Can The Eagles Defense Carry The Offense?

Last week, I placed the blame for the Eagles' 0-2 start squarely at the feet of the offense. Despite this week's win over the Jets (yay!), Chip Kelly's favorite unit continued to perform woefully.

Yes, Ryan Mathews, subbing in for DeMarco Murray, rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries. But his numbers hide the fact that there were still far too many negative or no gain rushes (10 total). Between Mathews and Darren Sproles, the rushing game averaged just 3.47 yards per carry, a heady improvement from the prior weeks, but nothing to get excited about. Everyone on the offensive line, including Kelce, Peters, and Johnson, are struggling to run block consistently.

Meanwhile, despite being sacked just once, Sam Bradford played another horrible game. His final numbers were 14 for 28 (50% completion rate) for just 118 yards. One touchdown and zero turnovers, if you want to focus on that. But his accuracy was poor, his ball placement terrible, and he has zero guts to throw the ball downfield, one of the only things that might give the running game enough room to breathe. See more at ChipWagon, as always.

All of which leads to...

The #Eagles offense is regressing. 2013: 6.3 yards per play 2014: 5.6 yards per play 2015: 4.5 yards per play

— Phil Bicking (@p_Red) September 28, 2015

Really bad. So the question is, until the time the offense recovers (assuming that's in the cards?), can the Eagles defense carry the team? And on that front, at least, there are some promising signs. To the stats!

Through three games, the Eagles have given up the 5th-fewest points per drive (1.42), the 9th-fewest yards per drive (26.9) and the 10th-fewest plays per drive (5.6). The run defense has been fantastic—allowing a league-low of 3.1 yards per rush and zero rushing touchdowns. Most important, they've forced turnovers on one out of every five opposing possessions. To keep it going, we'll need more Walter Thurmond ball-hawking and disruption at the line of scrimmage (Brandon Bair sighting FTW).

The worrisome note is that the Eagles haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks. The defense ranks 8th-worst in sack rate so far. Overall, this isn't terribly surprising. The two-gapping scheme means players like Fletcher Cox are responsible for the run first, then the pass second. Neither Connor Barwin nor Brandon Graham are consistent man-beaters on the outside. And now the top two middle linebackers are hurt. Billy Davis needs to mix in some good blitz concepts to get pressure if this defense is going to sustain itself.

Three games is also quite a small sample size, especially when about half of that time the Eagles faced Brandon Weeden and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Luckily, due to a combination of easy schedule and injuries, the Eagles aren't scheduled to face many top quarterbacks down the stretch. The next three games match up against Kirk Cousins, Luke McCown, and Eli Manning, with Cam Newton as the pre-bye week chaser.

Still, that we're having this conversation at all is a good sign. The defense was atrocious two years ago, and improved to average or slightly above last year. If it can take another leap, that's a huge deal for this team—especially if the offense can't turn it around.

Same Old Eagles? Not So Fast

The prevailing reaction to Sunday's season opener was, "Here we go again." The Eagles won, despite showing shockingly bad tendencies across the field. Anyone who was optimistic all offseason that the problems of 2011 were behind us was sorely mistaken.

But the more I think about the game, the more I think that narrative rings false. In fact, the team we saw on Sunday looked markedly different than last year's version — for better and worse. This version looked like a Bizarro Eagles — comically exaggerated in some ways and a complete 180 turn in others. All told, I may actually be more optimistic today that I was before Sunday.

Let's start, as one should, with Michael Vick. The conventional wisdom was that whatever was wrong with Vick in 2011 could be fixed in a few months of one-on-one tutelage with Marty Mornhinweg. I was never so sure. To me, Vick looked like a flawed quarterback last year. I use the word flawed purposely. He certainly wasn't the elite player we glimpsed in 2010, a Superman quarterback. But for 2011 Football Outsiders ranked him 12th in passing DVOA, the second-best mark in his career — by far — and just a tick below his 2010 performance. Other measures were even more positive: lowest sack rate in his career and highest yards per rush since 2006, despite staying in the pocket more than ever.

Vick's biggest problems in 2011 were accuracy and turnovers, both of which reverted back toward his career averages. That alone, though, doesn't make Vick a bad quarterback — just flawed. And they are flaws Vick is unlikely to snap out of at age 32. But the Vick we saw against the Browns wasn't merely flawed, he was broken. He posted a shocking single-game -50.7% DVOA, third-worst in the NFL, in front of only Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (-106.4% LOL). He threw four interceptions, tying a career-worst. His quarterback rating was 51.0, worse than in all but one game he's played in the last two years.

Derek gave you the pessimistic scenario for Vick's problems — that Andy Reid and company have actually made him worse by tinkering. There is truth there with regard to Vick's regression in 2011. He was at his best when he was playing off the cuff, taking the world by storm in 2010. But in terms of Sunday, we may have watched something akin to a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Vick has permanently fallen back to the realm of overmatched rookies, unable to see linebackers dropping back into coverage. You can't wave away his performance with a "rusty" tag, but what you saw is basically worst case scenario Vick. I would be surprised if he is still be playing at that level next week, let alone six weeks from now.

That is, assuming the offensive line gets fixed. Bizarro Eagles exaggerated Vick's flaws — as well as the line's problems. King Dunlap is a poor substitute for Jason Peters, but he wasn't the (main) issue. There were simply too many communications breakdowns. Sheil Kapadia ran through every hit Vick took, and by my quick examination, eight of those involved either a completely unblocked rusher or one that was handed off improperly. Considering four out of the five linemen played together last year, that shouldn't happen. Nor do I expect it to going forward. Molding the line into a coherent unit is what Howard Mudd gets paid the big bucks to do — and it's an easier fix than having to replace overmatched players.

Clearly the play-calling was also an issue. Why did the Eagles keep four running backs if they aren't going to use them? Take some pressure off of Vick by running more of the offense through LeSean McCoy. And if you're worried about McCoy breaking down, give some carries to Bryce Brown (or Dion Lewis or Chris Polk). Last year, right after the Eagles fourth preseason loss, I advocated unleashing McCoy. Coincidentally, that was right after Vick played in a similarly crappy manner to last Sunday (2 TDs, 4 INTS, 315 yards passing). Marty Mornhinweg listened (or at least had the same thought), and proceeded to call Shady's number for 58 rushes over the next two games. He didn't disappoint — racking up 311 yards and three scores. Mornhinweg and Reid aren't complete idiots. They know last week's pass-run ratio was untenable, and nearly cost them the game.

Thus, in my mind, the team's three biggest problems are eminently fixable (four, if you count an extreme number of penalties). Moreover, their biggest liability from last year — the defense — showed signs of improvement. Look, it's hard to draw conclusions playing against Brandon Weeden & Co. That offense looked pitiful. But Juan Castillo's defense was rock solid. They did everything they were asked to do and more.

Cleveland had the fourth-highest average starting field position in the NFL on Sunday, courtesy of the five Eagles turnovers. They were also tied for first (with the Eagles) in total number of offensive possessions (15). Despite that, the defense only allowed three measly field goals. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stole two interceptions (Asante Samuel who?). The defensive line stacked up against the run better than we've seen since Jim Washburn came to town. DeMeco Ryans put last year's linebackers to shame with his burst through the hole.

No one should expect this level of dominance from the defense against the Ravens or other opponents, but it seems well on its way to competence and more. If you're looking for a reason for optimism, this is it. The offense is unlikely to be as bad as we saw in week one. The defense looks better than it has in quite some time. Is it too early to talk playoffs? (Yes, for the record.)

Photo from Getty

Recap: Eagles vs. Browns

I don't know what everyone's all excited about. This is why the Eagles schedule five preseason games in the first place.

Michael Vick didn't have his greatest game. In fact, he was downright bad, with four interceptions and a few more close calls. But, as Andy Reid said after the game, Vick was just "rusty." After he injured himself the last two times he took the field, it was good to see Vick back out there today, and his ability to "just keep shooting" will help him once the real games start.

What's that? Yes, you're right. Vick was supposed to show improvement this year, considering he had his "first real offseason as a starter" with quarterback gurus Reid and Marty Mornhinweg. But I'm sure that "new Vick" is coming soon. The fact that he looked worse than ever, making poor decisions and forgetting that linebackers existed in coverage, is a small thing. Vick needed to get out some of the bugs, and what else is a dress rehearsal for?

That must have been the reason Reid and Mornhinweg didn't use LeSean McCoy. Vick had 65 pass drop backs in the game, while the Eagles All-Pro running back—who the Browns demonstrated an inability to stop—was a sideshow for most of the afternoon. Better to keep McCoy fresh for the games that count, I suppose, and let Vick get more practice throwing interceptions.

That goes double for Jeremy Maclin, who racked up yardage and a touchdown, but wisely avoided blocking down the field and dropped a few balls just for practice. We wouldn't want the biggest of the Eagles' healthy wide receivers to actually demonstrate toughness yet.

We can probably also discount the inebriated performance of the offensive line. Howard Mudd was just using this game to test the replacement referees' definition of holding and roughing the passer. When Danny Watkins let his man stream by him off the snap, I'm sure it was in service of one of those goals. Same with the time that McCoy tried to run behind his left tackle, and the King in the North just stood there, idly watching.

Besides, the defense looked great, didn't it? Let's not discount their improvement. Yes, it was against on offense that probably had trouble tying its shoes in the morning, but that's no matter. Brandon Weeden and his 5.1 passer rating is surely up to the quality of the rest of the quarterbacks the Eagles will face. And the Browns' other offensive weapons were at least average, right?

Save your outrage. Embrace "rusty." And wake me up next week in time for the season opener against the Ravens. There's a game I'm looking forward to.

Photo from Getty.

Matchup: Eagles vs. Browns

Les Bowen had a fun piece today, looking at the last five Eagles season openers. It's interesting. There were three blowout victories: 2008, 2009, and 2011. Then there were two close losses (both to the Packers, incidentally) in 2007 and 2010.

It's hard to look at the Eagles matchup on Sunday and not see something closer to the former than the latter. The Browns appear to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their starting quarterback is a 28-year-old rookie. They have no passing weapons to speak of. Trent Richardson, their other first round pick, seems dangerous—but he's hobbled by an injury. The Browns defense is filled with castoffs, starting a familiar defensive backfield that includes Dimitri Patterson and Sheldon Brown. ​Mike Tanier was dead on accurate in his assessment of the Browns as the Eagles "minor-league affiliate".

I don't know how you call this game any other way but a victory for the Eagles. They're the nine-point favorite—on the road! I'm not smart enough to pick against all these factors. All I had to see was Damaris Johnson torching Sheldon Brown down the sidelines in the third preseason game. If that's what an undrafted free agent can do, I'm expecting a big day from the newly-minted man, DeSean Jackson. Hopefully this game will also give Michael Vick an opportunity to return to form against slightly lesser competition.

All that said, ​I'm also expecting a sloppy game. The Eagles weren't exactly firing on all cylinders throughout the preseason (which is fine). Keep an eye on the offensive line and linebackers this week. Problems there might not be enough to lose the game, but as with last year's opener against the Rams, the warning signs may be flashing for the rest of the season.

​See you on Sunday!

Photo from Getty