Making Sense of the Matt Barkley Pick

There's been a lot of hand-wringing over the Matt Barkley pick and what it means for the Eagles, what it means for the other quarterbacks on the roster, and what it implies about Chip Kelly's offense. I've gone through all those same thoughts in my head over the last few days, trying to make sense of the whole thing.

My initial reaction was mostly shock. I had been operating under specific assumptions regarding Kelly's needs at quarterback -- based on his own actions -- and the Barkley selection didn't fit neatly into any of them. Tim McManus said it best:

Kelly has stated on numerous occasions that he is not married to a specific scheme and will cater to his players’ strengths. But a golden rule when reporting on a team is to watch what they do, not what they say. Up until this point, everything Kelly had done was pro-mobile quarterback. He made the decision to keep Michael Vick. Signed G.J. Kinne and Dennis Dixon. Released Trent Edwards. Nick Foles was on an island. And when word got out that the Kelly had already implemented the read-option, you wondered how Foles could compete and survive.

Eventually you get beyond that shock, though, and start to rationalize why Kelly would like Barkley. Maybe we were wrong about what he really wants for his NFL offense. Maybe he really values "repetitive accuracy" more than anything else. While Barkley was undoubtedly a value pick (the team passed over him 3 times), Kelly says the USC quarterback was in their top 50 players overall. This isn't the same as Mike Kafka being selected explicitly as a backup (also see: the Dennis Dixon signing). In fact, we have reason to believe that Barkley is more desirable to Kelly than either Michael Vick or Nick Foles -- both of whom he inherited.

This is where Chris Brown's interesting piece over at Grantland comes in. He posits that Kelly might not be trying to bring his Oregon offense to Philly, but rather import the New England Patriots offense:

In addition to drafting Barkley, among the major moves Kelly made was signing tight end James Casey in free agency and drafting Stanford tight end Zach Ertz, two movable chess pieces to go along with Philadelphia’s other multipurpose tight end, Brent Celek. These moves might be an indication that Kelly’s focus is shifting from the roster of speedy running backs and dual-threat quarterbacks he had at Oregon. Instead, Philadelphia may be looking to mesh the fleet-footed receivers already on its roster with a group of dynamic tight ends. As part of that group, Kelly is likely hoping Barkley can be an extremely accurate, intelligent, intangible-heavy quarterback who can efficiently operate his lightning-fast no huddle.

Brown's take is smart and logical. If Barkley does win the starting job, the offense would certainly cater more around his strengths and the read-option would be relegated to a side show. But the one thing that's tough for me to accept is that there was that much foresight in the selection of a fourth round player. To suggest that the Barkley pick -- which Kelly himself admits he didn't expect to make -- speaks some broader truth about the planned direction of the offense may be reading too much into it.  

This is where Kelly's own words come in. Check out what he said on WIP the other day:

Obviously if you can get a quarterback that has great size, is really smart, can run, and do all those things, then yeah, let's go get him. But you don't always get the ideal guy, where in every category he's a ten. You have to value some categories more than other categories. There have been some unbelievable athletes that have played quarterback both at the collegiate level and the NFL, that can throw the ball and run 4.5 and do all those other things. But really, for a quarterback you have to be a great decision-maker first and foremost. Now, if the fact that we can run -- I think of that as a bonus, not as a prerequisite. 

This is the most complete answer I've ever seen Kelly give about the quarterback position. He likes to throw around phrases like, "We'll start whichever QB can get us to the endzone." But here he is talking about his ideal quarterback -- big, smart, fast, good decision-maker. These are traits that most teams look for, but Kelly admits that it's tough to get all of them. There's an implicit assertion herein that Barkley is not the whole package, the way someone like EJ Manuel could have been.

Kelly talks about trade-offs, and I think that's a better way to look at the Barkley pick -- as well as his stance on quarterbacks in general. Neither Barkley nor Foles is his ideal starter, so any assumption (like Brown's) that rests on a plan to abandon the read-option is flawed. However, it's clear that Vick's poor decision-making and ball skills put him at a disadvantage as well. Kelly will evaluate the trade-offs with each player and make a choice based on that. If Vick's experience, athleticism, and arm strength trump the strengths of his non-mobile brethren, he'll start and the read-option will certainly be a part of the offense. Or it will go the other way.

Shifting your offense to match your quarterback's strength isn't some foreign concept. Andy Reid went through a bunch of dissimilar quarterbacks over the years: Donovan McNabb, AJ Feeley, Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, Nick Foles. He had a base system predicated on the West Coast offense, but play calling adapted based on who was taking the snaps. Kelly's offense will the be the same way. Doubtless he will start with spread concepts, translating Oregon ideas for use with playmakers like DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Bryce Brown. His no-huddle offense (and its unique play-relay system) will be a major factor, especially coupled with versatile weapons that allow the Eagles to take what the opponent gives them. 

After those core strategies (a "specific scheme" I believe Kelly is married to), the rest is detail. Without (yet) an ideal all-purpose quarterback like Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck, the offense must make trade-offs. An up-tempo spread can be effective with the read-option or without, with Barkley or Vick. The question isn't who fits best into some mythical version of Kelly's offense -- it's who is the best, period. And we won't know that until training camp.

Photo from Getty.

Putting the Stopwatch on QB Release Times

Fantastic work by Jimmy Kempski (two links in two days). He timed every throw by Michael Vick and Nick Foles last year:

The Eagles have a very dynamic set of skill position players. When your QBs are holding the football for 2.87 seconds on average, you're essentially asking the QB to do a large portion of the work in your offense. That is not ideal when you have one aging QB that is in steep decline and another that was a rookie 3rd round pick. The quicker you can get the ball out of your QB's hands and into the hands of the guys who should be making plays, the better the offense will be.

Definitely check out his full breakdown. You can even tell when the Eagles decided it was time to change things up for Vick (as confirmed by All-22 tape).

Will Andy Reid Trade For Nick Foles?

In scouting for possible locations that Nick Foles might end up, if the Eagles were to trade him, it's impossible to overlook the Kansas City Chiefs. Andy Reid knows Foles well, and presumably likes him. Moreover, he has stepped into a situation with a hole at franchise quarterback and few good draft prospects to fill it. Mike Garafolo of the USA Today reported Thursday night that a source told him Reid is considering a trade:

The Chiefs and new coach Andy Reid are interested in acquiring Foles if he becomes available, according to a person informed of the team's thinking. The person, who spoke to USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity because the Chiefs haven't discussed their thoughts publicly, said the team is working on plans to add a quarterback and considers Foles a possibility.

Kelly has said Foles and Michael Vick will compete for the starting job despite their differences in style. The person informed of the Chiefs' plans said the Eagles have not told Kansas City that Foles is available.

These kind of anonymous reports are often hard to trace. It seems to come from someone hooked in to the Chiefs, but why would they leak information like that? The Eagles benefit much more.

Chip Kelly Wants a Running Quarterback, and We Should Too

This whole quarterback debate has gotten all gummed up with false narratives. There are a lot of people out there, especially Nick Foles fans, who cling to Chip Kelly's words about how he doesn't need a running quarterback, and that he can adapt his offense to whatever personnel he has at his disposal. Here's Kelly on that topic at his first Eagles press conference:

There’s perception and then there’s reality. The perception is we run our quarterback all the time and this is what we do. The reality is that’s not the case. One of the best qualities in a quarterback is durability and a lot of that has to do with play calling. Our quarterback is not going to get the direct snap like Dick Kazmaier did at Princeton in the single wing and have him run it 25 times, I can tell you that... That’s not the determining factor for me and I’m not married to whether we have to do this. I’m an equal opportunity scorer, and we’ll score any way we can. It’s all based on what our personnel is. I’m not married to try to take a quarterback who can’t run and make him run, and a quarterback who can’t throw and make him throw. It’s putting your players in the best position you can to be successful, and how you can score points.

That's what we wanted Kelly to say, and he lived up to expectations. You never want your offensive-minded head coach to be unable to work with players who don't fit into his perfect mold. That's a recipe for disaster. Kelly can build an offense around a more stationary quarterback. In Darron Thomas's last season at Oregon, he only ran the ball 4.3 times per game. Before that, Kelly designed a pass-first offense at New Hampshire to best utilize Ricky Santos. If he had Tom Brady or Peyton Manning on his team, I'm sure he could create a more than competent playbook around their skill set.

But there's a difference between what Kelly can do and what he wants to do. He had inordinate success at Oregon running a spread option attack that, at its best, utilizes quarterback runs (and threats to run). The NFL last year was a proving ground for those ideas, where zone read and option concepts worked at the highest level for playoff teams like the Redskins, Seahawks, and 49ers. If Kelly is going to build the best offense he can, why wouldn't he pursue a similar path, one that he has already won with? Why would he shackle himself to a quarterback like (the still unproven) Foles, who would instantly take away an entire dimension of the offense?

Fans can cling to his comments if they want, but Kelly's actions speak louder. Re-signing Michael Vick isn't my favorite piece of news. And the rumored imminent signing of Dennis Dixon won't solve any quarterback problems. But both moves suggest that Kelly isn't content with going forward with Foles, as much as he may like him as a person and a (limited) player. He needs to install his own offense with players who can run it. Neither eliminating quarterback runs from the playbook, nor installing a completely different package for the backup is an attractive option. To that end, I think there's a good chance the Eagles will trade Nick Foles this offseason -- or at least they should seriously consider it.

Foles is cheap and has some upside potential. He showed flashes at the end of last season that may or may not indicate he has a future as a starter in the NFL. That's not an insignificant asset. But if the Andy Reid era taught us anything, it's that selling high on quarterbacks can be a winning strategy. If Foles isn't in the plans for Kelly's offense -- and there's little reason to think he is, barring an offseason jump to "elite" QB status -- now is the time to get some value in return that can help the team. Stop clinging to Foles and start looking at potential draft picks in 2013 and 2014 who actually fit the system.

It's great that Kelly can adapt his offense to the personnel. But to do so in the extreme is foolhardy. Don't take away one of Kelly's best attributes, especially in a league that's already trending in that direction. If a running quarterback can help make the offense more explosive, we should all be in favor of that. End of story.

Photo from Getty.

Vick Re-Works Deal to Compete for Starting Job

The Eagles announced Monday that they've re-signed Michael Vick to what amounts to a one-year deal. Reports suggest he can make up to $10 million, although that likely includes some questionable performance bonuses. Quick thoughts on the news:

• Even the Eagles' website says Vick is only going to "compete" for the job. This is not any indication that he will be starting week one.
• That said, I don't think Chip Kelly bothers keeping Vick unless he is seriously considering him as a bridge candidate to get the Eagles to their QBOTF. Moreover, it indicates that -- despite Kelly's pleading to the contrary -- he does want a mobile quarterback running his offense, even if that player is 33 years old.
• Nick Foles is on the trading block. If Kelly thought the immobile Foles was a great candidate for the job, he wouldn't have re-signed Vick. And if Foles isn't in the long or short term plans, it's time to see what you can get for him on the open market. The Andy Reid era taught us that it's profitable to sell high on quarterbacks. With a weak draft class this year, maybe Foles pulls you a late second or early third round pick.
• Nothing about this move should make anyone mad. If Vick is less expensive, it's much easier to keep him around. That said, there's greater downside with Vick than other candidates. At best he plays well, stealing time from your draft pick and winning games that don't mean anything. And if he doesn't play well or gets benched for a younger guy? Vick has never been happy as a backup.
• There must not have been much interest for Vick in the rest of the NFL, or his agent never would have let him take a pay cut.

The Eagles' Quarterback Calendar

One of the most intriguing areas to watch this offseason will be the Eagles' maneuvering to find their 2013 quarterback. To that end, there's a clear month-by-month path that they have to undertake -- and it begins next week. 

February 6: If Michael Vick remains on the roster after this date, $3 million of his salary automatically becomes guaranteed. That makes the 6th the first important marker in the Eagles' decision-making process. Do they keep Vick, absorbing the contract hit because his athleticism may still be the best option for Chip Kelly's offense?

That's unlikely. Vick still has great mobility and a rocket arm, but his decision-making, despite a few years of tutoring from Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg, is questionable. Moreover, even if you can keep Vick happy and teach him a new offense, the upside is limited. He still wants to start, but will turn 33 before training camp with significant wear and tear on his body. At best you're buying a stop gap option, and that doesn't seem worth the $3 million guarantee. Expect the Eagles to sever ties with Vick after the Super Bowl.

[Update: As Sam Lynch points out, there is also the possibility that Vick and the team renegotiate his contract to avoid the guarantee. Not sure that's likely, but it's another outcome.]

March 12: Free agency begins. Unfortunately, there aren't many quarterbacks out there of note. Still, the Eagles should be dipping their toes into this pool if they let Vick walk. Players like Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Moore, and Jason Campbell are best suited to a backup role, but they might rather get a shot of competition in Philadelphia than automatically sit on the bench. Are you scraping the bottom of the barrel here? Sure. But every team needs depth and competition at the QB spot, and these options aren't going to be expensive. Maybe you get away without signing someone if you think Trent Edwards can adapt.

April 1: The only potential free agent who actually may be able to start is Alex Smith, currently under contract with the Super Bowl-bound 49ers. Smith, according to reports, has a contract clause that kicks in on April 1st that makes his entire $7.5 million salary guaranteed. San Francisco certainly isn't going to pay that, so they will look for suitors before having to cut him outright.

The Smith case will be interesting to watch because of the multitude of factors at play. The 49ers have to trade him in the month of March, or else cut him. They have little leverage unless multiple bidders step up. The question is, who would bid highly for Smith? At first glance, there are seven teams who will be in the Franchise QB hunt this offseason: Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Arizona. Most of them are in rebuilding phases where buying a soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback isn't on the agenda. Plus, John Harbaugh and the 49ers haven't exactly treated Smith like a franchise guy. They openly flirted with Peyton Manning, then benched Smith in the middle of his best season for an unproven second-year player. That doesn't seem like a quarterback in whom you want to invest.

If I were the Eagles, I would part with a 2013 late round pick or a conditional selection in 2014 based on playing time for Smith. Certainly if the 49ers cut him, you have to investigate. He's no great quarterback, but competence and a dash of athleticism could still be valuable.

April 25-27: The NFL draft. If the Eagles handled free agency properly, they should have Nick Foles and at least one other potential starter (or at worst, a fair backup) at this point. You never want to enter the draft with a glaring need, especially at quarterback, or other teams will use that knowledge to their advantage. Plus, you just can't count on getting the guy you want.

Unfortunately, the Eagles (and other teams) are shackled with a poor class of quarterbacks. It's even poorer when you look for guys who could fit Chip Kelly's system. The order of all of these players is still being sorted out, but from what I've been reading, there are only a couple that really interest me. In the first round, Geno Smith out of West Virginia could be an option. No one thinks he's the second coming of RGIII, but he had a lengthy, productive college career throwing from the pocket and has some mobility to boot. Smith also seems likely to score highly on the Football Outsiders Lewin Forecast. 

While first round picks are less expensive than they once were, the Eagles shouldn't reach for Smith with the fourth overall pick unless they're sure he can be an elite guy. A later round option is EJ Manuel, the Florida State quarterback who was just named Most Outstanding Player at the Senior Bowl. Here's what Mike Tanier said about him last week:

Manuel is impressive on film and when discussing his game. He is not nearly as impressive when standing in a pocket and distributing passes in a stripped-down game plan. He has the size coaches covet (“He looks like a tight end out there,” Detroit Lions/South Squad coach Jim Schwartz said) but his best bet will be to follow the route of Wilson: earn a mid-round selection and find a coach amenable to his playing style -- perhaps Chip Kelly, who recruited Manuel out of high school and now coaches the Eagles.

Sounds promising. The nice thing about Manuel is that he potentially fits Kelly's style, and also wouldn't cost a top pick. Consensus suggests he's more of a 3rd-5th round prospect (at least, before his Senior Bowl performance). At that low risk, I'd draft Manuel in a heartbeat. Let him compete for the job in an up-tempo spread offense like he's used to. If it works out, maybe you've caught something similar to Russel Wilson. If not, move on without any huge cost.

July 22: Training camp will start sometime at the end of July. This is when the real competition begins between free agents, rookies, and the incumbent Foles. One note about Foles: I don't have anything against him, but he's essentially the fall back option here. He's cheap and has shown some skills. Don't hand him anything. Let Foles prove that he deserves to start -- and that he can compensate for his lack of running skills.

April 24-26 (2014): I've discussed before how the best way to find a franchise quarterback is to keep throwing them at the wall until one sticks. The general outline of pairing Foles with a rookie and a veteran free agent seems like the best way to pursue that path this year. But the nice thing is that you're not wedded to anyone long term. If none of those options work this time, you start over again. Next year's draft could be loaded with talented, athletic quarterbacks like Logan Thomas, Tahj Boyd, Teddy Bridgewater, and Johnny Manziel. When at first you don't succeed: try, try again.

Photo from Getty.

The Chip Kelly Era Begins

I'll put it right out there. I have no idea if Chip Kelly is going to succeed. The odds are stacked against any coach who doesn't have NFL experience. But, then again, they're stacked against the ones who do as well. Most head coaches don't last more than four years. 

To that end, I'm happy because whether or not he succeeds, Kelly is going to make things exciting in Philly. This is going to be the most exciting offseason in decades, as we anticipate new schemes and a revamped training routine. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Kelly was the smartest coach in college football. Maybe not the best recruiter or the best motivator or the one with the best NFL credentials, but the Eagles just went out and brought one of the brightest football minds in to run the organization. I can get behind that decision in a big way, win or lose.

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Thank goodness we're done with this coaching search, if only so we don't have to hear another beat reporter on Twitter complain about how tedious it's been for them. Give me a break, guys.

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Filling out a staff is the top priority for any head coach, but it will be especially important for Kelly. He needs assistants who can implement his unique system, not ones stuck in their own ways of teaching. Yet he also needs assistants who have lots of NFL experience, since Kelly himself has none.

Derrick Gunn reports that University of Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is at the top of Kelly's list to run the Eagles defense. With top talent at his disposal at Georgia for the last three seasons, Grantham put together highly-ranked defenses. Before that he was an assistant in the NFL for 11 seasons, including three as the Cleveland Browns coordinator (with poor results). Interestingly enough, from 1996 to 1998, Grantham served as Nick Saban's defensive line coach at Michigan State. He employs the 3-4 defense, a change that would require some serious personnel changes in Philly -- not that those aren't necessary anyway. 

Another name that has popped up in the rumor mill: Mark Whipple, most recently the quarterbacks coach for the Cleveland Browns. Whipple coached at New Hampshire around the time Kelly played there, and was known for running wide-open spread passing attacks at the college level. He was also an offensive assistant in Philadelphia from 2007-2008, and Derek Sarley wrote a hopeful profile of him back then.

Other NFL assistants Kelly has coached with in the past include Pete Carmichael (OC, Saints) and Jack Bicknell Jr. (OL, Chiefs). Of course, he may also recruit a few Oregon coaches to make the NFL leap with him.

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Come on, Jon Gruden, you know you want to come back to Philly to be Kelly's offensive coordinator.

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Hiring Kelly was also a stick in the eye of a lot of naysayers. First, Joe Banner, who has trashed Eagles executives since he left and engaged in his own highly public pursuit of Kelly. The fact that his former protege Howie Roseman and (former?) friend Jeff Lurie beat him is wicked karma. Second, what about all those national reporters who attacked the Eagles organization for being unable to get a top coach? Jason LaCanfora said that Roseman is "drunk with power" and that his presence ruined any chance of Kelly coming to Philly. Since Roseman's persistent recruiting was actually key to Kelly leaving Oregon, LaCanfora is eating his words now.

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Interesting nugget about Kelly's version of "complete control" from Jeff McLane's story:

Kelly can be a control freak, two sources close to the coach said. But he is selective over the things he wants to control. Kelly will want little interference over how he coaches his team. He will want to decide on the strength and conditioning program. He will obsess over details as minor as what kind of thigh pads the players wear. As one source said, "He will turn that place upside down. But he only wants extreme control in certain areas."

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The quarterback question is huge going forward. In some ways, Kelly's Oregon offense decreased emphasis on the position. For example, the team averaged 53 rushes vs. only 29 pass attempts per game in 2012. Kelly cycled through four different quarterbacks without a drop-off in offensive production. Still, this is one of the trends I would be most skeptical about him being able to continue in the pros. The NFL is a passing league, and teams without top quarterbacks are relegated to also-rans.

So does Kelly have his quarterback of the future on the roster right now? I doubt it. He may be able to adjust the offense to accommodate Nick Foles, but I see little reason to install the Kelly offense only to deprive it of one of its best weapons -- the running quarterback. Plus, as I've written before, we don't have any idea yet if Foles is even worth changing an offense for. He's still unproven as a long term option.

Michael Vick certainly seems like he was created to run Kelly's offense, at least based on his athletic gifts. But at 33, he's not an option beyond a year or two -- and he may be too old to learn a completely different offense anyway. Plus there's the situation regarding his contract. No way he returns to the Eagles at all unless he accepts a pay cut. Still, I think if Kelly wants to try him out, there's some upside with Vick.

Other than those two, you have to start looking at trades, free agency, and the draft. Alex Smith might be an option. He's an efficient, if not explosive, passer and still retains some of the athleticism that allowed him to run for over 1000 yards in college. West Virginia's Geno Smith may be available at the fourth overall pick. He's a mobile QB, if not a running one. EJ Manuel out of Florida State may be a later round option.

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I love that there's a headline on Philly.com Sports right now that reads "Too soon to judge Kelly." I'm glad we're all waiting until at least his second week.

Photo from Getty.

Howie's Saying The Right Things About Nick Foles

Howie Roseman, as reported by Sheil Kapadia:

“Nick [Foles] has a lot of promise, but I think the analogy I would draw there is that when you watch baseball, you see sometimes young starting pitchers go through the lineup one time and get them out pretty quickly because there’s no book on them. Or play their opponents, and the same thing. They go through the first time pretty well. So we’ve got to just make sure that we’re evaluating Nick, the full package of Nick. He’s got a lot of good tools. But that and the coach are obviously the two most important things for the franchise.”

Bingo.