Silver Linings Playbook?

The Eagles lost, again. They blew coverages, again. They gave up turnovers, again. They fired a coach, again. And yet, Sunday night could have been much worse: the Eagles could have won.

Exactly a year ago, this team was in a similar place. At 4-8, their future was bleak. We started looking toward 2013, anticipating the changes in the offseason. But it wasn't to be. The Eagles rattled of four "fool's gold" wins to end the season at 8-8. They didn't fire Andy Reid, or get started on the much-needed reboot. They didn't have a shot at getting a once-in-a-decade talent like Robert Griffin III.

I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, and these losses are painful. But let me tell you, it's better this way. There's nothing to be gained by winning any more, only by losing.

The important thing is evaluating players for 2013 and beyond. And to that end, we're learning a lot:

Nick Foles had by far his best game so far. He made a few questionable throws, but was light years better than last week, when it looked like he desperately wanted to give the ball away. Foles made some tough, accurate throws (especially to Riley Cooper in the end zone) and withstood pressure in his face a few times. These are the types of performances he's going to need to have if he wants to audition for the starting job in 2013.
Speaking of Riley Cooper, he seems to be everywhere these days. A safety blanket for Foles, Cooper's size makes him a real asset in the end zone. He's also a willing and able blocker (although asking him to match up with DeMarcus Ware is probably too much).
The Bryce Brown show continued. In two weeks as the starter, Brown has totaled 347 rushing yards. His size, power, and vision are incredible. If you calculate his "Speed Score", he ranks either near the top of all running backs drafted in 2012 or near the top of all running backs, period (depending on whether you use official pro day 40 time of 4.48 or some reports of 4.37). Sure, there's a major fumbling issue. But that's not something to worry about now. Brown is already producing at a level we never could have imagined. Figure out the details in the offseason.
Another positive development, I think, is the Eagles offensive line. King Dunlap was overmatched on the left side, which surprised exactly no one. But the Jake Scott signing has paid off immensely, as has Dennis Kelly getting more reps at his natural position of right tackle. The communication issues on that side of the line seemed to be almost entirely eliminated this week, and the duo actually coordinated some brutally effective blocks to spring Brown free.
Of course, what does that say about Danny Watkins? Nothing good, I'm afraid.
In other news, the defense is still awful. I don't understand how promoting Todd Bowles, whose coverage schemes were one of the only things working early in the season, could have backfired this spectacularly. It's stunning. You know it's bad when we're apologizing to Juan Castillo.
Also, RIP wide nine. We won't miss you much. Except for Brandon Graham 2.0. You can stay.

Photo from Getty.

The Jason Babin Post-Mortem

Less than 24 hours after the Eagles' latest embarrassing loss, they made a change. They didn't fire Andy Reid or anything major like that. Instead, they cut defensive end Jason Babin.

I'm sure Babin was a malcontent. Plenty of the beat reporters were quick to note what a jerk he was in interviews, and there's not really much reason to cut somebody like this now unless there are off the field circumstances. I know, I know. Andy Reid said he wanted to get more plays for the youngsters. But unless Babin was making a scene, Reid could have just benched him or played him less. Babin played 60 percent of the defensive snaps against Carolina.

Additionally, while Babin isn't playing great, he's (a) not the only one and (b) not playing that poorly. I pulled the Pro Football Focus stats on pass rush productivity (sacks + .75*hits + .75*hurries / total pass rush snaps). Here are the Eagles defensive ends through the first 12 weeks. You can see their PRP number at right, and then the difference between their 2011 figure and 2012 figure, if applicable. Also, 25% Rank refers to their PRP rank compared to the rest of the 4-3 defensive ends with at least a quarter of their team's pass rush snaps.

As you can see, nearly everyone is down on the year. Check out last year's numbers if you want the full comparison, but Babin and Cole were #4 and #5 in the league then. Both have dropped -- although 9th and 14th overall isn't so bad. And Cole actually fell more than Babin. Darryl Tapp and Philip Hunt fell even more (small sample size). Brandon Graham (also SSS) is the only player to improve from last year -- a trend that jives with what we've seen. Note that if Graham had registered this high of a PRP while reaching the threshold for ranking, he would have blown away the second place candidate (Charles Johnson, with 13.7).

What can we take away from this? First, that Babin was never the sole pass rush problem. In fact, he should have been less of a concern in this area than nearly everyone else. However, in addition to probably not being a happy camper willing to sit for a young player, Babin also represents low upside for 2013. While we hope Cole hasn't hit a wall due to age, he's stuck in Philly next year with a contract that makes it more expensive to cut him than to keep him. There was no such reason to keep Babin, though.

Furthermore, Babin's career is delicately intertwined with Jim Washburn and the Wide Nine. Babin was in Philly back in 2009 and did nothing at all. Only with Washburn's scheme did he thrive, and with Washburn likely gone in the purge this offseason, why would anyone want to keep Babin? In that sense, it's not a bad idea to get rid of him now and get a look at the youngsters -- even if right now he's still a better option than most.

Of course, and this is almost a footnote, pass rushing isn't everything. Babin was always suspect against the run, and this year was no different. In 2012, both his stop rate (run tackles that resulted in losses for the offense) and his tackle percentage (tackles and .5*assists / run snaps) were second-worst on the Eagles, ahead of Hunt. Not necessarily a reason to suddenly dump Babin now, but worth noting.

Finally, I might as well show you the pass rush stats for the Eagles defensive tackles as well. Those show similar declines for incumbents Landri and Jenkins:

Photo from Getty.

Quick Hit Thoughts On The Bryce Brown Show

Bryce Brown is kind of a beast. 19 rushes for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns? That's impressive. Fumbles aside, he looks like a real keeper. At a ripped 225 lbs and having run a 4.37 forty yard dash at his pro day, Brown is an amazing athlete who looked the part of a stud NFL back when he got the chance to carry the load. This is why you draft players with upside in the later rounds, not limited effort guys like Kurt Coleman and Brian Rolle.

Speaking of Kurt Coleman, he was involved in at least one of two horrific coverage breakdowns that gifted Carolina touchdowns. Jon Gruden was in shock up in the booth as the Panthers waltzed into the endzone untouched. Here's what Dan Jeremiah, former scout with the Eagles from 2010-2012 said on Twitter:

Kurt Coleman is a good 4th safety. He should be covering kicks and playing in emergency situations. He's not starter quality.

What happened to Todd Bowles? Even with players like Coleman, this defense shouldn't have gotten worse after the firing of Juan Castillo, right?

Nick Foles is probably not the guy. Everyone hoped that the Eagles had lucked into their future starter when Foles lit up the preseason. But he's been exposed right now as a guy that doesn't look at all ready to play in the NFL. (Anyone know where Mike Kafka is?) Foles was lucky he didn't get picked off two or three times during that game. And even when he completed passes, he nearly got his receivers killed by leading them into nasty hits.

Vinny Curry: He's alive!

Alex Henery is a stud? With three more field goals on Monday night, Henery has hit 19 in a row, breaking the franchise record he previously held with David Akers. Of course, he still hasn't attempted a kick longer than 49 yards this year.

Oh, and the Eagles lost. That puts them in line for the fifth overall pick. Somebody put on some limbo music. How low can you go?

Photo from Getty

Head Coach Search Diary: Chip Kelly

Who will replace Andy Reid in 2013? With this season spiraling out of control, that's one of the few relevant questions left to ponder. As such, I hope you'll indulge me in an ongoing series discussing potential top candidates for the Eagles head coaching job.

Who is Chip Kelly?

The University of Oregon head coach, who turned just turned 49, has experienced a rocket ride to the top of NFL wish lists. Kelly grew up in Manchester, New Hampshire. One of four brothers, he played quarterback and ran track in high school, then walked on at the University of New Hampshire. After college (although before he graduated in 1990) Kelly jumped into the coaching ranks. He started back in high school, then bounced around with assistant jobs at Columbia, Johns Hopkins, and his alma mater, before settling at New Hampshire in 1994. Kelly started as a running backs coach there and subsequently became the offensive line coach, where he introduced a zone blocking scheme that helped power running back Jerry Azumah to four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

In 1999, Kelly became the offensive coordinator. He knew he didn't have another talented running back to carry the team's traditional power rushing attack. Instead, using concepts he had learned from other teams running the spread offense, Kelly installed the first version of his now famous speed-based attack. UNH averaged more than 400 yards of total offense in seven of his eight seasons, as Kelly continued to add to and perfect his scheme, often borrowing from other coaches around the country (and even in Canada).

With success came job opportunities. Kelly turned down a job as a Giants quality control coach under Tom Coughlin and interviewed elsewhere. But it wasn't until 2006 that he left UNH for Oregon. According to Phil Knight, then-Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti was trying to install the spread offense, and pushed his coordinator to visit Dan Mullen, then-Urban Meyer's top offensive assistant at Florida. Mullen, however, recommended Kelly as the real expert. After some collaboration, the offensive coordinator at Oregon left for LSU, and Bellotti hired Kelly to take his place.

In two years as offensive coordinator at Oregon, Kelly's offense translated beautifully. The team averaged 40 points and over 475 yards of offense. In 2009, Kelly took over as head coach. After his first game, a loss to Boise State, a fan angrily demanded a refund for his trip to the game. Kelly mailed him a check for $439. Of course, it's been all up from there. In four years, Kelly has posted a ridiculous 45-7 record. Before this season, he masterminded three straight Pac-10/12 championships and BCS bowl appearances.

Last offseason, rumors swirled about Kelly jumping to the NFL. He was reportedly close to a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before he backed out at the last minute. A source close to Kelly told ESPN at the time that the NFL was always at the back of his mind: he was "intrigued by the challenge of coaching at the highest level and not having to deal with parents and the NCAA oversights."

Why Hire Chip Kelly?

The spread offense has slowly infiltrated the NFL over the last decade. Passing long ago overtook rushing as the focal point of offenses and shotgun and multiple wide receiver sets weren't far behind. With better athletes entering the league at quarterback, the read-option may soon join that list. Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, and Colin Kapernick have each already had some degree of success with the spread staple. Meanwhile, one of Kelly's main innovations, emphasizing speed, is now making an appearance in the big leagues. Bill Belichick has consulted with Kelly multiple times, helping to install a more-extensive no-huddle attack in New England.

If you buy the idea that the spread offense will eventually transform the NFL more completely, there's a lot to like about hiring Kelly. Just as Oregon benefited when Bellotti decided to get the expert in house, so might the NFL team that hires Kelly. Perhaps no other candidate is better suited to introducing a "next generation" offense than Kelly. And yet, according to Smart Football's Chris Brown, "Behind the speed, the spread, the Daft Punk helmets, and the flashy uniforms, Oregon ultimately wins with old-fashioned, fundamental, run-it-up-the-gut football."

Kelly runs a tight ship at Oregon, but reports suggest that he would bring along strong teaching and organizational skills as well. An unnamed NFL executive told NFL.com, "He runs the best practices I've ever seen. I would hire him in a second if I ever had the opportunity." The New York Times details how unorthodox his practices are (and includes a note that Jon Gruden seriously considered taking a job as Kelly's offensive coordinator just to learn from him). Kelly also hasn't just been the beneficiary of a few strong recruits. This year, for example, he replaced stars like Darron Thomas and LaMichael James with younger players and kept on chugging.

Why Not Hire Chip Kelly?

As high as the ceiling might be for Kelly if he can adapt his offense to the NFL, the risk is great as well. Stanford largely shut down Oregon's vaunted attack a few weeks ago en route to an upset of Kelly's top ranked team. How did they do it? Simple: by dominating the line of scrimmage with a talented, disciplined front four. There are two ways to read that loss. On one hand, if your offensive line gets beaten that badly, you're unlikely to succeed with any offensive scheme. On the other hand, it might be a preview of the difficulty Kelly would have going up against a defense full of NFL starters with his option attack.

In general, this is the danger of hiring any head coach with a particular scheme loyalty. Look at Andy Reid. On one hand, his west coast offense (and in particular, his ability to teach it to quarterbacks) was one of the biggest reasons for his success. But his adherence to a philosophy of "keep firing" was also a detriment. Kelly's offense is a much bigger departure from the norm. If he struggles, is there a backup plan besides firing him and starting over?

Additionally, there's always a danger importing a coach from college to the NFL. Many of the recent success making that transition (Jim Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Greg Schiano) have had NFL experience. Kelly's resume is especially difficult to project. Not only does he have no experience with the NFL's 53-man roster or dealing with players who are professionals rather than college kids, but he only has a total of four years as head coach, period. Ideally you would recruit Kelly to be a NFL coordinator for a few years first before handing him all the keys, but that just won't be possible.

Final Thoughts

There is no more exciting hire than Kelly. Read up on all his schemes and it's tough not to salivate over that potential. But a lot depends on whether you think he can translate his philosophy to the NFL and adjust to all the other realities that job entails. I still hold reservations on that front, but imagining DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy as cogs in Kelly's offense helps me get over them.

Photo from Getty.

15 Minutes With Fletcher Cox

Eagles rookie defensive tackle Fletcher Cox has been a rare bright spot on a team gone down the tubes. Thanks to his involvement with 2012 Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week program, I got to talk with Cox on the phone Tuesday and ask him a bunch of questions about his first year in Philadelphia. Enjoy!

BS: For many rookies, it takes a year or two to physically match up with guys in the NFL. But that hasn’t seemed to be a problem for you. Why is that?

FC: It’s all about matching up, being coachable and being able to listen to those guys that have been in the league six-plus years, because they’ve been rookies before. They’ve had guys to coach them up and they’ll be able to coach me up on a lot of things I might be doing wrong. So just listening. It’s helped my play a lot. And being physical is part of football. You have to be physical with the guy across from you. If you’re not, that means you’re losing and he’s winning. That’s a big part: being physical and competitive.

BS: Seems like your run defense has been great, sometimes drawing two blockers, but in the pass rush those sacks haven't come quite as easily. Why do think that side is coming on a little bit slower?

FC: Well, I talk to a lot of guys. I told them, man, I need to work on it. A lot of guys know I can play this. Cullen [Jenkins] knows. He always coaching me up on pass rush, he always tells me I can play the run as good as anyone. Just stresses pass rush, pass rush. I just work on that.

BS: Is it something effort-wise that you can just keep pushing, or is it something technique-wise that you can improve?

FC: All of that. And another thing is, it’s hard for a defensive tackle, being inside. It’s hard. He told me when I first got here, it’s hard in this league for defensive tackles to get a whole lot of sacks rather than d-ends. I believed it.

BS: What has Jim Washburn taught you?

FC: Just getting off the ball and getting my hands on the guy across from you. A great get-off, it starts with that. A bad get-off you’re going to have bad play. If you have a good get-off, nine times out of ten you’re making a play or disrupting things. It’s always about getting off first.

BS: Has anything changed for you up front since the defensive coordinator change?

FC: No, nothing has changed. Nothing at all. No different play-calling, nothing like that.

BS: Do you enjoy playing in this one-gap system vs. the two-gap system?

FC: I like one-gap. If I were in that two-gap system I would probably be that defensive end. It’s a whole lot more fun when you don’t have to take on blockers, let linebackers make all the plays. Here, everybody makes plays in this defense. I enjoy it. I got a little taste of it in college and now that’s kind of what I’m used to.

BS: I’ve overheard some inside joking among the defensive linemen about “doing a Mike P.” Could you explain that one to us?

FC: (Deep belly laugh…)

BS: Obviously, we know who that sounds like. What does it refer to?

FC: I never really got the full inside scoop on the Mike P. We always kept… I’m thinking because we were just keeping him up since he wasn’t playing. It’s part of his motivation. But now that he’s playing we’re still on that Mike P. So I don’t know, I can’t even tell you.

BS: This is obviously only your first year, but things haven’t been so great the last few weeks. How do you deal with that? Do you feel any extra pressure?

FC: I don’t feel an attitude change. Everyone’s attitude is to still have a positive attitude. At the end, we’re still fighting. I don’t feel like anyone is going to give up on this team. We’re going to keep fighting, keep punching. We all believe in each other, believe in the coach. We’ll get the job done.

BS: Was there any one thing coming into the NFL that surprised you, that you said ‘wow, I didn’t expect that?’

FC: It’s a business. That’s the biggest thing. You see guys in there one day, the next day they’re gone.

BS: Is there a player on the defensive line you look up to, say you want to be like him?

FC: A lot of guys. You can’t say you want to be like just one. Obviously, you know, he might be good at one thing that you might not be good at. So, it’s not saying you want to be like that person. It’s saying you want to be like them but you want to be better. Not saying he’s not good, because guys who have been in the NFL 8, 9 years, they must be doing something good. You can say I want to do that but I want to find ways to do it better.

BS: When you look to the future, what do you want to do? What do you want to accomplish a few years down the road?

FC: My main goal is to get through year one, through the rookie year. Then get to year two. Then get to year three. Looking ahead is really not something I’ve always done. A lot of guys ask, ‘How long you going to play in the NFL?’ Let me get through year one. And then get to year two. Then get to year three. You set daily goals. You reach that goal every day, then you’re progressing. If you’re looking years from now, you never know what happens.

BS: Do you mean the possibility to get injured, the possibility that coaches change, and that it’s a business?

FC: Exactly. You can’t predict that.

BS: What does Washburn say about that?

FC: Focus on getting better every play, every time you’re on the field, every snap. You’re not on the field long, so play hard, play hard, play hard. You mess up, you can’t replay that play. So go on to the next one.

BS: Back in training camp he said he gave you a riddle to do. I thought that was odd.

FC: (Laughs)

BS: Is that pretty typical, or was that just something he did once?

FC: That’s typical. He used to do it a lot. We’re just joking around, having fun.

BS: He said you were clever for having just Googled the riddle.

FC: Yeah, one of his riddles. I just blew it out of the water. But it was because I heard it before.

BS: You were down in the SEC, which is big time. But what do you think about coming up to the NFL, the fans in Philadelphia? Do you see other guys getting booed and worry about that at all?

FC: (Laughs, long pause…) It’s fun. Just being here and playing in front of all the fans. It’s a lot of people’s dream to play in the NFL. We have our backs against the wall and we’re being challenged to come out and most of all, have fun playing this game. That’s the one thing I can say, I go out there and have fun. I’m always smiling. I’m just being myself.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Photo from Getty.

It's Nice To Be Wanted

Les Bowen:

This is not 1999. Back then, the Eagles' job was not considered attractive, even though the Birds had the second overall pick in that year's draft, mainly because the team was playing and practicing in dilapidated Veterans Stadium, a tough sell to free agents and not a great setup for financial success. In 2012, the Eagles have first-class facilities, a stable, passionate fan base, and a history of recent success.

Lurie, whatever fans think of him, is not a Jerry Jones-level meddler or a guy who might be looking to move the franchise to Los Angeles because he can't sell tickets. He's a solid owner who has shown he's willing to spend money on coaches and players; when Andy Reid needed him to open up the checkbook to entice Jim Washburn and Howard Mudd here, Lurie did that. (Yes, I'm aware those hirings haven't turned out well. The point is, when the head coach has wanted to spend money, Lurie has spent it.)

It's true that if Nick Foles isn't any better than he looked in Washington Sunday, the Eagles are going to have to draft a franchise quarterback, and that's a daunting task. It's also true that teams with head coaching openings tend not to have franchise quarterbacks sitting around. Funny how that works. It's almost like there might be some sort of connection there.

100 percent agree. Even without a franchise QB, the Eagles job should be the top destination for any free agent coach.

Time's Up

I'm not going to crucify Andy Reid for still playing LeSean McCoy late in the game Sunday, even with the score out of reach. His concussion, in hindsight, was avoidable, and Reid's rationale for keeping him in was ridiculous. But benching McCoy would require that your coach give up on the season and start building for 2013.

That's not Reid's job. He's been here for 14 years and is about to be fired. Why should he coach for a future that doesn't exist for him? Why should he care?

I said last week that the Eagles shouldn't wait until after the season to fire Reid. The McCoy injury now sets that idea in sharper context. This season is lost. There's no salvaging it. Even a respectable finish at this point is unlikely and undesirable. All that's left is to play for 2013: lose as many games as possible, evaluate your players for next season, and keep your confirmed stars from serious injury.

It's time for Jeffrey Lurie to step up. He's in control. He needs to fire Reid, promote Marty Mornhinweg to interim head coach, and finish out this sad season with an eye toward the future. Kick-start the coaching search. Evaluate players and plan the cuts you are going to make. Make the decision on what to do with Michael Vick, who's owed $3 million just a few days after the Super Bowl.

There's nothing admirable about letting this play out for the next six weeks. And, as McCoy shows, there's actually a tremendous downside to doing so. Time to move on.

Photo from Getty.

What To Expect From Nick Foles

Seems like a lot of folks have unrealistic expectations for Nick Foles. They're already asking about him attracting a big name coach for next year. That's a long way off. In all likelihood, Foles is not this team's quarterback of the future, despite his stellar preseason play.

In order to become anything resembling the franchise quarterback for the team, Foles is going to have to earn it. He has a de facto tryout process starting right now. And even good play now won't guarantee anything going forward. At best, he's playing for a chance to be the starting quarterback in 2013, a chance to put off the team's need to draft a new quarterback early.

If he can do that, great. There are going to plenty of holes on the roster next year, and if the team has already stumbled on to a capable QB, that's one less. But no one should be expecting that outcome.

A better comparison for the moment will be to Michael Vick. Below I charted the numbers for the five rookie quarterbacks this year. Overall, they've matched or exceeded Vick at pretty much every turn:

So can we expect Foles to match this kind of performance? Hard to tell. He, like Vick, has more offensive weapons to exploit than many of his fellow rookies. On the other hand, there's probably no worse offensive line in the league.

Let's remember these numbers when we're watching Foles over the next few weeks. I expect Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg will give their rookie ample opportunity to succeed within a new game plan. Given how poorly Vick has shown, Foles could exceed him. But there are still going to be mistakes, and plenty of them. Again, keep your expectations low.

Photo from Getty.