Can The Eagles Defense Carry The Offense?

Last week, I placed the blame for the Eagles' 0-2 start squarely at the feet of the offense. Despite this week's win over the Jets (yay!), Chip Kelly's favorite unit continued to perform woefully.

Yes, Ryan Mathews, subbing in for DeMarco Murray, rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries. But his numbers hide the fact that there were still far too many negative or no gain rushes (10 total). Between Mathews and Darren Sproles, the rushing game averaged just 3.47 yards per carry, a heady improvement from the prior weeks, but nothing to get excited about. Everyone on the offensive line, including Kelce, Peters, and Johnson, are struggling to run block consistently.

Meanwhile, despite being sacked just once, Sam Bradford played another horrible game. His final numbers were 14 for 28 (50% completion rate) for just 118 yards. One touchdown and zero turnovers, if you want to focus on that. But his accuracy was poor, his ball placement terrible, and he has zero guts to throw the ball downfield, one of the only things that might give the running game enough room to breathe. See more at ChipWagon, as always.

All of which leads to...

The #Eagles offense is regressing. 2013: 6.3 yards per play 2014: 5.6 yards per play 2015: 4.5 yards per play
— Phil Bicking (@p_Red) September 28, 2015

Really bad. So the question is, until the time the offense recovers (assuming that's in the cards?), can the Eagles defense carry the team? And on that front, at least, there are some promising signs. To the stats!

Through three games, the Eagles have given up the 5th-fewest points per drive (1.42), the 9th-fewest yards per drive (26.9) and the 10th-fewest plays per drive (5.6). The run defense has been fantastic—allowing a league-low of 3.1 yards per rush and zero rushing touchdowns. Most important, they've forced turnovers on one out of every five opposing possessions. To keep it going, we'll need more Walter Thurmond ball-hawking and disruption at the line of scrimmage (Brandon Bair sighting FTW).

The worrisome note is that the Eagles haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks. The defense ranks 8th-worst in sack rate so far. Overall, this isn't terribly surprising. The two-gapping scheme means players like Fletcher Cox are responsible for the run first, then the pass second. Neither Connor Barwin nor Brandon Graham are consistent man-beaters on the outside. And now the top two middle linebackers are hurt. Billy Davis needs to mix in some good blitz concepts to get pressure if this defense is going to sustain itself.

Three games is also quite a small sample size, especially when about half of that time the Eagles faced Brandon Weeden and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Luckily, due to a combination of easy schedule and injuries, the Eagles aren't scheduled to face many top quarterbacks down the stretch. The next three games match up against Kirk Cousins, Luke McCown, and Eli Manning, with Cam Newton as the pre-bye week chaser.

Still, that we're having this conversation at all is a good sign. The defense was atrocious two years ago, and improved to average or slightly above last year. If it can take another leap, that's a huge deal for this team—especially if the offense can't turn it around.

Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on.
Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans.

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
Kurt Coleman: Bye.
Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line.
Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

The Eagles Still Aren't Great, But That's OK

Before the season started, I set my expectations for 2013 at a reasonable level: an improvement from last year's disaster squad and a foundation built for future growth. As I said then, most teams as bad as the Eagles improved, on DVOA terms, by an average of about 12%. I anticipated something along those lines, with a slight record improvement but certainly no mention of playoffs.

Obviously, I was wrong. Before Sunday's loss, the Eagles had improved by nearly 33% in DVOA, one of the best turnarounds ever. That will cool slightly this week, but the team still has the inside track on a playoff spot, something most people (including Jeffrey Lurie) never expected to happen so soon.

But Sunday's game reminded us that this squad -- or at least half of it -- is still a work in progress. Chip Kelly's offense is gangbusters, even if it can sputter out for stretches. On a "bad day," Nick Foles threw for 428 yards on 30 for 48 attempts, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Plus he ran the ball 5 times for 41 yards to boot. LeSean McCoy only got 8 carries, but still finished with over 100 yards from scrimmage. DeSean Jackson had nearly 200 receiving yards plus an end-around touchdown called back due to penalty. Oh, and rookie tight end Zach Ertz ended the day with 57 yards on 6 receptions, including a one-handed TD grab. No big problems here.

The defense is still messy, though. As I've said before, you don't have to be an elite quarterback to find the holes in Billy Davis' scheme (Hint: look for the safeties). A smart, patient, accurate player will pick this secondary apart. That's what happened when the Eagles D was skinned alive during the three-game stretch against Philip Rivers, Alex Smith, and Peyton Manning. Since then, during the team's 7-2 run, opponents never scored more than 21 points.

The great nine-game run leading up to Sunday seemed to be the defense gelling, but most of it was the horrendous, mistake-prone quarterbacks the Eagles faced. Only two of the QBs the Eagles faced in that span have positive DVOA on the year, and they played one of those in a blizzard. Matt Cassel could easily have been another one of those lightweights, but he did his best 2008 impression, throwing for the 4th-most yards of his career. That came despite the Eagles front seven holding the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings to just 2.4 yards per carry.

Worth noting: Football Outsiders never bought into the Eagles defensive turnaround. While they were bend-but-not-breaking their way to sub-22 point totals, the defense allowed over 350 yards in all but two of the last 9 games. Coming into Sunday, the team ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, versus 3rd on offense. Even with Denver and Kansas City as past opponents, the Eagles faced the 27th-weakest schedule and registered the highest level of inconsistency in the league prior to this week. Including week 15, the Eagles have the lowest point differential of any division leader.

So again, the Eagles aren't great. If their schedule weren't so easy, including six games against the criminally ugly NFC East, I imagine the team would have finished closer to my "return to 1999" prediction than their current possible outcome of 8-10 wins. If the Eagles win the division, which I now expect them to do either against Chicago with the Cowboys losing again, or in Dallas the week after, they will have vastly overperformed -- despite being only a mediocre overall team.

But that's OK. Even if the Eagles get rolled over by a better wild card team like San Francisco, Carolina, or New Orleans, the season will have been a smashing success, and one to build on in 2014. Kelly's offense still has room to grow next year, and the defensive reconstruction will continue. Until then, enjoy this #housemoney season.

Is The Eagles Defense One Competent Safety Away From Success?

Alright, no.

But as I was watching the Eagles-Giants game on Sunday, I was drawn to this question. The Eagles defense has problems across the board. The new corners can at least tackle better than their predecessors, but remain inconsistent in coverage. Even at their best, neither Cary Williams nor Bradley Fletcher scares an opposing quarterback. Meanwhile, the front seven is a transitioning mess. Sopoaga barely shows up, and two-gapping hides last year's stud Fletcher Cox. Connor Barwin has been solid, but Trent Cole is hit-or-miss at OLB. Mychal Kendricks makes terrifically athletic plays, then falls down in coverage. The responsibilities in the run game are unclear. The pass rush is nonexistent, which has led to the bizarre move of making Brandon Boykin a rush linebacker.

This is all granted. It's a bad defense with a lot of personnel and scheme questions. But unlike the offensive side of the ball, where a great quarterback or running back can carry a team at times, defense often seems to be about your weakest link. A smart, patient, accurate quarterback can find your weakness and exploit it. Such was evident against the Peytons, but I'm not sure how much there is to learn from a drubbing at their formidable hands.

The Elis posed a much less dangerous threat. The Giants offense only scored 7 points in the two previous games. Yet they put up three times that on Sunday. Why? Again, there are many problems with this defense. The front seven, most notably, failed to register a sack until the end of the game, against a banged-up Giants offensive line.

But looking at the tape and the numbers, I'd single out safety as by far the biggest problem. The Giants only had three scoring drives. The officials gifted them the last one on a bogus pass interference call on Brandon Boykin. On the other two, 80% of the Giants' total yards were gained on four plays of 20 yards or more. What all four plays had in common was the Eagles' safeties.

On the Giants' first drive, Hakeem Nicks caught a 49-yard bomb from Manning, the second attempt in a row to split Nate Allen and Bradley Fletcher. Two plays later, David Wilson plunged into the end zone.

The second scoring drive, in the third quarter, started with a 26-yard pass to Brandon Myers where the tight end found a huge hole down the middle between Allen and Earl Wolff. Two plays later, Manning found a wide open Reuben Randle for 20 yards. Looked like Wolff should have been covering that zone, but ran with Myers over the middle instead.

Finally, the drive culminated in a disgustingly easy 24-yard TD pass to Randle. We don't have All-22 yet, but let's break that one down anyway. The Giants have three WRs, one TE, and one RB. The Eagles are going to play what looks like (again, pre-coaches tape) a variant of Cover One Robber. The defense is in man-to-man across the formation. At the snap, Allen (in blue) is going to drop into a centerfield role while Wolff rolls into the short middle. The rookie's job in Robber coverage is to help in run support if necessary, then read the QB's eyes and jump into those short and intermediate crossing routes.

Below, you can see what happens after the snap. Kendricks has blitzed, and DeMeco Ryans is looping around him (and possibly reading the running back). That leaves Wolff as the sole middle-of-the-field defender. At the top, Randle is going to run a slant against Fletcher.

Below, Manning has stared down Randle, but as he throws, Wolff hasn't moved much. Meanwhile, Fletcher is dropping further back guarding against getting beat deep in man. This leaves a big hole in the zone where Wolff ideally should be:

As Randle catches the ball below, the defense has failed. He's about to pick up a first down because neither Fletcher, who dropped way back, nor Wolff were there to stop an easy slant. Still, with three guys converging -- including Allen from his deep role -- at least it should stop there...

Except wait, no, that's not what happens. You can see below that Wolff was not only late, but he took a terrible angle at Randle and didn't even lay a finger on him. Ditto for Allen, who does this all the time. Randle scampers in for the easy touchdown.

It's worth pointing out that Boykin (bottom) is basically standing still in the last screenshot. If you re-watch the play you'll see that he slows down, seeing what we did, that the Eagles have three defenders set to shut Randle down. As the receiver breaks free instead, Boykin has an "Oh $&!#" moment, where he briefly tries to recover and help out. But it's too late.

So overall, what do we learn? The Eagles defense has a lot of problems, but the biggest mistakes all came from the two safeties. I'd venture that without those, the Eagles might have held the Giants to only 7 or 10 points. That's why I wonder how much better this defense would be with just one competent safety. Getting Patrick Chung healthy again will certainly help some, but I'm already looking ahead to the 2014 free agent class. Jairus Byrd? Donte (W)Hitner? An above-average player at that position would do wonders for this team.

Pass Rushers Here, There, and Everywhere

In Chip Kelly's second press conference in Philadelphia, he told us that he liked the 3-4 defense best, but that scheme flexibility was of the major reasons he hired defensive coordinator Billy Davis:

What we're going to do is put our guys in the best position for them to make plays. I don't know if that's being a 3-4 team, a 4-3 team, a 5-2, a 6-1 team. I know we could add up at the numbers to see where we are. We're also not caught up in that. It's about making sure we play sound defense on first, second and third down. We could look drastically different on first and second downs than third downs. And that's going to be entirely personnel-driven for us. Could it be a 4-3 under defense? Yeah, or it could be a 3-4 under defense.

Since saying that, Kelly and Howie Roseman have added new pieces to the mix. Isaac Sopoaga can immediately step in at nose tackle. Connor Barwin is a starting outside linebacker. These are important steps in the direction of a 3-4, or a 4-3 under defense (as discussed previously). But which is it? Does it matter? What's the direction to take this year, even if it's only a stopgap measure? The key to answering those questions is in the sudden surplus of pass rushers the Eagles seem to have between Barwin, Trent Cole, and Brandon Graham. Here are their numbers from Pro Football Focus, including the last two years for Barwin:

Before we get into ramifications for the defense, let's discuss each player in turn. Graham wasn't a full time starter last season, although only Andy Reid knows why. When he was on the field he was an absolute beast in every phase. Graham put up the highest Pass Rush Productivity mark of any defensive end in the league. He was also a top run defender -- ranking third out of the top 37 qualifying players in tackle and stop percentage.

Cole's performance was mixed in 2012. Despite being slightly undersized, he has always been solid against the run. That seems to have held up in his age 30 season. His run defense percentages were nearly as good as Graham's. But Cole definitely suffered a decline in his pass rush. From 2009-2011, he ranked seventh, third, and first respectively in PRP. This year he dropped to 18th. That still put him in the top half of 4-3 defensive ends, but only barely.

Finally we get to the newcomer Barwin. Truthfully, his numbers aren't pretty. As a 3-4 OLB, he was classified differently than Cole or Graham, but he didn't impress compared to his peers. Even during his 11 sack season in 2011, he was only middle of the road in total PRP, suggesting that the sacks may have been a lucky break despite less actual pressure. Barwin was also a subpar run stopper.

So can all three coexist at outside linebacker in a standard 3-4? That's going to be tough. Based on these stats, Graham needs to be on the field at all times, no matter what the role. Barwin wasn't signed to be a backup, either. He needs to be slotted in as pass rushing OLB. Where does that leave Cole? In a world where his contract wasn't so large, it probably leads to his trade. But if he's staying, it's silly to see him backing up a (worse) player like Barwin. And Cole's potentially-declining pass rush doesn't lend itself to a specialist role either.

What if the answer is relatively simple -- Cole goes back to playing more or less his old position of defensive end, but in the new 4-3 under scheme? He's no prototypical 5-technique defensive end, but Cole works there if you think more about the player and less about a rigid scheme. First, he's still great against the run, which is that player's primary job. Second, it allows him to keep his hand on the ground, rather than convert to a stand-up linebacker in his ninth season. Third, it keeps the team's best personnel in the game, and actually aids scheme flexibility. (Tinfoil theory: if Vinny Curry is bulking up to compete at DE rather than slimming down for OLB, that could be hinting at this move.)

As you can see from the numbers above, both Barwin and Cole played the vast majority of their snaps on the right side. Set them up on that side again, with Cole as the DE and Barwin as SAM. Across the formation, Sopoaga is the nose tackle on run downs, with Fletcher Cox is the penetrating 3-technique defensive tackle. Graham, hopefully your star, mans the "Predator" DE/OLB spot on the left -- where he lined up all of last year.

Because offensive alignments will shift, the defense won't necessarily have clear strongside-weakside assignments, but it will have flexible pass rushing duos. Graham + Cox and Cole + Barwin are dangerous pairings for an offense to handle. Whether Graham or Barwin are standing up or putting their hands on the ground doesn't really matter, they should both get one-on-one matchups on the outside when rushing the passer.

If Kelly was telling the truth about crafting the defense to fit his players, this is the direction he should head. Rather than forcing Cole to convert positions and sit on the bench, keep him where he's comfortable. In a year or two, after you've groomed young backups, you can revisit whether you need to replace Cole with a more traditional 3-4 end. Until then, live those "personnel-driven" words you preach.

Photo from Getty.

Connor Barwin and the Pass Rushers

The Eagles made a surprise move on Thursday, adding 3-4 outside linebacker Connor Barwin. The initial reports of the deal were of an imposing six-year, $36 million contract. But only the first two years are guaranteed ($8 million), and the three-year total is just $13.5 million. That's quite a reasonable deal for a young pass rusher, although it muddles the overall defensive picture. Let's talk it out.

First, there's Barwin himself. The 26-year-old former Houston Texan was drafted in the second round in 2009. In his first season (as a 4-3 defensive end), Barwin registered 4.5 sacks in a backup role. After an injury in the 2010 opener caused him to miss the entire season, he returned as a starting OLB in Wade Philips' 3-4 defense the next year, notching 11.5 sacks. Last year, while he played 94 percent of the team's defensive snaps, Barwin regressed to only 3 sacks.

It's tough to know exactly what that means. 19 sacks in your first three real seasons is impressive, although Barwin would be making a lot more money if his 2011 results had come last year. Pro Football Focus' pressure per play numbers were never that high on Barwin, even during 2011, and they declined further in 2012. Howie Roseman excused that performance, saying Barwin had fewer opportunities last year to play on the "open side" of the formation away from the tight end. He did rush the passer 86 percent of the time.

Overall I think the move is fine. The more detailed contract numbers suggest that Barwin is being paid like an above average but not great pass rusher. At only 26, he still has upside, and he's the first guy the Eagles added with extensive experience as a 3-4 edge rusher. Plus, his 6'4", 260 lb. frame fits Chip Kelly's new physical mandate. Tough to argue with any of that.

The bigger question is how the Barwin signing dominoes through the rest of the lineup. The Eagles have three incumbent players who seem likely to be slotted at outside linebacker: Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, and Vinny Curry. Without much data on Curry, he was going to be fighting for playing time regardless. Graham came on strong last year, with 5.5 sacks and a ridiculous 17.3 PRP from Pro Football Focus. It's unclear if he can make the transition to the 3-4, but he does seem to have a bright future ahead of him. Cole had a down year, though, and he's entering his age 31 season. His ability to convert to a new defense is even more suspect. If Cole's contract wasn't so onerous he would have been traded by now.

Another complicating layer is that we don't know what the defense is really going to look like. If they go with the Billy Davis hybrid, all of the above players seem more like Predators than SAMs; they're primarily pass rushers who rarely drop back into coverage. Of course, having too many good pass rushers is rarely a problem, and Kelly is always preaching about catering the scheme to the players on hand. Final note: I doubt that the Barwin signing prevents the team from drafting another OLB early. To reiterate, there are questions with all of the current players, and the newcomer's deal is smaller than first thought. There are no guarantees going forward.

Other Notes:

Cary Williams & Kenny Phillips continue the trend of youth and high risk-reward signings that makes sense for a rebuilding team. A player like Philips, for example, has proven to be a good safety. A small bet on his health is a smart move, and it's even better in the secondary, where the team needs a complete overhaul.
Sheil has good notes on Geno Smith's workout with the Birds. Interesting to hear what kind of drills Kelly ran him through.

Photo from Getty.

The Past and Future at Defensive Tackle

On Monday, the Eagles parted ways with two veteran defensive tackles. The first, Cullen Jenkins, was a late-career mercenary hire in 2011, part of the free agent splurge that Joe Banner and company thought would put the team over the top. The other, Mike Patterson, was the longest-tenured Eagle, drafted with the team's first pick after the the Super Bowl. Neither cut was surprising; the new regime wants to get younger and less expensive.

However, the moves do give us an opportunity to step back and assess where the Eagles were coming from after last season and where they're going in the middle of the defensive line. Let's look at some 2012 stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

The first two stats, Tackle % and Stop %, are about run defense: per snap, how often did the defensive tackle get in on the play and how often did he cause a stop. As you can see, the young guys led the group. Out of the 52 DTs with the most snaps, Fletcher Cox made the eighth-most tackles per play and the 12th-most stops. And that was only his rookie season. Cedric Thornton wasn't too far behind, posting above average numbers in both categories. While Mike Patterson barely played, the two other veterans Jenkins and Derek Landri logged more run snaps but came up short. Both players ranked toward the bottom in tackles and stops.

Moving over to pass rushing, we see that Jenkins played more of those downs than anyone and was still effective in that role, with the 14th-best Pass Rush Productivity rating (Pressure per play). However, the rookie Cox actually edged him out. In (mostly) Jim Washburn's scheme, Thornton and Landri were also reasonably effective. Both were above average out of the 69 most active pass rushers.

Alright, so that's where the team stood at the end of the season. What does it mean, and where do they go from here? With Patterson's injury keeping him off the field and no dead money on his contract, he was an easy cut. Landri didn't impress on tape or in the stats department and will be allowed to walk as a free agent. Jenkins requires slightly more explanation. Some people have suggested that his experience in the 3-4 would be valuable in 2013. But I'm not sure how much value he would actually have in Billy Davis' defense (or any 3-4). Jenkins still shows flashes as a pass rusher, but he was a liability against the run last year. This isn't someone the Eagles can stick at 5-technique defensive end.

What do the Eagles need from their defensive tackles? With the edge pressure positions likely filled through 2012 holdovers (Brandon Graham, Trent Cole) and the draft, the team needs a dominant inside pass rusher, a lane-clogging nose tackle, and a strongside all-around 3-4 end type. The inside one-gapping defensive tackle is an easy choice. That's Cox's role all the way. From the start he's been a fantastic rusher and run defender, and he should only get better. The nose tackle is a tougher position to fill. Returnee Antonio Dixon has the physical skills to play there, but there will certainly be other candidates brought in.

The question in my mind is Thornton. Jim Washburn liked him because he, like Cox, had inside pass-rushing skills. But breaking down the numbers, Thornton was actually a better run defender in his first extended NFL action. At 6'4", 309 lbs, he's a physically-gifted player. You could slot him in as Fletcher Cox's backup easily and hope that enables more pressure. But why not give him a shot at the 3-4 style strongside end? That position values run-stopping first, and Thornton can do that already. When the nose tackle comes off the field on passing downs, he can slide inside and provide interior pressure. With the old guys out of the way, that seems like a move that could maximize current talent in 2013 and beyond.

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Projecting the Billy Davis Defense

It's easy to make snap judgments about assistant coach hires and their past record on other teams. New Eagles defensive coordinator Billy Davis certainly doesn't have a sparkling resume as a coordinator on paper. But he has tons of experience in 3-4 schemes, and recently has employed more of the hybrid look that many fans were clamoring for when Gus Bradley was in town.

In Arizona, where Davis was linebackers coach for two seasons and defensive coordinator for another two, his preferred scheme was the "4-3 Under". The name is deceptive, because it's not a classic 4-3 look like we're used to seeing from the Eagles. It borrows elements from both the 3-4 and 4-3, and depending on the formation, can lineup looking like either. You can (and should) read about it directly from Davis' mouth here and here. But let me show you, to the best of my ability. Here's what the base 4-3 Under defense looks like:

Let's start up front and work our way back. If you focus on the two defensive linemen DE-NT on the strongside (left) of the formation, the look is similar to a lot of 3-4 schemes. The nose tackle should be a big run stuffer who ideally can occupy two blockers. He'll often come off the field in passing situations. On the strongside, there's a defensive end whose primary job is similar to the all-around 3-4 defensive end: get some pressure, but mainly stuff the run.

Coming to the weakside (right), you look more for pass rushers. Because the nose tackle will be occupying two linemen in the middle, both your defensive tackle and end should have mostly one-on-one matchups. This is where you want to get a lot of pressure. That defensive end, known as the "Predator" in Davis' scheme, is going to rush nearly every play, so he doesn't have to be as versatile as your typical 3-4 outside linebacker. However, he looks like that 3-4 player at times because he can move around, rush from a standing position, and occasionally drop into a zone.

Moving to the linebackers, let's start with the strongside (SLB). Last year in the Eagles' more typical 4-3 scheme, the strongside backer was mostly a coverage guy who handled the tight end. In this defense he's much more of the classic 3-4 OLB. He's going to stand up at the line and engage the tight end, but he'll often pass rush instead of dropping back into coverage. With a player like this, you're adding some of the great unpredictability of a 3-4 defense.

The middle linebacker in this scheme has to be someone willing to go up against offensive linemen. As you can see in the diagram, unless the nose tackle holds a double team, the MLB is heads-up against a guard. A slightly bigger "thumper" is necessary here. In contrast, the weakside linebacker is free to roam. Because he lines up behind three defensive linemen, he shouldn't have big blockers coming at him. While the MLB engages in the trenches, this faster player should be flying through the chaos to make the tackle.

The scheme is a nice change from the Wide Nine, not because that scheme was fundamentally unsound, but because the 4-3 Under is more flexible and unpredictable. Rather than rushing the same four linemen in the same way every down, you have a 3-4 OLB on the strongside who can cause havoc. You've also set up two of your presumably better pass rushers with great routes to the QB, while still shoring up the run game. On early downs you have a big bodied player clogging up the middle, and on pass plays you can take him out and focus on creative stunts and blitzes.

Importing Davis' ideas also looks good because, at least on paper, it seems perfect for a number of the defenders we want to keep. Fletcher Cox is a great attacking DT. Getting him one-on-one matchups on the weakside should be fantastic for generating inside pressure. The "Predator" DE looks like a great opportunity for older Trent Cole and/or emerging Brandon Graham to pin their ears back. DeMeco Ryans, at 6'1" and 247 lbs, should be able to admirably fill the MLB role, while speedy Mychal Kendricks slips right into the play-making WLB spot.

There are still personnel issues to sort out. Only the disappointing Antonio Dixon has the body type of the prototypical NT, although Mike Patterson has lots of run-stuffing experience. Cedric Thornton showed some promise at defensive tackle last year, but might not be a big enough presence to take on the 3-4 DE role on the strongside. Cullen Jenkins has played that role before, but at 32 he may not make it through cuts. Most importantly, the Eagles definitely don't have a promising candidate to play the strongside linebacker. Here's one description of that player:

The number one reason why more teams don't run a 4-3 Under is the difficulty in finding a player good enough to play the SAM. He needs to be big, strong, fast, and able to cover or rush the passer at any given time. He lines up on the outside edge of the TE at all times, and harasses him off the line, never allowing a free release, staying underneath on routes because you have your safety over the top. He also gets one-on-one matchups on the outside to pass rush.

It's worth noting that there will be a number of potential stud 3-4 OLB-types available at the fourth overall pick. That could be something to watch for as we get closer to the draft.

Want to read more? Check out these links for longer discussion: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Photo from Getty.