Eagles-Jaguars Preseason Thoughts: How To Combat The Scrape-Exchange

Is it too late to talk about the Eagles' third preseason game? Hope not, because that's what I'm about to do.

When we last talked, I was remarking about how bad Trent Cole looks in his new role. Shocker: he's still bad. In the few nickel snaps that he put his hand in the ground and rushed the passer, Cole got some good pressure (as he always has). But putting him in space does no one any good in coverage and it has so far hindered his naturally good run defense. Especially bad: any play that has him line up over the slot receiver and blitz. First, it's not fooling anyone. Second, he's too far away from the quarterback to do any damage.
Luckily, the rest of the linebacking core is shaping up well so far. DeMeco Ryans has been solid, if unspectacular. Mychal Kendricks was a force all over the field against the Jagurs, and was often brought on blitzes up the middle (with Cole dropping back though). On the other side, Connor Barwin continues to impress. His interception was the most athletic feat we've seen an awhile at linebacker. Interesting note: on that play, the Eagles kept their base defense in on Jacksonville's 2nd and 19, against 4 WRs and 1 TE. Odd choice.
I am a paying member of the Patrick Chung fan club. He's not a star, but watching him come up and make solid tackles is a revelation.
I didn't think Michael Vick was as horrible as the post-game narrative suggested. He held on to the ball too long a few times and threw one bad pick. But Vick also made some laser completions and showed ample mobility. He was never going to be as perfect as he had shown through the first two contests. Plus, the offensive line wasn't exactly in peak form early.
In truth, the offense Chip Kelly had Vick run seldom resembled that of the previous games. There was more under-center snaps and down-the-field passing routes than we were shown before. As some remarked, it looked at times more like an Andy Reid offense than one run by Kelly.
Sheil Kapadia has a good breakdown of what looks like the Jaguars using the scrape-exchange to combat the zone read. Here's what it looks like below. As in their typical zone read play, the Eagles let the defensive end go unblocked, with Lane Johnson crashing down on the guard, and Todd Herremans releasing to the second level. However, in the scrape-exchange, the defensive end is trained to immediately come down the line at the running back, forcing the QB keeper. The linebacker Herremans must reach arcs around the outside instead (away from the would-be block) and gets in Vick's face right away:

It worked great in the above play, but not only is the scrape hard to pull off, it's not all that difficult to combat either. The first way is simply for Vick to get better at running the QB keeper and executing the second option. On this play he ran vertically too quickly instead of laterally, negating any chance to throw the quick bubble screen to DeSean Jackson.
The second way is even easier: just don't run the zone read. Think about what happens in the above play if the Jaguars defenders get too comfortable executing the scrape, only to have the Eagles block normally. If Johnson and Herremans take on their defenders straight up and the linebacker comes around the edge instead of up the middle, there's going to be a huge hole for the running back. The offense can use further deception with an H-back in the backfield. That player come across the formation to lead blocker with multiple choices about who to attack. The below image comes from Chris Brown's (always excellent) breakdown of this technique:

Want another option? How about stop reading the defensive end? By mixing up the read, you can keep defenders unsure of their responsibility. Last time we talked about a play where the Eagles read a defensive tackle. Here's a similar play in which Vick reads the linebacker(s):

And here's even more variation. This time the Eagles read the end, but if Vick keeps it he's running behind a pulling guard in Evan Mathis. Bryce Brown picks up 11 yards to the left on this run after the zone read freezes the unblocked defender, but I wonder how many yards Vick would have gotten had he pulled it down himself to the right:

By the way, Jamar Chaney did seemingly everything possible to try to get cut over the last couple of years. What finally did him in? Not being able to block a punter on special teams. Ouch.
And what is the Toddfather doing below cavorting with the enemy, aka Jason Baboon?

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Eagles-Patriots Preseason Thoughts: This Offense Is Going To Be Fun

I'm not fretting about Fletcher Cox. As Derek Sarley laid out quite plainly, the problem on those first few run plays was much more about spacing in the new 3-4 defensive lineup. The bigger problem was Trent Cole, who looked totally out of place as a stand-up linebacker. Maybe he'll get better, but I wouldn't count on it. The sample size wasn't large, but I thought Brandon Graham looked a lot more comfortable out there.
In nickel packages the Eagles tended to switch to a four-down linemen look, and Cole looked like his normal self there. Back in April I suggested that the coaches keep Cole as a down rusher -- even consider starting him at 3-4 defensive end. That latter option is probably off the table now that Cole has slimmed down for his OLB role, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him has a dedicated pass rush specialist in exclusive four-linemen looks before long.
As a broader point, the 3-4 defensive transition is going to be rough. Not only do some of the players not fit into their defined roles, but the spacing issues will probably continue. Good offensive coaches will exploit this inexperienced front, and Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans are going to get mauled at the second level.

On the touchdown pass, Sheil Kapadia says: "Vick said [DeSean] went deep because the Patriots had a single high safety." Jackson's ability to stretch coverage is even more necessary now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year. If can't keep safeties honest, the run game and short passes become difficult.
Zach Ertz looks like he needs some serious work. He's not a speedy receiver (only 4.68 second 40 yard dash) and he looks totally lost blocking. Here Ertz is at the top of the formation letting Jerod Mayo (admittedly a good linebacker) get by him without so much as slowing him down. While the offensive line is getting a good push up the middle, Mayo comes in off the edge unblocked and makes the tackle:

Here's a cool play: a zone-read design where the quarterback is looking at the defensive tackle instead of the end. It's the Eagles' fourth play from scrimmage, with Vick deciding whether to hand off to Chris Polk or keep it himself. The typical zone-read we've seen in the NFL so far (and we also saw from the Eagles on Friday night) involves letting the defensive end come upfield unblocked. If he goes for the QB, you hand it off. If he goes for the RB, the QB keeps it. Same idea here, but Vick is reading Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle. If he had sprinted to his left to get Polk, Vick would have had a huge hole up the middle. Because he stayed in his lane, Polk gets the hand off and has two double teams to run behind on the right (click to embiggen):

Just as I was drawing this play up, Chris Brown posted an extensive review of Chip's play calling, including this one (with a gif). You should definitely check that out.
Brown talks about "packaged plays" as well, and Sheil has a glorious medley of screen caps on those run-pass options.
However, my favorite play of the night was the one below. What looked like a zone-read play to the left was really a play-action rollout to the backside. Vick has a clear run-pass option on this play and it's killer for the defense. This is something Foles doesn't present -- a dangerous running threat out of the backfield. The Patriots defenders who weren't sucked in by the play action aren't sure whether to converge on Vick or cover their receivers, so neither happens. Easy 19-yard completion to Riley Cooper:

Lane Johnson looked athletic and powerful. Sheil had good shots of him pancaking defenders and getting to the second level: here and here.
Fellow Eagles Almanac scribe Dan Klausner is trying to convince me that Chris Polk is ready for the big time. I'm open to the idea, but haven't seen it yet. Certainly he is the better pass blocker (see Sheil's screencaps here), but Bryce Brown is a much more dangerous weapon. Watching him explode through holes or grab passes out of the backfield, it's obvious that Brown's someone you want to have the ball. Perhaps it's a silly hypothetical, but I can't shake the feeling that Brown would have exploded through that hole for a first down on the Wilfork zone-read.
Nick Foles moved the ball very efficiently in the Eagles' first real up tempo test. See more from Jimmy Kempski.

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What We Learned In Week 15

16 for 33, 182 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. That's supposed to make me excited about Nick Foles?

Last week, I described the conditions under which we should evaluate (and remain skeptical of) Foles' chance to be the franchise quarterback. Chief among them was, "Can he keep up his run of success through the end of the season?" Foles had performed well in two games against poor coverage teams. When he finally got up against a solid defense against Cincinnati, he faltered. One of his biggest problems is inaccuracy on deep balls. Maybe we were spoiled by Michael Vick, but if Foles can't lead DeSean or Maclin deep, that puts a serious dent in any campaign to make him the permanent starter.

Other quick hits:

Just a comedy of offensive errors against the Bengals. I know that at this point the Eagles are basically fielding a preseason squad, but five turnovers is still crazy high. I almost can't believe the Eagles were leading going into halftime.
Brandon Graham! I wondered whether Graham's sky-high production would continue when he got more time in the starting lineup. So far, so good. His development this season has been one of the few bright spots. Sheil Kapadia compared Graham's year with Jason Pierre-Paul's on Saturday.
Speaking of Kapadia and the defensive line, he also had a great All-22 look at the defensive line. Still some Wide Nine mixed in, but the Eagles used much more varied blitz looks and a variety of stunts to get players coming free at Andy Dalton.
The Eagles sack leaders: Graham, Fletcher Cox, and Jason Babin are tied at 5.5. Who would have thought?
I'm not sure what to make of Mychal Kendricks' move from strongside to weakside linebacker. On one hand, that's the position he was expected to play coming out of college, where his speed and athleticism could be used to blitz and make plays. But Kendricks, despite learning on the job, has done admirably against tight ends. His physical gifts allow him to match up with some of the best in the game (and there are more and more of those). One issue may have been his lack of production in the run game. It's more difficult to stop the run when you have to go through the strongside -- and Kendricks was toward the bottom in the league in both tackle and stop rate.
Bryce Brown also seems to have come back down to Earth a little bit. Still, we've seen some serious potential. If he can make a reliability-based leap in his second season, there's plenty to like.

Photo from Getty.

Silver Linings Playbook?

The Eagles lost, again. They blew coverages, again. They gave up turnovers, again. They fired a coach, again. And yet, Sunday night could have been much worse: the Eagles could have won.

Exactly a year ago, this team was in a similar place. At 4-8, their future was bleak. We started looking toward 2013, anticipating the changes in the offseason. But it wasn't to be. The Eagles rattled of four "fool's gold" wins to end the season at 8-8. They didn't fire Andy Reid, or get started on the much-needed reboot. They didn't have a shot at getting a once-in-a-decade talent like Robert Griffin III.

I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, and these losses are painful. But let me tell you, it's better this way. There's nothing to be gained by winning any more, only by losing.

The important thing is evaluating players for 2013 and beyond. And to that end, we're learning a lot:

Nick Foles had by far his best game so far. He made a few questionable throws, but was light years better than last week, when it looked like he desperately wanted to give the ball away. Foles made some tough, accurate throws (especially to Riley Cooper in the end zone) and withstood pressure in his face a few times. These are the types of performances he's going to need to have if he wants to audition for the starting job in 2013.
Speaking of Riley Cooper, he seems to be everywhere these days. A safety blanket for Foles, Cooper's size makes him a real asset in the end zone. He's also a willing and able blocker (although asking him to match up with DeMarcus Ware is probably too much).
The Bryce Brown show continued. In two weeks as the starter, Brown has totaled 347 rushing yards. His size, power, and vision are incredible. If you calculate his "Speed Score", he ranks either near the top of all running backs drafted in 2012 or near the top of all running backs, period (depending on whether you use official pro day 40 time of 4.48 or some reports of 4.37). Sure, there's a major fumbling issue. But that's not something to worry about now. Brown is already producing at a level we never could have imagined. Figure out the details in the offseason.
Another positive development, I think, is the Eagles offensive line. King Dunlap was overmatched on the left side, which surprised exactly no one. But the Jake Scott signing has paid off immensely, as has Dennis Kelly getting more reps at his natural position of right tackle. The communication issues on that side of the line seemed to be almost entirely eliminated this week, and the duo actually coordinated some brutally effective blocks to spring Brown free.
Of course, what does that say about Danny Watkins? Nothing good, I'm afraid.
In other news, the defense is still awful. I don't understand how promoting Todd Bowles, whose coverage schemes were one of the only things working early in the season, could have backfired this spectacularly. It's stunning. You know it's bad when we're apologizing to Juan Castillo.
Also, RIP wide nine. We won't miss you much. Except for Brandon Graham 2.0. You can stay.

Photo from Getty.

Quick Hit Thoughts On The Bryce Brown Show

Bryce Brown is kind of a beast. 19 rushes for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns? That's impressive. Fumbles aside, he looks like a real keeper. At a ripped 225 lbs and having run a 4.37 forty yard dash at his pro day, Brown is an amazing athlete who looked the part of a stud NFL back when he got the chance to carry the load. This is why you draft players with upside in the later rounds, not limited effort guys like Kurt Coleman and Brian Rolle.

Speaking of Kurt Coleman, he was involved in at least one of two horrific coverage breakdowns that gifted Carolina touchdowns. Jon Gruden was in shock up in the booth as the Panthers waltzed into the endzone untouched. Here's what Dan Jeremiah, former scout with the Eagles from 2010-2012 said on Twitter:

Kurt Coleman is a good 4th safety. He should be covering kicks and playing in emergency situations. He's not starter quality.

What happened to Todd Bowles? Even with players like Coleman, this defense shouldn't have gotten worse after the firing of Juan Castillo, right?

Nick Foles is probably not the guy. Everyone hoped that the Eagles had lucked into their future starter when Foles lit up the preseason. But he's been exposed right now as a guy that doesn't look at all ready to play in the NFL. (Anyone know where Mike Kafka is?) Foles was lucky he didn't get picked off two or three times during that game. And even when he completed passes, he nearly got his receivers killed by leading them into nasty hits.

Vinny Curry: He's alive!

Alex Henery is a stud? With three more field goals on Monday night, Henery has hit 19 in a row, breaking the franchise record he previously held with David Akers. Of course, he still hasn't attempted a kick longer than 49 yards this year.

Oh, and the Eagles lost. That puts them in line for the fifth overall pick. Somebody put on some limbo music. How low can you go?

Photo from Getty

Same Old Eagles? Not So Fast

The prevailing reaction to Sunday's season opener was, "Here we go again." The Eagles won, despite showing shockingly bad tendencies across the field. Anyone who was optimistic all offseason that the problems of 2011 were behind us was sorely mistaken.

But the more I think about the game, the more I think that narrative rings false. In fact, the team we saw on Sunday looked markedly different than last year's version — for better and worse. This version looked like a Bizarro Eagles — comically exaggerated in some ways and a complete 180 turn in others. All told, I may actually be more optimistic today that I was before Sunday.

Let's start, as one should, with Michael Vick. The conventional wisdom was that whatever was wrong with Vick in 2011 could be fixed in a few months of one-on-one tutelage with Marty Mornhinweg. I was never so sure. To me, Vick looked like a flawed quarterback last year. I use the word flawed purposely. He certainly wasn't the elite player we glimpsed in 2010, a Superman quarterback. But for 2011 Football Outsiders ranked him 12th in passing DVOA, the second-best mark in his career — by far — and just a tick below his 2010 performance. Other measures were even more positive: lowest sack rate in his career and highest yards per rush since 2006, despite staying in the pocket more than ever.

Vick's biggest problems in 2011 were accuracy and turnovers, both of which reverted back toward his career averages. That alone, though, doesn't make Vick a bad quarterback — just flawed. And they are flaws Vick is unlikely to snap out of at age 32. But the Vick we saw against the Browns wasn't merely flawed, he was broken. He posted a shocking single-game -50.7% DVOA, third-worst in the NFL, in front of only Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (-106.4% LOL). He threw four interceptions, tying a career-worst. His quarterback rating was 51.0, worse than in all but one game he's played in the last two years.

Derek gave you the pessimistic scenario for Vick's problems — that Andy Reid and company have actually made him worse by tinkering. There is truth there with regard to Vick's regression in 2011. He was at his best when he was playing off the cuff, taking the world by storm in 2010. But in terms of Sunday, we may have watched something akin to a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Vick has permanently fallen back to the realm of overmatched rookies, unable to see linebackers dropping back into coverage. You can't wave away his performance with a "rusty" tag, but what you saw is basically worst case scenario Vick. I would be surprised if he is still be playing at that level next week, let alone six weeks from now.

That is, assuming the offensive line gets fixed. Bizarro Eagles exaggerated Vick's flaws — as well as the line's problems. King Dunlap is a poor substitute for Jason Peters, but he wasn't the (main) issue. There were simply too many communications breakdowns. Sheil Kapadia ran through every hit Vick took, and by my quick examination, eight of those involved either a completely unblocked rusher or one that was handed off improperly. Considering four out of the five linemen played together last year, that shouldn't happen. Nor do I expect it to going forward. Molding the line into a coherent unit is what Howard Mudd gets paid the big bucks to do — and it's an easier fix than having to replace overmatched players.

Clearly the play-calling was also an issue. Why did the Eagles keep four running backs if they aren't going to use them? Take some pressure off of Vick by running more of the offense through LeSean McCoy. And if you're worried about McCoy breaking down, give some carries to Bryce Brown (or Dion Lewis or Chris Polk). Last year, right after the Eagles fourth preseason loss, I advocated unleashing McCoy. Coincidentally, that was right after Vick played in a similarly crappy manner to last Sunday (2 TDs, 4 INTS, 315 yards passing). Marty Mornhinweg listened (or at least had the same thought), and proceeded to call Shady's number for 58 rushes over the next two games. He didn't disappoint — racking up 311 yards and three scores. Mornhinweg and Reid aren't complete idiots. They know last week's pass-run ratio was untenable, and nearly cost them the game.

Thus, in my mind, the team's three biggest problems are eminently fixable (four, if you count an extreme number of penalties). Moreover, their biggest liability from last year — the defense — showed signs of improvement. Look, it's hard to draw conclusions playing against Brandon Weeden & Co. That offense looked pitiful. But Juan Castillo's defense was rock solid. They did everything they were asked to do and more.

Cleveland had the fourth-highest average starting field position in the NFL on Sunday, courtesy of the five Eagles turnovers. They were also tied for first (with the Eagles) in total number of offensive possessions (15). Despite that, the defense only allowed three measly field goals. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stole two interceptions (Asante Samuel who?). The defensive line stacked up against the run better than we've seen since Jim Washburn came to town. DeMeco Ryans put last year's linebackers to shame with his burst through the hole.

No one should expect this level of dominance from the defense against the Ravens or other opponents, but it seems well on its way to competence and more. If you're looking for a reason for optimism, this is it. The offense is unlikely to be as bad as we saw in week one. The defense looks better than it has in quite some time. Is it too early to talk playoffs? (Yes, for the record.)

Photo from Getty

Final Thoughts on the Final Cuts

The final cuts are in, and I was wrong on so many counts. Oh well, not all of us can be Geoff Mosher. Here are my last thoughts on the roster as it currently stands:

I'm really kicking myself for not marking down a cut for Joselio Hanson. It's not like I didn't see this coming. He played poorly in 2011 (Sheil Kapadia noted that his Success Rate dropped dramatically) and the Eagles actually drafted his clear replacement. This should have been an easy call, but I was confused by the Eagles not giving Boykin much of a chance to start in the preseason.
Speaking of the secondary, is anyone else worried about the safety position? I'm on record as being relatively skeptical about the starters, but all in all they should be fine. The problem comes if they don't play well consistently—or one of them, shocker, gets hurt. Are you going to turn to Jaiquawn Jarrett? What about newly acquired youngster David Sims? Colt Anderson, coming off an injury, has never been thought of as anything more than a special teams whiz kid. I'm shocked that the Eagles could have five safeties on the roster and not one reliable veteran backup. Les Bowen did have a good quote from Howie Roseman on the bare safety market:

Everyone’s looking for safeties. They’re really hard to find. We’ve talked about this publicly. We’ve talked about it with our scouts. It’s just a position where guys who used to play it are moving to other spots. Some of it is the advent of the spread offense in college football. Some of it is other positions being glorified.

Not to rehash an extended discussion I had on Twitter last week, but it seems like the Trent Edwards over Mike Kafka decision may have more to it than meets the eye. It wasn't a month ago that Kafka was considered a lock to be Michael Vick's backup. Then he played 9 snaps, broke his hand, and was promptly passed by not one, but two players. Nick Foles certainly played his was into the second-string job, but was Edwards really that impressive? After getting cut by three teams and then sitting out the entire 2011 season, Edwards looked like just a camp body. He didn't get many reps in practice and although he played well in preseason games, that was against third and fourth-stringers. Perhaps it had less to do with Edwards though, and more to do with Foles. Once the rookie showed what he could do (perhaps even established himself as a QBOTF), the difference between Kafka and Edwards was meaningless. All that mattered was picking the player who best complemented (or who was best friends with) Foles.
Darryl Tapp reportedly took a pay cut to stay with the Eagles. It will be interesting to see if they make five defensive ends active on gameday. That's the only reason it makes sense to keep him.
The team kept both Bryce Brown and Chris Polk. I wonder if, at least for the future, there's some doubt about Dion Lewis. Lewis has shown some flashes, but he's a much better understudy than complement to LeSean McCoy, since everything the former can do the latter can do better. Brown and Polk bring different styles to the table. With any luck, one of them will be able to fill a Correll Buckhalter-type role down the line.

Photo from Getty.

The New Normal

Zach Berman wrote a story yesterday about the efforts the Eagles took to evaluate Damaris Johnson's character:

A coach normally tasked with uncovering punt protections was tasked with determining why the NCAA's all-time leader in total yards would jeopardize his future, and whether that player was sincere in his remorse.

Johnson returned home to the New Orleans area, where April was also raised. April started to dig. He spoke to teachers and civic leaders, coaches and friends. He met Johnson's girlfriend and guidance counselor. And he spent time with Johnson, watching the 5-foot-8, 175-pound prospect catch passes from a machine and run across the Tulane practice field. Then, he looked Johnson in the eyes and heard his story.

Berman doesn't mention it, perhaps because he's only been on the beat for a short while, but (putting Michael Vick aside, a special case if there ever was one) the Eagles haven't historically been interested in players like this with serious character concerns. Even at the end of the draft and in free agency where the risk is lower, this indicates a clear change in strategy.

Moreover, this isn't the first time this year we've heard stories about how much the Eagles dove into the character of a draft prospect. First round pick Fletcher Cox predictably got this treatment from Jim Washburn. But the other time was with late-round flier Bryce Brown. So not only has the Eagles policy toward character issues changed, but they're willing to go into the weeds on figuring out if those issues are real even for fringe prospects. Good to know.