Roster Competition: The 53-Man Gauntlet

Tonight, we'll see the Eagles suit up and play for the first time this year. Preseason games are a limited and often useless tool for judging the team's prospects, but we can certainly start speculating as to what the team might look like come week one. Some esteemed writers have already started to release their early roster projections. I'm not at that prediction point yet, but it's still worth analyzing where we're at in terms of the 53-man squad.

When you look at the roster right now, you can separate the competition into three categories. There are the locks, players who have roster spots sewn up, barring injury. Then there are the position battles, where we know there is a backup spot to be claimed. Finally, there are the discretionary spots, in which players compete across the team for those final extra jobs that round out the roster.

Let's get the locks out of the way first:

QB (3) - Vick, Kafka, Foles
RB (2) - McCoy, Lewis
TE (2) - Celek, Harbor
WR (5) - Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Cooper, McNutt
OL (7) - Bell, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins, Herremans, Dunlap, Vandervelde
DE (4) - Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry
DT (3) - Jenkins, Cox, Landri (Patterson to PUP)
LB (5) - Kendricks, Ryans, Rolle, Chaney, Matthews
CB (4) - Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Boykin, Marsh
S (3) - Allen, Coleman, Jarrett
ST (2) - Henery, Dorenbos

That's 40 out of 53 spots that I have in the bag right now. Yes, even Jarrett. He seems to be doing enough to keep around, thankfully.

Where do we go from here? The position battles, i.e where two or more players are competing for at least one assured job after final cuts (favorites in italics):

RB (1) - Brown vs. Polk
FB (1) - Havili vs. Igwenagu vs. free agent TBD
WR/RET (1) - Hall vs. Johnson
C/G (1) - Reynolds vs. Gibson vs. free agent TBD
G/T (1) - Kelly vs. Washington vs. free agent TBD
DE (1) - Tapp vs. Hunt
DT (1) - Dixon vs. Thornton
LB (1) - Jordan vs. Clayton
CB (1) - Hanson vs. Hughes
S (1) - Atogwe vs. Anderson (potential PUP candidate)
ST (1) - McBriar vs. Henry

That's 11 more spots taken, representing all the major spots of competition to keep an eye on during tonight's game. Then the coaches will have two more spots to play with and use at their discretion. That's where all our expert predictions will really be tested. Which of the above position battles will end with two players that deserve to stay?

The Eagles could keep an extra offensive lineman. They could go heavy on the defensive front, especially with current injuries to three starters. Cliff Harris could sneak on to the roster at cornerback if the team is worried he won't make it to the practice squad. They have Brett Brackett if they want to carry three tight ends. And if Colt Anderson doesn't make it back in time for week one, does Bobby April get to keep a different special teams ace?

So many possibilities. Only 53 jobs.

Photo from Getty.

Following a Legend

Paul Domowitch continues his road trip visiting former Eagles. This time he checked in on Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott:

"Following somebody who has had a lot of success, the expectations are almost unfair," [Panthers Head Coach Ron] Rivera said. "When I was playing for the Bears, Vince Tobin came in and replaced Buddy after he left to become the Eagles' head coach. Vince never got the respect he deserved because it was Buddy this, Buddy that. But when you look at some of the things Vince did, you say, ‘Wow, that's pretty doggone good.'

“So when I look at Sean's situation — and Andy and I talked about it — just the expectation level was so great, Andy thought this would be a great opportunity for Sean to come down here and reinvent who he is."

Our memories of McDermott's convoluted schemes are certainly tempered by Juan Castillo's disastrous coaching job last year. I wonder how much following Jim Johnson really doomed the former Eagles coordinator. Certainly we know that he struggled to command respect from veteran players.

Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Better

Tommy Lawlor wonders if Dion Lewis might be the guy to break Marty Mornhinweg's constant dependence on a single running back:

Dion Lewis could be the RB to change all of this. The key is that he’s not just a runner. Dion, based on this summer, looks like he could be a weapon in the passing game as well. He must show that he can be counted on as a blocker. For those who might compare him to Ryan Moats because both guys are small, don’t. Lewis is already an infinitely better blocker than Moats was.

I agree with Tommy that the Eagles need to spread the load around where possible. Running backs just don't last long in the NFL, and the more you can rest them, the healthier they'll be. However, the problem with Lewis is that he's essentially a (very) poor man's version of McCoy. Even if he's as good as recent reports out of training camp suggest, Lewis will always be worse than McCoy at pretty much every phase of the game. Thus, having him replace McCoy is always a loss for the offense.

I think one of the reasons Correll Buckhalter was a good complement to Brian Westbrook is that he could do many of the same things, but had a different style and different strengths. It's (similar to) a comparative advantage problem.

Checking Back with the President

Paul Domowitch took a trip down to Atlanta to see his good friend and erstwhile foil Asante Samuel, who seems to be enjoying himself with his new team. It's hard not to love Samuel, who was always a straight shooter (if not as often a sure tackler) in Philadelphia.

Talking about his dissatisfaction with the Eagles front office last year, Asante explained how quickly he fell out of favor:

"When they first traded for DRC, I got a call from upstairs and everybody was excited. 'We got DRC. You and him are going to be great together.' Then, no sooner did they hang up then I got another call telling me they had signed Nnamdi and that people were calling and wanting to trade for me. First, they said, 'You’re not up for trade. Those are just rumors.' But at the end of the day, it was all a lie. They did have a trade on the table (at the October trade deadline). But it broke down at the last minute. So we just kind of played the season out, seeing how it went."

A year ago around this time I was praising Howie Roseman and company for pulling off the rapid series of stunning offseason moves. Only later did it become clear that despite all the planning they did to take advantage of the post-lockout free agency, the Eagles decision-makers had gotten too greedy. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Samuel might have made a great one-two punch at cornerback. But adding Nnamdi Asomugha caused as many problems as it solved — especially after they botched an attempt to trade Samuel.

It was stunning mismanagement. You can't take one of the most critical members of the team and first praise him, then try to trade him, then lie and try to piece the eggshell back together again. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has (rightfully) received plenty of flak, but at least when he pulled off the "trade for Halladay, trade away Lee" deals he was decisive. He didn't yank one of his star pitchers in and out of limbo.

Not only did that failure anger Samuel, it ruined his trade value. As a make-up gift, Reid let his Pro Bowl cornerback have some say in the trade decision:

"Coach Reid and I sat down and considered the options," he said. "He let me pick and choose where I wanted to go. This was the No. 1 place I wanted to go. There were a couple of other teams interested. But ultimately, this is where I wanted to be."

We know (or at least heard rumors) that Reid did the same thing for Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb. I'm not sure how practical it is for every player, but Reid's collaborative approach helps everyone leave the negotiating table happy — a skill the team has sorely lacked in matters like this.

Photo from Getty.

Breakout? Maybe in a Different Uniform

Continuing the theme of hyping up fringe linebackers, John Breitenbach called Keenan Clayton a breakout candidate today:

Clayton still has a ways to go if he wants to see any meaningful action on the Eagle's defense. Still he's shown improvement from year 1 to year 2 and if the same happens as we move into year 3, he could surprise some people. He's buried on the depth chart at the moment but one injury could give him the chance he needs. Clayton also tends to show up in pre-season games (as he did in his rookie year) and he should thrive against third stringers. The Oklahoma product at least deserves a chance to show what he can do in the nickel, where he has the potential to be better than the rest of the Eagles' linebackers.

My take: Clayton seems to be above average in coverage, which is why he was used almost exclusively in the dime packages (1 LB, 6 DBs) last year. But he's still just a tweener: too slow to be a safety, too small to be an every-down linebacker. If the Eagles believe that Casey Matthews, Jamar Chaney, and Brian Rolle have starting potential, Clayton will have to beat out Akeem Jordan for the special teams LB job just to make the team.

All in the Family

There have been a number of poorly-written columns about yesterday's tragedy at Lehigh. This one by Reuben Frank is not one of those:

So why would the Eagles practice Sunday, just minutes after Garrett Reid’s death was announced? Why would Reid insist on being on the sideline Thursday night for the preseason opener against the Steelers?

Because for Andy Reid, the definition of family is a broad one. It covers both his blood relatives and his players. His kids, his team. They’re all part of the same family.

Shaking Things Up

Today was a sad day in Eagles land, with the surprise death of Andy Reid's oldest son Garrett. Obviously all of our thoughts are with the Reid family as they deal with this tragedy.

There's no particularly good way to transition from that to general site changes. To be brief: things are new around here. Let me know what you think about the cleaner design and if you encounter any bugs or other problems. At the very least, hopefully the server issues will be over for the foreseeable future.

What Would a New Contract for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Look Like?

I’ve opined before on giving Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie a contract extension, going as far as to call it an offseason priority. With Nnamdi Asomugha aging and only unproven recent draftees behind him, locking up Rodgers-Cromartie would go a long way to preserve continuity in the defensive backfield. Obviously, whether you want to extend him also stems from your impression of him as a player. If you’ve been following along, you know that I think DRC’s stellar play on the outside at the end of 2011 after he languished in the slot for most of the year suggests big things could be in store for him. (And reports out of training camp are stellar so far.)

But unless Howie Roseman is discussing things behind the scenes during training camp, it doesn’t look like he agrees, with either Rodgers-Cromartie’s value or his skill. Let’s go deeper and see what the difference in money might be based on letting DRC play out this contract year. Here’s a table of recent top cornerback contracts given out for players in his age range. Financial details are on the right and on the field stats are on the left (Pro Bowl appearances, games started, yards per attempt, interceptions):

Looking at the finances first, you can see there are different measures for large contracts. The total millions is a nice overall number, although it tends to overstate the “real” value of the deal (with fake years at the end). The yearly figure and guarantee may give a more accurate accounting of the contract.

It’s interesting to look at how the deals were structured and how they turned out. DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson got massive contracts that turned out to be bad for their teams—although you can see why the Redskins and Falcons, respectively, were willing to dish out that kind of dough. For example, Hall was young, even for this group, and already had two Pro Bowl appearances and 22 interceptions.

The following year, Antonio “Headcase” Cromartie received a smaller contract than his number stats warranted because of his off the field problems. Leon Hall got a slightly larger and slightly longer deal. Johnathan Joseph made out like a bandit, with nearly $10 million a year and $24 million guaranteed.

This offseason, Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan both just bested Joseph’s contract. Eric Wright has had an up-and-down career, most recently in Detroit, and he signed a more modest five-year free agent deal. Meanwhile, Lardarius Webb, who had a stellar 2011 season with the Ravens, got the largest total amount. That figure is inflated by an extra year though; as you can see the guarantee is less than some of his peers.

So, where does Rodgers-Cromartie fit in? At 26 years old, he has fewer games started than anyone other than Webb, although his other stats are better than average. He has a low yards per attempt figure and a high interception rate. Even with his atrocious play in the slot last season, 2011 was much more in line with his first two seasons in the league. DRC’s 2010 letdown that prompted him to be traded might have been an outlier.

The question becomes what Rodgers-Cromartie would command in today’s market. Given his perceived inconsistency, lack of physicality, and a deficit of experience compare to his peers, DRC probably wouldn’t be in line for a Carr or Cortland-sized contract. Wright’s deal this year and Hall’s in 2011 look like better comparables: perhaps 5 years, $40 million, $16 million guaranteed.

Let’s say though, that Rodgers-Cromartie plays out this season, putting up his career averages, and enters the market in 2012. At that point, with 60 games started, 7.2 yards per attempt against, and 16 or so interceptions, he could make the case that he’s better than Carr or Finnegan. DRC would probably received $25 million guaranteed and upwards of $10 million per year on the open market—a substantial upgrade from his current value.

By not re-signing his second cornerback now, Roseman risks the price going up next year. He may be making one of a few calculated bets, though. Perhaps he thinks DRC simply isn’t worth a long term contract. He’s betting that Rodger-Cromartie will show that he’s not worth top money. Or Howie’s looking at the other backups and assuming that someone like Curtis Marsh will be able to slide in a year from now. Or maybe Roseman is willing to use the franchise tag (at enormous one-year cost) as necessary to keep DRC on hand in 2013.

Looking at the state of the defensive backfield and the market for cornerbacks as it stands now, I would buy into DRC long term. The potential rewards, both financially and on the field, are great, and the downside to not paying him could be severe next offseason. Get it done.

Photo from Getty.