On Lane Johnson, EJ Manuel, and More

The Eagles stayed in their fourth overall spot on Thursday night and selected the offensive tackle from Oklahoma, Lane Johnson. Needless to say, I'm a big fan of the pick. As I've discussed on multiple occasions, the offensive line was a huge question mark given age, injuries, and general uncertainty on the right side. With one move, the Eagles have turned the line into a strength. If Johnson can start on the right side immediately, it moves Todd Herremans back to an easier position at guard and eliminates Danny Watkins from our collective memory. Johnson also injects youth and versatility onto the line. He has the potential to take over at left tackle from Jason Peters down the line.

One of the things that came across in Chip Kelly's press conference was that Johnson is still raw, but the Eagles have confidence in a player of his athletic ability. Check out how he scored in the combine versus other tackles via his Mockdraftable profile at right. Johnson is elite across the board, with the biggest detriment coming with his skinny frame of only 303 lbs. Fun fact, though, the Eagles apparently measured his wrists and ankles to determine that he can add up to another 20 lbs without problem (#SportScience). As Jimmy Kempski writes, the Eagles now have one of the most athletically gifted offensive lines in the NFL. Kelly must love that. Read more on Johnson from Tommy Lawlor.

Another intriguing aspect of the first round was drama surrounding quarterback. EJ Manuel was a surprise as the first QB selected, way up at #16 overall. Manuel himself suggested that the Eagles were one of just a few teams heavily interested. I'm not surprised by that, since he would be perfect for Kelly's offense. But it seems that the Bills, anxious to beat other teams, jumped on Manuel before anyone else had a shot. I wonder if the Eagles were prepared to go back into the bottom of the first round to get Manuel. They certainly could have hoped that Geno Smith and Ryan Nassib would have drawn more attention early. At this point I doubt that Smith would remain a target for the Eagles at 35, although you never say never.

What I'm really looking for next on the Eagles draft board is some defense. While the team will (and should) certainly be open to tight ends with potential, the other side of the ball is what needs the most help. The Eagles have eight remaining picks, and could gather some more if they trade down at all. I tend to think at least six of those will be used to aid the defensive transition. Another safety, perhaps, like Johnathan Cyprien, or a big body like Jesse Williams or John Jenkins could be in order in the second round.

Photo from Getty.

Should vs. Will: Pre-Draft Eagles Defense Breakdown

Once again, it's time to take one last look at the Eagles roster before the draft. With the offense already discussed, let's move on to the defense. Today we'll take each position in turn, noting what I think the Eagles should do against what I think they will do.

Defensive Line: One of the things that's tough about this analysis is we don't yet know exactly what the defensive scheme will look like. Adding Isaac Sopoaga and Connor Barwin point strongly in the direction of a 3-4, but both Chip Kelly at Oregon and Billy Davis with the Cardinals have run hybrid schemes. The most recent report suggests that at least in the base defense there's a 3-4 focus with Cox on one side, Sopoaga at the nose, and players like Vinny Curry and Cedric Thornton on the other. Trent Cole and Brandon Graham are shifted to outside linebacker, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them playing with their hands on the ground in many pass rush situations. If the goal is to transition more fully into a 3-4, Cox is the only solid piece in place. I like Thornton too, but that other end spot is still up for grabs. Meanwhile, Sopogoa will turn 32 in September. A young nose tackle to groom under him is important.

DL Should: I'd rather the team skip some of the top names and draft bodies to compete in the mid and late rounds. Neither the nose tackle nor the end opposite Cox need to be glamorous players, and you can find good options later. DL Will: There's a chance, especially if they trade down, that defensive line could be a target in the first round, but I think most likely it's a position they'll address later on.

Linebacker: The great conversion begins with Graham and Cole, who are transitioning to stand-up linebackers in the new scheme. The team needs to add more young depth here, though, especially because its unclear that either will be able to handle a new position. On the inside, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks make a solid one-two punch. Not much need there at the moment.

LB Should: If Fisher's off the board at four overall, I wouldn't hesitate to select Dion Jordan. Players with his athleticism don't come along very often, and Kelly already knows how best to use him. Otherwise, I'm looking more to the later rounds and the undrafted pool for help here. Also, trade Vinny Curry to someone who might actually use him properly. LB Will: I think Jordan is a likely target if Jacksonville doesn't snatch him first. Otherwise the Eagles may like a third round pass rusher, as they have so many times in the past.

Cornerback: There's a ton of uncertainty at cornerback. We know what kind of slot corner Brandon Boykin is, but the two new (presumed) starters -- Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams -- are unknowns who weren't high-priced free agent acquisitions. I know no one's counting on familiar names like Huges, Lindley, or Marsh to suddenly step up.

CB Should: Draft one early, maybe in the top of the second round. This is a crucial position and it often takes years for a prospect to adjust to the NFL game. Get some talent into the building. CB Will: Sounds like there's a good group of corners expected to go in the second round. Perhaps the Eagles trade back or wait at the top of the third and scoop up whomever's left.

Safety: More question marks abound. The Eagles signed two players with talent but history of injuries and inconsistency: Kenny Philips and Patrick Chung. They bring back two players two underperformed mightily: Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman. Colt Anderson and David Sims stick around for good measure. I don't think there's any way to handicap who's going to start -- or even who's gong to be on the team a year from now. That deserves more competition.

S Should: There are some intriguing late first-early second round safety prospects, but I'd rather aim for cornerback first and safety later. S Will: The fourth-fifth round seems like a more reasonable place to add another body. Also UDFAs.

Photo from Getty.

Should vs. Will: Pre-Draft Eagles Offense Breakdown

The draft finally arrives this week, which means it's time to take one final look at the Eagles roster and figure out where the team stands, what spots are in good shape, and what is in desperate need of a talent infusion. Today we'll take on the offense, noting what I think the Eagles should do at each position against what I think they will do.

Quarterback: Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Dennis Dixon, G.J. Kinne -- one of these things is not like the others. I mean, sure, "Everybody has two legs," but plenty of read-option in mini-camp reinforces what kind of player Chip Kelly is looking for. Foles is not in the long term plans. Unfortunately, none of the other guys look like they are either. Vick is a workable stopgap, but the other two players are no more than third-string system fits. The question is whether this draft gives the Eagles an opportunity to add that franchise quarterback. Consensus seems to be that Geno Smith isn't worth the fourth overall pick. EJ Manuel is really the only other athletic quarterback likely to be taken early -- and he comes with even higher risk.

QB Should: Don't over think it. Quarterback is the most important position and you need to take them early and often. Smith has all the NFL tools plus experience running a fast-paced offense. I would trade back a few slots and draft him. And if not Smith, than seriously consider getting Manuel at the top of the second round. QB Will: Nothing, maybe a late round pick. Start looking at the 2014 class.

Running Back: LeSean McCoy said the new offense is "like a freaking track meet," yet as of this moment there are only three running backs on the roster: McCoy, Bryce Brown, and Chris Polk. Assuming he has worked on his fumbling issues, Brown joins McCoy to make one of the most dynamic 1-2 backfields in the NFL. But who else will be taking the baton? Polk was a good player in college, but he had a shoulder injury and didn't play at all as a rookie -- although the team kept him on the roster all year. Can't expect anything from him at this point. The niche this group needs to fill is a smaller third-down back to slot in with McCoy's shifty stardom and Brown's raw, big-bodied talent. If Kelly's offense works out, there should be plenty of space for all three to run through.

RB Should: Early round running backs need to be players who can start, but I'm focused on later in the draft. Whether it's Kenjon Barner or Kerwynn Williams, a speedster with bonus kick return skills would be a perfect fit. RB Will: At least one late-round back plus another two UDFAs.

Wide Receiver: The Eagles currently have 12 receivers on the roster. Most of them aren't much more than camp bodies, but there are hard decisions to be made at the top. In the short term, I doubt Jason Avant is long with this team seeing as old, slow receivers wouldn't seem to be at the top of Kelly's wishlist. Jeremy Maclin, meanwhile, is entering his contract year. No one can deny his overall production over his first four seasons, and I'm always in favor of retaining young talent. That said, he's never developed into the star that many expected and probably isn't worth top free agent money. Outside of those two and DeSean Jackson, there's not much to go on. Riley Cooper and Arrelious Benn have flashed talent and it would be fabulous to see one of them step into the valued "big WR role" we've been waiting for.

WR Should: Trade "culture carrier" Avant to Andy Reid for some seventh round pick he doesn't want. Draft a WR in the fourth-fifth round with starting potential; without knowing exactly what Kelly's looking for, it's tough to pick out one or two. WR Will: Keep Avant at least through training camp, draft a late round receiver.

Tight End: On the surface, you don't need to tinker much with this spot. Brent Celek has been an above-average tight end for years and the team just signed James Casey to take on expanded, versatile role. Clay Harbor deserves some competition but otherwise they're in good shape. I wonder, though, what Kelly and Howie Roseman think about Celek long term. You don't sign Casey if you think the incumbent can already perform as well, and starting in 2014 Celek costs nothing to cut.

TE Should: Focus on more pressing needs and check back in a year. Add a high-risk, high-reward late round pick or UDFA to compete. TE Will: In a good class, draft a third-fourth round tight end with upside. Travis Kelce, anyone?

Offensive Line: I've called the offensive line the biggest question mark on the team. Ideally, Jason Peters, Todd Herremans, and Jason Kelce will return from injury, joining Evan Mathis as four-fifths of a great line. But that's no guarantee, and it doesn't start to answer any of the subsequent questions: what about right guard? what about depth? what about the future? The unit needs an infusion of talent to compete across all positions and the team did next to nothing to address that in free agency.

OL Should: Outside of my general admonishment to never pass on a QB, this is where I'd put my focus with the fourth overall pick. Eric Fisher looks like a perfect combination of need and value. Best case scenario he would start at right tackle immediately, pushing Herremans inside. I also wouldn't hesitate to pick up another linemen or two later on. OL Will: Draft Fisher. I'd peg this as the most likely outcome on Thursday.

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Geno Smith and Expected Draft Value

I hope everyone is reading Brent Cohen's work over at Eagles Rewind. He's playing with stats and coming to interesting conclusions, especially with his PVM (Positional Value Multiplier) prospect rankings that add a discerning adjustment to the standard draft preparation.

Brent's goal is to take the consensus draft prospect rankings and apply two main modes of adjustment. First is a risk factor that attempts to quantify how reliable different positions are. He shows that offensive tackles, for example, have a bust rate of only 26%, compared to 50% for quarterbacks and 66% for running backs. One can quibble with the metric (you might adjust for likelihood of Pro Bowl appearances instead of failure to start), but it's a good one to have. The second main adjustment is for positional value, i.e. how much one player is worth relative to another at a different position. Brent uses salary cap data to show a clear hierarchy, from centers and guards at the bottom to defensive ends and quarterbacks (far and away) at the top. Again, you can quibble with the exact numbers, but it's quite promising stuff.

The PVM rankings that emerge are interesting to look at. Certain players receive bumps -- especially quarterbacks. Others fall slightly, like guards and centers. The final result is not a radical departure from the original consensus, but that's not Brent's goal.

It is mine, though. I look at the numbers pulled, especially on salary cap figures, and it's obvious to me that there's a huge disparity in value between different positions. Brent's cap percentages are at right, and you can see that while the middle group is close, there are certain spots that vastly outweigh others. As I described above, the PVM rankings make an adjustment along these lines, but it doesn't come close to matching the discrepancies in value. In expected value terms, if you have two similarly-talented prospects -- one a center and one a defensive end, you should take the defensive end every time. In fact, if you take it literally, the center would have to be three times as good of a prospect as the end to warrant consideration.

Maybe this is too extreme of an adjustment for your tastes. If you want something closer to the consensus prospect values, Brent's PVM should serve you well. But I think this more accurately represents the reality on the ground. Chance Warmack may become a Pro Bowl guard -- many scouts rate him as the best player in the draft. But there's a strong case to be made, based on this data, that he would have to be 1.5 times better than the next best cornerback, 1.8 times better than the next best defensive end, or 2.7 times (!!!) better than the next best quarterback.

Plenty of caveats apply here, including the risk factor that I mentioned above. And you may either disagree with the salary cap distinctions entirely or have a more refined model based on it. I also haven't run my own projections for using this data to provide an updated draft list.

But if you look at the draft through this qualitative lens, it's easy to make an affirmative case for a quarterback, even Geno Smith. At this point I don't expect the Eagles to draft him. Most scouts consider Smith the best quarterback prospect, but also suggest that he wouldn't be so in previous years. Average rankings seem to consider him about 20th overall. That doesn't seem like the type of player you want to use your top five pick on.

However, I've said before that you always take the quarterback if you think he's your guy and the data backs that up. A good starting quarterback is worth nearly 50% more than the next most valuable position, according to salary cap numbers (and one might argue that's understating it). It's importance towers over other concerns. That means that even if Smith has a worse chance than average to become a good starter, his expected value from that smaller probability is still high -- likely higher than many players who will be drafted ahead of him. Smith may not be the safe pick, but if the goal is to maximize value, he may be the right one.

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Pass Rushers Here, There, and Everywhere

In Chip Kelly's second press conference in Philadelphia, he told us that he liked the 3-4 defense best, but that scheme flexibility was of the major reasons he hired defensive coordinator Billy Davis:

What we're going to do is put our guys in the best position for them to make plays. I don't know if that's being a 3-4 team, a 4-3 team, a 5-2, a 6-1 team. I know we could add up at the numbers to see where we are. We're also not caught up in that. It's about making sure we play sound defense on first, second and third down. We could look drastically different on first and second downs than third downs. And that's going to be entirely personnel-driven for us. Could it be a 4-3 under defense? Yeah, or it could be a 3-4 under defense.

Since saying that, Kelly and Howie Roseman have added new pieces to the mix. Isaac Sopoaga can immediately step in at nose tackle. Connor Barwin is a starting outside linebacker. These are important steps in the direction of a 3-4, or a 4-3 under defense (as discussed previously). But which is it? Does it matter? What's the direction to take this year, even if it's only a stopgap measure? The key to answering those questions is in the sudden surplus of pass rushers the Eagles seem to have between Barwin, Trent Cole, and Brandon Graham. Here are their numbers from Pro Football Focus, including the last two years for Barwin:

Before we get into ramifications for the defense, let's discuss each player in turn. Graham wasn't a full time starter last season, although only Andy Reid knows why. When he was on the field he was an absolute beast in every phase. Graham put up the highest Pass Rush Productivity mark of any defensive end in the league. He was also a top run defender -- ranking third out of the top 37 qualifying players in tackle and stop percentage.

Cole's performance was mixed in 2012. Despite being slightly undersized, he has always been solid against the run. That seems to have held up in his age 30 season. His run defense percentages were nearly as good as Graham's. But Cole definitely suffered a decline in his pass rush. From 2009-2011, he ranked seventh, third, and first respectively in PRP. This year he dropped to 18th. That still put him in the top half of 4-3 defensive ends, but only barely.

Finally we get to the newcomer Barwin. Truthfully, his numbers aren't pretty. As a 3-4 OLB, he was classified differently than Cole or Graham, but he didn't impress compared to his peers. Even during his 11 sack season in 2011, he was only middle of the road in total PRP, suggesting that the sacks may have been a lucky break despite less actual pressure. Barwin was also a subpar run stopper.

So can all three coexist at outside linebacker in a standard 3-4? That's going to be tough. Based on these stats, Graham needs to be on the field at all times, no matter what the role. Barwin wasn't signed to be a backup, either. He needs to be slotted in as pass rushing OLB. Where does that leave Cole? In a world where his contract wasn't so large, it probably leads to his trade. But if he's staying, it's silly to see him backing up a (worse) player like Barwin. And Cole's potentially-declining pass rush doesn't lend itself to a specialist role either.

What if the answer is relatively simple -- Cole goes back to playing more or less his old position of defensive end, but in the new 4-3 under scheme? He's no prototypical 5-technique defensive end, but Cole works there if you think more about the player and less about a rigid scheme. First, he's still great against the run, which is that player's primary job. Second, it allows him to keep his hand on the ground, rather than convert to a stand-up linebacker in his ninth season. Third, it keeps the team's best personnel in the game, and actually aids scheme flexibility. (Tinfoil theory: if Vinny Curry is bulking up to compete at DE rather than slimming down for OLB, that could be hinting at this move.)

As you can see from the numbers above, both Barwin and Cole played the vast majority of their snaps on the right side. Set them up on that side again, with Cole as the DE and Barwin as SAM. Across the formation, Sopoaga is the nose tackle on run downs, with Fletcher Cox is the penetrating 3-technique defensive tackle. Graham, hopefully your star, mans the "Predator" DE/OLB spot on the left -- where he lined up all of last year.

Because offensive alignments will shift, the defense won't necessarily have clear strongside-weakside assignments, but it will have flexible pass rushing duos. Graham + Cox and Cole + Barwin are dangerous pairings for an offense to handle. Whether Graham or Barwin are standing up or putting their hands on the ground doesn't really matter, they should both get one-on-one matchups on the outside when rushing the passer.

If Kelly was telling the truth about crafting the defense to fit his players, this is the direction he should head. Rather than forcing Cole to convert positions and sit on the bench, keep him where he's comfortable. In a year or two, after you've groomed young backups, you can revisit whether you need to replace Cole with a more traditional 3-4 end. Until then, live those "personnel-driven" words you preach.

Photo from Getty.

Chip Stew: What Kelly Needs In The NFL

The latest edition of Chip Stew brings a discussion of the spread offense in the NFL, from ESPN's Ivan Maisel:

"It would take an organizational commitment," [Stanford Coach David] Shaw said. "Everybody from top to bottom, the GM, the owner, the personnel people, need to be on a mission to give that offense what it needs. You can't waver from it. Everybody needs to be on the same page. It can't be, 'Well, let's bring this receiver in.' If he doesn't fit their offense, they can't bring him in. It's so different than [what] most people are used to."

Between free agency and the upcoming draft, this is an important point to keep in mind. The question isn't always "Who is best?" as much as "Who fits best?"

The Rise and Fall of the Andy Reid Era

I know we've all moved on to the wonderful potential of the Chip Kelly era, but I wanted to take a moment to look back at the era that was, the 14 years of longstanding success and, ultimately, failure under Andy Reid.

Building on work I started in 2011, and inspired by previous work by Derek Sarley, I put together a few graphs that I hope will illustrate one aspect of the Reid era's rise and fall -- as well as the core precepts of team building that the new regime needs to learn from. Below is a graph showing the Eagles starters each year, colored by years experience with the team. For example, the yellow demarcates starters for whom this is their first season in Philadelphia -- both rookies stepping right into impact roles and free agents signed off the street. Check it out:

Hopefully the graph looks less like a jumble of colors and more like a series of patterns that you can follow. Look, for example, at those first year starters. It spiked in Reid's first season, when he drastically remade the roster. However, it fell off quickly and stayed low -- until the great free agent binge of 2011. Another piece to look at is the top of the graph. Green demarcates the culture-carriers, the players who have been with the team for eight or more seasons. Check out how after Reid took over, he eliminated any players with that distinction, only to have the group slowly reappear and grow from 2003 to 2008.

Here's another, simpler version of the graph, in which I grouped some of the levels together:

You can see the broader trends easier when you break it down into just three categories. In Reid's first two seasons, he culled the longstanding veterans and added a bunch of new players -- rookies like Donovan McNabb and free agents like Jon Runyan. But during the celebrated run of four NFC Championship games, Reid maximized stability and growth and minimized turnover. You can also see clearly the mini-rebuild he embarked upon following the disastrous 2005 campaign. However, you'll note that while first and second-year starters spiked, the number of starters who'd been in Philly for seven years or more stayed flat. Reid had kept longstanding veterans like McNabb, Runyan, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, and Tra Thomas while rebooting with youngsters like Todd Herremans, Mike Patterson, Trent Cole, Jamaal Jackson, and Sean Considine.

What's fascinating is the third wave, another rebuild that started in 2010 but never really ended. Before the 2010 season, the Eagles had moved on from stalwarts like McNabb, Dawkins, Westbrook, Runyan, and Thomas. The problem is that as they eliminated those players, the replacements never came into their own. Some young players stepped in, like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy. But guys like Nate Allen and Danny Watkins fizzled. Free agents were brought in by the boatload in 2011 to shore that up, but they caused more problems than they solved. In Reid's last two years, half of the starters were basically new to the team -- more than double the amount during the 2001-2004 run.

Here's another related graph, showing the number of starters in each year who have either been with the team for two years prior or were actually starters for two years prior:

The same pattern emerges. From 2002-2004 the team had 11 or more returning starters, and 15 or more starters who had been with the team for a few years. For example, in 2003 Jermane Mayberry missed most of the year due to injury. Bobbie Williams, in his third year with the team, stepped up to replace him. In 2004 Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown took over full time from Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent. The new pair were relatively inexperienced, but it wasn't their first year on the job either. That makes a big difference. Compare that to 2011. The squad had three rookie starters, three sophomore starters, and four new free agent starters. That kind of discontinuity was a recipe for failure.

The lesson Kelly and company need to learn from the Reid era is that you can't build a Super Bowl team in a year. You have a lot of turnover when a new coach arrives, but the front office has to quickly shape the roster and find a core of young players who can grow together. By the time you're ready to compete, 2-3 years later, the team should be stable. And if you're going to rebuild, half-measures and plug-and-play starters won't do. There are no shortcuts to success.

Photo from Getty.

Confident Comeback

Jason Peters talked to the media yesterday for the first time since his season-ending injury last year. Sheil Kapadia brings us the money quotes:

Asked what kind of difference he could have made, Peters said, “A big difference. I’m a starter. I’m the number one offensive lineman in the league. So me being out there carries everybody else and makes them play their best. It was a big part, me not being out there, so I’m back now.”

“I’m going to do what I’ve been doing,” Peters said. “Any time I get an offensive line coach, I don’t forget what I learned from the last one. I just take what he gives me and add it on to my game. So it’s not that I’m going to throw away Howard Mudd’s stuff. I’m just going to add on what Coach Stoutland’s going to give me."

“Any player will tell you… you wouldn’t see Tom Brady change his game if he got a new coach. He’s going to be Tom Brady. So same thing I’m going to bring to the table this year. I’m going to play hard. Whatever scheme they give me, I’m going to do it 100 miles an hour.”

I've talked (briefly) with Peters in the locker room and listened to/read a number of quotes from him over the last few years. He's never been the most expressive player, but right now he appears enthusiastic, confident, and motivated. Hopefully this is a positive sign.