Free Agency Strategy for a New Era

Free agency kicks off this week (finally). The Eagles are sitting on over $30 million in cap space, and that number should jump over $40 million once they cut Nnamdi Asomugha. That kind of cap flexibility positions the team as a major buyer. The question, as always, is who is worth buying and at what price. But more broadly, how should the Eagles use this free agency period to set themselves up for long term success?

I don't need to rehash the dangers of free agency. You can draw a straight line from the summer of 2011 to the downfall of Andy Reid. But just because there are dangers doesn't mean the Eagles would be better off ignoring the rash of veterans on the open market. Looking back at the Reid era, we saw how making the right decisions can immensely help your team. Take Jon Runyan for example. He was signed in 2000, only Reid's second offseason. He became one of two bookend tackles that anchored the offense for the next decade.

The Runyan deal obviously looks great in hindsight, but you can see why it was likely to succeed. The team purchased a young player with top talent at a premium position. Those are really the only types of acquisitions I'm rooting for this time around. The Eagles have too many holes to think they can turn this around in a single offseason. Rather than try to plug everything, play the long game.

You obviously want to avoid older players, including stars. Even if the next Asomugha or Babin played well, they wouldn't still be good when the rest of the team is ready to make a leap. Furthermore, I see little benefit in buying up middling talent at this stage. This isn't a Super Bowl team about to make a run. Better to let youngsters battle it out with playing time than give snaps to a mediocre band-aid player.

Overall, and maybe this is common sense, but you should look at every potential acquisition and ask yourself, can this player be an integral part of a deep playoff run in 3 years?​ Actually, that's the same question you should ask about the players on the current roster. If the answer isn't a resounding yes, don't waste your money. Move on, get younger, start over.

​Photo from Getty.

Chip Stew: Why Kelly Will Win Super Bowls In Philadelphia

Oregon blogger Charles Fisher seems as excited to watch Chip Kelly with the Eagles as he was watching his beloved Ducks:

The fans of Philadelphia have no idea what they are about to witness. The greatest sports experience of their lives is about to unfold over the next four years, and they will be delighted with the winning, but confounded by the methods. Football is not supposed to be coached this way, most will declare, but the NFL will be unalterably changed and Eagle fans will be in the eye of one of the greatest transformations the sport has seen. The more discerning football fans of this city will be entertained by more than touchdowns; they will also find themselves caught up in the intellectual fascination of the strategies implemented and the genius of a very special coach named Charles “Chip” Kelly. As he leaves Oregon and comes to Pennsylvania, I wish to offer as a parting gift a glimpse into why he will win Super Bowls at Philadelphia and give you the most total, overall thrills you can imagine from watching a football team.

Like you're not going to read the rest of an article that starts that way.

Putting the Stopwatch on QB Release Times

Fantastic work by Jimmy Kempski (two links in two days)​. He timed every throw by Michael Vick and Nick Foles last year:

The Eagles have a very dynamic set of skill position players. When your QBs are holding the football for 2.87 seconds on average, you're essentially asking the QB to do a large portion of the work in your offense. That is not ideal when you have one aging QB that is in steep decline and another that was a rookie 3rd round pick. The quicker you can get the ball out of your QB's hands and into the hands of the guys who should be making plays, the better the offense will be.

Definitely check out his full breakdown. You can even tell when the Eagles decided it was time to change things up for Vick (as confirmed by All-22 tape).

Drafting on the O-Line

​In addition to a spate of life-altering Microsoft Paint jobs, Jimmy Kempski had a great post on Tuesday that looked at how NFL teams drafted for their offensive lines in recent years. You can see the whole chart at Blogging the bEast, but the Eagles in particular stood out. Over the last five years, they've had more draft picks than any other team: 51. They also tied for the most total offensive linemen picked: 10. Except... only one of those ten picks was in the first three rounds.

And that was Danny Watkins.​

The Past and Future at Defensive Tackle

On Monday, the Eagles parted ways with two veteran defensive tackles. The first, Cullen Jenkins, was a late-career mercenary hire in 2011, part of the free agent splurge that Joe Banner and company thought would put the team over the top. The other, Mike Patterson, was the longest-tenured Eagle, drafted with the team's first pick after the the Super Bowl. Neither cut was surprising; the new regime wants to get younger and less expensive. 

However, the moves do give us an opportunity to step back and assess where the Eagles were coming from after last season and where they're going in the middle of the defensive line. Let's look at some 2012 stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:​

The first two stats, Tackle % and Stop %, are about run defense: per snap, how often did the defensive tackle get in on the play and how often did he cause a stop. As you can see, the young guys led the group. Out of the 52 DTs with the most snaps, Fletcher Cox made the eighth-most tackles per play and the 12th-most stops. And that was only his rookie season. Cedric Thornton wasn't too far behind, posting above average numbers in both categories. While Mike Patterson barely played, the two other veterans Jenkins and Derek Landri logged more run snaps but came up short. Both players ranked toward the bottom in tackles and stops.

Moving over to pass rushing, we see that Jenkins played more of those downs than anyone and was still effective in that role, with the 14th-best Pass Rush Productivity rating (Pressure per play). However, the rookie Cox actually edged him out. In (mostly) Jim Washburn's scheme, Thornton and Landri were also reasonably effective. Both were above average out of the 69 most active pass rushers.

Alright, so that's where the team stood at the end of the season. What does it mean, and where do they go from here? With Patterson's injury keeping him off the field and no dead money on his contract, he was an easy cut. Landri didn't impress on tape or in the stats department and will be allowed to walk as a free agent. Jenkins requires slightly more explanation. Some people have suggested that his experience in the 3-4 would be valuable in 2013. But I'm not sure how much value he would actually have in Billy Davis' defense (or any 3-4). Jenkins still shows flashes as a pass rusher, but he was a liability against the run last year. This isn't someone the Eagles can stick at 5-technique defensive end.

What do the Eagles need from their defensive tackles? With the edge pressure positions likely filled through 2012 holdovers (Brandon Graham, Trent Cole) and the draft, the team needs a dominant inside pass rusher, a lane-clogging nose tackle, and a strongside all-around 3-4 end type. The inside one-gapping defensive tackle is an easy choice. That's Cox's role all the way. From the start he's been a fantastic rusher and run defender, and he should only get better. The nose tackle is a tougher position to fill. Returnee Antonio Dixon has the physical skills to play there, but there will certainly be other candidates brought in.

The question in my mind is Thornton. Jim Washburn liked him because he, like Cox, had inside pass-rushing skills. But breaking down the numbers, Thornton was actually a better run defender in his first extended NFL action. ​At 6'4", 309 lbs, he's a physically-gifted player. You could slot him in as Fletcher Cox's backup easily and hope that enables more pressure. But why not give him a shot at the 3-4 style strongside end? That position values run-stopping first, and Thornton can do that already. When the nose tackle comes off the field on passing downs, he can slide inside and provide interior pressure. With the old guys out of the way, that seems like a move that could maximize current talent in 2013 and beyond.

Photo from Getty.​

The Dion Jordan Express

Dion Jordan, the 6'6", 248 lb. defensive end-linebacker hybrid, ran an unofficial 40-yard dash time of 4.53 seconds. Jordan is an athletic freak like Jason Pierre-Paul who can run as fast as some running backs and wide receivers -- and he comes from Oregon, where Chip Kelly coached him every day. The more you read about Jordan's athleticism and versatility (see Sheil Kapadia's take here), the more he sounds like a perfect fit for Kelly's new hybrid scheme. And just having a guy like that would go a long way toward the laudable goal of getting larger and more athletic across the board.

As Jordan skyrockets up draft charts, he could easily become the top option for the Eagles at number four overall. ​Of course, with his Oregon connection, the rumor mill will churn faster even if he isn't the Eagles' top target. This is one of those stories to watch as we get closer to the draft. If the team seems to be diverting attention away from Jordan to other potential targets, they probably do want him. On the other hand, if Kelly and Howie Roseman let those inevitable reports surge forward at full speed, perhaps they realize that the Jordan rumors could serve as the greatest shield for their true intentions at the top of the draft.

Welcome to the season of lies.

Cut Nnamdi Asomugha Already

The news Friday morning is that the Eagles will meet with Nnamdi Asomugha's agent, Ben Dogra, today to discuss possible restructure of his contract. Sheil Kapadia explains the topic succinctly:

But the key here is that the Eagles owe Asomugha $4 million if they cut him. In other words, Asomugha will have to weigh two options from a financial perspective.

1. Whatever the Eagles offer him over $4 million in a newly re-structured deal.
2. What he thinks he could potentially get from a new team on the open market.

In other words, Asomugha can pocket the $4 million AND make whatever a new team offers.

I don't see much to gain in restructuring Asomugha's contract. Because the Eagles didn't put offsetting language in his contract, they have to pay the aging corner a sunk cost of $4 million no matter what. They can certainly negotiate his total salary down from $15 million, but to make it worthwhile to Asomugha, the amount over $4 million has to be at or above market rate.

There's little upside in keeping Nnamdi through this regime change, let alone paying him a few million (extra) for his services. Time for the team to learn from their mistake, cut their losses, and move on.

I Come To Bury DRC, Not To Praise Him

Good friends, sweet friends, let me not stir you up
To such a sudden flood of mutiny.
They that have done this deed are honorable:
What private griefs they have, alas, I know not,
That made them do it: they are wise and honorable,
And will, no doubt, with reasons answer you.

Like Asante Samuel before him, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie drew a lot of righteous anger during his stay in Philadelphia. Despite natural athletic talents that rival any cornerback in the NFL, Rodgers-Cromartie floats through the game of football. He was an awful tackler even when he tried, and he rarely put in the effort anyway. He gave up many more penalties and long plays than any "Pro Bowl" corner should. In short, despite those tremendous outfits, he was nearly impossible to root for.

To that end, I have little quarrel with the Eagles deciding to let Rodgers-Cromartie walk without applying the franchise tag, as Geoff Mosher reported. If Chip Kelly doesn't want him, nor Howie Roseman (who acquired him in 2011), nor defensive coordinator Billy Davis (who coached DRC in Arizona), who are we to argue? It's not like the cornerback stood out last year. Here are the coverage numbers, from Pro Football Focus. The ranks show their place among the 77 cornerbacks who played at least half of their team's coverage snaps in 2012:

Looking at DRC's stats, you can tell he was no star. Of course, none of the Eagles corners were. Brandon Boykin held his own in the slot, proving himself admirable, if not spectacular in his rookie season. Nnamdi Asomugha continued his long streak of scaring quarterbacks off, posting the fourth-lowest targets per snap in the league. Of course, when they actually did throw his way, Asomugha was awful. He ranked 63rd in completion percentage and dead last in yards per target.

Rodgers-Cromartie doesn't deserve any breaks either. True, his target and completion rates were above average, but his performance declined dramatically over the course of the season as he seemed to lose interest. See the table at right, as DRC's quarterback rating against dropped after a good start to the season through week six.

This is probably the point where we should bring up the event that occured after week six: the firing of Juan Castillo. Remember what the cornerback said when Castillo was kicked out the door?

Most of the players have had fond words regarding Juan Castillo the man, but few have stood up for him as a coach quite like DRC did on Thursday. Rodgers-Cromartie revealed that it was Castillo that transformed him into a press corner, working overtime with him to make sure the 26-year-old went through the change as smoothly as possible.

“No question. He changed my game. He turned me into a press corner,” said Rodgers-Cromartie. “He’s one of the guys that took the time with you, to make you understand the weakness in your game and keep you after practice and make you work on it. This is the NFL, you’re accountable for yourself. Not too many people are going to say, ‘Hey, you need to do this and make sure you do it.’ They tend to let you do it on your own.”

Rodgers-Cromartie is capable of playing at a high level in spurts, but to do so consistently he needs special attention from coaches. That's not something we expect Kelly and his team of 50 assistant coaches (give or take) to have time to do, right? If DRC's performance goes downhill after his favorite coach is fired and the rest of the defense is falling apart, surely we don't want him around any more.

Time to move on to the team's other alternatives. Restructure Asomugha's contract, sort through the free agent bin and draft heap to find another adequate starter. Moving Boykin out of his natural slot position could work. Or perhaps one of the gang of invisible backups is will start showcasing Pro Bowl talent. Whatever the result, letting a young, capable, and inconsistent starting cornerback go for nothing is definitely the right move. There have to be better ways to spend the Eagles' plentiful salary cap space. DRC, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Photo from Getty.