved that he has the whole package. Seeing him diagnose a screen play, fight off a blocker, and make the tackle warms my heart.
Philip Hunt continues to look like, at worst, the Eagles third-best defensive end. Hunt showed solid pass rush potential last year in limited snaps, but his added bulk makes him look like a formidable, versatile starter.
Continuing with the defense, I would be remiss not to point out what an upgrade Nate Allen is over Jaiquawn Jarrett. Lots more to prove for Allen going forward, but his run support against the Patriots was especially noteworthy.
What's that you say? You've only skimmed the last few paragraphs looking for the name Nick Foles? Now registering on Tim McManus's scale of 1-to-Tebow, the rookie has surpassed all expectations. I was particularly skeptical on draft day, but in two games Foles has looked better than any Eagles backup since Kevin Kolb's two starts in 2009. I'm no quarterback guru, but one of the things that stands out about Foles is his complete lack of fear (something that seems to be dooming Kolb in Arizona). His pocket awareness, perhaps aided by his 6'6" frame, is fantastic, which enables him to move around fluidly and deliver crisp passes into tight spots. If he can keep this up, there's no question he's a better option than Mike Kafka.
The Eagles red zone offense was great. Part of that was Foles, but other players stepped up as well. Stanley Havili made his case for the fullback job, notching consecutive good plays -- a fullback trap to get to the goal line and a lead block to put LeSean McCoy in. Clay Harbor made a fantastic grab in the corner of the end zone. Even DeSean Jackson showed up, when the Eagles motioned McCoy out of the backfield and got Jackson one-on-one against a linebacker.

The Bad

Unfortunately, all the good things I mentioned above happened against the Patriots backups. Bummer.
On Michael Vick's injury, all I can do is quote DeSean's immortal words: "Aw man, not again."
Ironically, new starter King Dunlap was the most impressive offensive lineman last night. Evan Mathis allowed the pressure on the play where Michael Vick was injured. Todd Herremans had a similarly poor showing. And Danny Watkins looked totally incapable of blocking anyone. Let's not even mention Demetress Bell and his struggles against fourth-stringers.
Penalties, a problem in their own right, led to this shouting match between Andy Reid and Cullen Jenkins. Way to show some fire and all that, but this isn't really a good sign.

The Ugly

Josh McDaniels, with only second and third-stringers at his disposal, ran circles around Juan Castillo, especially on third down. That's frightening.

Photo from Getty.

Throwing Cold Water on Dubious Roster Battles

Reuben Frank put out a list of the top ten roster battles heading into training camp. He hits on some of the biggest ones: Atogwe vs. Coleman, Rolle vs. Chaney, Hanson vs. Boykin. But he also lists a bunch of questionable ones:

Dion Lewis vs. Bryce Brown? I’m excited to see if Brown can make the transition to the NFL. He clearly has 5x the physical potential of Lewis. But I’m not really seeing the competition for backup running back. There’s just no way Brown is going to come in after sitting out nearly all of college and immediately pick up the complexity of the Eagles offense and the intricacies of pass blocking, other essential bits. Then again, don’t read this as an endorsement of Lewis, who seems like a poor backup to one of the best players on the roster.
Riley Cooper vs. Damaris Johnson? It’s unclear whether the Eagles will keep five or six wide receivers, but I don’t really see the big receivers competing against the smaller ones. Cooper and Marvin McNutt would serve similar roles on the roster, as would Johnson and Chad Hall. Those are the real one-on-one battles. Winners of each competition will be guaranteed a spot on the roster. After that, all they can do is hope the Eagles keep six guys.
Clay Harbor vs. Brett Brackett? With the Eagles using more two tight end sets, the question is really whether Brackett can play his way onto the roster — not whether he can beat out Harbor, a more experienced player and much better blocker.
Mike Kafka vs. Nick Foles? As with Lewis/Brown, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of Kafka. But Frank is the first person to suggest that Foles even has a shot to replace him in his rookie year.

Ahead of all of the above, I’d rate these battles: Demetress Bell vs. King Dunlap, Jaiquawn Jarrett vs. the Chopping Block, Derek Landri vs. Antonio Dixon vs. Cedric Thornton.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Tight End

Brent Celek

What the Eagles did: Basically, nothing.

Some people are obsessed with the rise of the two tight end formation (cough Domo cough). I’m not, but it’s become a mini-trend around the league, and the Eagles are no exception. In 2011, the Eagles backup tight end was on the field more than twice as much as their fullback.

So, logically, one might expect that the team would pursue some legitimate options to keep a third tight end, or perhaps even someone who could challenge Clay Harbor’s second-string role. But that didn’t happen. Instead, we have the same two tight ends we’ve seen the last two seasons, plus a pair of undrafted free agents — one from this year and one from last year.

It’s not like the two guys they added don’t have some raw athleticism and talent. 6’5”, 246 lb. Brett Brackett was a solid player at Penn State before going undrafted to Miami in 2011. Chase Ford, whom the Eagles signed after the draft ended this year, did next to nothing in two years at Miami after transferring from junior college, but he’s even taller: 6’6”, 245 lbs.

Neither player has the experience needed to serve as a backup in the NFL at this point, meaning their both probably competing for a practice squad spot.

What I would have done: It would be nice to see that the Eagles (a) had a backup plan in case either Harbor or Brent Celek injured themselves and (b) had some competition for Harbor’s job, a backup role that actually requires a good deal of playing time. But it was not to be.

Way-too-early prediction: Celek had a great rebound year in 2011. After a disastrous 57.5 percent catch rate in 2010, he jumped back to 66 percent — and had the highest yards after the catch per reception (8 yards) in the NFL. He’s no Gronkowski, but at 27 he still has more than a few years of above-average play ahead of him. Hopefully he can continue to improve and become more consistent going forward.

As to Harbor, I’m surprised the Eagles seem so confident in his abilities that they haven’t bothered to bring in competition. His play has been fine for a backup, and he’s improved as a blocker, but I haven’t seen anything that made me think he’s more than that. Perhaps the coaches know more than I do, and there’s actually reason to suggest that he’ll have a breakout season.

That would certainly make Domo happy.

Photo from Getty.

Watch and Judge All 24 Sacks of Michael Vick

Jimmy Kempski does an amazing job in this post, culling the video for all sacks Michael Vick took in 2011. More than anything, the Eagles quarterback doesn’t come out looking too good. Many of the sacks are poor decisions by Vick, and a number of the others look suspiciously like poor blitz recognition and protection adjustments at the line of scrimmage.

The one thing that is worth keeping in mind is these are only 24 plays, and by definition are likely to show the worst mistakes. There isn’t a companion video that shows how many times Vick escaped pressure in his face and turned it into a positive gain.

I’m also not sure I follow Jimmy’s logic at the end, where he notes poor right tackle play from Winston Justice in 2010 as a reason to keep Todd Herremans on that side. But all in all, really informative and interesting.

The Eagles Future at Fullback

Only five teams in the NFL gave fewer snaps to their fullbacks in 2011 than the Eagles. Owen Schmitt had almost no impact on the offense, registering only 173 snaps — almost half the snaps of fourth/fifth wide receiver Riley Cooper. That’s a sharp decline from 2010, when Schmitt took over for Leonard Weaver after the first game and played in 352 snaps.

Moreover, Schmitt’s contribution on the field was limited. He carried the ball four times, ran passing routes 73 times, and pass blocked 25 times — all tasks that could have been better performed by other players. Even his 71 run blocking attempts, just over 4 per game, were at best at replacement level.

Overall, Schmitt is entirely expendable. Either through free agency or the draft, it wouldn’t be difficult to upgrade the fullback position.

However, the Eagles have long been uninterested in investing even moderate resources at fullback. Leonard Weaver was an exception, but he was also a great change-of-pace running threat. Without him, the Andy Reid has reverted back to ignoring the position. And even more so this year, as he often utilized two tight end formations with Clay Harbor instead of employing Schmitt.

The question is what to do going forward. I have no interest in retaining Schmitt or another player of his caliber. It’s a wasted roster spot that provides special teams snaps and poor offensive return.

Instead, I’d like to see the Eagles turn their diminished use of the fullback spot into an asset, by converting the position into something worthwile. How so? I can think of two ways.

The first would be to find a new version of Weaver, the RB-FB hybrid. Dion Lewis looked like he may be capable of holding down LeSean McCoy’s back up spot next year. However, his running style isn’t exactly bruising. If the Eagles signed someone like the Chiefs Le’Ron McClain, he could fill that dual role of FB-RB, and potentially free up a roster spot somewhere else. Stanley Havili — anyone remember him? — had a redshirt year on the Eagles practice squad. A draft option (taken as the most speculative of recommendations) might be Baylor RB Terrance Ganaway, who happens to be the Jeremiah Trotter’s nephew.

The second option would be to look for a more versatile H-Back. Harbor is already filling this hybrid role somewhat for the Eagles, although he’s more likely to line up as a wide receiver than as a fullback. With the offense going to more and more two tight end sets, it would be nice to keep a third guy on the roster. Having him do double duty as a part-time fullback could be a great way to get value out of the roster spot. National Football Post’s Wes Bunting projects Evan Rodriguez, tight end for Temple, as a late-round H-Back option.

The point is that keeping things as they are wastes a roster spot on a replacement-level player who is outclassed at basically every function he’s asked to perform. Even Schmitt’s role in the run game is being eclipsed. Why not try something new?

Photo from Getty.

Rewind: Notes on the Eagles-Cowboys Game

Michael Vick Eagles Cowboys Shotgun

One of the unheralded stories of 2011 is the regression of Michael Vick. After borrowing Superman’s cape last season, Vick returned to mere mortal status once again. Just as a simple measurement, in 2010 he had quarterback passer rating above 90 in 10 out of his 12 games. This year, he’s only had 5 out of 12.

However, things seem to be picking back up for Vick as he and the coaches are potentially finding some answers for him. He’s had back-to-back 100+ QB rating games for the first time this season over the last two weeks.

I charted all of Vick’s passes this week and noticed that he’s hardly ever doing three step drops from under center anymore. In fact, I counted only two of those, and both went for incompletions.

The majority of pass calls (20 of 36) involved Vick in shotgun, and half of those added five step drops on top of the pre-snap depth. Whether his height factors in to this I can’t say, but he’s clearly more comfortable and effective in shotgun, and generally as far back from the line of scrimmage as possible. The added depth gives him more time to find deep receivers and also more space to scramble if necessary.

* * *

Danny Watkins is awful. I want to really emphasize this point. After watching him fairly closely the whole game, it’s clear that he didn’t deserve to be on the field.

At least half a dozen times, Watkins single-handedly let his defender get by him (often instantaneously) to get pressure on Vick or a backfield tackle on LeSean McCoy. It was Kyle DeVan, Stacey Andrews, Winston Justice-against-the-Giants bad.

Tommy Lawlor wrote of Watkins, “Solid game. Got driven back in pass pro a time or two, but did stick with the blocks.”

I wish that were the case. In reality, Watkins needs to make a big leap in the offseason to be even an average NFL starter.

* * *

Speaking of below replacement level starters, Jamar Chaney was almost as bad.

If you run straight up the middle and fail to block the middle linebacker against 31 teams in the NFL, it must be a tackle for a loss more often than not. Against the Eagles, it’s a nine yard gain. I’m not exaggerating when I say that the run defense frequently looks like it only has 10 players out there.

Chaney demonstrates no ability to get off blocks. But more importantly, even when unblocked he’s indecisive and slow. You can tell that he’s athletic enough to run with most tight ends, but in run defense he never charges the line. At best he’s a speed bump 3 yards into the run, but most of the time he doesn’t even provide that.

* * *

Just to prove I’m not always negative, let me say some good things about Casey Matthews. He looked, frankly, great this week. Speedy, instinctive, good in space, and quick to take on tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. I’d actually like to see him get some of Chaney’s snaps in the base defense next week.
Clay Harbor was instrumental as a blocker on the back-to-back end-arounds to DeSean Jackson. Set the edge with a hard block on Sean Lee the first time, then faked a block on Ware, shouldered Lee, and got up to the third level on Jackson’s second try. That said, there’s no reason Harbor should be one-on-one with DeMarcus Ware in pass protection. That led to a sack.
Brent Celek, on the other hand, continues to show me nothing but poor run blocking. But every week they add another brilliant tight end screen to the playbook, and he’s great at that.
Brandon Hughes got some significant looks as the dime corner, especially when Nnamdi Asomugha came inside to cover Jason Witten. Hughes was beaten once each by Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, two good receivers, both times he was targeted.

Photo from Getty.