The Eagles offensive line didn't have a fun time early in Sunday's game against the Giants. In fact, they were getting beaten at nearly every turn. Michael Vick was taking hits, LeSean McCoy couldn't find holes. It wasn't pretty.
Dallas Reynolds and Demetress Bell played especially poorly, but the scariest thing is that they weren't the only culprits. The whole line was getting beat, sometimes one-on-one and other times because of communication breakdowns. Check out a bunch of the plays below:
Going into the Giants game, Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg knew they had to change something, Through the first three games, Michael Vick had been inconsistent at best: holding on to the ball too long, taking big hits, making ill-advised passes, and turning the ball over 11 times. They had to simplify the game for Vick, give him quicker reads — especially against the Giants' fearsome pass rush.
And the coaches did exactly that. I went through and highlighted 5 plays from the All-22 coaches tape that showed the same concept over and over: a package of short routes in the middle of the field, slants and buttonhooks and crossing routes. In each play, I circled the Eagles receivers and marked Vick's target in yellow. As you will see, Vick always has 2 or 3 easy reads right in the middle.
Rather than waiting for longer routes to develop or even having to anticipate players getting open, all Vick had to do on these routes was take a three-step drop and look in the short middle of the field. He had an choice of simple targets, and could choose the one that was most open. Pitch and catch.
Check them out below:
A Step Deeper On Deep Passing
Last year, Michael Vick threw the ball 20 yards or more downfield 13.7% of the time. He had a 52% completion percentage on those throws, registering 3 TDs and 4 INTs.
This year, so far, Vick's attempts are down slightly to 11% and his completion percentage has also dropped to 41%. However, he's already thrown 3 TDs and has 0 INTs.
Jason Avant: Going Downhill?
It seems to me that the Eagles have a problem at wide receiver. Not necessarily with their starters, but with their depth. Jason Avant has been a reliable slot receiver for a few years, providing good hands in traffic across the middle. But he has never proven himself capable of playing on the outside in a pinch, and his stats through four weeks suggest that he may not be getting open in the middle anymore either.
Anything through only four weeks is going to be a small sample size, so take this with the appropriate grain of salt. But given Michael Vick's trouble connecting with receivers down the field, and Jeremy Maclin's injury trouble, one might expect Avant to become a bigger part of the offense. Instead, he's disappeared. While his catch rate has been great and his yards per attempt and catch are within his career norms, Avant's targets are way down in 2012.
Either Vick is having trouble finding his slot receiver, or he's simply not getting open.
Ode To The Blockers
Demetress Bell needs help, and he's getting it from Brent Celek. The Eagles starting tight end is tied for the lead in the NFL in pass blocking snaps. He has pass blocked 47 times and run routes 121 times.
In other news, Stanley Havili played more snaps (28) against the Giants than Owen Schmitt played in any game last year.
Brandon Graham: The Eagles Best Pass Rusher?
One player under tremendous pressure in the preseason was Brandon Graham, the Eagles' former first round pick. And so far this season (other than Vinny Curry), Graham has gotten the fewest total snaps of any defensive lineman. But (small sample size aside), he's actually the only Eagles pass rusher doing better than last year.
Below is a table of Pass Rush Productivity, Pro Football Focus's combined stat that adds sacks plus hits * .75 plus hurries * .75 and divides the total by the number of pass rushes the player has attempted.
Graham's PRP is huge: in fact, he leads the league on a percentage basis. Obviously, the small number of snaps still makes it a very preliminary result, but at least you can say that he has been tremendously productive in his limited reps. Note that Trent Cole and Jason Babin led the NFL in PRP last year among defensive ends with at least 25% of their team's snaps. They scored 14.9% and 13.7%, respectively. Both are down so far this year.
DeSean On Pace For A Career Year
80 receptions, 1332 yards would smash Jackson's previous career highs. Paying the man was a good idea.
Playoffs? Don't Talk About Playoffs
Football Outsiders has the Eagles with a 55% chance to reach the playoffs and a 1.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. You taking those odds right now?
Photo from Getty.
The Eagles cut Brian Rolle this morning and replaced him with linebacker Adrian Moten. Tim McManus talked to Rolle, and got some interesting quotes:
“I felt like I didn’t get the chance. People saw how productive I was last year. Why I am I not in there this year?” he said.
Um, I hate to break it to you, but the Eagles gave you the starting job and you couldn't hold on to it. Also interesting what Rolle said about "there’s been tension the last couple weeks." Tough to say what that's about, but this move is almost certainly about the atrocious special teams play. Rolle was not doing a good enough impression of Akeem Jordan. Eagles linebackers should keep in mind that there are only two roster-worthy types at their position: potential starters and special teams standouts. Be neither at your own peril (looking at you, Casey).
Also, for what it's worth, Jamar Chaney got a big "Way to go" from Howie Roseman in the locker room after Sunday's game.
I was sure the Eagles were going to lose.
When they had to settle for a field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. When the Giants kick returner brought out the ensuing kickoff for yet another long gain. When, on 4th and 1, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was charged with pass interference. When, on the following 3rd and 10, Nnamdi Asomugha drew a second pass interference call. Even when the Giants' Ramses Barden mauled Asomugha for the same call going the other way, there was little hope Lawrence Tynes would miss the 54-yard field goal attempt.
And then he did! ... Only Andy Reid, in all his glory, punched his gift horse in the mouth by calling a timeout. Surely, on the second attempt, Tynes would put it in. But then, in one of the most improbable events in an improbable season, he missed again, and the Eagles won.
I think I'm still in shock.
Let's get to a few notes on the game, and from the locker room after:
Isn't it amazing how much better Michael Vick looks when you establish a run game for him? In the second half, when the Eagles fed LeSean McCoy 17 times, Vick went 8 of 11 for 109 yards, plus he scrambled 3 times for another 30. The Giants, bowed by McCoy's dazzling cutbacks, weren't able to get the same pressure on Vick, and he could sit in the pocket more comfortably.
One of the most amazing things about the Eagles approach to the run game yesterday was how they stuck with it despite poor returns early. In the first half McCoy and Bryce Brown had a combined 8 carries for 1 yard. Add in Damaris Johnson's one carry that lost a yard and you get a big zero in the rushing column. Nine times out of ten, Reid and Marty Mornhinweg would have used that as an excuse to abandon the run. Not last night, and it paid off.
The margin of victory was so close that one turnover certainly would have doomed the Eagles, but they finally kept the ball under wraps. That was huge.
DRC was funny in the locker room. He talked about the 4th and 1 play in which he let Victor Cruz get by him for a 30 yard gain: "He gave me the Ooh-Op-Ooh." When the laughs subsided and he was asked to elaborate, he said, "I go one way, he went the other." All in good fun, especially when DRC picked off Eli Manning in the end zone on the next play. He told me that in film study they saw that Eli often stares down Cruz, and if he's covered, will immediately go to his second option, typically the tight end. DRC's job on the play was to spy on Manning, and it worked beautifully.
I also talked to Jason Babin for a bit, because I'm somewhat fascinated by the Eagles stand-up blitz look. One would think that the defense has shown enough film that offenses would be able to shut it down. Babin described the "infinite possibilities" out of that look, and how the offense really can't anticipate where he or his fellow blitzers will end up.
What's going on in the kickoff coverage? Might be as simple as Akeem Jordan and Colt Anderson, the team's two best special teamers, being inactive. But Bobby April has to do a better job regardless.
Post game, Reid said it doesn't feel so good to try to freeze the kicker and then be "surrounded by 66,000 people who want to rip your throat out." If Tynes makes that second field goal attempt, I think there might have been a riot on Broad Street. But nice to finally be on the right end of some field goal luck.
Continuing a trend, the Eagles defense only allowed 17 points despite poor field position. Still, there are serious holes in this defense. Especially down at the red zone, the coordinated coverage between Brandon Boykin in the slot and the linebackers needs work. Receivers running slants and underneath crossing routes seem to be the real problem. Additionally, the combination of Nnamdi Asomugha's lack of speed and Kurt Coleman's quick bite on play action is deadly. At the end if the day, Nnamdi's not getting any younger, so Coleman has to have better awareness.
On a related note, Rodgers-Cromartie (still) doesn't seem too pleased with zone coverage. He talked about how he likes lining up in man coverage, facing the offense head-on. DRC suggested that a lot of the coverage problems they have come from switching out of that base defense: "Things can get a little confusing."
One final thing. When talking with Cullen Jenkins, Babin stopped by to tell his line-buddy that he did "3 Mike P's" in the game. When pressed for the meaning of that expression, Babin called it an inside joke and would only say it meant "everything and nothing." Derek Landri wouldn't elaborate beyond "throwing everything at them." When asked if a "Mike P" could possibly be named after anyone in particular, both players slyly demurred.
Photo from Getty.
I'm not sure I've ever dreaded an Eagles-Giants game as much as this one.
It's not that I don't think the Eagles have a good chance to win. Despite some flaws (see my post here and Derek's more extensive discussion here), the defense looks better than it has in years. The offense, for the first time in a long time, is where the main trouble lies, and just one or two fewer turnovers would help out there immensely. I also think there's at least a reasonable chance that Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg will adjust their play calling. Running the ball only five times in the first half last week was inexcusable, no matter what they said after the fact.
I might turn out to be a sucker once more, hoping Andy can change his ways. But there is at least some precedent. Last year against the Giants, LeSean McCoy got an extra workload. He averaged only 17.4 rushes in his other starts, and 23.5 in his two against the cross-Jersey rivals. A heavy dose of Shady is surely the only way Michael Vick is going to stay upright. I shudder to think what Jason Pierre-Paul and his merry gang are going to do if they're keying off on pass plays every down, against this offensive line.
Still, even if the Eagles aren't firing on all cylinders, I'm under no delusions that the Super Bowl-winning Giants are some sort of powerhouse. The Eagles beat them last November with Vince Young at the controls. That has to count for something.
So, yes, I think they can win. But I'm dreading this game because I'm dreading a loss. The Eagles have played three games. Results have certainly been mixed. Two one-point wins, with similar problems but opposite post-game reactions. Then the Arizona disaster. Now they're entering division play, when everything really starts to matter, against a rival no one wants to lose to.
I know it's early in the season, but you can feel it in the air, can't you? If the Eagles lose on Sunday the city will turn on them. Vick and Reid will bear the brunt of it yet again. And that might be reasonable and justified. But it certainly won't be fun. On paper, there will be time to repair the damage. 2-2 is no impossible feat to climb to get to the playoffs. But will it matter?
The next four games after Sunday are at Pittsburgh, home against Detroit and Atlanta, then at New Orleans. None of those will be easy. The Eagles could easily lose two or three of those. But I think our perception of that stretch will be heavily influenced by what happens against the Giants this week. If the Eagles win their first NFC East game, a mixed bag going forward will be tolerated. If not...
If not, I'm not sure both Vick and Reid will still be around by week ten, when the Cowboys come back to town. And if they are, they might be wishing they weren't. It won't be fun any more.
So yeah. Am I overreacting? Probably. Will everyone else? Almost certainly. Hard to look forward to that.
Photo from Getty.
Yesterday I talked about the Eagles defense against the Cardinals (and specifically Larry Fitzgerald). Today, let's look at a few other odds and ends from that game.
First up: Michael Vick has lost a step or two. The other day I went back and watched some tape from his glorious 2010 resurrection season. A year after coming back from prison, the athletic wonder looked as fast as ever. His stop-starts baffled defenders and his top speed rivaled most any player in the league, at least to my eyes. Whether he was still at the sub-4.4 forty of his youth I can't say, but he looked close.
But that Vick isn't the one who took the field last Sunday. I highlighted multiple plays below where you can see that he just doesn't have the same speed. In the first play, Vick starts to scramble and has only one player to beat to the edge. 2010 Vick almost certainly would have gotten the first down here. Instead, (4.66-forty) linebacker Daryl Washington chased him out of bounds after a gain of just a few yards:
Below is the second play, Vick's 20 yard scramble in the closing minute of the first half. He splits two defenders and has acres of space in front of him. 2010 Vick might have scored on this play, or at least forced a goal line tackle by one of the deep defensive backs. 2012 Vick was chased down from behind — again by the linebacker Washington:
Vick is still plenty athletic. He's easily faster than 95 percent of quarterbacks in the NFL. But he's lost that extra dimension of speed that used to help him escape a few more rushers and shoot by a few more would-be tacklers. His escape ability is noteworthy, but we may not be able to classify it as "dangerous" any more. That's obviously not a positive development.
In other news, I have one theory as to why Andy Reid only called five run plays in the first half (other than his usual reluctance): he trusted the makeshift offensive line even less to run block than to pass block. Below, I put a diagram of the Eagles first run play. It went for no gain because all three defenders circled in red beat their blocks. Todd Herremans, Evan Mathis, and Danny Watkins were the culprits:
On the other side, I really liked the play below. The Cardinals were showing blitz by the cornerback in the slot — so much so that they actually leave Jason Avant uncovered initially. One solution to this obvious blitz would be to throw a quick route to Avant, but the Eagles (by luck?) called something just as good. McCoy ran the ball off tackle to that side, and both Brent Celek and Avant blocked down hard, giving McCoy lots of room and netting an easy nine yards. It was also just fun to see Celek cream the cornerback:
Finally, I want to highlight two plays by defensive tackle Cedric Thornton. With Fletcher Cox sidelined for part of the game with a migraine, Thornton got plenty of snaps. He's still an inconsistent player, but by far his best move is that powerful bull rush. On the first play, he pushed the guard right back into the quarterback's face as Brandon Graham beat his blocker off the edge. On the second, Thornton's bull rush busted up a run that was supposed to go through the middle. Well done.
There's a logical way to cover Larry Fitzgerald: in man coverage, with safety help. That's not what the Eagles did. Time to break down this down using the All-22 coaches film.
Let's start with the first three Cardinals pass plays, each of which went for a first down. In the first one, Fitzgerald lines up to the bottom. To call him a decoy would probably be generous. What we're really looking at is another classic example of "Putting Nnamdi Asomugha in a zone."
Next play. This time we're going to Fitzgerald. He's in the slot, opposite Boykin. The post route by the tight end inside of him is going to draw Mychal Kendricks and Nate Allen away, leaving a one-on-one matchup against the rookie corner.
Two plays later: Fitzgerald is a decoy again. He comes across the formation pre-snap, pulling the linebackers to his side.
Later in the game, here's another time the Cardinals isolate Fitzgerald on Boykin:
The Cardinals kept picking on Boykin, even when he didn't line up across from Fitzgerald:
To be fair to Boykin, I doubt Asomugha was supposed to let Fitzgerald run clean to the inside on that route. One of the things you notice with Asomugha is that he's rarely the cause of major coverage breakdowns. However, he doesn't seem particularly interested in working extra hard to cover up other defenders' mistakes either — whether it's on this play, where he doesn't even try to run inside to tackle Fitz, or on the touchdown catch (See Chris Brown's thorough examination of that one). Asomugha is a limited player these days, and sometimes it looks like he would rather make sure everyone knows it's not his fault than actually go 110% to make up for his own deficiencies.
In other, non-Fitzgerald news, it would be nice if the defense didn't miss tackles like it's 2011. Yes, I know this play was called back, but still:
More to come from the All-22 tomorrow.
