It's Nice To Be Wanted

Les Bowen:

This is not 1999. Back then, the Eagles' job was not considered attractive, even though the Birds had the second overall pick in that year's draft, mainly because the team was playing and practicing in dilapidated Veterans Stadium, a tough sell to free agents and not a great setup for financial success. In 2012, the Eagles have first-class facilities, a stable, passionate fan base, and a history of recent success.

Lurie, whatever fans think of him, is not a Jerry Jones-level meddler or a guy who might be looking to move the franchise to Los Angeles because he can't sell tickets. He's a solid owner who has shown he's willing to spend money on coaches and players; when Andy Reid needed him to open up the checkbook to entice Jim Washburn and Howard Mudd here, Lurie did that. (Yes, I'm aware those hirings haven't turned out well. The point is, when the head coach has wanted to spend money, Lurie has spent it.)

It's true that if Nick Foles isn't any better than he looked in Washington Sunday, the Eagles are going to have to draft a franchise quarterback, and that's a daunting task. It's also true that teams with head coaching openings tend not to have franchise quarterbacks sitting around. Funny how that works. It's almost like there might be some sort of connection there.

100 percent agree. Even without a franchise QB, the Eagles job should be the top destination for any free agent coach.

Time's Up

I'm not going to crucify Andy Reid for still playing LeSean McCoy late in the game Sunday, even with the score out of reach. His concussion, in hindsight, was avoidable, and Reid's rationale for keeping him in was ridiculous. But benching McCoy would require that your coach give up on the season and start building for 2013.

That's not Reid's job. He's been here for 14 years and is about to be fired. Why should he coach for a future that doesn't exist for him? Why should he care?

I said last week that the Eagles shouldn't wait until after the season to fire Reid. The McCoy injury now sets that idea in sharper context. This season is lost. There's no salvaging it. Even a respectable finish at this point is unlikely and undesirable. All that's left is to play for 2013: lose as many games as possible, evaluate your players for next season, and keep your confirmed stars from serious injury.

It's time for Jeffrey Lurie to step up. He's in control. He needs to fire Reid, promote Marty Mornhinweg to interim head coach, and finish out this sad season with an eye toward the future. Kick-start the coaching search. Evaluate players and plan the cuts you are going to make. Make the decision on what to do with Michael Vick, who's owed $3 million just a few days after the Super Bowl.

There's nothing admirable about letting this play out for the next six weeks. And, as McCoy shows, there's actually a tremendous downside to doing so. Time to move on.

Photo from Getty.

What To Expect From Nick Foles

Seems like a lot of folks have unrealistic expectations for Nick Foles. They're already asking about him attracting a big name coach for next year. That's a long way off. In all likelihood, Foles is not this team's quarterback of the future, despite his stellar preseason play.

In order to become anything resembling the franchise quarterback for the team, Foles is going to have to earn it. He has a de facto tryout process starting right now. And even good play now won't guarantee anything going forward. At best, he's playing for a chance to be the starting quarterback in 2013, a chance to put off the team's need to draft a new quarterback early.

If he can do that, great. There are going to plenty of holes on the roster next year, and if the team has already stumbled on to a capable QB, that's one less. But no one should be expecting that outcome.

A better comparison for the moment will be to Michael Vick. Below I charted the numbers for the five rookie quarterbacks this year. Overall, they've matched or exceeded Vick at pretty much every turn:

So can we expect Foles to match this kind of performance? Hard to tell. He, like Vick, has more offensive weapons to exploit than many of his fellow rookies. On the other hand, there's probably no worse offensive line in the league.

Let's remember these numbers when we're watching Foles over the next few weeks. I expect Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg will give their rookie ample opportunity to succeed within a new game plan. Given how poorly Vick has shown, Foles could exceed him. But there are still going to be mistakes, and plenty of them. Again, keep your expectations low.

Photo from Getty.

This Is A Three-Year Job

I was trying to think of a worst case scenario for the Eagles reboot in 2013. And besides some sort of "one more year" scenario, I think the worst thing that could happen to this team is for the front office to decide they really only need to reload rather than rebuild.

There will certainly be the temptation to avoid the hard choices that come with committing to a full purge. Even with Andy Reid gone, Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie may look at the large complement of veteran players that they've shelled out big money for and decide to hire someone promising a quick fix. Whether or not the hire would actually be him, Jon Gruden provides the inspiration for this selection. He went into Tampa Bay and in a year turned the Bucs from consistent contenders to Super Bowl winners. (Honestly, the outgoing coach in that scenario, Tony Dungy, makes a lot of sense in this role as well.)

On paper that sounds great. Why waste a year or two rebuilding the team when you can hire someone who promises to get you right back into the hunt? But to go this route would be to ignore the large structural problems this team is loaded with. You would be giving the Titanic a new coat of paint rather than addressing the larger concerns.

What are those concerns? How about a team that has far too many players in critical positions who are on the downhill slope of their careers. Players like Nnamdi Asomugha, who Todd Bowles is now blitzing on third down, and Michael Vick, who isn't getting any better. There's also an over-reliance on rookies and second-year players, some of whom are talented but all are inexperienced. There's a complete lack of depth at, really, every position, most notably offensive line.

Reid built the most sustained period of success this franchise has ever seen, but he didn't do it overnight. He came in with a three-year plan, and he executed. He cleaned house, picked the right quarterback, made a few key free agent signings but mostly built through the draft. This Eagles squad has been without that hard reboot for years -- and delaying it will only prolong the inevitable.

Just another reason to start rooting for losses...

Photo From Getty.

Unpredictable, But Still Revealing

Sheil Kapadia:

Remember the whole “We’re not going to be predictable” storyline that got repeated after Juan Castillo was fired? Well, Bowles lived up to it here. I’d say blitzing Asomugha, your $60M corner, on third-and-long qualifies.

Another great All-22 breakdown from Sheil. Blitzing Nnamdi certainly isn't predictable -- although it also doesn't seem to have worked very well. And any time you're willingly taking your top corner and putting him on the line of scrimmage, well, he's probably not your top corner any more.

Which Eagles Are Keepers For 2013?

I hope we're all on board with the fact that there's going to be regime change in 2013. To that end, I'm pretty disinterested in the results this year — excepting what we can learn that will help the Eagles move forward into the next era. A large part of that is discerning which players are expendable and which are the cornerstones for a new foundation.

When Andy Reid arrived in Philadelphia in 1999, he made those hard choices. He picked the players who would make the transition. That included stalwarts like Tra Thomas, Duce Staley, Brian Dawkins, Jeremiah Trotter, Troy Vincent, and Bobby Taylor. They helped form the backbone of a team that would reach four straight NFC championship games. Most of the rest of the roster, however, was gutted and rebuilt through the draft and a few key free agent signings.

As of the middle of the 2012 season, this is how I analyze the roster for the future:

Building Blocks: Players who the next coach should build the new era around. Use a scheme that plays to their strengths.

LeSean McCoy. Shady should be the crutch for the Eagles' new quarterback.
DeSean Jackson. New contract has re-energized him. Hasn't dropped a pass all year.
Brent Celek. Turns 28 in January. Has taken a lot of hits, but keeps on getting up.
Fletcher Cox. Still adjusting to the NFL, but early results look great.
Mychal Kendricks. See above.
DeMeco Ryans. Glad to be wrong about him. Has provided leadership and consistent play in the middle of the defense. Only turns 29 in July.

Keepers, With A Caveat: Players who could be building blocks, but we need to see a little bit more. In other words, hold that contract extension for the moment.

Jason Kelce. Potential as rookie starter, but need to see recovery from injury. Also, may only fit certain schemes.
Brandon Boykin. Upside less than other defensive rookies, but has held his own so far.
Nate Allen. May have reached ceiling of "solid player." Worth something in NFL, but how much?
Jeremy Maclin. Lots of talent, but Reggie Brown-esque career arc so far. Lackadaisical effort, annoying complainer. Might want more money than he's worth.
Alex Henery. Still haven't seen that huge leg we were promised. But young and accurate from short distances.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Top talent and style, but questionable dedication. Can be shut-down guy outside when he wants to be.

Tryout Candidates: May have shown some flashes, but nothing special yet. Have to play their way onto the roster in 2013.

Nick Foles. Keep your expectations low. Up to him to show he deserves a shot at starting job.
Bryce Brown. Has all the athleticism to be a NFL back. Needs sophomore jump.
Stanley Havili. Better than anticipated this year in limited action.
Riley Cooper. Special teams performer, but rarely shows up on offense.
Damaris Johnson. Exciting jitterbug who needs to play with more smarts.
Clay Harbor. Looks like a fine backup tight end. That's not worth much.
Brandon Graham. Great pass rush in limited snaps this year. Hasn't lived up to 1st round pick status.
Philip Hunt. Great preseason, disappeared when the lights came on.
Cedric Thornton. Clearly some potential. Can he perform in a different scheme?
Vinny Curry. Rookie hasn't gotten on to the field.
Akeem Jordan. Backup linebacker, special teams starter.
Brandon Hughes. Played OK for a backup. That's probably his ceiling.
Kurt Coleman: Perfect third safety. Limitations (athletic and otherwise) make him a below average starter.
Colt Anderson: Kick coverage star looks lost on defense.

The Oldies. These players are riding close to the expiration date. May be starter-quality now, but will they be when the rest of the team is ready to compete again?

Michael Vick. Will be 33 before next season. We've seen the limits of his game. Time to find a new franchise QB.
Jason Avant. Turns 30 in April. Numbers are down this year.
Jason Peters. Turns 31 in January and recovering from major injury. Elite athlete could shore up LT for a few years, or he could be done.
Todd Herremans. Will also be returning from injury. At 30, his play dipped this year.
Evan Mathis. Best remaining lineman for the Eagles doesn't mean much. 31 years old.
Jason Babin. Production fell off a cliff. Will be 33 in May.
Trent Cole. After contract extension, only has 1.5 sacks so far in his age 30 season.
Mike Patterson. It's amazing he's even playing after brain surgery.
Cullen Jenkins. Salary cut last offseason. Little reason to keep him this time.
Nnamdi Asomugha. Can't cover deep. Period.
Jon Dorenbos. He is only the long snapper, so I guess this isn't such a problem. Free agent in 2013, though.

Get Out Of Town: I actively don't want to see these players next year.

Demetress Bell. No words necessary.
King Dunlap. Allergic to finishing blocks.
Danny Watkins. Maybe I should have put him in the "Oldies" category.
Dallas Reynolds. Not good enough to be a backup center.
Derek Landri. Very inconsistent player, never performed at all outside the Wide Nine.
Jamar Chaney. My feelings on this subject are well documented.
Mat McBriar. How hard is it to find a real punter?

Don't Care: I feel nothing toward or against these players. At most they get a tryout.

Trent Edwards. Third QB at best.
Dion Lewis. Hasn't shown much of anything worth hanging on to.
Chris Polk. I don't know why he's on the roster.
Dennis Kelly. Looks about as bad as Watkins.
Nathan Menkin. Who?
Matt Tennant. See above.
David Sims. Yeah.
Darryl Tapp. Middling veteran backup. Nothing more.
Casey Matthews. No redeemable qualities.
Curtis Marsh. 29 defensive snaps in one and a half seasons.

Photo from Getty.

It's Time To Fire Andy Reid

The Eagles have lost five straight games. That feat is a first for the team in the Andy Reid era, and it tells me one thing: it's time to fire the coach, now.

I don't see any reason that this team should play out the string pretending to be ignorant of the ending. Reid is a lame duck, and everyone knows it. He's going to be gone at the end of the season, even if they somehow rattle off a few wins to make things look respectable. Why drag out the inevitable? Let's combat possible counterarguments.

1. After 14 years, Reid deserves a chance to finish the season. I do think that Reid has deserved all the respect Jeff Lurie can give him after his years of service to this organization. But how is it better to let him twist in the wind for the next 7 games, fighting for a job he knows he can't keep? Some people have suggested giving him the choice to leave now or stay, but I find that even more insulting. If you know you're going to make the move after the season, might as well cut that cord now.

2. Firing Reid will lose the locker room. By all accounts the Eagles players still love Reid and want him to stay. Too bad. It's not like having them on his side has done any wonders for this team so far. And as it becomes increasingly clear that Reid's ship is sinking, do we expect the players to stay on board? No. There have already been signs that the locker room is collapsing with Reid.

3. Marty Mornhinweg (the logical replacement) isn't going to turn this around. Probably not, but Reid isn't either. Maybe you get lucky and experience a respectable dead-cat bounce like the one Todd Bowles helped create last year with the Dolphins. But if not, who cares? Losing may not actually be a bad thing right now. And either way, at least you're being upfront and straight with your coaches and players. No more delusion about the reckoning in store over the offseason.

There aren't many goals that this organization should be striving for in the remaining games. A respectable end would be nice for the fans. More losses would be beneficial for the 2013 draft. Seeing Nick Foles in extended action will help make a more informed decision about his future (snap judgment: he looks like an overmatched rookie). Evaluate the remaining players to see who needs to go and who might be a building block for the next generation.

None of these tasks require keeping Reid around to play out the rest of the season. Let him move on and spend time with his family before taking a new job in 2013. Let Howie Roseman and Jeff Lurie kickstart their search for a new head coach. And let's all move on.

Photo from Getty.

'He Reminds Me Of Brad Johnson'

Jon Gruden is not on the top of my list for the next Eagles head coach. Still, interesting to hear what he has to say about Nick Foles (whom he volunteered as the next rookie quarterback likely to start). From the LA Times' Sam Farmer:

I had [Philadelphia's] Nick Foles in the preseason against New England. Michael Vick got hurt on the fifth or sixth play, and Foles went the distance, on the road in Foxborough. If you like prototype pocket passers with some functional mobility and a tremendous amount of toughness, Foles is interesting.

What really impressed me in the preseason was they weren't running generic formations. They ran about 30 different formations out of about eight different personnel groupings in successive plays. So I see him recognizing coverages. I see him getting to second and third receivers, just like you'd want a quarterback to do in that system, and I love his NFL size. He reminds me a lot of Brad Johnson, from his football character to his ability to decipher a lot quickly, and we won a championship with Brad.

(via Tim McManus)