The Decision: Cornerback

The roster cuts at cornerback are particularly interesting because there's such a mish-mash of styles, experience levels, and upside among the group. Unlike at linebacker, for example, where most of the decision comes down to the last spot, there are three or four different potential combinations of players the Eagles could end up with.

Let's start, where else, with the starters. Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie make a formidable pair of corners. I'm optimistic, especially about DRC, now that he's in his normal spot on the outside. Hopefully Juan Castillo will use Asomugha better this year, and he'll show some of his Pro Bowl form.

The only question with Nnamdi is his age. I ran a screen for cornerbacks who, since 1990, started at least 14 games in their age 30 season. That's a set that roughly represents Asomugha's health and skill set as of last year. After that season, the 59 cornerbacks I tracked (excluding active players) started an average of 35 more games in the rest of their career — 11 at age 31, 8.5 at 32, 6 at 33, and declining further beyond that. Note that such numbers include games started at safety, where many older corners finish their careers.

While we don't yet know how Asomugha will hold up going forward, both in skill and health, this may be a good guide for estimating his longevity: don't count on him being a starting-caliber corner beyond another year or two. That affects how you decide who to cut around him.

After the starters, there are two young players who will definitely make the team: Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin. But how far along they are along will greatly impact the final open spots. Ideally, Marsh and Boykin would be the third and fourth cornerbacks, with the former outside and the latter taking over the slot. However, it's not at all clear that they are ready for such responsibility.

That leaves a big question mark next to the name of Joselio Hanson. Going into training camp, Hanson was on the outside looking in. He was cut last year (before being re-signed to a lower salary) and then the team drafted his replacement in Boykin. Plus, last year the Eagles performed rather miserably in the dime defense — the formation he was most often involved in. All that said, it doesn't seem that Boykin has taken hold of the position just yet. Hanson is the only remaining veteran on the depth chart. Can the Eagle afford to ditch him just yet?

If the team stays with only five cornerbacks, Brandon Hughes is the player who could make it instead of Hanson. Hughes is a solid special teams player and has more experience than either Marsh or Boykin, making him a potentially worthwhile addition. On the other hand, his upside isn't as high as either of the other two players, so if he isn't an upgrade on them now, there may not be a spot for him.

Finally, there's Cliff Harris. Before getting injured, the undrafted free agent made headlines in training camp grabbing interceptions left and right. Depending on his return to the field, Harris might be someone you stash as a sixth cornerback instead of risking that he wouldn't make it to the practice squad.

Predicting cornerback this year is tough because there are so many unknown factors. Most importantly, we don't know how much Todd Bowles and the rest of the defensive coaches trust Marsh and Boykin, nor how much they want to replace Hanson. Reading the tea leaves on the latter, it doesn't seem like they want to keep the veteran corner around. But I personally haven't seen anything that yet that would make me comfortable with the younger guys getting significant playing time.

The easiest way to project cuts is to be safe, and assume that the team goes heavy on cornerbacks with 6 players, keeping Hanson and Hughes. Harris will probably make it to the practice squad. That's what I'm leaning toward right now, although tomorrow I may be back on the bandwagon for ditching Hanson. Note that the youngsters could make the decision a lot easier by playing well in the next two preseason games.

Photo from Getty.

Game Rewind: Preseason Week One

​Jake Louden, blogger at Eagles Fan 4 Life and on Twitter @EaglesJake, made some great videos where he highlighted every play of a few key Eagles in last week's first preseason game. Let's go through them with some notes.

​Here's the first on​e, starting with King Dunlap:

​Overall, my impression of Dunlap is mixed, as he's playing mostly against second-teamers. In pass protection, he doesn't let up much of any pressure, although the Steelers rarely seem to put much energy into attacking.

His run blocking was suspect. Especially compared to Jason Peters rampaging through the second level, blowing up defenders, Dunlap looks passive ​out there. He rarely finished blocks to the whistle and often finds himself in the middle of the field just half-heartedly looking for a defender close enough to block. If Dunlap gets his long arms on someone, that person probably isn't getting by him, but too often he just seems to let guys go.

​Also, the rest of the second-team offensive line does not inspire confidence. Not that I'm expecting much from rookies like Dennis Kelly, but Julian Vandervelde? Yikes. He gets beat and/or knocked on his butt multiple times.

​A look back at DeMeco Ryans's combine numbers shows that he was never a particularly fast or strong guy. Today, he certainly doesn't look like the best athlete on the field. He's not a dominating presence in the middle. In fact, there are a number of times where I expected Ryans to get to the ball faster or get off a block that he's tied up on. 

Still, it's easy to see that he's going to be a major upgrade in the middle for the Eagles. Comparing Dunlap to Peters may not have helped, but Ryans gets points for looking so much better than Jamar Chaney. His biggest asset seems to be diagnosing plays quickly and knowing where he needs to get to. Ryans doesn't always make it there in time, but you can see he's knows what hole he's supposed to plug or which receiver is his responsibility. Those simple things will go a long way.

Finally, we get to the rookie Mychal Kendricks. ​On second viewing, Kendricks looked just as good to me as he did live. He's fast and can be a sure tackler in space. Not everything is clicking yet, but he looks a mile ahead of where Casey Matthews was a year ago. I hope he's soaking in the lessons from Ryans next to him. Kendricks's physical talent plus Ryans's veteran acumen could make a powerful combination.

Breakout? Maybe in a Different Uniform

Continuing the theme of hyping up fringe linebackers, John Breitenbach called Keenan Clayton a breakout candidate today:

Clayton still has a ways to go if he wants to see any meaningful action on the Eagle's defense. Still he's shown improvement from year 1 to year 2 and if the same happens as we move into year 3, he could surprise some people. He's buried on the depth chart at the moment but one injury could give him the chance he needs. Clayton also tends to show up in pre-season games (as he did in his rookie year) and he should thrive against third stringers. The Oklahoma product at least deserves a chance to show what he can do in the nickel, where he has the potential to be better than the rest of the Eagles' linebackers.

My take: Clayton seems to be above average in coverage, which is why he was used almost exclusively in the dime packages (1 LB, 6 DBs) last year. But he's still just a tweener: too slow to be a safety, too small to be an every-down linebacker. If the Eagles believe that Casey Matthews, Jamar Chaney, and Brian Rolle have starting potential, Clayton will have to beat out Akeem Jordan for the special teams LB job just to make the team.

What Would a New Contract for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Look Like?

I’ve opined before on giving Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie a contract extension, going as far as to call it an offseason priority. With Nnamdi Asomugha aging and only unproven recent draftees behind him, locking up Rodgers-Cromartie would go a long way to preserve continuity in the defensive backfield. Obviously, whether you want to extend him also stems from your impression of him as a player. If you’ve been following along, you know that I think DRC’s stellar play on the outside at the end of 2011 after he languished in the slot for most of the year suggests big things could be in store for him. (And reports out of training camp are stellar so far.)

But unless Howie Roseman is discussing things behind the scenes during training camp, it doesn’t look like he agrees, with either Rodgers-Cromartie’s value or his skill. Let’s go deeper and see what the difference in money might be based on letting DRC play out this contract year. Here’s a table of recent top cornerback contracts given out for players in his age range. Financial details are on the right and on the field stats are on the left (Pro Bowl appearances, games started, yards per attempt, interceptions):

​Looking at the finances first, you can see there are different measures for large contracts. The total millions is a nice overall number, although it tends to overstate the “real” value of the deal (with fake years at the end). The yearly figure and guarantee may give a more accurate accounting of the contract.

It’s interesting to look at how the deals were structured and how they turned out. DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson got massive contracts that turned out to be bad for their teams—although you can see why the Redskins and Falcons, respectively, were willing to dish out that kind of dough. For example, Hall was young, even for this group, and already had two Pro Bowl appearances and 22 interceptions.

The following year, Antonio “Headcase” Cromartie received a smaller contract than his number stats warranted because of his off the field problems. Leon Hall got a slightly larger and slightly longer deal. Johnathan Joseph made out like a bandit, with nearly $10 million a year and $24 million guaranteed.

This offseason, Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan both just bested Joseph’s contract. Eric Wright has had an up-and-down career, most recently in Detroit, and he signed a more modest five-year free agent deal. Meanwhile, Lardarius Webb, who had a stellar 2011 season with the Ravens, got the largest total amount. That figure is inflated by an extra year though; as you can see the guarantee is less than some of his peers.

So, where does Rodgers-Cromartie fit in? At 26 years old, he has fewer games started than anyone other than Webb, although his other stats are better than average. He has a low yards per attempt figure and a high interception rate. Even with his atrocious play in the slot last season, 2011 was much more in line with his first two seasons in the league. DRC’s 2010 letdown that prompted him to be traded might have been an outlier.

The question becomes what Rodgers-Cromartie would command in today’s market. Given his perceived inconsistency, lack of physicality, and a deficit of experience compare to his peers, DRC probably wouldn’t be in line for a Carr or Cortland-sized contract. Wright’s deal this year and Hall’s in 2011 look like better comparables: perhaps 5 years, $40 million, $16 million guaranteed.

Let’s say though, that Rodgers-Cromartie plays out this season, putting up his career averages, and enters the market in 2012. At that point, with 60 games started, 7.2 yards per attempt against, and 16 or so interceptions, he could make the case that he’s better than Carr or Finnegan. DRC would probably received $25 million guaranteed and upwards of $10 million per year on the open market—a substantial upgrade from his current value.

By not re-signing his second cornerback now, Roseman risks the price going up next year. He may be making one of a few calculated bets, though. Perhaps he thinks DRC simply isn’t worth a long term contract. He’s betting that Rodger-Cromartie will show that he’s not worth top money. Or Howie’s looking at the other backups and assuming that someone like Curtis Marsh will be able to slide in a year from now. Or maybe Roseman is willing to use the franchise tag (at enormous one-year cost) as necessary to keep DRC on hand in 2013.

Looking at the state of the defensive backfield and the market for cornerbacks as it stands now, I would buy into DRC long term. The potential rewards, both financially and on the field, are great, and the downside to not paying him could be severe next offseason. Get it done.

Photo from Getty.

Akeem Jordan, the Forgotten Man?

​John Breitenbach wrote a post on BGN about the underrated abilities of Akeem Jordan. He goes through all the phases of the game with Pro Football Focus stats and includes nice game shots. Here’s his final analysis:

I’m not trying to make Jordan out to be some sort of superstar but it’s a shame he receives such little respect from Eagle fans. He was undrafted (and went to a tiny school) but he’s worked his way to become at the very least a serviceable NFL starter. At just 26, who’s to say he won’t get better? If you’re looking for someone to challenge Kendricks for the strongside spot, pay less attention to Jamar Chaney, and more to #56.

I’m not going to make Breitenbach’s argument into a straw man; it’s a reasonable and measured conclusion. Maybe Jordan is better than we think. However, I think there are three main rebuttal points:

1. Jordan isn’t as good in coverage as those numbers illustrate. Breitenbach places Jordan’s coverage stats (09-11) side-by-side with Lance Briggs, and Jordan looks good. Certainly his completion percentage is lower (and therefore better). But, for one thing, Breitenbach doesn’t mention that the sample sizes are quite different. Jordan had only 372 coverage snaps during those three seasons, compared to 607 for Briggs just last year. When you look at targets per coverage snap (i.e. how often he was picked on), Jordan suddenly looks subpar.
2. I don’t think there’s much evidence, based on Breitenbach’s numbers, that tackling is one of Jordan’s “greatest strengths.” He missed 9.2% of his tackles from 09-11, which would have been good enough for 20th last year among 4-3 outside linebackers with at least 25% of their team’s snaps. That actually does make him one of the better tacklers on the Eagles LB corps, but that’s not a whole lot to brag about.
3. Finally, the most damning evidence against Jordan is simply that he hasn’t been able to hold a starting job—even when his competition has been so bad. Breitenbach mentions the atrocious Ernie Sims. Moise Fokou, Casey Matthews, Jamar Chaney… the list goes on and on of the guys coaches played before Jordan. He got more snaps after Fokou was benched, then placed on injured reserve in the last month of 2011, but that wasn’t a vote of confidence as much as Plan Z.

Jordan is a great special teams player and he’s fine as a backup. But I doubt any good defense considers Akeem for a starting role.

DeMeco Ryans, Two-Down Linebacker?

I was surprised last week to hear that, at least initially, DeMeco Ryans wasn’t playing as a three-down linebacker. In practices, he was coming out in the nickel formation for Jamar Chaney, an inconsistent player at best.

What happened to the versatile Pro Bowler that we were promised when Ryans was brought in from Houston? I wonder if Reid and company were ever being truthful whether said those things. Although Ryans was undervalued in the Texans’ 3-4 scheme, indications were that he was taken off the field on passing downs partially because he had lost a step after his 2010 Achillies injury.

I went back to look at the stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus, and I didn’t find any smoking gun. Here are the numbers:

​You can clearly see the effect of taking Ryans out of the game on passing downs. His total snaps decreased substantially from his last healthy season (2009) and the percentage of pass snaps he was in for, as a portion of his playing time, declined by a rather large 10 percent. But that just tells us what we already know: that Houston didn’t trust Ryans as much in pass coverage.

Was that concern warranted? That’s harder to tell. On one hand, Ryans was targeted more in pass coverage than in any other year from 2008 on. That may suggest that players he was supposed to cover we’re open more often. The total yards per catch average against him was also the highest on recorded, meaning he gave up bigger plays. On the other hand, the completion percentage of players he covered moved in the opposite direction.

It remains to be seen whether Ryans is actually a coverage liability in the Eagles defense. But the ramifications from this move will be large. Obviously, on the field it’s not ideal. Having to sub out the middle linebacker removes flexibility and creates match-up issues that opponents can exploit. It also raises questions about about both the Ryans’ long term future with the Eagles and the team’s overall linebacker strategy.

As a two-down player in an increasingly pass-heavy NFL, Ryans would be much less valuable—especially at his salary. Perhaps his acquisition wasn’t the sea change in linebacker policy that we thought. After all, a fourth round pick for Ryans isn’t as different as we would like from the fifth round pick it took to get Ernie “Shark in the Water” Sims. His salary jumps to $6.6 million in 2013, and continues at basically that level through 2015. It seem unlikely he would make that much in Philly as a two-down player.

Let me stress, finally, that Ryans can still be a major upgrade at linebacker in 2012—even if he does have to come out on passing downs. Just having a reliable veteran leader in the middle to plug some of the gaping run holes would be a big deal. We just may have to temper our expectations for Ryans beyond that role.

Photo from Getty.

Relive Victor Cruz Torching Nnamdi Asomugha

Matt Bowen identifies the offensive concepts and corresponding coverage in Victor Cruz’s 28-yard touchdown reception in the Giants’ week three win over the Eagles. It’s informative, although he oddly doesn’t come to any real conclusions besides that it was a great play by Cruz:

The way I see it, Giants QB Eli Manning puts this ball up for his WR to go make the play. As I said above, this is the right call from a defensive perspective and the Eagles are in the proper position to steal one. However, Cruz attacks the ball and plays the pass at the highest point.

It might be the right defensive call in the abstract. But when you have Nnamdi Asomugha, one of the best man-cover corners in the NFL, and you put him in zone coverage (sharing responsibility with walking liability Jarrad Page), it seems suboptimal. Of course, Asomugha sure didn’t show that he understands the concept of “ball skills” either.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Cornerback

What the Eagles did: Cornerback was a mess last year. We’ve been over that. You can’t just throw three Pro Bowlers with different styles together and expect things to work out of the box. Thus, the inevitable happened: Asante Samuel was shipped out of town.

What the loss of Samuel means to this defense is tough to gauge. On one hand, he’s still a great cornerback. While his interceptions were down in 2011, other stats showed that Asante was as good as ever. On the other hand, his limited style of play clearly forced running mates Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie into suboptimal positions. Asomugha has historically shined when he locks on one of the opposing wide receivers, and Rodgers-Cromartie’s closing speed makes him a better fit on the outside.

Now they can play the way they want, and it’s up to new secondary coach Todd Bowles to make them comfortable. So far the talk has been that the coverages are simpler, which should be a relief to fans. The numbers (re-posted below) show that Nnamdi and DRC can both be very effective starters — as long as they’re playing in the right spots.

Another downside to losing Samuel, however, is that the depth behind the Eagles two starters is relatively murky. Who are the backups on the outside if either player gets hurt? Curtis Marsh, second-year player out of Utah State, is athletically gifted, but is a relative newcomer to the cornerback position. He played a grand total of 13 snaps last season, and still needs to shed the “project” label. Brandon Hughes is entering his fourth year, but hasn’t proven he can even be Dimitri Patterson yet. Then you have a wasted 2010 fourth-round pick in Trevard Lindley, as well as undrafted free agent and apparent head case Cliff Harris.

Inside, in the slot, we have an interesting battle shaping up. Joselio Hanson, the designated nickel corner in this defense since 2007, I believe, was cut last year before being re-signed at a lower price. Clearly the Eagles think he’s replaceable. And they brought in his replacement, or at least heir apparant, in Brandon Boykin, the fourth-round pick. Boykin has all the physical skills except height going for him, and he already gained some experience in the slot at Georgia.

What I would have done: The way Howie Roseman handled the Samuel trade situation was appalling. A player of that caliber should have been worth more than a seventh-round pick, but by the time he pulled the trigger the Eagles had no leverage. That said, he had backed himself into a corner (haha). Trading Samuel was the only possible solution to a problem Roseman created in the first place.

Way-too-early prediction: Based on Rodgers-Cromartie’s stats above, I’m optimisic that he will be a solid outside cornerback this year. Actually, it seems prudent to lock up DRC at this point in order to grab a little bit of discount. And I’m only slightly worried about Asomugha losing a step in 2012. He should still have at least another good year or two left in the tank.

The slot battle is Boykin’s to lose, and I doubt he will. After that, it would be nice to see one of the other young corners step up. Bowles coached bigger, athletic corners in Miami. Hopefully he can use that experience to mold Marsh into an NFL player.

Photo from Getty.